NATIONAL BANK OF POLAND. No. 40

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1 NATIONAL BANK OF POLAND WORKING PAPER No. 40 Expected and actual impact of EMU on growth, public finances and structural reforms in the euro area Konrad Szeląg Warsaw, January 2007

2 Design: Oliwka s.c. Layout and print: NBP Printshop Published by: National Bank of Poland Department of Information and Public Relations Warszawa, 11/21 Świętokrzyska Street phone: , fax Copyright by the National Bank of Poland, 2007

3 Contents Contents Abstract Introduction EMU and the overall performance of the euro-area economy Macroeconomic expectations vs. achievements related to EMU Growth performance in the euro area Public finances before and after the introduction of the euro Budgetary positions Public debt (government debt) Long-term sustainability of public finances Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro Integration and reforms of financial and product markets Financial markets Product and service markets Labour market reforms and performance Labour market performance in the EU Intensity of labour market reforms in EMU Labour market flexibility in the euro area Structural reforms a key challenge for the EU economy Concluding remarks References Related EU documents and legal acts WORKING PAPER No. 40

4 Tables, figures and boxes Tables, figures and boxes Table 1.1. Recent economic forecasts for the euro area as regards noninflationary growth Table 2.1. General government deficit / surplus in the euro-area countries ( ) Table 2.2. General government budgetary positions in the euro area ( ) Table 2.3. Budget balances in the euro-area countries ( ) Table 2.4. Government debt in the euro-area countries ( ) Table 2.5. Projected evolution of debt levels in the euro area up to 2050 (in % of GDP) Table 2.6. The structural primary balance and the required primary balance in the euro area Table 2.7. Overall classification of the Member States risks to their public finances sustainability Table 3.1. Selected labour market indicators for the euro area (in comparison with the EU, the US and Japan) Table 3.2. Potential welfare effects of coordinated/uncoordinated structural reforms and/or budgetary consolidation in the euro area (GDP target) Figure 1.1. Potential impact of the ageing of populations on growth ( ) Figure 2.1. General government deficit / surplus in the euro area ( ) Figure 2.2. Fiscal stance and cyclical conditions in the euro area and in the EU ( ) Figure 2.3. Government debt in the euro area ( ) Figure 2.4. Projected changes in the size and age structure of the EU-25 population Figure 2.5. Potential public debt developments in the EU (projected up to 2050) Figure 2.6. Long-term projections of public debt reduction in the most indebted Member States of the euro area Figure 3.1. Trade effects of the introduction of the euro N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

5 Tables, figures and boxes Figure 3.2. FDI flows in the euro-area Member States ( ) Figure 3.3. Indicators of product market regulation (1998 vs. 2003) Figure 3.4. Progress towards the Lisbon and Stockholm employment targets.. 66 Figure 3.5. Projected employment rates and Lisbon targets in the EU Figure 3.6. Intensity and timing of labour market reforms in EU, EMU and OECD countries ( ) Figure 3.7. Sum of tax rates on work (from early retirement age to 69) Figure 3.8. Frequency of structural reforms before and after the Stage Two of EMU Figure 3.9. Labour and product market policies in OECD countries Figure Older people as the majority of voters in selected countries Box 3.1. Integration of financial markets in the EU: key measures Box 3.2. Types of product market regulations WORKING PAPER No. 40 5

6 Abbreviations Abbreviations Member States of the euro area (as of 2006): BE Belgium DE Germany EL Greece ES Spain FR France IE Ireland IT Italy LU Luxembourg NL Netherlands AT Austria PT Portugal FI Finland Member States not belonging to the euro area (as of 2006): - new Member States: CZ Czech Republic EE Estonia CY Cyprus LV Latvia LT Lithuania HU Hungary MT Malta PL Poland SI Slovenia SK Slovakia - others: DK Denmark SE Sweden UK United Kingdom Other countries or groups of countries (as of 2006): EU-25, EU European Union (consisting of 25 Member States) EU-15 old Member States (15 Member States belonging to the EU before 1 May 2004) EU-12 euro area (consisting of 12 Member States) EU-10 new Member States (10 Member States that joined the EU on 1 May 2004) JP Japan US, USA United States of America 6 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

7 Abbreviations Other abbreviations: ALMP active labour market policy BEPGs Broad Economic Policy Guidelines CAB cyclically-adjusted balance CABB cyclically-adjusted budget balance CAPB cyclically-adjusted primary balance ECB European Central Bank EDP excessive deficit procedure EGs Employment Guidelines EMI European Monetary Institute EMU Economic and Monetary Union EPC Economic Policy Committee EPL employment protection legislation ERM Exchange Rate Mechanism ESA European System of Accounts ESCB European System of Central Banks FSAP Financial Services Action Plan GDP gross domestic product GNI gross national income GNP gross national product ICT information and communication technology IG Integrated Guidelines IMF International Monetary Fund IT information technology MTO medium-term (budgetary) objective NRP National Reform Programme OCA optimum currency area OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development PPS purchasing power standards RCAP Risk Capital Action Plan R&D research and development SGP Stability and Growth Pact SMEs small and medium-sized enterprises SMP Single Market Programme UMTS Universal Mobile Telecommunications System WORKING PAPER No. 40 7

8 Abstract Abstract 8 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

9 Introduction Introduction WORKING PAPER No. 40 9

10 Introduction ą 10 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

11 EMU and the overall performance of the euro-area economy 1 EMU and the overall performance of the euro-area economy 1 WORKING PAPER No

12 EMU and the overall performance of the euro-area economy 1 12 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

13 EMU and the overall performance of the euro-area economy 1 WORKING PAPER No

14 EMU and the overall performance of the euro-area economy 1 14 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

15 EMU and the overall performance of the euro-area economy ⅓ 1 WORKING PAPER No

16 EMU and the overall performance of the euro-area economy 1 16 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

17 EMU and the overall performance of the euro-area economy 1 WORKING PAPER No

18 EMU and the overall performance of the euro-area economy 1 18 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

19 EMU and the overall performance of the euro-area economy 1 ą WORKING PAPER No

20 Public finances before and after introduction of the euro 2 2 Public finances before and after the introduction of the euro 20 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

21 Public finances before and after introduction of the euro 2 WORKING PAPER No

22 Public finances before and after introduction of the euro 2 22 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

23 Public finances before and after introduction of the euro 2 WORKING PAPER No

24 Public finances before and after introduction of the euro 2 24 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

25 Public finances before and after introduction of the euro 2 WORKING PAPER No

26 Public finances before and after introduction of the euro 2 26 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

27 Public finances before and after introduction of the euro 2 WORKING PAPER No

28 Public finances before and after introduction of the euro 2 28 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

29 Public finances before and after introduction of the euro 2 WORKING PAPER No

30 Public finances before and after introduction of the euro 2 30 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

31 Public finances before and after introduction of the euro 2 WORKING PAPER No

32 Public finances before and after introduction of the euro 2 32 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

33 Public finances before and after introduction of the euro 2 WORKING PAPER No

34 Public finances before and after introduction of the euro 2 34 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

35 Public finances before and after introduction of the euro 2 WORKING PAPER No

36 Public finances before and after introduction of the euro 2 36 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

37 Public finances before and after introduction of the euro 2 WORKING PAPER No

38 Public finances before and after introduction of the euro 2 38 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

39 Public finances before and after introduction of the euro 2 WORKING PAPER No

40 Public finances before and after introduction of the euro 2 40 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

41 Public finances before and after introduction of the euro 2 WORKING PAPER No

42 Public finances before and after introduction of the euro 2 42 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

43 Public finances before and after introduction of the euro 2 WORKING PAPER No

44 Public finances before and after introduction of the euro 2 44 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

45 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 WORKING PAPER No

46 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 46 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

47 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 WORKING PAPER No

48 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 48 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

49 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 WORKING PAPER No

50 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 50 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

51 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 WORKING PAPER No

52 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 52 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

53 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 WORKING PAPER No

54 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 54 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

55 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 WORKING PAPER No

56 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 56 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

57 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 WORKING PAPER No

58 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 58 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

59 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 WORKING PAPER No

60 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 60 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

61 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 WORKING PAPER No

62 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 62 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

63 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 WORKING PAPER No

64 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 64 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

65 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 WORKING PAPER No

66 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 66 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

67 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 WORKING PAPER No

68 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 68 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

69 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 WORKING PAPER No

70 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 70 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

71 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 WORKING PAPER No

72 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 72 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

73 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 WORKING PAPER No

74 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 74 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

75 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro ą 3 WORKING PAPER No

76 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 76 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

77 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 WORKING PAPER No

78 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 78 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

79 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 WORKING PAPER No

80 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 80 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

81 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 WORKING PAPER No

82 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 82 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

83 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 WORKING PAPER No

84 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 84 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

85 Structural reforms and market integration before and after the introduction of the euro 3 WORKING PAPER No

86 Concluding remarks Concluding remarks 86 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

87 Concluding remarks WORKING PAPER No

88 Concluding remarks 88 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

89 References References WORKING PAPER No

90 References 90 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

91 References WORKING PAPER No

92 References 92 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

93 References ą ą ą ą WORKING PAPER No

94 Related EU documents and legal acts Related EU documents and legal acts 94 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

95 Related EU documents and legal acts WORKING PAPER No

96 Related EU documents and legal acts 96 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

97 Related EU documents and legal acts WORKING PAPER No

98 Related EU documents and legal acts 98 N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d

99 Related EU documents and legal acts WORKING PAPER No

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