An integrated update of Vietnam FMCG market

Transcription

1 An integrated update of Vietnam FMCG market 1 weeks period ending March 15 (1 w/e P3/15) Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam Previous Start 1

2 KEY INDICATORS GDP growth of Q1 at 6%, the highest growth for the same period in the past 5 years. CPI eases mostly due to cheaper oil price. FMCG TRENDS Minor improvements are observed in both Urban & Rural but the recovery is not firm. HOT CATEGORIES RETAIL LANDSCAPE SPOTLIGHT ON VN Liquid Detergent in Urban and Soya Milk in Rural Hyper/Supermarkets gain back momentum in Urban. In Rural, Street Shops hold strong while Wet Markets slow down. Tet 15: Despite some slowdown compared to Tet 14, Tet this year maintains a high growth of 66% compared to pre-tet period.

3 KEY INDICATORS FMCG TRENDS HOT CATEGORIES RETAIL LANDSCAPE SPOTLIGHT ON VIETNAM +6.% Q1 15 vs. YA +5.1% Q1 14 vs. YA GDP +.9% Mar 15 vs. YA +4.4% Mar 14 vs. YA CPI FMCG GROWTH URBAN 4 CITIES Value Growth % Volume Growth % MAT P3'13 vs YA MAT P3'14 vs YA MAT P3'15 vs YA RURAL Value Growth % Volume Growth % Closing the first quarter of 15, Vietnam s economy expands at an annual rate of 6%, the highest growth rate recorded for the same period in the last 5 years. Meanwhile, Consumer Price Index continues to ease down and remains stable mostly due to cheaper oil price. In the long run, Urban market is suffering from continued slowdown in FMCG consumption while Rural experiences a slight drop in growth but remains strong. Source: GSO Kantar Worldpanel Households Panel Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam Total FMCG excluding Gift 3

4 Q1'13 Q'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q4'1 Q1'13 Q'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 KEY INDICATORS FMCG TRENDS HOT CATEGORIES RETAIL LANDSCAPE SPOTLIGHT ON VIETNAM FMCG 1 WEEKLY YEAR-ON-YEAR CHANGE (%) Urban 4 Cities % 1-1 Rural +.% In short term, subtle improvements are observed in both Urban & Rural but the recovery is not firm In short term, Urban market has witnessed some improvements since late 14 and now registered its growth at 1.% compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, the slowdown in Rural has just started to fade with value growth now anchored at %. % change Avg. Price paid* Value Volume** *: To calculate FMCG price paid change, we calculate how much price contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value YA **: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume) Source: Kantar Worldpanel Households Panel Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam - Total FMCG excluding Gift 4

5 KEY INDICATORS FMCG TRENDS HOT CATEGORIES RETAIL LANDSCAPE SPOTLIGHT ON VIETNAM URBAN 4 CITIES VALUE CHANGE (%) VOLUME* CHANGE (%) Total FMCG Dairy Beverages Packaged Foods Personal care Home care RURAL Total FMCG Dairy Beverages Packaged Foods Personal care Home care In Urban, Home Care and Beverages are leading the growth while Rural sees the rapid expansion of Dairy products at 1% in value and 13% in volume. *: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume) Source: Kantar Worldpanel Households Panel Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam Total FMCG excluding Gift 1 w/e P3/15 vs. YA 5

6 KEY INDICATORS FMCG TRENDS HOT CATEGORIES RETAIL LANDSCAPE SPOTLIGHT ON VIETNAM URBAN 4 CITIES VOL CHANGE % +% LIQUID DETERGENT Penetration Incremental of 41, households Average volume per buyer Increase volume purchase by 1% +1.5pt +1% SOYA MILK RURAL VOL CHANGE % +7% +3.1pt Penetration Incremental of 6, households +9% Average volume per buyer Increase volume purchase by 9% Among all FMCG categories, Liquid Detergent has recorded the most outstanding performance with % growth in volume. This fabric care category has recruited new 41, households and managed to achieve a 1% increase in average household consumption. In Rural, Soya Milk enjoys 7% growth thanks to an incremental recruitment of 6, households and 9% increase in average volume consumption per household. Source: Kantar Worldpanel Households Panel Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam Total FMCG excluding Gift 1 w/e P3/15 vs. YA 6

7 KEY INDICATORS FMCG TRENDS HOT CATEGORIES RETAIL LANDSCAPE SPOTLIGHT ON VIETNAM Urban 4 Key Cities % Value Share w/e P w/e P w/e P3 15 Street Shops Wet Market Modern Trade Specialty Direct Sales Others Street shops Wet market Modern trade > Hyper/Supermarket > Ministores 1 w/e P3 14 vs. YA 1 w/e P3 15 vs. YA In terms of retail landscape, Hyper/Supermarkets are gaining back momentum, posting growth of 7% compared to the same period last year. Rural w/e P w/e P w/e P3 15 Street shops Wet market Modern trade Growth -.5% -.5% < Growth < 5% 5% Growth 15% Growth >15% In Rural, Street Shops are holding strong while Wet Markets are slowing down. Source: Kantar Worldpanel Households Panel Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam Total FMCG excluding Gift 7

8 KEY INDICATORS FMCG TRENDS HOT CATEGORIES RETAIL LANDSCAPE SPOTLIGHT ON VIETNAM % VALUE GROWTH URBAN 4 KEY CITIES RURAL Total FMCG Dairy Beverages 13 9 Tet Period: 4 weeks before the 1st day of Lunar New Year (i.e. 4 weeks ending //15 for Tet 15 and 4 weeks ending //14 for Tet 14) Packaged Foods Personal care Pre-Tet period: 4 weeks before Tet period (i.e. 4 weeks ending 5/1/15 for Tet 15 and 4 weeks ending 5/1/14 for Tet 14) Home care 3 Tet '14 vs. Pre-Tet Tet '15 vs. Pre-Tet EARLIER TET SHOPPING IN URBAN weeks before Tet 4 weeks before Tet HYPER/SUPERMARKETS ARE GAINING BETTER SHARE IN TET % Value Share in Tet Period (Urban 4 Cities, excl. gifts) Provision Store Wet Market 7 9 Ma & Pa Hyper/Supermarket GIFTS ARE MORE AND MORE IMPORTANT IN TET % Value Share of Gifts TOP EXPANDING GIFTS IN TET by incremental penetration of Gifts Tet 15 vs. Tet 14 Tet 13 Tet 14 Tet 15 URBAN 4 CITIES RURAL BISCUITS +4. pts in Urban +4.1 pts in Rural CSD +4.1 pts in Urban +3. pts in Rural BEER +.9 pts in Urban +3. pts in Rural Source: Kantar Worldpanel Household Panel - Urban 4 Cities & Rural Vietnam FMCG Including Gifts

9 About Kantar Worldpanel Kantar Worldpanel is the world leader in consumer knowledge and insights based on continuous consumer panels. Its High Definition Inspiration approach combines market monitoring, advanced analytics and tailored market research solutions to deliver both the big picture and the fine detail that inspire successful actions by its clients. Kantar Worldpanel s expertise about what people buy or use and why has become the market currency for brand owners, retailers, market analysts and government organisations globally. With over 6 years experience, a team of 3,5, and services covering more than 55 countries directly or through partners, Kantar Worldpanel delivers High Definition Inspiration in fields as diverse as FMCG, impulse products, fashion, baby, telecommunications and entertainment, among many others. For further information, please visit us at Contact us Nguyen Dang Thanh Thuy Senior Marketing Executive tthuy.nguyen@kantarworldpanel.com tel: ext. 61 fax: mob: +4 () Kantar Worldpanel Vietnam 5 Vo Van Tan St., Dist. 3, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam KWP_VN Kantar Worldpanel Vietnam