THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN 20 AUGUST 2014

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1 THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN AUGUST 1

2 Global growth GDP growth in different regions for 1. Percent. IMF projections Sources: IMF and Norges Bank

3 Russia: Lower growth prospects and sanctions GDP growth forecasts for Russia in 1 published at different points in time 3 1 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 1 Jul 1 Source: Consensus Economics 3 1 The EU and US applied new sanctions against Russia at the end of July Sanctions applied to entire sectors, such as oil and defence Restrictions on Russian banks access to European and US capital markets Russia stops importing various goods from the US, EU, Canada and Norway 3

4 China: Surge in debt lower housing investment Percentage point change in private debt/gdp around the financial crisis and past five years in China US ( - 13) Euro area (1-13) UK (1-13) China (8-13) Housing starts and sales: Private dwellings and office buildings. 1-month change Housing starts (m²) Sales (m²) (8 years before crisis) (8 years after crisis) Sources: World Bank, BIS, IMF, Thomson Reuters, CEIC and Norges Bank

5 US: Pick-up in second quarter Employment 1) and retail trade ) Housing market 3) Employment (left-hand scale) Retail sales (right-hand scale) ) «Non-farm payroll». In millions of persons ) CPI-deflated. Seasonally adjusted. 1-month change 3) Index. Jan. 1=1. Monthly figures. Source: Thomson Reuters Existing-home sales New home sales Housing starts

6 6 Euro area: Weak and divergent developments GDP growth Four-quarter change. Percent Consumer price inflation 1-month change. Percent Germany Italy Euro area Spain -1 Source: Thomson Reuters 6

7 Euro area: Unusually pronounced fall in investment Developments in investment around economic downturns 1) Year ) The investment level is set at 1 at the through of the economic downturn. The 13 investment level was around percent lower than in 9 Source: European Commission 7

8 Long-term yields continue to fall Selected 1-year yields. Percent Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 1 Apr 1 Jul 1 Source: Bloomberg UK US Germany Japan Norway

9 External influences on the Norwegian economy Demand abroad Norwegian exports Key rates abroad Exchange rate Inflation abroad Imported inflation 9

10 Weaker krone Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-) 1) ) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate Source: Norges Bank

11 Moderate growth Volume. Annual change. Percent GDP Mainland Norway Projection in MPR /1 Average growth Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 11

12 Low investment Volume. Annual change. Percent Average Projections in MPR / Private consumption Corporate investment Housing investment Petroleum investment Exports mainland Norway GDP mainland Norway -6 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 1

13 Petroleum investment slows In billions of NOK. Constant 11 prices 1 1 Projection MPR / Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 13

14 Prospects for stronger mainland exports Four-quarter growth. Percent Export market growth Export growth Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

15 Seafood is an important export item Exports of farmed salmon. Billions of NOK. Price per kilo fresh farmed salmon. NOK 7 6 Russia, l.h.s. EU, l.h.s. Other countries, l.h.s. Export price, r.h.s. 3 Seafood as a percentage of Norwegian exports 13% Sources: Statistics Norway 1

16 Renewed increase in saving ratio Annual rise. Percent Household consumption Household disposable income Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 16

17 Renewed rise in house prices Twelve-month change. Percent. January 3 July Sources: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no and Eiendomsverdi 17

18 3 1 Stable unemployment Percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted Employment has increased By country background. Accumulated since 8. In thousands of employed persons Other countries Norway Total Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV) and Norges Bank 18

19 Monetary policy - Criteria for an appropriate interest rate path 1. The inflation target is achieved. The inflation targeting regime is flexible stability in output and employment 3. Monetary policy is robust financial imbalances uncertainty about state of the economy, driving forces and function 19

20 Inflation close to. percent Actual and projections in Monetary Policy Report /1. Four-quarter change. Percent CPI-ATE¹ Projection ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

21 Continued low key policy rate Actual and projections in MPR /1. Percent % % 7% 9% Source: Norges Bank 1

22 Total credit as a share of GDP Mainland Norway. Percent. Q Q 1 Crises Credit/GDP Sources: Statistics Norway, IMF and Norges Bank

23 Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio requirements in the new regulatory framework Maximum countercyclical buffer Countercyclical buffer Buffer for systemically important banks Other requirements Syv største norske banker des des des 1 1. Jul 1 1. Jul Jul Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank 3

24 Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio requirements in the new regulatory framework Maximum countercyclical buffer Countercyclical buffer Buffer for systemically important banks Other requirements Seven largest Norwegian banks Dec Dec Dec Jul 1 1. Jul Jul Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

25 Two instruments and two targets The operational target of monetary policy is low and stable inflation The countercyclical capital buffer aims to bolster banks resilience to an impending downturn

26 THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN AUGUST 1

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