PEGAS NONWOVENS S.A. Team H January 28, 2015
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1 PEGAS NONWOVENS S.A. Team H January 28, 2015
2 Investment Highlights 766 CZK TARGET PRICE BUY Recommendation Non-cyclical and growing industry 19% upside 642 CZK December 18, 2014 Market position and solid customer base Good growth prospects Sound financials
3 Business Description
4 Introduction Leading nonwoven textile producer in the Europe, Middle East and Africa market Revenue Breakdown by Product (% of sales 2013) Hygiene sector: baby diapers, feminine and adult incontinence products Market Profile (ticker PGSNsp.PR) Closing price 18/12/2014 (CZK) week price range (CZK) Average daily volume 6,191 As % of shares outstanding % Free float 100% Market capitalization (CZK mil) 5, Hygiene Commodity Hygiene Technologically Advanced Non-hygiene
5 Business Description Annual revenue (EUR thousand) New production lines timeline
6 & Competitive
7 traits Non-cyclicality Porter s Five Forces Model Threat of New Entrants Growth potential High barriers to entry Threat of Substitute Products Bargaining Power of Suppliers Low threat of substitutes Bargaining Power of Customers Competitive Rivalry in the
8 Competitive Advantage 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Investment in Research & Development (EUR thousands) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Electricity 5% Polymers 75% Staff costs 5% Depreciation 7% Others 6.5 % R&D 1.5% Technologically advanced, unique processes Superior quality Vertical integration of R&D
9 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Competitive Advantage Modernization of production lines Location of production sites 350, , , ,000 Changing revenue composition as a basis for growth 150, ,000 50,000 0 Standard textiles for hygiene products Light-weight + bico materials for hygiene Non-hygiene products
10 Costs and Customers in the Procter & Gamble partnership Recognition awards Multi-year contract on Egyptian production Mutual dependency Polymer granules as the main epense Strong relations with key large customers Others 22% Procter & Gamble 45% Cost composition (2013) Other 4 largest customers 33% Share of sales by customer (2013)
11
12 Discounted Cash Flow Key Assumptions Key drivers Growth in sales of special materials in hygiene (high-tech and ultra light-weight) 350, , , , , ,000 50, Increasing revenue per ton A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 0.5 Sales of special hygiene Sales of non-hygiene Sales of standard hygiene A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Revenue per ton (EUR thousands)
13 Discounted Cash Flow 747 CZK One-year target price Components of WACC Risk-free rate 4% Market risk premium 6.18% 45,000 40,000 Capital expenditures stabilization vs Revenue growth 25% 20% Beta 0.65 Error term ,000 30,000 15% 10% Cost of equity 13.99% 25,000 20,000 5% 0% Cost of debt 3.24% 15,000 10,000-5% -10% Corporate tax rate 19% 5, % -20% WACC 10.04% Capital expenditures (EUR thousand) Revenue growth
14 Multiples Price/Earnings EV/EBITDA Price/Book value CZK 778 CZK 764 CZK
15 Target Price EV/EBITDA Price/Book value Price/Earnings 766 CZK One-year target price 19% upside Discounted Cash Flow
16
17 EUR/CZK exchange rate January 28, 2014 January 27, , , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Strong forecasted revenue growth 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E EBITDA margin 21.7% 20.3% 19.4% 20.5% 19.6% 18.1% 16.6% 15.5% Net profit margin 8.4% 11.1% 0.7% 9.6% 9.6% 9.0% 8.4% 7.9% Operating profit margin 16.2% 14.1% 12.8% 14.7% 14.6% 13.5% 12.5% 11.6%
18 Decrease in long term debt levels Progressive dividend policy 165, % , % 155, % , , , % 250% 200% 150% , , % 50% , A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Long term debt Debt as % of EBITDA 0% A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Gross dividend (EUR/share)
19 Risk Analysis
20 Risk matrix
21 Key Customers and Costs Importance of the large corporate customers 100% 78% all customers 5 customers 45% 1 customer Composition of customers as % of sales (2013) Sensitivity of the target price to energy and staff costs
22 Expansion to Egypt: Upside Risk Upside scenario: annual revenue (EUR thousand) 827 CZK UPSIDE TARGET PRICE 766 CZK TARGET PRICE 19% upside 29% upside 642 CZK December 18, 2014
23
24 Competitive position location of production sites, innovation and quality, customer relations Strong performance financial performance, constant growth, dividend payouts traits non-cyclicality and growth BUY Expansion in Egypt
25 Thank you for your attention! Team H January 28, 2015
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