Q ICAEW Business Confidence Monitor results
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1 Q3 216 ICAEW Business Confidence Monitor results July 216
2 Outline 1. Confidence 2. GDP forecast 3. Trends in sales, domestic & export 4. Impact: skills, costs, capacity, profits & prices 5. Responses: investment, employment & pay 6. Confidence: sectors, regions & types of company 7. Trends: selected sectors 8. Summary Source: ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 211 Business Confidence Monitor
3 Outline 1. Confidence Source: ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 211 Business Confidence Monitor
4 26-Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-14 1-Feb-14 1-Mar-14 7-Apr-14 5-May-14 2-Jun-14 3-Jun Jul Aug Sep-14 2-Oct Nov Dec Jan-15 9-Feb-15 9-Mar-15 6-Apr-15 4-May-15 1-Jun Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-16 8-Feb-16 7-Mar-16 4-Apr-16 2-May-16 3-May Jun-16 Brexit was clearly a blow to confidence. There has been only a modest rebound. ICAEW Business Confidence Index, three week rolling trend Brexit Apr 27 - Jun23 Jun 24 - Jul Three weeks beginning
5 Q1 25 Q3 25 Q1 26 Q3 26 Q1 27 Q3 27 Q1 28 Q3 28 Q1 29 Q3 29 Q1 21 Q3 21 Q1 211 Q3 211 Q1 212 Q3 212 Q1 213 Q3 213 Q1 214 Q3 214 Q1 215 Q3 215 Q1 216 Q3 216 But confidence had been declining already (Q1 to Q2 down 1.6 points, Q2 to Q3 down 11. points). ICAEW UK Business Confidence Index
6 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q3 29 Q4 29 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 211 Q2 211 Q3 211 Q4 211 Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 212 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 More companies are less confident than more confident for the first time since Q Proportion of respondents that are more, less and as confident in economic prospects over the next 12 months as the past 12 8% Brexit Apr 27 - Jun23 Jun 24 - Jul 2 7% 6% More confident 31% 15% As confident 37% 29% Less confident 32% 56% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % More confident As confident Less confident
7 Outline 1. Confidence 2. GDP forecast Source: ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 211 Business Confidence Monitor
8 GDP growth projected to be just positive at +.1% in Q3, after +.6% in Q2. Quarter on quarter real GDP growth, per cent
9 Outline 1. Confidence 2. GDP forecast 3. Trends in sales, domestic & export Source: ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 211 Business Confidence Monitor
10 Q3 27 Q4 27 Q1 28 Q2 28 Q3 28 Q4 28 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q3 29 Q4 29 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 211 Q2 211 Q3 211 Q4 211 Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 212 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 Next 12 months * The slowdown in domestic sales growth may have come to a halt, although expectations are weaker than previously. Domestic sales, annual percentage change Brexit (next 12 months) Apr 27 - Jun23 Jun 24 - Jul 2 4.3% 3% Domestic sales * expectation
11 Q3 27 Q4 27 Q1 28 Q2 28 Q3 28 Q4 28 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q3 29 Q4 29 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 211 Q2 211 Q3 211 Q4 211 Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 212 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 Next 12 months * While export sales continue to grow at a very modest pace. Exports sales, annual percentage change Brexit (next 12 months) Apr 27 - Jun23 Jun 24 - Jul % 2.4% Exports * expectation
12 Q3 27 Q4 27 Q1 28 Q2 28 Q3 28 Q4 28 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q3 29 Q4 29 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 211 Q2 211 Q3 211 Q4 211 Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 212 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 Next 12 months * The economy has been more reliant on its domestic sales growth than export growth. Exports and domestic sales, annual percentage change Exports Domestic sales * expectation
13 Q3 27 Q4 27 Q1 28 Q2 28 Q3 28 Q4 28 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q3 29 Q4 29 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 211 Q2 211 Q3 211 Q4 211 Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 212 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 So overall sales growth remains subdued. Expectations are for less of a pick-up than previously, especially post-brexit. Sales volumes, annual percentage change Brexit (next 12 months) Apr 27 - Jun23 Jun 24 - Jul 2 4.6% 3.3% over last 12 months expected next 12 months
14 Outline 1. Confidence 2. GDP forecast 3. Trends in sales, domestic & export 4. Impact: skills, costs, capacity, profits & prices Source: ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 211 Business Confidence Monitor
15 Q2 28 Q3 28 Q4 28 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q3 29 Q4 29 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 211 Q2 211 Q3 211 Q4 211 Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 212 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 Problems with skill shortages and with staff turnover continue to diminish in significance, reflecting slow growth. Balance of companies reporting factors to be a greater challenge to business performance now than a year ago 3% Brexit 25% 2% 15% Apr 27 - Jun23 Jun 24 - Jul 2 Management 2% 13% Non- Management 21% 19% Staff turnover 2% 2% 1% 5% % Availability of management skills Staff turnover Availability of non-management skills
16 Q2 28 Q3 28 Q4 28 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q3 29 Q4 29 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 211 Q2 211 Q3 211 Q4 211 Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 212 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 And spare capacity has risen, for the same reason. Share of businesses operating at and below capacity 65% 6% 55% 5% 45% 4% 35% Brexit Apr 27 - Jun23 Jun 24 - Jul 2 Below capacity 53% 57% At capacity 43% 39% 3% Below capacity At capacity
17 Q3 27 Q4 27 Q1 28 Q2 28 Q3 28 Q4 28 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q3 29 Q4 29 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 211 Q2 211 Q3 211 Q4 211 Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 212 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 Companies are able to achieve almost no increases in selling prices (though they are hopeful that will change). Prices charged to customers, annual percentage change Brexit 2 Apr 27 - Jun23 Jun 24 - Jul 2 Last 12 months.4%.3% Next 12 months.9%.8% 1-1 over last 12 months expected next 12 months
18 Q3 27 Q4 27 Q1 28 Q2 28 Q3 28 Q4 28 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q3 29 Q4 29 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 211 Q2 211 Q3 211 Q4 211 Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 212 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 But bought-in cost inflation has picked-up, reflecting global prices. Input prices, annual percentage change 4 3 Brexit Apr 27 - Jun23 Jun 24 - Jul 2 Last 12 months 1.1%.9% Next 12 months 1.1% 1.2% 2 1 over last 12 months expected next 12 months
19 Q3 27 Q4 27 Q1 28 Q2 28 Q3 28 Q4 28 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q3 29 Q4 29 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 211 Q2 211 Q3 211 Q4 211 Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 212 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 Profits growth is very weak (3½% y/y), and below companies expectations and weaker, post Brexit. Gross profits, annual percentage change Brexit 8 6 Apr 27 - Jun23 Jun 24 - Jul 2 Last 12 months 3.1% 3% Next 12 months 4.6% 3% over last 12 months expected next 12 months
20 Outline 1. Confidence 2. GDP forecast 3. Trends in sales, domestic & export 4. Impact: skills, costs, capacity, profits & prices 5. Responses: investment, employment & pay Source: ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 211 Business Confidence Monitor
21 Q3 27 Q4 27 Q1 28 Q2 28 Q3 28 Q4 28 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q3 29 Q4 29 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 211 Q2 211 Q3 211 Q4 211 Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 212 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 Companies are planning to significantly reduce the growth in their spending on capital investment, to under 1%, y/y. Capital investment, annual percentage change Brexit Apr 27 - Jun23 Jun 24 - Jul 2 Last 12 months 2.4% 2.4% Next 12 months 1.4%.2% over last 12 months expected next 12 months
22 Q3 27 Q4 27 Q1 28 Q2 28 Q3 28 Q4 28 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q3 29 Q4 29 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 211 Q2 211 Q3 211 Q4 211 Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 212 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 Similarly they plan to increase R&D spending by less than 1% y/y, the lowest expected increase for four years. Research and development budgets, annual percentage change 4 3 Brexit Apr 27 - Jun23 Jun 24 - Jul 2 Last 12 months 1.7% 2.3% Next 12 months 1.1%.7% over last 12 months expected next 12 months
23 Q3 27 Q4 27 Q1 28 Q2 28 Q3 28 Q4 28 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q3 29 Q4 29 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 211 Q2 211 Q3 211 Q4 211 Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 212 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 And they plan only modest growth in spending on staff development with Brexit pushing it down markedly. Staff development budgets, annual percentage change Brexit Apr 27 - Jun23 Jun 24 - Jul 2 Last 12 months 1.9% 1.3% Next 12 months 1.5%.6% over last 12 months expected next 12 months
24 Q3 27 Q4 27 Q1 28 Q2 28 Q3 28 Q4 28 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q3 29 Q4 29 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 211 Q2 211 Q3 211 Q4 211 Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 212 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 Employment growth has continued to soften and Brexit has weakened expectations further. Employee numbers, annual percentage change Brexit Apr 27 - Jun23 Jun 24 - Jul 2 Last 12 months 1.8% 1.3% Next 12 months 1.9%.9% over last 12 months expected next 12 months
25 Q3 27 Q4 27 Q1 28 Q2 28 Q3 28 Q4 28 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q3 29 Q4 29 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 211 Q2 211 Q3 211 Q4 211 Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 212 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 Post-Brexit, expectations are for significantly lower wage growth. Average total salary, annual percentage change 6 5 Brexit Apr 27 - Jun23 Jun 24 - Jul 2 Last 12 months 2% 1.5% 4 Next 12 months 2% 1.2% over last 12 months expected next 12 months CPI inflation
26 Outline 1. Confidence 2. GDP forecast 3. Trends in sales, domestic & export 4. Impact: skills, costs, capacity, profits & prices 5. Responses: investment, employment & pay 6. Confidence: sectors, regions & types of company Source: ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 211 Business Confidence Monitor
27 The big confidence falls are not in Manufacturing, nor in Finance or Business services, but in Construction, Property & Transport. ICAEW UK Business Confidence Index * * = NA Services Retail & Wholesale Transport & Storage IT & Communications Q3 215 Q4 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 Banking, Finance & Insurance Property Business services
28 North West and Yorkshire & Humber show confidence holding up in the quarter but this conceals a big pre/post-brexit fall. ICAEW UK Business Confidence Index 3 UK AVERAGE London South East (excl London) South West East of England East Midlands West Midlands Q3 215 Q4 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 UK AVERAGE North West Northern England Yorks & Humber England Scotland Wales Q3 215 Q4 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216
29 Larger companies have seen bigger confidence declines than smaller ones, probably due to international exposure. ICAEW UK Business Confidence Index 3 UK Confidence Index ALL UK LISTED FTSE35 ALL PRIVATE COMPANIES Private Companies Large (25+ staff) Private Companies SME (<25 staff) Q3 215 Q4 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216
30 Outline 1. Confidence 2. GDP forecast 3. Trends in sales, domestic & export 4. Impact: skills, costs, capacity, profits & prices 5. Responses: investment, employment & pay 6. Confidence: sectors, regions & types of company 7. Trends: selected sectors Source: ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 211 Business Confidence Monitor
31 Q4 27 Q1 28 Q2 28 Q3 28 Q4 28 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q3 29 Q4 29 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 211 Q2 211 Q3 211 Q4 211 Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 212 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 *next 12 months Manufacturing has seen modest growth in most indicators since 212 (before that, export growth was strong). Its confidence was hit by Brexit, but less than most sectors. 8 Manufacturing & Engineering Change in domestic sales over 12 months Change in export sales over 12 months Change in employees over 12 months Change in capital investment over 12 months
32 Q4 27 Q1 28 Q2 28 Q3 28 Q4 28 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q3 29 Q4 29 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 211 Q2 211 Q3 211 Q4 211 Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 212 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 *next 12 months Construction was a leader for domestic sales in 214 and 215 but has seen sales slow. Expectations across all indicators have fallen sharply, as has confidence. 1 Construction Change in domestic sales over 12 months Change in export sales over 12 months Change in employees over 12 months Change in capital investment over 12 months
33 Q4 27 Q1 28 Q2 28 Q3 28 Q4 28 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q3 29 Q4 29 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 211 Q2 211 Q3 211 Q4 211 Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 212 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 *next 12 months Finance has seen modest sales growth since 211 and employment growth only since 214. It has been less shocked by Brexit than most sectors. 1 Banking, Finance & Insurance Change in domestic sales over 12 months Change in export sales over 12 months Change in employees over 12 months Change in capital investment over 12 months
34 Q4 27 Q1 28 Q2 28 Q3 28 Q4 28 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q3 29 Q4 29 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 211 Q2 211 Q3 211 Q4 211 Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 212 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 *next 12 months Business services have seen steady growth since 211. Brexit had a big hit to confidence, but it has recovered somewhat, perhaps because of Brexit-opportunities. 8 Business Services Change in domestic sales over 12 months Change in export sales over 12 months Change in employees over 12 months Change in capital investment over 12 months
35 Outline 1. Confidence 2. GDP forecast 3. Trends in sales, domestic & export 4. Impact: skills, costs, capacity, profits & prices 5. Responses: investment, employment & pay 6. Confidence: sectors, regions & types of company 7. Trends: selected sectors 8. Summary Source: ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 211 Business Confidence Monitor
36 Summary 1. Confidence, already on a firmly downward trend, has been hit further by Brexit. Since then some recovery in confidence is evident, but only modest. 2. The slowdown in domestic sales growth may have come to a halt. Export sales growth has remained modest and so overall growth has been subdued. Expectations of a pick-up had already weakened, before Brexit. 3. With sales slowing, spare capacity is rising thus easing concerns over skill shortages. 4. Companies face rising input prices but flat selling prices, so profits growth remains low and below expectations. In consequence, companies are cutting their investment plans, including for Research & Development and staff development. 5. Employment growth has continued to soften and Brexit has weakened expectations further. 6. Construction and Property, plus Transport & Storage, lead the falls in confidence, as do Larger companies. The loss of confidence is nearuniversal across regions.
37 A world leader of the accountancy and finance profession ICAEW 215
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