WEST AFRICAN POWER BARONS FORUM. 1-2 September 2016 ACCRA; Ghana

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1 WEST AFRICAN POWER BARONS FORUM 1-2 September 2016 ACCRA; Ghana

2 Background There are 15 countries in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS): Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Cote d'ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo. ECOWAS works to promote cooperation in the region on a range of economic and political issues including conflict resolution. The countries of West Africa have a population of 245 million. About 65 percent of them live in rural areas. Eight countries in the region (Benin, Burkina Faso, Cote d'ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo) are members of the West Africa Economy and Monetary Union (WAEMU) and share a common currency, a common central bank, a development bank, a regional stock exchange and a common banking regulator.

3 Background The average yearly income for each person in West Africa is $309. This compares with an average yearly income for each person in Sub-Saharan Africa of $470. The region's economic growth has averaged only 2.5 percent during the past three years while its population has been growing by 2.2 percent a year. It is estimated that economic growth of about 6-7 percent a year would be required to meet the goal of cutting extreme poverty in half by 2015.

4 Millennium Development Goals

5 West Africa is lagging in efforts to meet the Millennium Development Goals Over 55 percent of West Africans life on less than $1 a day; Life expectancy at birth is only 46 years; Secondary school enrollment is at 20 percent; Forty-two percent of adults are illiterate; Malnutrition affects 29 percent of children under the age of five. In 1999, it was estimated that $800 million that could have been used for development was instead diverted into conflicts.

6 Power Scenario 30% of Sub-Saharan Africans have access to electricity, far lower than other major regions in the world in India, for example, the electrification rate is around 65%. Planned and unplanned black-outs are a familiar feature of everyday life for millions of people and those without back-up systems have no choice but to wait for the lights to come back on. With total installed capacity of only 16 GW at the end of 2012 for its estimated 300 million inhabitants, and that capacity only operating at an average utilization rate of 36%, rolling and unintentional black-outs are a common occurrence in West Africa, despite its modest average electrification rate of around 31%. To put these figures into perspective, in 2011 electricity production in Nigeria, which accounts for some 10 GW of the region s total capacity figure, amounted to less than half the consumption of Greater London.

7 Power Scenario There is a sharp divide between the better performing West African economies such as Ghana, Cote d Ivoire and Nigeria - where electrification rates range from 50% to 60% - and those such as Mali, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea, which stretch only to 15%-20% penetration. But at least the region fares better than East Africa, which counts countries with electrification rates as low as 6%, such as Uganda. Despite the headline figures, West Africa s power situation has improved noticeably in recent years. Power production, for example, has risen by roughly 8% per year (to 52 TWh), far above the Sub-Saharan average. And critically, it has gained a new political urgency with economic expansion in the region. The common challenge for the 13 countries in the West African Power Pool (WAPP) is thus to boost the supply of power, for a raft of political and security reasons, in addition to the more obvious societal and economic advantages that widening access to power will bring. Power supply is clearly a number one priority.

8 Key electricity indicators

9 Power Scenario Assessing the scale of the capacity needed to supply short- and mediumterm demand is a more complicated task, however. The traditional modelling approach is to apply an electricity coefficient - based on a simple division of annual percentage growth in power demand by the percentage change in GDP - to projected GDP growth. This indicates the increase in power supply that is necessary to meet that level of economic expansion.

10 Power Scenario Some of the needed capacity expansion is already underway and more is planned. Notable expansions that are likely to be operational by 2020 deadline include: Benin: the 80 MW Maria Gleta gas-fired plant, due online in 2014; Cote d Ivoire: the Ciprel, Azito and Songon gas-fired plants, which will add upwards of 700 MW in new and expanded capacity; Ghana: the Takoradi and Kpone gas-fired plants and Bui hydropower plant, totalling around 900 MW; Nigeria: more than a dozen gas-fired plants, delivering likely capacity growth of at least 5,000 MW; Senegal: around 100 MW of additional oil-fired capability and the 125 MW Sendou coalfired plant. It is also worth noting that national utility Senelec is actively investigating the possibility of new LNG-fired power plant.

11 Power Scenario Some of the needed capacity expansion is already underway and more is planned. Notable expansions that are likely to be operational by 2020 deadline include: Benin: the 80 MW Maria Gleta gas-fired plant, due online in 2014; Cote d Ivoire: the Ciprel, Azito and Songon gas-fired plants, which will add upwards of 700 MW in new and expanded capacity; Ghana: the Takoradi and Kpone gas-fired plants and Bui hydropower plant, totalling around 900 MW; Nigeria: more than a dozen gas-fired plants, delivering likely capacity growth of at least 5,000 MW; Senegal: around 100 MW of additional oil-fired capability and the 125 MW Sendou coal-fired plant. It is also worth noting that national utility Senelec is actively investigating the possibility of new LNG-fired power plant.

12

13 Power Scenario There are numerous other projects either in the pipeline or proposed, including the 240 MW Kaleta hydro plant in Guinea and the 50 MW Bumbuna hydro plant in Sierra Leone, but it is questionable if these will be close to completion by For the projects under construction to be effective, not only is timely completion needed, but fuel supply also needs to be assured, particularly natural gas. And even this committed programme will leave the industry short of some 8 GW of capacity on the base case scenario, a level that implies additional financing needs of at least $15 billion in generation, plus funding to install associated transmission and distribution infrastructure.

14 Power Scenario Moreover, this is a minimum shortfall, if ultimate electrification goals are to be met. But even if this 8 GW is in place, West Africa will still be languishing at the bottom of the global per capita power consumption league table by 2020:

15 Power Scenario Transmission and distribution losses are also a major supply constraint for the industry to contend with. Average losses in WAPP are in the order of 24% - compared to 10% in South Africa and 10-12% in Europe but are considerably higher in some countries. The Electricity Company of Ghana, for example, has reported aggregate losses of 37%. There are many technical and commercial reasons for these losses, but the most critical to address are, on the technical side, lack of maintenance, vandalism and cable theft, breakdown in transformer and switchgear plant and unstable current (which blows circuits). On the commercial side, the critical problems are power theft (via tapping of power lines), destruction of and tampering with meters, lack of meters and inefficient and sometimes corrupt billing procedures. Reducing technical losses alone across West Africa to levels more typical internationally could defer around 1,000 MW of capacity expansion.

16

17 Power Scenario Hydro typically has the cheapest operating costs of any generation technology, but it is debatable just how economically viable hydro power is compared to gas generation in all but the longer term, given that its capital costs are massive. Hydro has a clear place in long-term power planning, but for power-hungry economies, short lead time gas-fired plant has to take precedence. Increasing power utilization rates will also have impact here - the overall pay back economics of thermal plants are improved markedly by running plants at fuller load.

18 West African Power Barons Forum 1-2 September 2016 Accra Trade Center, ACCRA; Ghana Programme: Day 1 1 September :00 hrs Registration & Welcome drinks 18:30 hrs- Opening Plenary Session & Keynote Address- Empower West Africa; Enrich 300 million lives 20:00 hrs Networking Dinner & Cocktails 22:00 hrs - Day ends

19 West African Power Barons Forum 1-2 September 2016 Accra Trade Center, ACCRA; Ghana Day 2 2 September :00 hrs Registration / Tea/Coffee 10:00 hrs Panel discussion Sustainable Energy Models for West Africa Moderator + 4 Faculty 11:30 hrs Coffee break 12:00 hrs Panel discussion The business of West African Grid Moderator + 4 Faculty 13:30 hrs- Networking lunch 14:30 hrs - Scope of Skill development for sustainable growth Moderator + 2 Faculty 15:30 hrs Coffee break 16:00 hrs - Country Presentations Moderator + 3 Faculty 17:00 hrs Closing Remarks & Conference ends

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