World Tourism Trends. 7th UNWTO/PATA Forum on Tourism Trends and Outlook. Guilin, China October 2013 day 1

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1 World Tourism Trends 7th UNWTO/PATA Forum on Tourism Trends and Outlook Guilin, China October 213 day 1 Shuo Wang UNWTO Regional Programme for Asia and the Pacific

2 The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) - a specialized agency of the United Nations (UN) and the leading international organization in the field of tourism. It serves as a global forum for tourism policy issues and a practical source of tourism know-how. - plays a central and decisive role in promoting the development of responsible, sustainable and universally accessible tourism, paying particular attention to the interests of developing countries. - intergovernmental organization with membership includes 162 countries and territories and over 4 Affiliate Members representing the private sector, educational institutions, tourism associations and local tourism authorities. - encourages the implementation of the Global Code of Ethics for Tourism, with a view to ensuring that member countries, tourist destinations and businesses maximize the positive economic, social and cultural effects of tourism and fully reap its benefits, while minimizing its negative social and environmental impacts. - committed to the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, geared toward reducing poverty and fostering sustainable development. www2.unwto.org/en/content/who-we-are-

3 212: one billion international arrivals in one year for the first time

4 Results 212 International Tourist Arrivals 135 million +4.% International Tourism Receipts (BOP Travel) US$ 175 billion (euro 837 bn) +4,% (real terms) + International passenger transport (BOP Transport, passenger) US$ 213 billion (euro 166 bn)

5 Inbound tourism: World International tourist arrivals, * (million) US$ 1,76 bn 995 International tourist arrivals (million) * 1,35 mn 4 million arrivals more than in 211 International tourism receipts (US$ billion) Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

6 Share 212 by region Asia and the Pacific, 233 mn, 23% International Tourist arrivals Americas, 162 mn, 16% Africa, 52 mn, 5% Europe, 535 mn, 52% Middle East, 53 mn, 5% Asia and the Pacific, 324 bn, 3% International Tourism Receipts Americas, 213 bn, 2% Africa, 34 bn, 3% Middle East, 47 bn, 4% Europe, 458 bn, 43%

7 213

8 747 million intnl tourist arrivals through August, 38 million more than in the same period of 212 International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution World (million) * Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

9 International tourism maintains strength International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution World (% change) % -3.9% +6.5% +4.9% +4.% +5.3% * Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

10 Asia and the Pacific Up to 212

11 Inbound tourism: Asia and the Pacific 212 International tourist arrivals, * (million) 35 US$ 33 bn mn * million arrivals more than in 211 International tourist arrivals (million) International tourism receipts (US$ billion) Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

12 Inbound tourism: Asia and the Pacific 212 South-East Asia grows most in arrivals International tourist arrivals, * (million) North-East Asia South-East Asia South Asia Oceania * 211* Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

13 Inbound tourism: Asia and the Pacific 212 North-East Asia grows most in receipts International tourism receipts, * (US$ billion) North-East Asia South-East Asia Oceania South Asia * 211* Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

14 Asia and the Pacific 213

15 AP 163 million intnl tourist arrivals until August, 1 million more than in the same period of 212 International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution Asia and the Pacific (million) * Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

16 Asia and the Pacific going steady International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution Asia and the Pacific (% change) % -3.9% +13.2% +6.5% +6.9% +6.3% * Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

17 212 and 213 year to date by subregion International Tourist Arrivals (% change over same period of the previous year) /11 13*/12 Jan - Aug World Northern Europe Western Europe Central/Eastern Eu. Southern/Mediter. Eu. North-East Asia South-East Asia Oceania South Asia North America Caribbean Central America South America North Africa Subsaharan Africa Middle East Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

18 UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index

19 UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts: World 175 Confidence on the rise again Better Equal Worse Prospects (before) Evaluation (after) t1 t2 t3 t1 t2 t3 t1 t2 t3 t1 t2 t3 t1 t2 t3 t1 t2 t3 t1 t2 t3 t1 t2 t3 t1 t2 t3 t1 t2 t3 t1 t2 t3 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

20 AP confidence improves after temporal dip UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts: Asia and the Pacific 175 Better Equal Worse Prospects (before) Evaluation (after) t1 t2 t3 t1 t2 t3 t1 t2 t3 t1 t2 t3 t1 t2 t3 t1 t2 t3 t1 t2 t3 t1 t2 t3 t1 t2 t3 t1 t2 t3 t1 t2 t3 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

21 Outlook

22 Outlook: World International tourist arrivals Forecast 213: 3% to 4% change (%) * Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

23 Outlook: Asia and the Pacific International tourist arrivals Forecast 213: 5% to 6% change (%) * Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

24 International tourism: projection full year 213 Actual data Jan.-Aug. Projection 213 (issued January) World +4.% +5.3% +3% to +4% Europe +3.5% +5.4% +2% to +3% Asia and the Pacific +6.9% +6.3% +5% to +6% Americas +4.6% +3.2% +3% to +4% Africa +6.5% +5.% +4% to +6% Middle East -6.2% +6.8% +% to +5% Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

25 Outbound markets

26 China has become number 1 outbound market in 212 with US$ 12 bn World and regions: Outbound Tourism International Tourism Expenditure (US$ billion) 1 China 8 United States Germany 6 United Kingdom Russian Federation 4 France Canada Japan Australia Italy 2 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

27 US$ billion High potential outbound markets International Tourism Expenditure: increase (US$ billion) International Tourism Expenditure: between 26 and 212 total up by US$ 33 billion, from US$ 745 billion in 26 to 1,75 billion in 212 (current terms) in spite of crisis Average annual growth rate in real terms +2.7% a year China Russian Fed. Brazil Australia Canada Singapore United States Germany Malaysia France Untd Arab Emrts Norway Hong Kong (China) India Sweden Iran Philippines Belgium Switzerland Saudi Arabia Kuwait Italy Netherlands Nigeria Argentina Indonesia Ukraine Denmark Qatar Taiwan (pr. of China) Thailand Czech Rep Poland

28 5 4 3 Major outbound markets Emerging markets remain hot in 213 International Tourism Expenditure (% change of same period year before, local currencies current prices) C R * ytd China United States Germany United Kingdom Russian Federation France Canada Japan Australia Italy Singapore Brazil Belgium B Netherlands Korea, Republic of Hong Kong (China) Saudi Arabia Norway Sweden Spain Untd Arab Emirates Switzerland India Malaysia Taiwan (pr. of China)

29 Tourism Towards 23 Advance Edition: Key Results 5th UNWTO-PATA Forum on Tourism Trends and Outlook Guilin, China, 27 October 211 Michel Julian, UNWTO Tourism Trends and Marketing Strategies Programme

30 International tourist arrivals to reach 1.8 billion by 23 International tourism, World 2, International Tourist Arrivals, million 1.8 bn 1,75 1,5 1.4 bn 1,25 1 bn 1, source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

31 Emerging economy destinations to surpass advanced destinations in 215 Inbound tourism, advanced and emerging economies 1,25 International Tourist Arrivals, million 1, emerging economies 75 5 advanced economies source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

32 Asia and the Pacific

33 International tourist arrivals to increase by 17 million a year on average International Tourism, Asia and the Pacific International tourist arrivals, absolute change over previous year, million Average increase million a year mn a year mn a year source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

34 Asia and the Pacific will gain most of the new arrivals Inbound tourism by region of destination 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, International Tourist Arrivals, million Africa Middle East Americas Asia and the Pacific Europe source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

35 Asia and the Pacific : Intl tourist arrivals still to grow from 2 mn to over 5 mn International Tourism, Asia and the Pacific 6 International tourist arrivals, million 535 mn mn 3 24 mn Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

36 Asia and the Pacific by subregion Asia and thepacific: Inbound tourism by subregion of destination 3 International tourist arrivals, million North-East Asia 25 2 South-East Asia South Asia Oceania Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

37 South Asia subregion with fastest growth (%) International tourism by (sub)region of destination International tourist arrivals, average annual growth % South Asia West and Central Africa East Africa source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) Central America South-East Asia North-East Asia South America North Africa Middle East Southern Africa Central/Eastern Europe Oceania Southern/Mediter. Eu. Caribbean Western Europe Northern Europe North America

38 NE Asia subregion with fastest growth (abs.) International tourism by (sub)region of destination 1 International tourist arrivals, average absolute change over previous year, million North-East Asia South-East Asia Southern/Mediter. Eu. source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) Middle East Central/Eastern Europe Western Europe North America South America North Africa East Africa South Asia Northern Europe Southern Africa West and Central Africa Central America Caribbean Oceania

39 North-East Asia will be the most visited subregion in 23 International tourism by (sub)region of destination International tourist arrivals, million North-East Asia Southern/Mediter. Eu. Western Europe South-East Asia Central/Eastern Europe Middle East North America Northern Europe South America North Africa East Africa South Asia Caribbean Southern Africa Central America West and Central Africa Oceania source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

40 International tourism by (sub)region of destination 12 1 Europe continues to lead in international arrivals received per 1 of population International tourist arrivals received per 1 of population Western Europe Southern/Mediter. Eu. Northern Europe Caribbean Central/Eastern Europe Middle East Southern Africa Oceania Central America North Africa South-East Asia North America North-East Asia South America East Africa West and Central Africa South Asia source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

41 Share in the world

42 Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East and Africa to increase their shares 198 Africa 3% Middle East 3% Americas 23% Asia and the Pacific 8% Americas 16% 21 Middle East 6% Asia and the Pacific 22% Europe 63% Africa 5% Americas 14% 23 Asia and the Pacific 3% Europe 51% Middle East 8% Africa 7% Europe 41%

43 Asia and the Pacific outbound tourism also growing at a faster pace Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals, share, % 7 6 Europe Asia and the Pacific 2 Americas 1 Middle East Africa source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

44 International Tourist Arrivals received (million) UNWTO Tourism Towards 23: Actual trend and forecasts ,8 1,6 Actual Forecasts 1.8 bn 1,4 1,2 1, 8 Africa Middle East Americas Asia and the Pacific Europe 94 mn 1.4 bn

45 Tourism Towards 23 in one page Tourism Towards 23 shows that there is still a great potential for further expansion in coming decades; emerging as well as established destinations can benefit from this trend and opportunity, provided they shape the adequate conditions and policies with regard to business environment, infrastructure, facilitation, marketing and human resources Along with opportunities, challenges also arise in maximising social and economic benefits and minimising negative impacts Long-term tourism growth pattern: more moderate, sustainable and inclusive

46 Asia and the Pacific towards 23 million additional international tourist arrivals on average a year of the 43 million worldwide

47 CHALLENGES

48 Asia and the Pacific: Opportunities - natural resources - cultural resources - human resources - price - large populations -- intrareg. travel - dynamic economy - travel facilitation - planning & product Challenges - infrastructure - sustainability / greening - congestion management - quality - marketing and promotion - e-marketing - image building and branding - coordination, cooperation, collaboration

49 Summary

50 Thank you very much for your attention! Shuo Wang UNWTO Regional Programme for Asia and the Pacific World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

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