The outlook for the Norwegian economy. Deputy Governor Jan F. Qvigstad Regional network, Sandnes Sparebank 31 May 2011

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1 The outlook for the Norwegian economy Deputy Governor Jan F. Qvigstad Regional network, Sandnes Sparebank 1 May 11

2 Growth projections 11 and 1, IMF World Economic Outlook April 11. Per cent US Euro area China India Source: IMF

3 Equity market risk VIX 1). Per cent. 1 January 8 May Jan 8 Jul 8 Jan 9 Jul 9 Jan 1 Jul 1 Jan ) Measure of expected volatility in the share price index, S&P, where an increase indicates higher expected volatility Source: Thomson Reuters

4 Global imbalances Current account as a percentage of world GDP ) US Oil-exporting countries Germany and Japan China and emerging economies in Asia Rest of world ) Projections for 11 Source: International Monetary Fund

5 US fiscal balance As a percentage of GDP Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 11

6 Bank balance sheets Vertical axis: Tangible common equity to tangible assets (in per cent) Horizontal axis: Reliance on wholesale funding (in percentage of total funding) US June 1 December 8 7 Japan Stronger balance sheets Euro area UK 1 Source: IMF GFSR April 11

7 Banking sector as a share of GDP At end-1 1) 1 % 9 % 8 % 7 1 % 9 % 8 % 7 % % % % % % 1 % % 7 Ireland UK Switzerland Denmark Spain Iceland Sweden Norway US 7 % % % % % % 1 % % 1) Switzerland as at end-9 and Iceland as at 1 Q Sources: Central banks, Thomson Reuters, Norges Bank and Eurostat

8 Yield on 1-year government bonds Yield spreads against German 1-year government bonds. Percentage points. 1 January 1 May Portugal Spain Ireland Greece Italy Belgium Jan/ 1 Apr/ 1 Jul/ 1 Oct/ 1 Jan/ 11 Apr/ 11 Source: Bloomberg

9 Oil 1), gas and petroleum export prices USD/barrel. Jan May 11 Commodity prices Weekly figures. Index. Week 1 = 1. USD. Jan May Oil price Petroleum price²) Gas price Metals ³) Food ³) Aluminium Copper Cotton ) Brent blend ) Weighted average of export prices for oil and gas ) The Economist commodity price index Sources: Thomson Reuters, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

10 Inflation 1-month change. Per cent. January 7 April 11 China, Brazil, Russia and India 1 1 US, euro area, UK and Sweden China Brazil Russia India, wholesale prices USA Euro area UK Sweden Source: Thomson Reuters

11 Probability of inflation and deflation 1) Per cent. 1 January 1 May 11 US Euro area Probability of deflation Probability of inflation above % MPR 1/11 Probability of deflation Probability of inflation above % MPR 1/ Jan/ 1 Jul/ 1 Jan/ 11 Jan/ 1 Jul/ 1 Jan/ 11 1) Based on inflation options (1-year maturity). 1-day moving average Sources: Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank and Norges Bank

12 Actual and expected key rates 1) Per cent. 1 January 8 1 December 1 ) US Euro area UK MPR 1/11 May ) Expected interest rates are based on Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) rates ) Daily figures from 1 January 8 and quarterly figures as at May 11 ) EONIA in euro area Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

13 Import-weighted krone exchange rate (I-) 1) 1 January 1 May 11. Projections for Q 11 Q I- Projection MPR 1/ Jan/1 May/1 Sep/1 Jan/11 May/11 Sep/11 1) A rising curve denotes a stronger krone exchange rate 9 Source: Norges Bank

14 CPI, CPI-ATE 1) and CPIXE ) 1-month change. Per cent. January 8 December 11 ) 1 CPI CPI-ATE CPIXE ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real time data. See Staff Memo 7/8 and /9 from Norges Bank for a description of the CPIXE ) Projections from MPR 1/11 (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank -1

15 Registered unemployment As percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted. January 8 April 11 Employment (LFS) In 1s. Seasonally adjusted. January 8 March Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV) and Statistics Norway

16 Norges Bank's regional network Established in REGION NORTH- WEST Møreforsking Molde Molde REGION SOUTH-WEST IRIS Stavanger REGION SOUTH Agderforskning Kristiansand REGION NORTH Kunnskapsparken Bodø Bodø REGION CENTRAL NORWAY Center for Economic Research, NUST REGION INLAND Østlandsforskning Lillehammer REGION EAST Norges Bank Important source of data for Norges Bank's Executive Board in its conduct of monetary policy Provides accurate forecasts well before official statistics are available The next report will be presented on 8 June Source: Norges Bank

17 Regional network phone survey April 11 Growth in manufacturing output, but somewhat lower than the ½ per cent expected in January The cold winter has limited output growth in manufacturing and construction Somewhat lower-than-expected household demand Overall market outlook has improved since January Employment picked up, as expected Source: Norges Bank

18 Credit growth and property prices 1-month change. Per cent. January April 11 Households Enterprises Credit growth¹) House prices²) ) Households; C, Enterprises; C, mainland Norway ) House prices to April. Credit growth to March ) Commercial property to second half of 1, C February Credit growth¹) Commercial property selling prices³) Sources: Statistics Norway, OPAK, the real estate sector (NEF, EFF, FINN.no and ECON Pöyry), OBOS and Norges Bank

19 Norges Bank s key policy rate Per cent. 8 Q1 1 Q 9 8 Strategy interval % % 7% 9% MPR 1/ Source: Norges Bank

20 The outlook for the Norwegian economy Deputy Governor Jan F. Qvigstad Regional network, Sandnes Sparebank 1 May 11

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