Effect of climate change on NPP

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1 Effect of climate change on NPP

2 However, risk for increased damage Root- rot Increased temperature result in more days for more and faster development in the wood. Bark- beetles Increased temperature leads to more years with double and therefore faster increase ader disturbance Wind- throw Future climate change may lead to more occasions with high wind speed and less frozen ground leads to less anchorage.

3 development of root- rot of infected trees (%) % 1%.5%.2% Total age (years)

4 development of bark beetle damage damaged volume (%) %.5% 1% 1.5% Total age (years)

5 development of storm damage Volume damaged by storm (%) Storm every 5:th year Storm every 2:th year Total age (years)

6 Soil value Effect of storm, root- rot and bark beetle damage. Assumed current damage level 6 Soil value (Kr/ha) No damage +Storm every 2:th year +Root- rot.2% yearly increase +Bark beetle.5% yearly increase No thinning Total age (years)

7 Soil value Effect of storm, root- rot and bark beetle damage. Assumed climate change damage level 6 Soil value (Kr/ha) No damage +Storm every 5:th year +Root- rot 1% yearly increase +Bark beetle 1% yearly increase No thinning Total age (years)

8 New management programs Root- rot increase with age and start ader thinnings Wind- throw more severe in high (old) stands and thinned stands is much more than unthinned Bark beetle large trees are more a_acked by bark- beetle than small ones and increase ader major wind- throw Conclusion - Short without thinning

9 Forest management programs Region Tree species SI Stem no. No. thinnings Rota5on MAI South Spruce G Spruce G Spruce G Spruce G Birch B Beech F Hybrid larch G Hybrid aspen G /23.3 North Pine T Pine T Pine/Contorta TC Pine/Contorta TC Birch B Contorta C Contorta C

10 6 Soil value effect of forest management Southern Sweden Soil value (Kr ha - 1 ) G3-2 G3- G34-2 G34- Hybrid larch Hybrid aspen Beech Birch

11 6 Soil value effect of forest management Northern Sweden Soil value (Kr ha - 1 ) G22-1 G22- G26-1 G26- T22-1 T22- TC26-2 TC26- C31-2 C31-

12 Conclusion stand level Southern Sweden Norway spruce with short and no thinning Hybrid larch and hybrid aspen are Northern Sweden Lodgepole pine without thinning gave the best soil value Scots pine is an Fast growing broad- leaves? Norway spruce is probably not

13 Short without thinning - But what about raw- material for pulp- in a forestry without thinnings?

14 Southern Sweden - Growth 12 Growth (m 3 ha - 1 year - 1 ) Reference Unthinned Norway spruce Birch År

15 Southern Sweden Development of standing volume and harvest 15 Harvest 25 Standing volume Harvest (m 3 ha - 1 year - 1 ) Reference Unthinned spruce Standing volume (m 3 ha - 1 ) Birch År År

16 Southern Sweden Yearly net income Net income (million Skr) Reference Unthinned Norway spruce Birch Time (years)

17 Southern Sweden Effect of a Gudrun- storm 5 years into the period Stem volume (million m 3 ) Bark- beetles Storm Reference Unthinned Norway spruce

18 Northern Sweden Growth Growth (m 3 ha - 1 ) Reference Unthinned contorta Unthinned Scots pine Year

19 Nourthern Sweden Development of standing volume and harvest 1 Harvest 2 Standing volume Harvest (m 3 ha - 1 år - 1 ) Standing volume (m 3 ha - 1 år - 1 ) Reference Unthinned contorta Unthinned Scots pine Year Year

20 Southern Sweden Yearly net income Ne_ income (milj kr) Reference Unthinned contorta Unthinned Scots pine Time (years)

21 Southern Sweden Effect of a Gudrun- storm 5 years into the period 8 Bark- beetles Stem volume (million m 3 ) Storm Reference Unthinned contorta Unthinned Scots pine

22 Conclusion landscape level Southern Sweden Norway spruce with short and without thinning could not keep up with the harvest levels in the reference scenario Net income was almost the same with or without thinnings Birch gave both low harvest and low net income Northern Sweden Lodgepole pine without thinning gave the best harvest levels and yearly net income Scots pine in short without thinnings gave be_er and yearly income than the reference scenario Risk for storm and mark- beetle damage Short without thinnings significantly reduced damage of a simulated Gudrun- storm 5 years into the period.

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