Sustainable Inclusive Cities as drivers of Global Transformation

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1 Sustainable Inclusive Cities as drivers of Global Transformation Bonn Conference for Global Transformation From Politics to Implementation Bonn, 12 th May 2015 Aromar Indian Institute for Human Settlements, Bangalore, India Co-Chair, SDSN Sustainable Cities Thematic Group & #urban SDG Campaign 1

2 Is urban transformation possible?

3 RBAN TRANSFORMATION BERLIN (1945)

4 URBAN TRANSFORMATION BERLIN: REMEMBERING THE WALL (2011)

5 URBAN TRANSFORMATION SHANGHAI (1987)

6 URBAN TRANSFORMATION SHANGHAI (2014)

7 Can cities & regions enable global transformation?

8

9

10

11 Largest cities in the World (2025) Source: IIED, 2014

12 Cities and regions are the 21 st century engines of inclusive growth & sustainable development

13 How cities could enable global transformation?

14 How Cities enable growth & (sustainable) development? INVESTMENT / PRODUCTIVITY/ RISK Ln (output/ mean output) Risk & Conflict < 50% Productivity & Innovation β = 1.2 Integrated Infrastructure β = 0.8 2x Ln (population/ mean population) CITY SIZE Source: West & Bettencourt et al, 2007, 2013 Scaling laws of infrastructure & connectivity: Cities and regions as physical & social networks

15 But will this be inclusive & sustainable?

16 Core challenges of the 21 st century Sustainability Transition Present consumption requires ~2.0 worlds 21 st century Population growth needs 1.5+ worlds Ending poverty at present throughput ~2.0 worlds Available only One World

17 Cities concentrate poverty, informality, risk and the potential for strife

18 CITIES CONCENTRATE ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY & INFORMALITY JAKARTA

19 CITIES CONCENTRATE RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDS HURRICANE KATRINA NEW ORLEANS

20 CITIES CONCENTRATE VULNERABILITY CARACAS

21 CITIES CONCENTRATE INDUSTRIAL ACCIDENY RISK BHOPAL (1984)

22 CITIES CONCENTRATE TECHNOLOGICAL RISK FUKUSHIMA/SENDAI (2011)

23 CITIES CONCENTRATE CLIMATE RISK CITIES > 0.75m (2050s)

24 CIVIL STRIFE KIEV

25 CIVIL STRIFE HONG KONG

26 OPPORUNITIES OF CITIZEN MOBILISATION CAIRO

27 How Cities enable growth & (sustainable) development? INVESTMENT / PRODUCTIVITY/ RISK Ln (output/ mean output) Risk & Conflict < 50% Productivity & Innovation β = 1.2 Integrated Infrastructure β = 0.8 2x Ln (population/ mean population) CITY SIZE Source: West & Bettencourt et al, 2007, 2013 Scaling laws of infrastructure & connectivity: Cities and regions as physical & social networks

28 SDG SUMMIT: TH SEPTEMBER 2015 UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY: NEW YORK

29 What could the SDGs deliver by 2030?

30

31 Education + health care: for all 5 billion urban citizens

32 Move 1-2 billion from slums: into secure housing + adequate services

33 600 million meaningful new jobs: addressing informality & better working conditions

34 Build resilience & address informality: $90 trillion urban economy

35 How could cities & regions enable global transformation?

36 1.1 BILLION NEW PRODUCTIVE JOBS BY 2030 GUANGZHOU

37 SAFE, ADEQUATE & WELL-SERVICES HOUSING FOR 1-2 BILLION+ LIVING IN SLUMS HONG KONG

38 SECURE & INCLUSIVE BUILT ENVIRONMENT & UNIVERSAL ACCESS TO GREEN PUBLIC PLACES LONDON

39 SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLY & UNIVERSAL ACCESS TO URBAN ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES BANGKOK

40 SECURE REGIONAL FOOD SYSTEMS & SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE VANCOUVER

41 SUSTAINABLE & ACCESSIBLE TRANSPORTION BOGOTA

42 RELIABLE, SUSTAINABLE ENERGY & CLEAN MANUFACTURING COPENHAGEN

43 DEPLOYMENT OF DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES HONG KONG

44 END EXTREME URBAN POVERTY, INCREASE PROSPERITY & REDUCE INEQUALITY SINGAPORE

45 END EXTREME URBAN POVERTY, INCREASE PROSPERITY & REDUCE INEQUALITY PORTO ALEGRE

46 BATTLE FOR THE URBAN SDG WILL BE WON IN THE CITIES OF ASIA, AFRICA & LATIN AMERICA DALIAN

47 What have we (almost) gained? Beginning of global synergy across urban groups A urban SDG that we can (almost) live with Urbanisation & localization of the SDG frame Possible pathway via FFD, SDG Summit & CoP21 to Habitat III

48 What may we have (partially) lost? Urban productivity and employment Fractured infrastructure mandate Balance & synergy between rural & urban Localisation agenda

49 Where are we most at risk? I. Limited political conversation on emerging (local to global) urban governance frame II. III. Global institutional vacuum Deeply unprepared for cross-scale implementation IV. No clue about new financing mechanisms V. Local and national institutional capacity deficit

50 How do we finance sustainable urban development?

51 Financing Sustainable urban development Estimated annual financing requirements for infrastructure & WSS SDGs: $ 0.7 to 1.4 trillion This cannot be bridged by legacy aid mechanisms Private flows will have to make up > 50% of this Global net savings is many times investment required Huge gap in financial architecture to enable this

52 What do we need to do in the next 17 months?

53 Seven key steps on the way forward I. Recognise that cities & regions are the key success factor for successful SDG implementation II. III. Recognise #urban SDG:a powerful opportunity to strengthen member-state economy, society & polity Open an urban implementation focus at G-20 & WEF IV. Build a new architecture for localizing FFD V. Recognize local Govts & Summit VI. Cities as implementation frontrunners at Paris CoP21 VII. Establish a global geospatial M&E architecture

54 New GLocal Partnerships: ~ 200 countries & 2,000 local & regional governments i.e. new political, governance and fiscal arrangements

55 It s all about 600 million+ local jobs and universal provision of public goods & services

56 It s also about multi-trillion $ urban, infrastructure and housing financing opportunity: same conversation as the global financial architecture

57 The viability of the 21 st century state system depends on urban security, peace and safety that the #urbansdg is a key driver of sustainable development

58 Build governance & institutional capacity at local, regional, national and global scales at warp speed

59 Mobilise institutionally & politically: G-20, FFD, HLPF, WEF, Mayors & SDG Summit, CoP21, Habitat III

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