Outlook for the Norwegian economy. Foreign Press Association in Norway International Press Centre, Oslo 21 February 2012

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1 Outlook for the Norwegian economy Foreign Press Association in Norway International Press Centre, Oslo February

2 What now Europe? Continued high level of market uncertainty Austerity measures in many countries Banks are deleveraging and funding is less accessible and more costly ECB measures -year loans to the banking sector (LTRO) Key rate reduced to. percent EU measures New agreement: stricter budgetary control, European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and loans to the IMF

3 Phase of the financial crisis Yield spreads against German -year government bonds. Percentage points. January 7 7 February Greece Ireland Portugal Spain Italy Money market premiums Percentage points. -day moving average. January 7 7 February USD (LIBOR) EURIBOR NIBOR Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

4 -year government bond yields ) Very low interest rates in countries regarded as low-risk Turbulence has spread to government bond markets in Belgium, Austria and France France under scrutiny, particularly due to banking sector exposure to countries in peripheral Europe Germany France UK Sweden US Belgium Austria Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. ) Percent. January January Source: Bloomberg and Thomson Reuter

5 Growth outlook has weakened since autumn Euro area: Increased risk of double-dip recession Projected GDP growth in. Percent Projections MPR / OECD US: Prospects for moderate growth, but considerable uncertainty IMF WEO update JPMorgan Nomura Emerging economies: Affected by weaker export demand and financial market turbulence. Tightening being reversed - Trading p. Euro area US China - Sources: OECD, Nomura, J.P. Morgan and Norges Bank

6 Norway affected through several channels Manufacturing PMI is volatile Export markets

7 Norway affected through several channels Bank funding costs increasing Export markets NIBOR (-mth effective) 9 9 Funding 7 Credit premium bank (- year bond) 7 Key policy rate 7 9 7

8 Norway affected through several channels Export markets Funding Krone fairly stable despite heightened unrest ) Import-weighted exchange rate (I-) ). October July Actual average so far in Q:. Exchange rate 9 Q: MPR / Q: Q: Oct. Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct. Jan. Apr. Jul. ) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate. Daily figures (historical) and quarterly figures (projections from MPR /) 9

9 Norway affected through several channels Export markets Petroleum investment is high Funding Exchange rate 9 9 Oil price Petroleum investment

10 Inflation -month change. Percent. January June ) CPI CPI-ATE ²) CPIXE ³) 9 ) Projections (broken lines) from MPR / ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real time figures. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/ and /9 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

11 Key policy rate in the baseline scenario and in the alternative scenarios Percent. Quarterly figures. Q Q 7 Baseline scenario Increased growth abroad Weaker growth abroad 7 % % 7% 9% 9 Source: Norges Bank

12 Key rates Per cent. January 7 February. US Euro area UK Sweden Norway jan. jul. jan. 9 jul. 9 jan. jul. jan. jul. jan. Sources: Bloomberg L.P. and Norges Bank

13 Are interest rates low? Percent. January 7 February 9 7 Key policy rate -month NIBOR -year covered bond rate¹) Lending rate on new mortgage loans²) Average lending rate³) ) Sum of -month NIBOR and indicative premiums on -year covered bonds ) Variable rate on residential mortgages of NOK million within percent of purchase price ) Average lending rate to households (from banks and mortgage companies) Sources: Norsk familieøkonomi AS, DNB Markets, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 9 7

14 Increased costs for banks and enterprises Percent. January 7 February Average corporate lending rate -year bank bond interest rate¹) Key policy rate 7 9 ) Sum of -month NIBOR and indicative premiums on -year bonds. Sources: Statistics Norway, DNB Markets and Norges Bank

15 Longer term challenges High debt burden and rapid increases in house prices Debt burden and interest burden Per cent of disposable income. Actual and projected.9 Q Q House prices in selected countries. Index. 99 Q =. 99 Q Q Debt burden (right axis) Interest burden (left axis) Norway UK Sweden Denmark USA Sources: Thomson Reuters, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

16 Outlook for the Norwegian economy Foreign Press Association in Norway International Press Centre, Oslo February

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