2016 OECD Economic Survey of Norway

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1 2016 OECD Economic Survey of Norway Rebalancing the economy Oslo, 18 January

2 Key messages of the Survey Continue prudent macroeconomic policies, including managing petroleum wealth equitably and sustainably Use structural policies to boost living standards - - this Survey includes in-depth examination of higher education (Chapter 1) and rural economies (Chapter 2)

3 GDP per capita is high Even accounting for cost-ofliving differences, Norway s GDP per capita is now about 67% greater than that of the Euro Area Source: OECD (2015), "Aggregate National Accounts, SNA 2008 (or SNA 1993): Gross domestic product", OECD National Accounts Statistics (database); OECD (2015), Analytical Database.

4 Well-being is impressive Source: Calculations based on OECD (2015), "Better Life Index 2015", OECD Social and Welfare Statistics (database); OECD (2015), "Income distribution", OECD Social and Welfare Statistics (database).

5 Norway s oil fund has become very large - helping finance the budget Source: Norwegian Ministry of Finance. All petroleum-sector revenues are channelled into the fund this helps protect the economy from some of the problems created by uncertain and fluctuating oil prices

6 BUT THERE ARE CHALLENGES

7 The recent oil-price fall illustrates the vulnerabilities of petroleum dependence Between Q and Q4 2o15 the oil price fell by 59%, prompting exchange-rate depreciation Source: OECD, Analytical Database.

8 Cost competitiveness has been falling Unit labour costs in Norway are about 60% higher than they were in In the Euro Area they are less than 30% higher Source: OECD, Analytical Database.

9 Public spending is high Source: OECD, National Accounts at a Glance.

10 House prices are booming Source: OECD, Analytical House Price database; Norges Bank (2015), "Monetary Policy Report with financial stability assessment 4/15".

11 PAVING THE WAY FOR ECONOMIC TRANSITION

12 Containing fiscal expansion 2. Budgets have been pitched well below the allowable level 1. Rising oil-fund wealth has meant allowable fiscal deficits under Norway s fiscal rule have grown rapidly Source: Norwegian Ministry of Finance.

13 The overall tax burden is high Norway s high tax burden makes it harder the economy to rebalance in the wake of oil-price shocks Source: OECD (2015), "Revenue Statistics: Comparative tables", OECD Tax Statistics (database); Norwegian Ministry of Finance.

14 Business regulation is in reasonable shape Norway scores well in the OECD s product-market regulation index, though it is losing its lead as other countries catch up Source: OECD (2015), "Economy-wide regulation", OECD Product Market Regulation Statistics (database).

15 Improving public-spending efficiency Past Surveys have identified several areas where there is room for efficiency improvements: Primary and secondary education (2008 Survey) Health care (2010 Survey) Sickness and Disability Benefit (2010 Survey) This Survey identifies issues in higher education (Chapter 1) and in agricultural support (Chapter 2)

16 GREATER EFFICIENCY AND QUALITY IN HIGHER EDUCATION WOULD HELP REBALANCING

17 In primary and secondary education high spending has led to only average performance Source: OECD (2014), PISA 2012 Database; OECD (2015), "Education at a Glance 2015", Table B1.1a.

18 and the same applies to higher education According to this measure, Norway s best university ranks lower than those in other Nordic countries Source: OECD (2015), "Education at a Glance 2015", Table B1.2; Author's calculations based on Times Higher Education (THE), "World University Rankings

19 Many small providers Many small institutions are providing tertiary education in remote areas they often face challenges in cost-efficiency and quality Mergers underway will reduce the number of institutions from 53 to 42, further mergers should be promoted Source: Norwegian Social Science Data Services (2015), Database for Statistics on Higher Education.

20 Relatively low degree completion and long study times are also problematic Source: OECD (2013), "Education at a Glance 2013", Table A4.1; Statistics Norway.

21 Student choices and provider incentives could be improved by: more targeted incentives for students to complete their courses on time steering student choices for instance, via loan discounts for subjects with high demand making institutions funding more contingent on getting students to complete degrees

22 SHIFTING RURAL SUPPORT

23 Agricultural subsidy is high Norwegian agricultural support comprises around 100 schemes providing financial support plus numerous import tariffs Reduce agricultural import tariffs and subsidies Encourage economic diversification by broadening support for rural areas Source: OECD (2015), "Agricultural Support Estimates (Edition 2015)", OECD Agriculture Statistics (database).

24 Many small municipalities Improve the efficiency of Norway s many small rural municipalities, including through mergers Source: Statistics Norway; Statistics Finland; Statistics Sweden; Statistics Denmark.

25 THANK YOU

26 More Information Disclaimers: The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. OECD Economics OECD 26

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