Morgan Stanley 12 th European Financials Conference

Transcription

1 Morgan Stanley 12 th European Financials Conference Extended version Francisco Sancha CFO London, March 17 th 2016

2 Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by Banco Popular Español solely for informational purposes. It may contain estimates and forecasts with respect to the future development of the business and to the financial results of the Banco Popular Group, which stem from the expectations of the Banco Popular Group and which, by their very nature, are exposed to factors, risks and circumstances that could affect the financial results in such a way that they might not coincide with such estimates and forecasts. These factors include, but are not restricted to: (i) changes in interest rates, exchange rates or any other financial variables, both on the domestic as well as on the international securities markets, (ii) the economic, political, social or regulatory situation, and (iii) competitive pressures. In the event that such factors or other similar factors were to cause the financial results to differ from the estimates and forecasts contained in this presentation, or were to bring about changes in the strategy of the Banco Popular Group, Banco Popular does not undertake to publicly revise the content of this presentation. The information contained in this presentation refers to the date that appears on it, and it is based on information obtained from reliable sources. This presentation contains summarized information and may contain unaudited information. In no case shall its content constitute an offer, invitation or recommendation to subscribe or acquire any security whatsoever, to make or cancel any kind of investments, nor it is intended to serve as a basis for any contract or commitment whatsoever. Its content shall not be considered as any kind of advice. Banco Popular Group does not assume any responsibility for the losses, direct or indirect, which could derive from the use of this document or its content. This document shall not be reproduced, distributed or published, not whole not partially, without the previous written consent of the Bank.

3 The pillars & priorities of our business plan Shaping a business Reinforcing our capital & liquidity ratios CORE BANK Leading the pack in profitability NON-CORE Continue to deleverage our NPAs A PROACTIVE CAPITAL & LIQUIDITY management Strong & resilient SME banking franchise Sound track record of operating efficiency A more resilient Net Interest Income Leading RE sales in Spain Ambitious target set for NPA reduction in % CET1 greatly exceeding 2016 SREP requirement (286 b.p buffer) Increase of 161 b.p. CET1 phased-in YoY 1.5% AT1 bucket already filled >14% Total Capital target Solid funding profile 3

4 Core Bank: leading the pack in terms of profitability 4

5 Popular s Core Bank already holds a double digit RoTE and it is expected to remain strong despite the tough environment Core Bank s 2015 results Leading the pack in terms of profitability RoTE: 12% Underlying (1) RoTE: 15% Operational leadership in Spanish Retail Banking NIM 1.90% Pre-provision Profit / ATAs 1.72% Cost-to-income ratio (2) 36% Loan-to-deposit ratio 102% Risk metrics moving gradually towards normalised levels Reported cost of risk Underlying cost of risk (1) 133 b.p. 91 b.p. NPL ratio 6.5% Coverage ratio 49% Source: Internal data. Data as of December 2015 Core Bank perimeter excludes foreclosed assets & developers NPLs (1) Excluding 350m of extraordinary floors litigation provisions (2) Personnel & General expenses over gross income 5

6 as the Bank is well prepared to face the challenges ahead thanks to its traditional strengths Strengths Challenges Strong & resilient SME banking franchise Sound track record of operating efficiency A more resilient Net Interest Income 1 2 Competition & deleveraging Ultra low interest rates Still have funding levers Better positioned on the asset side 6

7 In 2015, Popular posted exceptional results in SME lending in a highly competitive environment 1 SME banking franchise Competition & deleveraging SME market leader in Spain Main accomplishments in 2015 ~ 17% 10% +3.5% YoY Gross lending (stock) (SMEs, self-employed & Corporates) SME & Corporate Market Share 11.9% 4Q % 3Q15 Popular Av. Spanish listed banks 2% Av. Spanish non-listed banks (SMEs & self-employed) +13.0% YoY Gross new lending production Sources: Internal data & 2015 EBA Transparency Exercise Listed peers: Caixabank, Sabadell, BBVA, Santander, Bankia, Bankinter & Liberbank. Non-listed peers: Cajamar, Ibercaja, Kutxabank, Abanca, BMN & Unicaja 2x more SME & Corporate growth than our competitors 1.5bn POP 0.7bn Spanish average 7

8 growing in Micro SMEs & Professionals, the most profitable and loyal segments 1 SME banking franchise Competition & deleveraging Focused on our Core Business segments SME new lending market share in Spain (%, 9M2015) while we maintain the yield gap vs. the industry New corporates & SMEs < 1M lending yields (%) SME new lending < 1M 15.6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 14.8% 3% 1% 2% 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 0% dec-14 sep-15 Gap Popular vs. Industry (right axis) Popular (left axis) Industry (left axis) Driven by well diversified growth Total lending (stock) variation by sector YoY (%) Source: Internal data & BoS 2% 2% 3% 10% Manufacturing Retail trade Professionals Hotels & Restaurants 17% Agriculture 8

9 well spread across Spain and concentrated in the most dynamic regions... 1 SME banking franchise Competition & deleveraging Popular s SME (1) new lending by region Data as of 2015 Madrid Andalusia Catalonia 16% 19% 18% More than 50% of the new lending is concentrated in the main regions Galicia Valencian C. Castille and León Basque Country Murcia Canary Islands Castille-La Mancha Balearic Islands 11% 7% 6% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% Madrid Andalusia 1 st region by income per capita 1 st region by foreign investment inflow 2 nd region by GDP 2 nd region by foreign exports 1 st region by population 3 rd region by foreign investment inflow 4 th region by tourist inflows Navarre Asturias Aragon Extremadura Cantabria La Rioja 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% Catalonia 1 st region by foreign exports 1 st region by GDP 1 st region by foreign tourist inflows 2 nd region by population 2 nd region by foreign investment inflow 4 th region by income per capita Source: Internal data & INE (1) Includes SMEs & self-employees 9

10 due to a disciplined strategy that is paying off 1 SME banking franchise Competition & deleveraging An unchanged business model for more than 40 years Unique industry knowledge Know-how gained through decades of experience in the Spanish SME sector Relationship management A model based on customers, not on products High level of specialisation 817 corporate managers & 189 specialists in corporate centres Effective pricing strategy Active spreads & fees management Value creation across the Bank A dedicated organisation structure with an SME focus Best-inclass SME Banking A high quality service & operational excellence IT, Risk, HR, commercial, etc. i.e. quickest response to customer needs 10

11 Moreover, this SME lending growth has not been at the expense of relaxing underwriting standards 1 SME banking franchise Competition & deleveraging An extremely high quality of new business performance (better rated & lower EL) New lending to better rated companies (%) SMEs with PD<1% Expected Loss of the production (b.p.) underwritten new +5p.p. 90% 85% M15 2Q13 4Q13 50 b.p. 60 b.p. Corporates with PD<1% +12p.p. 85% 96% 2Q14 4Q14 20 b.p. 20 b.p. Σ b.p. (cumulative) M15 2Q15 0 b.p. Source: Internal data 11

12 Strong reduction in total expenses (-7.1% vs. 2014) beating the announced target for the year Absolute terms Relative terms 1 Operating efficiency Competition & deleveraging Personnel expenses ( M) -1.1% Cost-to-income ratio ( M). Administrative expenses & depreciation / Gross operating income % ex depreciation expenses General expenses ( M) 12M14 12M % 59.8% -14.4% 2015 annual target: -10% 38.9% M M15 Popular Group Popular Core Bank 35.8% ex depreciation expenses Average European Banks (1) Sources: Internal data & EBA risk dashboard 4Q15 EBA (data as of 3Q15) (1) Based on 194 European Banks 12

13 Popular has still levers on the funding side to manage margins in absolute & relative terms Popular in absolute terms More resilient NII 2 Ultra low interest rates Relative terms Further capacity to reduce time deposit costs Term deposit costs b.p. December b.p. Front book 76 b.p. Back book Term deposit costs (front book) b.p. As of December b.p. Average ex POP continued improvement in funding mix Retail funding mix %. December 2014 vs % -8p.p. 46% 62% 54% Sight Time Retail funding mix %. As of December % 40% Sight Time Popular in 2014 Popular in 2015 Average ex POP Wholesale funding costs Wholesale funding costs & in wholesale funding costs %. December 2014 vs % -71p.b. 2.34% %. As of December % Popular in 2014 Popular in 2015 Average ex POP Source: Internal data & Annual Reports Peers: Bankia, Sabadell, Caixabank & Bankinter Additional capacity to reduce funding cost after new ECB measures (i.e. TLTRO refinancing) 13

14 ... and its assets are better positioned to deal with the current low interest rate environment Popular s new lending yields evolution Lending yields are picking up slightly in 2016 %. Latest available data 4,0% 3.5% 3,5% 3,0% More resilient NII 2 Ultra low interest rates 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 (1) Shorter duration of the loan portfolio hence less impacted by market rates Lower carry trade contribution to NII Exposure to mortgage business by Bank %. Data as of December 2015, % of performing loan book. -55% 46% Average ex POP Carry trade contribution to NII %. Data as of December % -59% Average ex POP 21% Popular 12% Popular Source: Internal data & EBA transparency exercise Peers: Bankia, Caixabank, Bankinter, & Sabadell (1) Janurary 2016 & February

15 Non-Core Bank: A clear focus on NPAs and an ambitious reduction target 15

16 NPAs started to decline in 2015 and a new plan has been announced to accelerate this process Strengths/ Opportunities Challenges NPAs already falling in Spain Ambitious NPA reduction target for 2016 Manage down RE exposures and NPAs Leading RE sales in Spain 16

17 1 The Spanish Banking industry is prone to an NPA reduction Banks balance sheets have gone through a rigorous assessment Several assessments of the Spanish Banking industry Stress Test Stress Test Comprehensive Assessment (AQR + ST) Stress Test (OW) NPAs already falling in Spain Manage down RE exposures and NPAs + A prudent approach More rigorous NPL treatment Issue of several provision laws 2 Main Euro economies GDP growth estimates Spain is leading the UE in economic growth % IT FR GER EU UK SP IT FR GER EU UK SP 3 RE market recovery Number of transactions Thousand of units +11% House Prices variation (YoY) % -1.9% -5.4%-4.3% -7.8% -11.2% -12.8% 1.8% 4.2% Q15 Source: IMF, INE 17

18 and therefore an ambitious target of NPA reduction has been set for 2016 Ambitious NPA reduction target Manage down RE exposures and NPAs 2016 target Gross entries NPLs Recove ries Ordinary - 4bn NPA reduction NPL variation ( bn) REOs Gross entries Sales REO variation ( bn) NPA variation ( bn) Source: Internal data 18

19 NPL inflows towards normalised levels after a conservative NPL recognition Ambitious NPA reduction target Manage down RE exposures and NPAs NPL inflows are still above normalised levels & will tend to normalise Employing a conservative NPL approach Gross NPL entries as % of average performing book % A 2.7bn of performing loans (subjective doubtful) included in NPLs (c. 15%) 8.10% c. -50% B A RE developers NPL ratio which is well above our peers (1) 60% 42% 0.98% 1.10% 4.20% 51% from NPLs & 49% from subjective doubtful loans 4.60% c. -50% <3% C POP Spanish Banks A higher percentage of restructured NPLs vs. our peers (1) 56% 41% Av POP Spanish Banks Source: Internal data (1) Includes Caixabank, Sabadell, Bankia & Bankinter. Data as of December

20 A more conservative NPL approach (i) Doubtful loans included in NPLs Ambitious NPA reduction target Manage down RE exposures and NPAs A 2.7bn of performing loans (subjective doubtful) included in NPLs (c. 15%) NPL breakdown M 74% with mortgage collateral 86% with mortgage collateral 61% with mortgage collateral 18,340 2,743 9,488 1,430 8,852 Total NPLs 8,058 15,597 1,312 7,540 Total NPLs RE NPLs Non-RE NPLs NPLs Subjective doubtful (performing loans) Source: Internal data 20

21 A more conservative NPL approach (ii) Developers NPLs & Restructured NPLs Ambitious NPA reduction target Manage down RE exposures and NPAs B A RE developers NPL ratio which is well above our peers (1) Developers NPLs evolution %. 60.0% 59.7% 55.7% 44.5% 44.1% 40.0% Bank 1 Bank Restructured NPLs % over total restructured loans C A higher percentage of restructured NPLs vs. our peers (1) 56% 49% 42% 38% 35% Popular Bank 3 Bank 2 Bank 1 Bank 4 Source: Annual reports (1) Peers: Caixabank, Sabadell, Bankinter & Bankia 21

22 And robust coverage levels which are set by the Bank of Spain s provisioning requirements Ambitious NPA reduction target Manage down RE exposures and NPAs Popular s NPL coverage ratio including the value of the collateral % Including the value of guarantees, coverage >100% 42.5% 42.5% 60.7% 103.2% 103.2% NPL coverage ratio Value of guarantees NPL coverage + value of guarantees Leading our peers in terms of guarantees NPLs with mortgage guarantee by Bank (2) %. Over total NPLs 59% 62% 72% 74% Bank 1 Bank 2 Bank 3 Popular Source: Internal data & annual reports (1) Includes Caixabank, Sabadell & Bankia. Data as of December 2015 (2) Peers: Sabadell, Bankia & Caixabank 22

23 Besides, exposure to RE developers has reduced by 22% in the last 2 years Ambitious NPA reduction target Manage down RE exposures and NPAs Evolution of the Real Estate Developers loan portfolio ( M) Performing NPLs Substandard 20,274 19,424 2,528 2,266 18,151 2,173 16,643 1,552-22% 15,892 1,356 11,562 11,615 10,888 9,954 9,488 6,184 5,543 5,090 5,137 5, H H Source: Internal data 23

24 New REO sales record posted in 2015 were above the target and new guidance for 2016 ( 2.8bn) Leading RE sales Manage down RE exposures and NPAs Real Estate Asset sales (1) In 2015 ( M) ( M) x2,7 Land sales x ,800 2,000 2,109 1, Block sales Target Actual 2015 sales (1) Does not include sales from RE developers 2016 Target The speed up of sales has halted the new REO formation REO entries vs. sales evolution by quarter %. Entries as % of sales while the quality of the inflows & sales continue to be in line with the stock 2015 REO entries & sales by quality of location (1) %. As of December 2015 Premium Medium Standard 5.8x 3.7x 3.1x 2.0x 1.5x 0.9x 1H13 2H13 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 33% 32% 28% 30% 52% 54% 54% 56% 15% 14% 18% 14% Stock Dec inflows 2015 sales Stock Dec 2015 Source: Internal data (1) Location quality: Premium > 110% average adquisition capacity, Medium between 90% - 110%, Standard < 90% *Excluding the impact of the portfolio sale in the quarter 24

25 The recovery of the RE market is improving our prices in REO sales Leading RE sales Manage down RE exposures and NPAs REO results per quarter %. Capital gain/(capital loss) over Gross Book Value Annual Price Index Evolution YoY By region, %. As of 3Q15 Evolution by region (%) Exposure by region (%) Total sales of which retail of which portfolio 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15-1.8% -0.5% -0.8% -0.7% -3.7% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% n/a 2.0% +5% price increase in the Website 2.7% -0.1% Balearic Islands Madrid Catalonia Ceuta Cantabria National average Melilla Canary Islands Andalusia Asturias Extremadura Castille-La Mancha Galicia Valencian C. Murcia Castille and León Navarre Basque Country Aragon La Rioja 8.40% 6.90% 6.10% 5.90% 4.80% 4.50% 4.50% 4.40% 4.40% 3.50% 3.30% 3.00% 2.50% 2.10% 1.80% 1.70% 1.40% 1.00% 0.90% 0.90% 56% of our exposure in the most dynamic regions (>3.5% price evolution) 38% of our exposure in dynamic regions (between 1.5% & 3.5% price evolution) 6% of our exposure in less dynamic regions (<1.5% price evolution) Source: Internal data & INE 25

26 Distribution of REO sales representative of the geographical diversification of our portfolio Sales by region 2015 (%) 7% 1% 2% > 30% 1% Between 10% & 30% Between 3% & 10% 4% 11% 3% < 3% 14% 2% 3% 12% Leading RE sales Manage down RE exposures and NPAs 32% 5% 3% Distribution of the stock by region as of Dec-2015 (%) 2% 2% 1% 7% 5% 3% > 30% Between 10% & 30% 11% Between 3% & 10% 8% 1% < 3% 5% 12% 31% 9% 3% Source: Internal data 26

27 Capital & Liquidity: a proactive management 27

28 A clear focus on a Core/Non-Core basis supported by a proactive capital & liquidity management strategy Strengths Challenges Strengthened capital levels CET1 exceeding SREP requirement for 2016 CET1 phased-in increased by 161 b.p. 1.5% AT1 bucket already filled Regulatory pressures >14% Total Capital Target Solid funding profile 28

29 Sound capital ratios and high quality capital Strengthened capital levels Regulatory pressures Common Equity Tier 1 (phased-in) Total Capital ratio (phased-in) +187 b.p % +161 b.p % 11.96% 13.83% >14% Dec capital generation Dec 2015 Dec Dec capital generation 2015 Target Common Equity Tier 1 (fully loaded proforma) Leverage Ratio (fully loaded, pro forma) +48 b.p % 10.86% +53 b.p. 5.54% 6.07% Dec capital generation Dec 2015 Dec capital generation Dec 2015 High quality capital - No potential impact from changes in insurance companies treatment ( Danish Compromise ) - Limited monetisation of DTAs - Higher RWA density than the industry Source: Internal data 29

30 with a MDA headroom of 286 b.p. Strengthened capital levels Regulatory pressures SREP requirement Q15 CET1 phased-in Ratio 13.11% 2015 SREP require. Conservation Buffer % 0.625% 2.86% +286 b.p. of MDA headroom Pillar 2 (CET1 phased-in) in % 10.25% MDA headroom CET1 phased-in SREP requirement Pillar 1 (CET1 phased-in) 4.50% Source: Internal data 30

31 while Improving High Quality Capital with Low Leverage Strengthened capital levels Regulatory pressures CRD IV Fully Loaded Leverage Ratio (1) (%) Average (ex Popular): 4.7% 6,9 6,1 6,1 5,7 5,2 5,0 5,0 4,5 4,5 4,5 4,4 4,3 4,2 4,1 3,9 3,8 3,6 Bank 1 Bank 2 Bank 3 Bank 4 Bank 5 Bank 6 Bank 7 Bank 8 Bank 9 Bank 10 Bank 11 Bank 12 Bank 13 Bank 14 Bank 15 Bank 16 RWAs/Total Assets (1)(2) (%) Average (ex Popular): 31.6% 53,3 48,0 42,6 42,5 38,0 36,1 36,0 33,0 30,9 29,1 27,5 26,3 24,9 23,7 22,0 21,6 17,5 Bank1 Bank2 Bank3 Bank4 Bank5 Bank6 Bank7 Bank8 Bank9 Bank10 Bank11 Bank12 Bank13 Bank14 Bank15 Bank16 (1) Banks: Barclays, BBVA, BNP Paribas, Caixabank, Commerzbank, Danske, Deutsche Bank, DNB, ING, KBC, Lloyds, Nordea, RBS, SEB, Societé Genérale, Swedbank, Q data excluding Popular 4Q15 (2) RWAs as reported by each bank in Q excluding Popular 4Q15 Source: Company 3Q15 reports & Popular 4Q15 report 31

32 Sustained Effort in Capital generation (+193b.p. since 4Q2013) Strengthened capital levels Regulatory pressures CET1 Evolution (%) 11.18% 0.73% 0.46% 0.73% 13.11% 4Q13 Capital & reserves increase Retained profits RWA & Others 4Q15 Popular has demonstrated its ability to effectively create CET1 and successfully raise AT1 through proactive capital management 32

33 and a sound liquidity position, also well above regulatory requirements Solid funding profile Regulatory pressures Sound liquidity position LTD ratio 109% 123% Popular Average European Banks (1) and liquidity ratios well above requirements LCR Ratio 121% Global SIFIs (2) 157% Rest of European Banks (3) 179% POP Source: Internal data, EBA (CRDIV Basel III Monitoring exercise March 2016), & EBA risk dashboard 4Q15 EBA (data as of 3Q15) (1) Based on 194 European Banks (2) Includes 9 European Global SIFIs (3) Includes European 23 large, 19 medium & 72 small sized institutions 33

34 However, the banking industry should be still aware of pending regulations and supervisory exercises that may arise Regulatory pressures Major issues to clarify in the short/medium term Regulatory uncertainty RWA harmonisation (revision to the standardised approach, floors to IRB models) Treatment of sovereign exposures TLAC/MREL Building a capital markets union Consistent implementation of CRDIV across Europe Interest rate risk (risk management, capital treatment and supervision) Financial Transaction Tax Banking Union Accounting harmonisation EU US Free Trade Agreement 34

35 Conclusions 35

36 Conclusions 1. Popular 2. The has overcome the challenges faced in 2015 (low rates & a high regulation) thanks to its unique business model, based on its active management of NII and its leadership in the SME sector Bank s priorities for 2016 are clear: Ambitious reduction of NPAs Reinforcement of its business model: leadership in SME & consumer business 3. The Solvency strength risks faced in 2016 will be similar to those in 2015, but Popular will leverage its strengths in order to overcome them to be able to continuously improve the Bank s dividend policy 36

37 Thank you Further information:

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