H Interim Results. 19 May 2016

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1 H Interim Results 19 May 2016

2 Agenda Highlights - Peter Fankhauser CEO Financial results and Current Trading Progress against plan Summary Page 2

3 Highlights Improved first half performance highlights successful capacity remix to Western Med H1 underlying operating loss improved by 5% to 163 million; revenue slightly up Travel disrupted by geopolitical events; focus remains on margin over volume Strong bookings to Spain; demand for Turkey remains subdued Focus on customer excellence driving higher levels of satisfaction Group Net Promoter Score up by 4 percentage points Good progress on New Operating Model; foundation laid for future growth EBIT benefits of 9m delivered during the period Moody s assigned new B1 credit rating to Thomas Cook One notch higher than our existing credit ratings 1 HIGHLIGHTS Page 3

4 Agenda Highlights Financial results and Current Trading - Michael Healy Group CFO Progress against plan Summary Page 4

5 Financial overview continued improvement Revenue slightly up on a like-for-like basis, despite challenging conditions Underlying EBIT improvement of 8 million Net Debt 50 million higher due to timing of working capital m H1 16 Change Like-for-like Change Revenue 2,672 2,742 (70) 9 Gross Margin 21.7% 21.3% 0.4% 0.1% Underlying EBIT (163) (173) 10 8 LTM EBIT margin 4.1% 4.1% Flat 0.2% Trading/EBIT exceptionals (45) (48) 3 3 Loss from operations (208) (221) Net Debt (at 31 March) (825) (700) (125) (50) 2 FINANCIAL RESULTS AND CURRENT TRADING Page 5

6 Group revenue bridge Successfully rebalanced capacity to slightly grow revenue from last year s level 2,742 (64) (65) 50 2,663 (55) Like-for-like change 9m ,672 (48) (29) 56 Translation Fuel Easter timing * Egypt Tunisia Turkey Spain Major Long Haul Other H1 16 *a reconciliation of Like-for-like () adjustments are shown on page 36 2 FINANCIAL RESULTS AND CURRENT TRADING Page 6

7 Gross margin by business Strong performances in UK and Northern Europe offsetting softness in Condor UK Continental Europe Northern Europe Airlines Germany Group 19.2% 21.6% 22.4% 23.9% 23.8% 26.7% 27.1% 27.7% 24.2% 21.2% 21.6% 21.7% +0.8% 14.8% 13.9% -0.1% 13.8% +2.9% -3.5% +0.1% H1 14 H1 16 H1 14 H1 16 H1 14 H1 16 H1 14 H1 16 H1 14 H1 16 *a reconciliation of Like-for-like () adjustments are shown on page 36 2 FINANCIAL RESULTS AND CURRENT TRADING Page 7

8 Group EBIT bridge Like-for-like Group EBIT 8m higher than last year Like-for-like change 8m (173) (3) 5 (171) (19) 4 (163) FX Easter timing LFL* UK Cont. Europe Northern Europe Condor Corporate H1 16 *a reconciliation of Like-for-like () adjustments are shown on page 36 2 FINANCIAL RESULTS AND CURRENT TRADING Page 8

9 EBIT by business Like-for-like EBIT has improved by 8m due to improvements in the UK and Northern Europe offset by weak trading conditions in Germany LTM EBIT Margin % UK Continental Europe Northern Europe Airlines Germany Group 1.8% 4.5% 5.1% 2.1% 2.5% 2.2% 6.8% 7.6% 10.2% 3.7% 4.6% 3.0% 2.4% 3.9% 4.1% + 5m + 1m + 17m - 19m + 8m (45) (49) (48) (5) (18) (156) (129) (124) (194) (171) (163) H1 14 H1 16 H1 14 H1 16 H1 14 H1 16 H1 14 H1 16 H1 14 H1 16 Note: Group EBIT includes head office costs of 13m H1 16, 17m, and 13m H1 14 *a reconciliation of Like-for-like () adjustments are shown on page 36 2 FINANCIAL RESULTS AND CURRENT TRADING Page 9

10 Group cash flow Free cash flow expected to improve as Summer booking cycle completes m H1 16 Change (235)m EBITDA (66) (88) 22 Working Capital (411) (176) (235) Tax (6) (9) 3 Pensions & Other (6) (12) 6 Operating Cashflow (489) (285) (204) Total Exceptional items (35) (28) (7) Investment in China JV (3) - (3) Capital Expenditure (81) (84) 3 Net Interest Paid (42) (40) (2) Free Cash Flow (650) (437) (213) (176)m WCap c. (60)m Year end timing reversal (115)m Lower bookings to depart in H2 c. (60)m German regulation (411)m H1 16 WCap 2 FINANCIAL RESULTS AND CURRENT TRADING Page 10

11 Net debt Like-for-like net debt increased by 50m due to later booking pattern for Summer 2016 Total change - 125m Like-for-like change - 50m (199)m 382m (108)m (700)m (31)m (44)m (775)m (127)m 2m (825)m FX movements Non-cash movements LFL Operating Cashflow Capex Exceptionals Net Interest Paid Other Trading H FINANCIAL RESULTS AND CURRENT TRADING Page 11

12 Financing update Moody s assigns Thomas Cook a B1 rating One notch higher than ratings assigned by Standard & Poor s and Fitch Planned open market purchase programme for up to 100m of our bonds Reduction of fixed-term debt and lower interest costs remains a priority for Group Signed Additional 150 million Bank Facility Provides greater flexibility to refinance outstanding bonds Dividend payment expected in FY17 Payout ratio of 20% to 30% of FY16 reported net income 2 FINANCIAL RESULTS AND CURRENT TRADING Page 12

13 Current trading and outlook Summer Bookings down 5% for the Group, with holiday risk capacity down 4% Demand for Turkey remains significantly behind last year Northern Europe achieving strong pricing UK continuing to perform well Germany outperforming a challenging market Belgium impacted by Brussels terror events Airlines Germany impacted by pricing pressure, especially to Turkey Outlook Full year underlying EBIT is expected to be between 310m and 335m Growth expectations to FY18 unchanged 1. Based on cumulative bookings to 14 May FINANCIAL RESULTS AND CURRENT TRADING Page 13

14 Agenda Highlights Financial results and Current Trading Progress against plan - Peter Fankhauser CEO Summary Page 14

15 Focusing on Customer Excellence Group NPS development 34 FY15 YTD 38 FY16 YTD Customer excellence leading to higher loyalty and recommendations Customer training overhauled 1,300 reps and managers newly trained this year 24-hour hotel promise now live in 1,500 differentiated hotels with positive feedback Net Promoter Score (NPS) fully embedded into management bonus objectives 3 PROGRESS AGAINST PLAN Page 15

16 Our New Operating Model Benefits delivered in H1 16 Strategic Initiative Progress during H Own-brand hotels and flights Hotels: Continual portfolio development through quality improvements Flights: 95% of fleet is new or fully refurbished; new long-haul routes launched Our holiday offering Omni-channel and customer Efficiencies Revenues from own-brand holidays up by 21% in period Sharing more hotel capacity across the Group to maximise margins New web platform delivering higher revenues and conversion New Direct Debit initiative hugely successful Major efficiencies programme launched in Continental Europe to streamline processes and remove duplication Net EBIT benefits of 9m delivered during H PROGRESS AGAINST PLAN Page 16

17 Own-brand Hotels We continue to develop our 190 hotel ownbrand portfolio New high-quality hotels aimed at generating superior returns remains key focus Higher customer satisfaction with increased Trust You scores across all brands 3 PROGRESS AGAINST PLAN Page 17

18 Own-brand Hotels Ocean Beach Club by Sunwing Launched in Dec 2015 in Gran Canaria Premium family hotel Before 137 rooms available all year round Satisfaction rating 4.7 out of 5 After Superior financial returns 3 PROGRESS AGAINST PLAN Page 18

19 Own-brand Hotels Casa Cook Opened in Rhodes in May Lifestyle hotel with unique design concept 93 swim-up rooms Aimed at independent travellers 3 PROGRESS AGAINST PLAN Page 19

20 Own-brand Airlines Continued fleet upgrade 4 further brand new Airbus A321 aircraft delivered Further growth in profitable long haul and in seat-only TC Group Airlines split of seats by customer 1 45% 55% In house package holidays Third parties incl. seat only 1. For the 12 months to 31 March 2016 Long haul growth by sector Winter 2015/16 +14% Summer % New Routes for Summer 2016 and beyond Rio de Janeiro (FRA-GIG) Austin (FRA-AUS) Martinique (FRA-OHD) Los Angeles (MAN- LAX) Boston (MAN-BOS) Capetown (LGW-CPT) Page 20

21 Our Holiday Offering Why are we growing differentiated holidays? Better quality control Higher hotel allocations Greater occupancy Leveraging scale Stronger relationships with hoteliers More competitively resilient revenues *Excludes Turkey, Egypt and Tunisia 3 PROGRESS AGAINST PLAN Differentiated H1 sales growth Own-brand hotels +21% Differentiated holidays +5%* Greater hotel capacity sharing Aggregating volumes from our source markets Differentiated hotels sold in more than one market 7% 25% Page 21 37%

22 Omni-Channel and customer edigitalresearch benchmarking survey 1 H1 web sales New web platform driving sales and conversion Thomas Cook Thomson Expedia Virgin Holidays Loveholidays.com OnTheBeach Travel Republic 86.0% 85.6% 85.5% 84.7% 82.9% 82.6% 82.6% Germany +21% UK +10% OneWeb (UK) conversion uplift Mobile focus third of visits from smartphones First UK tour operator to launch Direct Debit option 40% uptake for Summer 2017 Lowcostholidays Kuoni 81.8% 80.1% +10% +31% +48% H1 ancillary revenue +10% 1. Survey conducted in February & March 2016 by edigitalresearch using their UK-wide network of online mystery shoppers to assess usability in detail for thomascook.com and 8 competitor websites across all digital channels Page 22

23 NUMO Efficiencies One Tour Operator initiatives on track Driving efficiencies through alignment and integration of our tour operator processes Major efficiency program launched in Continental Europe as part of One Tour Operator Aim to streamline processes and remove duplication Centralise support through Group functions One marketing organisation for more efficient campaigns Simplification and unification of IT Lower operating costs from FY17 3 PROGRESS AGAINST PLAN Page 23

24 Agenda Highlights Financial results and Current Trading Progress against plan Summary - Peter Fankhauser CEO Page 24

25 Summary Good progress despite market disruption Improved sales and profitability Focus on customer excellence driving satisfaction 24-hour hotel promise introduced; NPS increases across all source markets Strong demand for differentiated holidays Further growth particularly in own-brand hotels Full year underlying EBIT is expected to be between 310m and 335m Growth expectations to FY18 unchanged Remain on course to declare dividend at full year In respect of FY16 earnings 4 SUMMARY Page 25

26 Q&A Page 26

27 Financial calendar Q Results - 28 July 2016 Pre-close Trading Update 27 September Full Year Results 23 November Appendix Page 27

28 Revenue & EBIT by quarter Share of revenue Q3 25% Q4 41% Q1 18% Q2 16% Full Year 7,879 7,711 7,716 Revenue bn 2,061-43m + 39m + 21m - 12m 3,179 3,103 3,142 1,945 1,902 1,380 1,388 1,409 1,259 1,275 1, m Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q4 13 Q4 14 Q4 15 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q2 14 Q2 15 Q2 16 H1 14 LTM LTM H1 16 LTM EBIT m Flat + 7m + 6m + 2m m 315 (64) (55) (49) (130) (116) (114) 6 Appendix Page 28

29 Group income statement m H1 16 H1 14 Like-for-like Change Revenue 2,672 2,663 3,010 9 Gross Profit Overheads (742) (746) (839) 4 EBIT (163) (171) (187) 8 Separately Disclosed Items (EBIT) (45) (48) (95) 3 Profit/Loss from Operations (208) (219) (282) 11 Associated undertakings Separately Disclosed Items (Finance Charges) (7) (11) (13) (4) Net Finance costs (73) (79) (71) 6 Loss before Tax (288) (301) (365) 13 Tax 1 (11) (7) 12 Loss after Tax (287) (312) (372) 25 6 Appendix Page 29

30 Revenue by business H1 16 vs. m H1 16 Headline variance % Like-for-like variance UK & Ireland (1)% Flat Continental Europe 1,036 1,113 1,083 (7)% (4)% Northern Europe % 6% Airlines Germany (3)% 4% Corporate (146) (153) (153) n/a n/a Total Revenue 2,672 2,742 2,665 (3)% Flat 6 Appendix Page 30

31 EBIT by business m H1 16 Headline variance % H1 16 vs. Like-for-like variance UK & Ireland (124) (131) (129) 5% 4% Continental Europe (48) (51) (49) 6% 2% Northern Europe % 74% Airlines Germany (18) 1 1 n/a n/a Corporate (13) (17) (17) 24% 24% Total EBIT (163) (173) (171) 6% 5% 6 Appendix Page 31

32 Separately disclosed items 6 months to 31 March months to March months to March 2015 m Cash Non-cash P&L Cash Non-cash P&L NUMO implementation: - Restructuring (21) (3) (24) (21) (1) (22) - Onerous contracts and legal disputes (2) (11) (13) - (18) (18) Other - (8) (8) 1 (9) (8) EBIT related items (23) (22) (45) (20) (28) (48) Profit on disposal of associated undertaking Finance related charges - (7) (7) - (11) (11) Total (23) (29) (52) (20) (32) (52) 6 Appendix Page 32

33 Underlying Finance Costs Assumes all bonds are repaid on maturity Actual Pro Forma m Coupon H1'16 H1'15 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 Interest on bank facilities LIBOR +3.50% Interest on m bond 6.75% Interest on m bond 7.75% Interest on bond 7.75% Interest on m bond 6.75% Bank and bond interest and related charges Commitment fees Letters of credit & bonding Other interest costs Interest & finance costs before aircraft financing Interest income (3) (2) (1) Net interest & finance costs before aircraft financing Aircraft financing Fee amortisation and other non cash Assumed at 60m (same level as FY15) Net Interest Expense Appendix Page 33

34 Net debt composition m H1 16 Variance 2015 Euro Bond Jun-15 - (206) GBP Bond Jun-17 (299) (298) (1) 2020 Euro Bond Jun-20 (429) (394) (35) 2021 Euro Bond Jun-21 (316) (290) (26) Commercial Paper Various (134) (99) (35) Revolving Credit Facility May Finance Leases Various (183) (189) 6 Aircraft related borrowings Various (69) (103) 34 Other external debt Various (25) (13) (12) Arrangement fees n/a (1) Total Debt (1,431) (1,567) 136 Cash (260) Net Debt (825) (700) (125) Maturity profile 31 March Euro Bond ( 400m senior notes) Bank Facility 2020 Euro Bond ( 525m senior notes) Additional bank facility 2017 GBP Bond ( 300m senior notes) Appendix Page 34

35 Cash conversion Cash conversion ( m) H1 16 LTM LTM FY15 95% EBIT Net interest (135) (152) (141) Underlying PBT Free cash flow (51) Cash conversion n/a 38% 95% Not meaningful 38% H1 16 LTM LTM FY15 6 Appendix Page 35

36 Reconciliation of like for like to underlying numbers Underlying refers to trading results after adjusting for separately disclosed items that are significant in understanding the ongoing results. Like for like reflects the comparison in the underlying results after removing identifiable non-recurring items in the prior year. m H1 16 m Revenue Gross Margin EBIT m Change m H1 16 % % Change % H1 16 m m Underlying 2,672 2,742 (70) 21.7% 21.3% 0.4% (163) (173) 10 Fuel (65) % (0.5)% - - Easter timing 49 (49) (0.2)% 0.2% 5 (5) Currency impact (63) % 0.0% (3) 3 Like-for-Like 2,672 2, % 21.6% 0.1% (163) (171) 8 Change m 6 Appendix Page 36

37 FX and fuel hedging (13 th May) Winter 2015/16 Price Summer 2016 Price 2016 Price Winter 2016/17 Price Summer 2017 Price 2017 Price EUR 96% 86% 89% 71% 32% 44% USD 96% 95% 95% 91% 45% 67% Jet Fuel 91% $716 95% $627 93% $682 90% $584 62% $485 76% $536 Jet Fuel GBP equivalent (i) (i) Hedged jet fuel costs translated at hedged USD to GBP rate in FY16 equates to 479/tonne (including into plane costs), (FY15: 540/tonne). This represents a projected saving of 100m for FY16 versus FY15 Transactional USD exposures against EUR, GBP and SEK have been hedged in line with Fuel hedges. A 1% variance in 2016 would have a 0.1m impact. Transactional EUR exposures against GBP and SEK hedged in line with policies. A 1% variance in 2016 would have a 1.0m impact. It is our policy not to hedge EUR and SEK profits and so FY16 profits will not be hedged. At current rates (ii), the impacts of fluctuations in those currencies can be summarised as: Every 1% move in Euro has a 0.4m impact on EBIT Every 1% SEK movement has a 2.7m impact on EBIT (ii) Spot rates as at 13 th May Appendix Page 37

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