The Latino Vote 2016: Swing States and Wild Cards

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1 The Latino Vote 2016: Swing States and Wild Cards Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research

2 About the Hispanic Trends Project Pew Hispanic Center established in 2001; rebranded in 2013 Funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts A part of the Pew Research Center Purpose is to improve understanding of the diverse Hispanic population in the U.S. and to chronicle the growing impact of this population on the U.S. Fact tank, not a think tank

3 Youth, Naturalizations Main Sources of Hispanic Eligible Voter Growth since 2012

4 Latinos Make Up Less than 20% of Eligible Voters in 13 Potential Key States

5 Number of Latino Eligible Voters Growing Fast In millions Eligible Voters Voters Notes: Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. Voters are persons who say they voted. Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the Current Population Survey, November supplements for projections are from the 2015 August supplement.

6 Millennials Larger Share Among Latino Eligible Voters than Other Groups in 2016

7 Majority of Hispanic Eligible Voters are U.S. Born Foreign Born 2nd gen 3rd gen Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations from the Current Population Survey, November Supplements

8 Voter Turnout Rates in Presidential Elections Percent who reported voting among U.S. citizens ages 18 and older Black, non-hispanics White, non-hispanics Latinos Asian, non-hispanics Source: Pew Research Center tabulations from CPS November Supplements, various years

9 In 2012, Millennial Hispanics Turnout Rate Trailed that of Most Other Groups

10

11

12 Latino Voters in PA and NJ For Pennsylvania: 440,000 Latino eligible voters 10 th largest in the U.S. 4.5% of all eligible voters in PA 41% are millennials 14% are naturalized U.S. citizens 64% are Puerto Rican; 11% are Mexican For New Jersey: 831,000 Latino eligible voters 7 th largest in the U.S. 13.6% of all eligible voters in NJ 35% are millennials 35% are naturalized U.S. citizens 40% are Puerto Rican; 29% are Dominican

13 % among Latino registered voters Party Affiliation among Latino Registered Voters Democratic Party Republican Party Unauthorized immigrant children Source: Pew Research Center, 2014

14 Which Party is More Concerned about Latinos? % among Latino registered voters Question: Which party do you think has more concern for Hispanics/ Latinos: the Republican Party, the Democratic Party or is there no difference? % of Latino registered voters % Democratic 61 Party No difference Republican Unauthorized Party immigrant children Source: Pew Research Center, 2014

15 Looking Forward to 2016 Florida is likely to be a key battleground state Other battleground states rich in Hispanic voters include: Nevada Colorado Number of Hispanic voters likely to reach another record high with demographics playing a large role For Hispanic voters, youth is an important key Is Trump a motivator? Will Republicans win the Latino vote? Does speaking Spanish matter? Being Hispanic?

16 The Hispanic Vote in Presidential Elections In millions 71% 58% 40% Unauthorized immigrant children 27% Source: Pew Research Center, 2012

17 Contact Information Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research

18 2012 Presidential Vote, by Race/Ethnicity Hispanic Obama 71 Romney 27 White Black 93 6 Asian Unauthorized immigrant children Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of 2012 National Election Pool national exit poll results, 2012

19 Hispanic Voters in Florida

20 Hispanics in Florida 3 rd largest Hispanic population nationally at 4.36 million, making up one-quarter of FL s population 9% of national Hispanic population is in Florida Florida s Latinos are diverse with large Cuban, Puerto Rican, Venezuelan and Colombian populations Has largest battleground Hispanic population

21 Puerto Rico s Outmigration Largest Since at Least 1980s Source: Pew Research Center Analysis of American Community Survey ( ), Integrated Public Use Microdata Series

22 Cuban Immigration Waves, 1950 to 2013 Source: For , Robert Barde, Susan B. Carter and Richard Sutch, Immigration by Country of Birth North America: For 1988 and later, the 2003 and 2013 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, Department of Homeland Security

23 Florida s Growing Hispanic Electorate In millions Eligible Voters Registered Voters Unauthorized immigrant children Source: Pew Research Center, 2016

24 Political Party Registration among Hispanic Voters in Florida In thousands Republicans Democrats No Party Affiliation Unauthorized immigrant children Source: Florida Department of State, Division of Elections

25 Political Party Affiliation among Cubans is Shifting Unauthorized immigrant children Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of 2002, 2006 and 2013 National Surveys of Latinos

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