THE OECD RESILIENT CITIES PROJECT

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1 THE OECD RESILIENT CITIES PROJECT Preliminary findings June OECD Setsuko Saya

2 The OECD Resilient Cities Project structure Chapter 1 : What are resilient cities? What are the drivers of resilience for cities? Chapter 2: How to measure resilience What are the indicators to measure resilience? Chapter 3: How to enhance drivers of resilience? Horizontal strategies (Adaptive, robust, redundant, flexible, resourceful, inclusive & integrated strategies) Strategies for specific shocks and stresses (e.g. energy and natural disasters) Chapter 4: Case study Antalya (Turkey) Belo Horizonte (Brazil) Bursa (Turkey) Cardiff (UK) Kobe (Japan) Kyoto (Japan) Lisbon (Portugal) Oslo (Norway) Ottawa (Canada) Tampere (Finland) 2

3 Key messages Resilience is the ability to absorb shocks, adapt to new circumstances, transform themselves and prepare for the future shocks and stresses. Cities take different reactions against shocks and stresses, because of their diverse economic, social, environmental and institutional circumstances. Cities need to start their efforts to enhancing resilience urgently, considering the recent economic (financial crisis), social (demographic changes) and environmental (natural disasters)challenges for cities. Enhancing resilience requires a change of mind-set among public sector <new governance structure>, citizens and all stakeholders. Mainstream resilience-thinking in all policy areas is needed. Participatory process which incorporates resilience-thinking must be designed. Investing in areas such as industrial diversification, innovation, infrastructure, compact urban forms, community network development and capacities for public sector will enhance cities resilience. Most national policy frameworks for resilience stress the responsibility of the local governments as well as promote co-operation and the sharing of best practise across all levels of government. 3

4 Key message 1: Cities experiences diverse shocks and stresses. Shocks Economy Economic crisis (e.g. Global financial crisis in 2008 and European debt crisis in 2009, etc.) Industrial structure change (e.g. withdrawal of big firms, closer of mines etc.) etc. Society Demographic change (e.g. Population increase and decrease, ageing ) etc Environment Natural disaster, climate change Energy shortage Ageing infrastructure etc Institution Downsizing the public sector because of the austerity measures etc. Stresses Slow economic growth Population decline Ageing population Weak community ties Poverty Urban sprawl etc 4

5 Key message 1:. And cities take different reaction to similar shocks. For example; GDP growth rates in OECD metropolitan areas (278 cities in 29 countries) 10% 10% 80% of OECD metropolitan areas Increased by 30%... 2% compared from 2008/09 to The dot-com crisis ( ) Source: OECD Metropolitan database 2008 /09 The Lehman crisis(2008) The European debt crisis(2009) 2012 The oil price slump (2014) 5

6 Why do cities react to shocks and stresses in different ways? Innovation is cities in active in many different ways. Patent application in OECD metropolitan areas; 2o Annual growth rate of the number of patent applications ( average) The number of patent applications per 1 million inhabitants ( average) 16% % 12% 10% % 250 6% 4% 2% % Portugal (2) Japan (36) France (15) Italy (11) United States (52) Canada (9) OECD Average Germany (24) Norway (1) Finland (1) 0 Source: OECD Metropolitan database

7 Why do cities react to shocks and stresses in different ways? ----Demographic change can indicate how communities and labour market look like in the long term. Population increase in OECD metropolitan areas; % 70% Youth (0-14) Working age (15-64) Old (65more) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% Japan (36) Finland (1) Portugal (2) France (15) Canada (9) Germany (24) Italy (11) United States (52) Norway (1) United Kingdom (15) Source: OECD Metropolitan database 7

8 Why do cities react to shocks and stresses in different ways? The degree of concentration in labour market is different among cities. Herfindahl-Hirschmann Index to measure labour market concentration among 10 industrial groups in predominantly urban regions. Concentrated Moderately Concentrated Not concentrated

9 Key message 2: Cities need to enhance resilience: the ability to absorb, adapt, transform and prepare for all shocks and stresses from 4 dimensions. Key drivers of resilience 1. Industries are diverse to generate growth. 2. Innovation takes place to lead the economy. 3. Workforce has diverse skills. 4. Infrastructure supports economic activities. Economy 1. Society is inclusive and cohesive. 2. Citizens networks in communities are active. 3. People have access to services. Society 1. Leadership and long-term vision is clear. 2. The public sector has proper resources. 3. Collaboration with other levels of governments takes place. 4. Government is open and citizens are encouraged to participate. Institution Environment 1. Urban development is sustainable. 2. Infrastructure is adequate and reliable. 3. Adequate natural resources are available. Developed based on the statement at the OECD Ministerial Council Meeting (2014) 9

10 Key message 3: Participatory process and metropolitan scale approach helps cities work together with other actors Lisbon Metropolitan area has 3 million population and 235 sub-national governments (SNGs) to work together. 0.5 million 78 SNGs 2 million 132 SNGs 0.5 million 25 SNGs 10

11 A metropolitan scale approach will enable cities to increase policy synergies across municipalities. Examples of cross municipality collaboration Name Key players Activities Kyoto Alliance (Japan) Kyoto prefecture, Kyoto city, 9 universities and 7 business and citizens organisations Modernisation of university education and the development of local public human resources. Northern Kyoto Regional Alliance (Japan) Lisbon Regional Coordination and Development Commission (Portugal) Oslo Regional Alliance (Norway) Cardiff Capital Region (UK) National Capital Region (Canada) 5 cities and 2 villages in northern Kyoto Prefecture 52 municipalities and 355 freguesias Oslo and the 4 counties of Akershus, Buskerud, Hedmark and Østfold Cardiff and other 9 adjacent municipalities Ottawa, Gatineau, National Capital Commission Maintaining population levels and promote economic development. Promoting the traditional industries, infrastructure and tourism as well as medical services Co-ordinating and promoting policies on regional planning and development, environment and land use. Promoting the Oslo Region as a competitive and sustainable region in Europe, focusing on transport and spatial development, climate change and the management of Oslo s international brand. Developing Cardiff s Local Development Plan on housing and public infrastructure. Planning and taking part in housing, energy, economy, climate change and health care sectors in Canada s Capital Region 11

12 Cities and local governments are expected to play key roles in national policy frameworks on resilience 39 national policy frameworks on resilience mention the role of cities or sub-national governments (out of 45 frameworks.) Country Framework Role of cities Japan Fundamental Plan for National Resilience Creating a Strong and Resilient Country (2014) Turkey The Tenth Development Plan ( ) Portugal UK Finland The Road to Growth: A Medium-Term Reform Strategy for Portugal ( ) Climate Resilient Infrastructure: Preparing for a Changing Climate (2011) Action Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction (2012- revise every year) Local authrities are requested to have Regional Resilience Plans in collaboration with the national government. This plan set the objectives and targets of local administrations to deliver more efficient, fast and qualified services; be participatory, transparent and environment friendly: care for the needs of the disadvantaged and be financially sustainable. Established a Municipal Fund to provide financial support to municipalities, to supervise fiscal adjustments and to increase transparency at local levels. Cities should upgrade and adapt infrastructure to boost local resilience and minimise economic risks. This plan considers local authorities as key stakeholders in resilience building for natural disasters. It emphasises that collaboration among municipalities and rescue services should be enhanced. 12

13 Proposed strategies Adaptive they are able to act based on the lessons learnt from the past Robust they have well designed system to absorb shocks Redundant they have spare capacity for unexpected needs Flexible they respond to changing circumstances in of their plans Resourceful to meet critical needs with the resources available Inclusive bring diverse perspectives together Integrated they work together beyond boundary Develop business and talent strategy to encourage innovation. Compact city policies help cities under population growth/decrease pressure to pursue the SDGs. Foster new competitive industries to encourage industrial diversification. Develop investment strategies on reliable infrastructure. Cities need to invest in infrastructure to generate extra capacity in face of any critical moment. Strategic land-use planning multiples the value of limited land. Long-term vision provides guidance in changing circumstances. Entrepreneurship and innovation offer cities option s to create new economies in changing circumstances. A special administrative section for resilience strengthen public sector resources. Cities need to explore fiscal reform. Stakeholder engagement can improve the quality of policies and empower local communities. Ensuring access to opportunities for all citizens. Multi-level governance promotes better policy co-ordination. Universities can become the centre of alliance. Alliance with other cities enables a metropolitan scare effort. 13

14 Diverse challenges in case study cities Industrial diversification Antalya Dependence on tourism and agriculture Innovation Population inflow/outflow Social disparity Disaster Internal migration causing urban sprawl. Belo Horizo nte Bursa Cardiff Kobe Kyoto Dependence on automobile industry Creating value adding industry to retain skilled workforce Declining SMEs and promotion of biomedical sector Declining SMEs with innovative capacity Internal migration causing urban sprawl Inflow causing housing shortage Outflow causing north/south divide Providing public services to marginalised groups Floods and landslides Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake (1995) Lisbon Dependence on tourism Oslo Dependence on oil industry Ageing and declining population Inflow causing housing shortage Gentrification Ottawa Dependence on the federal government Tampe re Leading open and cross-sectoral 14

15 Phase II of the project will focus on 1. Brush up the concept 2. Theme Data assessment Multi-level governance Participatory process 3. Follow up the recommendations for each city 4. How to keep Friends of the OECD Resilient Cities 15

16 Thank you! Setsuko Saya Head of Division, Regional Policies for Sustainable Development 16

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