Myanmar Energy Demand Forecast: Households and Industry

Transcription

1 Myanmar Energy Demand Forecast: Households and Industry Hyunjung Lee, ADB 24 February

2 Energy Consumption vs. GDP Source: World Energy Outlook 2015, IEA 2

3 Myanmar GDP Forecast Source: Asian Development Bank 3

4 4

5 5

6 6

7 7

8 Key Drivers of Energy Demand 1. Households cooking, lighting, water heating, TV / entertainment and cooling services 2. Industry a) Heavy Industry : production of steel, non-metallic minerals (bricks, cement, glass), non-metallic metals (copper, zinc, tin), food (sugar) b) Small Medium Enterprise (SME) sector: electronics, plastics, ice storage, food processing, automotive parts, footwear and garments 3. Agriculture tractors, power tillers, harvesters, irrigation pumps, fertilizer use 4. Commercial Sector restaurants, hotels, retail space, office space 5. Transport private vehicle ownership, visitor arrivals, passengerkm services, freight ton-km services, rail, waterways and air 8 services

9 Household (HH) Sector 1. Cooking (fuel) Cooking appliance inventory (HH s by appliance according to survey) Estimated energy consumption levels (according to survey) Substitute ineffective appliances with modern choices, e.g. Fuel Efficient Stove (FES) Forecast energy needs for cooking 2. Lighting (lux) Compute lighting appliance inventory (HH s by appliance according to survey) Estimate national average lux levels Understand lighting needs (by survey) Substitute ineffective appliances with modern choices(candles, lamps) Determine costs and timing Forecast energy needs for lighting 9

10 Very Low Income Low Income Middle Income High Income Electricity More Convenient Fuels for Cooking Non-Solid Fuels Solid Fuels Wood Natural Gas Gas, Liquefied Petroleum Gas Ethanol, Methanol Kerosene Coal Charcoal Crop Waste, Dung Increasing Prosperity and Development 10

11 Cooking Fuel (2013/2014) 11

12 HH Energy Demand 12

13 Rural HH Energy - Cooking 13

14 Urban HH Energy - Cooking 14

15 Rural HH Energy - Lighting 15

16 Urban HH Energy - Lighting 16

17 Industry Sector 1. Industry structure reflects local demand; small scale, high operating costs, unreliable supply, lack of diversification 2. Industry sector today Minerals extraction and processing tightly linked to local manufacturing needs Currently dominated by cement production Heavy industry is starved of electricity e.g. steel SME s spend as much to generate diesel power as they do to purchase electricity Gas export provides significant earnings 17

18 Energy Use by Industrial Sector Heavy industry energy use dominated by cement 18

19 Small Medium Enterprises SME s cost structure 10 to 20% for grid electricity 10 to 15% for diesel fuel needed to generate electricity Competitive disadvantage 19

20 Industry Sector: Energy Modelling Drivers of Energy Use Manufacturing technologies labour productivity and energy efficiency are a function of technologies employed Growth is push-pull industrial parks create the environment Market demand creates motive Approach Selected high energy use sub-sectors Determined energy consumption per unit of production, e.g. energy use per brick, per ton pig iron and by fuel type Electricity consumption data for SMEs Forecast energy needs according to industry GDP 20

21 Industry Sector in Future Minerals extraction and processing will continue to serve local markets Manufacturing sector will grow and need significant energy net of energy efficiency gains electricity, natural gas and diesel Construction sector depends on heavy industry for manufactured materials Gas export will continue while supplying local demand in power generation, transport, fertilizer and industry needs 21

22 Industry Sector - Energy Including NG for fertilizer 22

23 Small to Medium Enterprises 23

24 Summary Energy is central to economic and social development Household energy Replace biomass usage especially for cooking with modern energy resource such as electricity and LPG Supply energy efficient lighting and household appliances Industry energy Expected to grow 10 times by 2030 Reduce the cost of energy and provide stable energy for industry competitiveness Improve the energy efficiency in industry 24

25 Thank you Contact Hyunjung Lee 25