RNCOS KSA Steel Industry Forecast 2015 Online Business Research

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1 RNCOS Page 1

2 1. Analyst View The Saudi Arabia's economy, the largest economy among the Arab countries and has one of the largest construction industries in the Middle-east region. Backed by an everincreasing demand from the construction industry, steel consumption throughout the kingdom has increased substantially in the past few years. In addition, the steel industry has witnessed tremendous growth in terms of production over the past few years. Moreover, there are huge capacity expansion programs underway in the Saudi Arabia steel industry and the crude steel production is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of around xx% during In terms of the operating mills in major iron and steel sector in the GCC region, the Kingdom has acquired xx% share totaling xx Mills out of the xx mills in the GCC region. Besides, Saudi Arabia has acquired xx% of the total of accumulated investments in this sector till 2011; amounting to US$ xx Billion (SAR xx Billion) compared to US$ xx Billion (SAR xx Billion) which is the total investments of all GCC countries in this domain. Within the GCC region, Saudi Arabia has grown as a major steel industry player. However, the Kingdom s steel industry is highly import-oriented. The consumption of apparent steel was estimated to be around xx Million Metric Tons in In terms of per capita steel consumption, the country took the 4th position in the GCC region, followed by Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in It consumed a mere xx Kg per-capita steel compared to the GCC average of xx Kg. Taking into consideration the giant construction projects currently in the pipeline, per capita steel consumption in the Kingdom is bound to grow in the coming years. Presently, the country is at the second position in construction activity in the GCC region. In 2012, Saudi Arabia is estimated to account for xx% of the total construction projects in the GCC region. In addition, construction sector is the most significant sector for steel consumption in Saudi Arabia. With such a huge spending, the apparent consumption of steel is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of xx% during In terms of players, there are three main steel producers i.e. SABIC, Al Rajhi and Al Tawariqi in the domestic sector. However, other international and domestic steel players are growing in the country leading to increase in the steel supply. Considering all the above factors, the future of the Saudi Arabia steel industry seems quite bright and there is a lot of scope for international steel players as well as exporters to look for the country as a potential market with huge construction activities. However, to ensure continuous growth, the Saudi Arabia steel industry should overcome various hurdles, such as under-utilization of steel mills and industry s cyclical nature. RNCOS Page 2

3 Table of Contents 1. Analyst View 9 2. Research Methodology Saudi Arabia Steel Industry in GCC Context Growth Drivers Economic Growth Boosting Steel Industry Huge Spending on Infrastructure Developments Rising Investment in Construction Sector Focus on Development of Economic Cities King Abdullah Economic City (KAEC) Jazan Economic City (JEC) Prince AbdulAziz bin Mousaed Economic City (PABMEC) Knowledge Economic City (KEC) Growing Power Projects to Support Steel Industry Rising Steel Consumption Railway Projects Increasing Kingdom s Appetite for Steel Saudi Arabia Steel Industry Outlook to Production Crude Steel Finished Steel Long Products Concrete Reinforcing Bar (Rebar) Flat Products Tubular and Other Products Consumption Crude Steel Finished Steel Long Products Concrete Reinforcing Bar (Rebar) Flat Products Tubular and Other Products Steel Trade Scenario Import Ingot and Semi Finished Steel Long Products Flat Products Tubular Products Iron Ore Export Industry Analysis Import Reliance Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) Environmental Concerns Regulatory Environment Steel Pricing Analysis Competitive Landscape Hadeed Al Tuwairqi 67 RNCOS Page 3

4 9.3 Rajhi Steel Attieh Steel Ltd Welspun Middle East Zamil Industrial Investment Company (ZIIC) Arabian Pipes Co. (APC) Saudi Steel Pipe Company (SSP) 76 RNCOS Page 4

5 List of Figures: Figure 3-1: GCC - Iron and Primary Steel Production Capacity by Country (Million Metric Tons), 2008 & Figure 3-2: GCC - Apparent Steel Consumption by Country (Million Metric Tons), Figure 3-3: GCC - Per Capita Apparent Steel Consumption by Country (Kg), Figure 3-4: GCC - Steel Imports (Million Metric Tons), Figure 3-5: GCC - Construction Projects Awarded and Completed (Billion US$), 2011 & Figure 4-1: Real GDP Growth (%), Figure 4-2: Construction Spending (Billion US$), Figure 4-3: Per Capita Apparent Steel Consumption (Kg), Figure 5-1: Crude Steel Production (Million Metric Tons), Figure 5-2: Finished Steel Products Production (Million Metric Tons), Figure 5-3: Long Products Production (Million Metric Tons), Figure 5-4: Rebar Production (Million Metric Tons), Figure 5-5: Flat Products Production ( 000 Metric Tons), Figure 5-6: Tubular and Other Products Production ( 000 Metric Tons), Figure 5-7: Apparent Steel Consumption (Million Metric Tons), Figure 5-8: Apparent Finished Steel Products Consumption (Million Metric Tons), Figure 5-9: Long Products Consumption (Million Metric Tons), Figure 5-10: Rebar Consumption (Million Metric Tons), Figure 5-11: Flat Products Consumption (Million Metric Tons), Figure 5-12: Tubular and Other Products Consumption (Million Metric Tons), Figure 5-13: Steel Imports (Million Metric Tons), Figure 5-14: Iron and Steel Import by Country (%), Figure 5-15: Articles of Iron and Steel Import by Country (%), Figure 5-16: Imports of Ingots and Semi-Finished Steel ( 000 Metric Tons), Figure 5-17: Imports of Long Products ( 000 Metric Tons), Figure 5-18: Imports of Flat Products ( 000 Metric Tons), Figure 5-19: Imports of Tubular Products ( 000 Metric Tons), Figure 5-20: Iron Ore Imports (Million Metric Tons), Figure 5-21: Steel Exports (Million Metric Tons), Figure 6-1: GCC - Steel Imports by Country (%), Figure 6-2: Direct Reduced Iron Production (Million Metric Tons), Figure 6-3: CO2 Emmision (Billion Metric Tons), Figure 8-1: Average Iron and Steel Price (SAR/Metric Ton), List of Tables: Table 3-1: GCC - Ongoing Major Steel Projects by Contract Value 14 Table 4-1: Ongoing Major Infrastructure Projects by Contract Value 22 Table 4-2: Major Power Projects 30 Table 4-3: Ongoing Major Railway Projects 33 RNCOS Page 5

6 Figure 5-3: Long Products Production (Million Metric Tons), e 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f Source: RNCOS Figure 5-10: Rebar Consumption (Million Metric Tons), e 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f Source: RNCOS The consumption of rebar steel consumption has increased rapidly from the last few years with rising residential and commercial construction in the country. Rebar steel is required in construction of pillars and roof lanterns. In addition, the rising rebar demand has made the country major rebar importer. With rising value of construction contracts, the rebar steel consumption is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of more than xx% during to reach xx Million Metric Tons by the end of RNCOS Page 6

7 Research Methodology Saudi Arabian steel industry has emerged as one of the largest steel consumers in the GCC region due to rising construction activities in the country. After the economic slowdown in 2009, the Saudi steel industry recovered rapidly with remarkable growth and became one of the fastest growing industries in the GCC region. Our committed team of industry experts intensively monitored and analyzed the Saudi Arabian steel industry. According to our team of analysts, there is a huge demand for rebar steel in the country. The snapshot of our thorough research approach includes: Secondary Research The research process begins with exhaustive secondary research on internal and external sources being carried out to source qualitative and quantitative information relating to each market. The secondary research sources that are typically referred to include, but are not limited to: Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, broker reports, investor presentations and SEC Filings. Industry trade journals, Internal and external proprietary databases (EIU, One-source, Nexis, Hoovers etc.) National government documents, statistical databases and market reports. News articles, press releases and web-casts specific to the companies operating in the market. Primary Research RNCOS conducts numerous primary interviews a year with industry participants and commentators in order to validate its data and analysis. A typical research interview fulfills the following functions It provides first-hand information on the market size, market trends, growth trends, competitive landscape, future outlook etc. Helps in validating and strengthening the secondary research findings Further develops the Analysis Team s expertise and market understanding Primary research involves interactions, telephonic interviews as well as face-to-face interviews for each market, category, segment and sub-segment across geographies. Estimations and Forecasts We have identified and analyzed key developments, important drivers and main challenges confronted by the industry. We have also recognized the possible growth areas in terms of pipeline products. With the coordination of all the factors, we have presented a coherent analysis of the industry s performance. Finally, we have also presented forecasts for the industry which are sum of our economic and judgmental analysis, based on past trends, challenges, and opportunities for expansion. In this way, our report depicts the most unbiased picture of the KSA steel industry that will prove decisive for clients. RNCOS Page 7

8 ABOUT Established in 2002, RNCOS is a premier source of metal research and information provider. We bring first-hand information and prudent analysis on the metal industry, technologies, economic and non-economic market parameters, potential markets, and key competitors, to help clients identify prospective growth areas and gain competitive edge. All our research solutions are supported by robust, evidence-based analytics grounded by extensive primary and secondary research. They not only provide the most up-to-date market figures, forecasts, and pipeline data, but offers valuable insights on successes and failures in the ever-competitive metal industry. Our reports provide strategic information for investment bankers, companies, management consultants, trade associations, corporate executives and business analysts. Our work helps them to support critical business decisions such as, entering new markets, launching and enhancing products, making acquisitions or strategic investments, unseating competitors and more. WORK PROCESS RNCOS Page 8

9 Contact Information RNCOS E-Services Pvt. Ltd. B 129, Sector 6, Noida, India. Ph.: + 91 (120) Extn. 203/208 Fax: + 91 (120) Website: RNCOS Page 9

10 Disclaimer The findings, conclusions and recommendations that RNCOS delivers are based on information gathered in good faith from both primary and secondary sources. Neither the company nor any of its employees makes any warranty, express or implied, including the warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of RNCOS. Such protected material, however, may be used under the terms of "fair use" as defined in the copyright laws, which generally permits use for non-commercial educational purposes such as teaching, research, criticism, and news reporting. Unless otherwise stated, the copyright, database rights, and other similar rights of this publication are solely owned by RNCOS. You are permitted to print or download extracts from this material for your personal use only. None of this material may be used for any commercial or public use. No part of research material appearing may be reproduced, stored in or transmitted on any other Website without written permission of RNCOS and any payments of a specified fee. Requests to republish any material may be sent to us and it is our sole discretion to allow it or not. RNCOS Page 10

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