The Pharmaceutical & Healthcare Industry in Latin America

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1 Citi s Online Academy Presents: The Pharmaceutical & Healthcare Industry in Latin America Jamie Davies Head of Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Business Monitor International Oscar Mazza Consumer & Healthcare Industry Head Citi Transaction Services Latin America

2 Agenda Introduction Risk/Reward Ratings Case Studies Market drivers Company Activity Q&A min 3 min 2

3 Introduction Established in Headquartered in London, with regional offices in Singapore, Johannesburg and New York City. Clients include corporations, investment banks, consultancies, governments and academic institutions. Over 1 research analysts. Image: the City of London 3

4 The Global Context Pharmaceutical Sales In 211 Asia US$265bn Europe US$329bn Latin America US$7bn Middle East US$16bn Africa US$19bn North America US$358bn Source: BMI BMI View: moderate risk, moderate reward 4

5 The Global Outlook 1,6 1,4 Pharmaceutical Sales (US$bn) Middle East +116% Africa +145% Latin America +119% 1,2 1, Asia +82% 8 6 Europe +18% 4 2 North America +22% Source: BMI BMI View: emerging markets to drive industry growth 5

6 Economic Expansion Real GDP Growth In 212 China India Peru Chile Colombia Argentina Brazil Mexico Russia Venezuela United States Japan United Kingdom Germany France Eurozone Source: BMI BMI View: Latin America has several favourable economies 6

7 Drivers Of Market Growth Healthcare Spending In 211 Guatemala Paraguay Dominican Republic Puerto Rico Ecuador Venezuela Brazil Mexico Chile Argentina Nicaragua Honduras El Salvador Belize Peru Bolivia Panama Uruguay Costa Rica Colombia Government Private % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 1% Source: WHO BMI View: surprisingly divergent 7

8 Demographics Population Growth In 211 Venezuela India Colombia Mexico Peru United States Chile Brazil Argentina United Kingdom France China Eurozone Japan Russia Germany Source: BMI BMI View: appeals to vaccine manufacturers 8

9 Japan Germany France United Kingdom United States Russia Argentina Chile China Brazil Mexico Peru Venezuela Colombia India Demographics Pensionable Population As % Of Total Working Population In Source: BMI BMI View: truly ageing populations decades away 9

10 Disease Burden Diabetes Prevalence In 211 Mexico Russia Japan United States Chile Brazil Venezuela China Colombia India Germany France United Kingdom Argentina Peru Source: IDF BMI View: a typical emerging markets profile 1

11 Healthcare Access Number Of Hospitals Beds Per 1, Population Argentina Brazil Canada United States Panama Chile Mexico Peru Ecuador Paraguay Uruguay El Salavador Costa Rica Belize Venezuela Bolivia Guatemala Nicaragua Honduras Source: PAHO BMI View: an under-appreciated growth driver 11

12 Company Activity Acquisitions Fixed capital investments Partnerships Other BMI View: a sharp uptick in activity 12

13 Foreign Company Performance BMI View: only surpassed by Asia Pacific 13

14 Anti-American? BMI View: outperformance by European firms 14

15 Risk/Reward Ratings Market expenditure Spending per capita Market growth Urban/rural split Pensionable population Population growth Patent respect Policy enforcement Approvals expediency Economic diligence Policy continuity Lack of bureaucracy Legal diligence Business transparency Market Rewards Country Rewards Market Risks Country Risks Rewards Risks Risk/Reward Rating BMI View: an objective assessment tool 15

16 Risk/Reward Ratings Brazil Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating Market expenditure Spending per capita Market growth Urban/rural split Pensionable population Population growth IP Laws Policy/reimbursements Approvals process Economic structure Policy continuity Bureaucracy Legal framework Corruption Note: the higher the score, the more attractive the market feature Source: BMI BMI View: a frequent initial market 16

17 Risk/Reward Ratings Latin America Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Brazil Argentina Mexico Colombia Chile Peru Panama Costa Rica Belize El Salvador Venezuela Guatemala Nicaragua Honduras Regional Average Attractiveness i.e. priority for product launch Source: BMI BMI View: an increasingly attractive region 17

18 Foreign Company Case Study: Sanofi Sanofi's Performance In Latin America Q29 Q39 Q49 Q11 Q21 Q31 Q41 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q Latin America Sales (EURmn) (LHS) Latin America sales as % of global sales (RHS) Source: Sanofi BMI View: strength through organic and inorganic growth 18

19 Local Company Case Study: Genomma The Relative Performance Of Genomma Lab Internacional And The Mexico IPC Index Genomma Mexico IPC Index Source: Bloomberg BMI View: should concentrate on its domestic market 19

20 Market Case Study: Brazil Highlighted by multinationals. Pricing pressures. Unfair public-private partnerships? Brazil's Pharmaceutical Market f 213f 214f 215f Sales (US$bn) Change % y-o-y Current forecast Early 211 forecast Image: Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz) Expenditure (BRLbn) y-o-y % growth Expenditure (BRLbn) y-o-y % growth f 213f 214f 215f CAGR BMI View: the recent outperformer 2

21 Market Case Study: Mexico No energy liberalisation? Dependent on US economy. General security concerns. Mexico's Pharmaceutical Market f 213f 214f 215f Sales (US$bn) Change % y-o-y Image: Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico Current forecast Early 211 forecast Expenditure (MXNbn) y-o-y % growth Expenditure (MXNbn) y-o-y % growth f 213f 214f 215f CAGR BMI View: a positive surprise 21

22 Market Case Study: Venezuela High oil prices. Repatriation of revenues. Anti-American sentiment. Venezuela's Pharmaceutical Market Image: Hugo Chavez f 213f 214f 215f Sales (US$bn) Change % y-o-y Current forecast Early 211 forecast Expenditure (VEFbn) y-o-y % growth Expenditure (VEFbn) y-o-y % growth f 213f 214f 215f CAGR BMI View: October 212 election is key 22

23 Market Case Study: Argentina Under-reporting of inflation. Patent approval backlog. Import restrictions. Argentina's Pharmaceutical Market Image: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos, INDEC f 213f 214f 215f CAGR f 213f 214f 215f Sales (US$bn) Change % y-o-y 1 5 Current forecast Early 211 forecast Expenditure (ARSbn) y-o-y % growth Expenditure (ARSbn) y-o-y % growth BMI View: consistently defying risks 23

24 25 Conclusion The Pharmaceutical Markets Of Latin America 2 Local currency market growth ( CAGR) Brazil Venezuela Paraguay Ecuador Bolivia Nicaragua Argentina Uruguay Peru Colombia Panama Guatemala El Salvador Costa Rica Chile Honduras Mexico x-axis = per-capita pharmaceutical spending in 211 (US$); size of bubble = absolute market size (US$bn) BMI View: crucial to identify opportunities and risks 24

25 Questions For all questions and inquiries related to Business Monitor International, including interest in a free trial or to obtain more information about our subscription services, please contact: Claudio Salazar Account Manager - LATAM & Caribbean Office: Cell: Fax:

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