Why Look Beyond the U.S. for Dividends?
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1 Why Look Beyond the U.S. for s? Market Commentary January 2016 WHEN INVESTORS ARE LOOKING FOR YIELD, many may consider dividend-paying equities. s offer a consistent form of return and may buffer risk during market declines. Investing in dividend-paying equities outside the U.S. may provide the opportunity for further portfolio diversification, higher yields and the potential for attractive long-term total return. Over the past 19 years the Financial Times has been tracking the world s 500 largest companies, the Global FT500, of which 9 pay dividends. The Global FT500 tracks the market capitalization of companies around the globe and ranks the list accordingly. As of March 30, 2015 nearly 4 of the top 50 companies of the Global FT500 were based outside the United States. 1 The next decade will certainly lead to the growth of several emerging economies, but we believe it may also be marked by the return of a classic form of equity investing via dividend-paying companies. The purpose of this paper is to expand on the topic of dividend investing. In our analytical piece titled Growth Investing we reviewed the empirical evidence regarding the potential to provide solid risk-adjusted returns, build wealth and increase portfolio cash-flow via dividend investing. This paper highlights the attractiveness and merits of non-u.s. dividends and why they might serve a place in a properly diversified portfolio. For comparison purposes, international stocks are represented by the MSCI EAFE Index, an index that does not include a weighting in the United States, and U.S. stocks are represented by the S&P 500 Index. ADDING INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES to a domestic portfolio has been widely discussed as a means of enhancing diversification. Most would acknowledge that international investing offers an expanded opportunity set. Casting A Wider Net Broadens Opportunity Adding international equities to a domestic portfolio has been widely discussed as a means of enhancing diversification. Most would acknowledge that international investing offers an expanded opportunity set, citing statistics such as these: As of the end of 2014, the United States accounted for just 4 of the world s equity market capitalization. 2 There were roughly 44,000 international equities compared to just 4,400 U.S. equities at the end of Significant changes in the world economy declining barriers to trade, faster communications and enhanced logistics have led to new growth opportunities. 1 Most recent data available. 2 Source: World DataBank, World Development Indicators, World Federation of Exchanges as of 12/31/14. Most recent data available. NOT FDIC INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE
2 Why Look Beyond the U.S. for s? January 2016 This flattening world has led to a 5 increase in exports as a percentage of global gross domestic product (GDP) since Coincident with these trade enhancements, companies have embraced international accounting standards, opening once inaccessible capital markets to outside investors. The next two decades are expected to bring greater urbanization, an aging world population and a significant emerging market middle class. A Total Approach to International Investing Many market participants believe that earnings growth has been the driver of long-term returns. In the U.S., decade by decade, with the exception of the 1990s, a period marked by excess valuations, dividends have been a significant contributor to total return for equity investors. But more recently, outside the U.S. dividends have been even more material to long-term returns. Exhibit 1: s as a Percentage of Total 1970s (1/31/70 12/31/79) 1980s (1/1/80 12/31/89) 1990s (1/1/90 12/31/99) 2000s* (1/1/00 12/31/09) Post Great Recession (12/31/09 12/31/15) 2015* (1/1/15 12/31/15) U.S.: S&P 500 Total Breakdown As a Share of Total Total Non-U.S.: MSCI EAFE Total Breakdown As a Share of Total Total % 4.2% % 10.3% % 58.2% 41.8% 17.4% % % % 85.9% 14.1% 18.1% 15.3% 2.8% 84.4% % 5.3% % % 1.8% N/A N/A % 2.7% N/A N/A 12.8% % 82.8% 17.2% 4.7% 1.4% 3.4% 29.1% 70.9% 1.3% -0.7% 2. N/A N/A -0.4% -3.3% 2.9% N/A N/A 12/31/05 12/31/15 7.2% 5.1% 2.2% 69.8% 30.2% % 3.3% 6.1% 93.9% * The analysis provided by Ned Davis indicates that the data is not applicable because the data for the 2000s and 2015 is disproportionately high versus the other decades due to the low or negative Total s during these periods. The information provided in this analysis may not represent the full value of reinvested dividends. Data source: Ned Davis Research, Inc. as of 12/31/15. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. Copyright 2016 Ned Davis Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. performance is based on equal-weighted geometric average, computed monthly. income return is based on the return percentage of all dividend-paying companies in the S&P 500 and MSCI EAFE Index. The returns do not reflect the deduction of any fees, expenses or taxes, and assume reinvestment of all income. Investors cannot invest in an index. 3 Source: World DataBank, World Development Indicators, World Federation of Exchanges as of 12/31/14. Most recent data available. 2
3 Why Look Beyond the U.S. for s? January 2016 Corporate Cash: A Potential Catalyst For Growth The level of corporate cash on a company s balance sheet is potentially a positive sign for the payment of future dividends. The Great Recession caused companies to adjust by cutting costs, reducing corporate spending, and modifying corporate governance. But many free cash flow generating businesses used this period as an opportunity to strengthen their balances sheets. As a result, in 2009 corporate cash levels rose to near record levels in 20 years. As the world economy improved, many companies began to put their cash to work, which varied from capital reinvestment projects, share buybacks, or dividend increases, and in some cases engaging in all three. Exhibit 2: Non-U.S. Companies Corporate Cash Levels and s Total Liquid Assets as % of Net Worth MSCI EAFE Nonfinancial Companies Total s MSCI EAFE Nonfinancial Companies Cash and Short Term Investment as % of Total Market Cap $150 $120 $90 $60 $30 $0 Total s Paid ($ Billions) As illustrated in EXHIBIT 2, as global economies continue to recover from the Great Recession companies will need to decide how to deploy their increased corporate cash which in some cases may be dividend payments. Data source: Ned Davis Research, Inc. from 9/30/05-9/30/15. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. Copyright 2016 Ned Davis Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The annual total liquid assets at market value, ending September 30, 2015, as a percentage of net worth of nonfarm, nonfinancial corporates businesses and the total dividends paid in USD for the MSCI EAFE countries. The periods shown represent the history maintained by the source; most recent data available. Non-U.S. Stocks Bring the Potential for Higher Yields Non-U.S. stocks have offered the potential for higher yields. Exhibit 3: Non-U.S. Stocks have Offered a Higher Yield Than U.S. Stocks Yield (%) MSCI EAFE Index S&P 500 Index 4% 3% 2% EXHIBIT 3 shows the dividend yield of the MSCI EAFE Index has on average been more than 5 higher than that of the S&P 500 Index over the last decade. 1% Data source: FactSet from 12/31/05-12/31/15. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Yield (Annual Rate) of the MSCI World Index vs. S&P 500 Index. 3
4 Why Look Beyond the U.S. for s? January 2016 Exhibit 4: Non-U.S. Stocks Showed Higher Yields in Most Sectors Yield (%) MSCI EAFE Index 8% 4% 2% Consumer Consumer Discretionary Staples S&P 500 Index Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecomm Services Utilities Data source: FactSet as of 12/31/15. Sector Yield (Annual Rate) of the MSCI EAFE Index vs. S&P 500 Index. Securities are free float adjusted, classified in accordance with the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS ), and screened by size, liquidity and minimum free float. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. We can also see this yield enhancement by sector. EXHIBIT 4 illustrates that the MSCI EAFE Index has a higher yield in 8 out of the 10 sectors, with the energy and utilities sectors being the highest yielding. Exhibit 5: Stocks in Several Developed Countries Produced Higher Yields than the U.S. Yield (%) 4% 3% 2% 1% Japan United States Germany Canada France United Kingdom Australia EXHIBIT 5 shows that in terms of country breakdown, the U.S. delivered relatively low dividend yields compared to several developed market countries. Data source: FactSet as of 12/31/15. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The yield of the United States is represented by the S&P 500 Index; Canada represented by the MSCI World Index and all other countries represented by the MSCI EAFE Index. s Have Contributed More Than Just Yield Focusing on dividends solely to produce yield may force investors to choose between yield today and growth tomorrow. Seeking to maximize yield may lead an investor to select too many slower-growing, more mature companies like those in the telecom and utilities sectors. A balanced view of yield and capital appreciation allows an investor to expect a reasonable level of yield in conjunction with long-term capital appreciation. Exhibit 6: Growth has been a Major Driver of Long-Term s Decomposition of Nominal Equity s by Country (1/30/70 12/31/15) 12% 9% 3% -3% Yield World Growth U.S U.K. Multiple Expansion 6.7 Japan Canada Total Annualized s France 8.0 Germany 9.8 Australia Data source: Société Générale Quantitative Research as of 12/31/15. Used with permission. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. For a description of how each country is represented, see Endnotes on the last page of this report. As seen in EXHIBIT 6, an investor would have been well served over time by buying dividend-paying companies that grew dividends. When breaking down returns by their subcomponents, one can see that dividends (dividend yield and growth) were responsible for the majority of total return within each country. 4
5 Why Look Beyond the U.S. for s? January Growth Stocks Have Outperformed With Less Risk Ultimately, the goal for every investor is to maximize return while minimizing risk. As illustrated in Exhibit 7, the Growers segment of the MSCI EAFE Index has experienced higher returns with lower standard deviation, a measure of risk, than non-paying companies and ones that either reduced or never changed their dividend. Exhibit 7: Non-U.S -Paying Companies Have Outperformed with Less Risk MSCI EAFE Stocks Risk vs. (8/31/94 12/31/15) % Average Annual Total % Average Annual Standard Deviation Growers Growers Payers w/ No Change Payers w/ No Change Cutters Cutters Non- Payers Non- Payers Sharpe Ratio Growers Payers w/ No Change Cutters Non- Payers Data Source: Ned Davis Research, Inc. as of 12/31/15. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. Copyright 2016 Ned Davis Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing entails risk, including the loss of principal. s are not guaranteed and will fluctuate. yield is one component of performance and should not be the only consideration for investment. For a description of how each stock is grouped by dividend policy, See Endnotes on the last page of this report. Conclusion Investors have certainly been tested over the last few years. As a result, dividends will likely become more important as both a risk buffer and a consistent form of return. Given the attractive yields and wider economic footprint gained, it becomes easier to see the benefits of dividend investing outside the United States. Research has shown that investors looking to maximize total return may consider additional factors beyond dividend yield, such as the fundamentals behind a company, which may be reflected in their corresponding dividend growth rate. An ideal portfolio may include positioning across a wide range of dividend yield and growth rates, and individual securities determined by company specific fundamentals. We believe that the next decade will certainly lead to the growth of several emerging economies but may also be marked by the return of a classic form of equity investing via dividend-paying companies. 5
6 Why Look Beyond the U.S. for s? January 2016 For more information, please consult with your financial advisor and visit sbasset.com ENDNOTES Exhibit 6 The World is represented by the MSCI World Index, beginning 1/31/70 based on first reported data from MSCI. Data provided by the source for the World returns included Sweden since 1/1/93 and Asia ex-japan since 7/1/87. These countries have not been included individually in the chart above because the data did not cover the 12/31/69 12/31/15 time period; the data for Sweden began in 1993 and Asia ex-japan Q For each individual country represented, the representative MSCI country index is used to calculate the total annualized return components: dividend yield, dividend growth and multiple expansion. Local currency is used for each representative MSCI country index. To construct an MSCI country index, every listed securities in the market is identified. Securities are free float adjusted, classified in accordance with the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS), and screened by size, liquidity and minimum free float. Index performance shown is for illustrative purposes only and does not predict or depict the performance of any Santa Barbara portfolio investment strategy. Index returns include reinvestment of income and do not reflect investment advisory and other fees that would reduce performance in an actual client account. All indices are unmanaged and unavailable for direct investment. Exhibit 7 The chart illustrates the average annualized historical performance of the MSCI EAFE Index stocks, grouped as shown according to their dividend policies, using Worldscope data based on the financial statements of reportable companies. (No. Growers: 395; No. of No-Change: 130; No. of Non-Payers: 10; No. of Cutters: 56). Each stock s dividend policy is determined on a rolling 12-month basis. For example, a stock is classified as dividend-paying if it paid a cash dividend at any time during the previous 12 months. growers include stocks with a positive quarter over quarter trailing 12 month dividend per share change. cutters include stocks that lowered their existing dividend or stopped paying regular dividends during the preceding 12 months. A stock is reclassified only if its dividend payments change. The performance of each group is based on the equal-weighted geometric average of dividend-paying and non-dividend paying historical MSCI EAFE Index stocks, rebalanced annually. The performance shown represents the risk-return characteristics of each of the categories. The returns do not reflect the deduction of any fees, expenses or taxes. s for stocks that paid dividends assume reinvestment of all income. Performance returns may have been negative during this time period. It is not possible to directly invest in an unmanaged index. The periods shown do not represent the full history of the MSIC EAFE Index; it is the history maintained by the data source. None of the categories shown here predicts or depicts the performance of any Santa Barbara Asset Management portfolio s investment strategy. GLOSSARY The MSCI EAFE Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI World Index, a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets. The MSCI World Index consists of the following 24 developed market country indices: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. You cannot invest directly in an index. RISKS AND OTHER IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS This commentary should not be relied upon as investment advice, recommendations, offers or solicitation of any particular security, asset class, fund, strategy, or investment product. Investing entails risk, including the possible loss of principal. There can be no assurance that any investment or asset class will provide positive performance over any period of time. yield is one component of performance and should not be the only consideration for investment. s are not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Equity investments such as large-cap stocks are subject to market risk or the risk of decline in response to adverse company news, industry developments, or a general economic decline. Investments in small- and mid-cap companies are subject to greater volatility. Foreign investing presents additional risks such as the potential for adverse political, currency, economic, social or regulatory developments in a country including lack of liquidity, excessive taxation, Santa Barbara Asset Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser and an affiliate of Nuveen Investments, Inc. and differing legal and accounting standards. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The statements contained herein reflect the opinions of Santa Barbara Asset Management, LLC ( SBAM ) as of the date written. Certain statements are forward looking and/or based on current expectations, projections, and information currently available to SBAM. Such statements may or may not be accurate over the long-term. While we believe we have a reasonable basis for our comments and we have confidence in our opinions, actual results may differ from those we anticipate. We cannot assure future results and disclaim any obligation to update or alter any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. Statistical data was taken from sources which we deem to be reliable, but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed. GPE-BGLODV-0116P INV-Y-01/17 Nuveen Investments 333 West Wacker Drive Chicago, IL nuveen.com
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