THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll

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1 THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco, CA (415) FAX: (415) Release #2540 Release Date: Thursday, July 7, 2016 MOST DEMOCRATS WANT SANDERS TO STEP ASIDE AND THROW SUPPORT TO CLINTON. CLINTON HOLDS HUGE LEAD OVER TRUMP AMONG ALL CALIFORNIA VOTERS. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place before release date or if contents are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. (ISSN ) Most California Democrats (53%) want Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders to step aside and throw his support to presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton. However, a sizeable segment of this state's Democrats (38%) feel Sanders should continue his campaign through to the Democratic National Convention later this month. Mirroring voting preferences in the Democratic primaries, there are big generational differences between younger and older voters about this. Democrats under age 40 want Sanders to continue his campaign to the convention by a five-to-three margin. By contrast, nearly three times as many Democrats age 65 or older want the Vermont Senator to step aside now and throw his support to Clinton. The latest poll also finds Clinton holding a huge early lead over presumptive Republican Party nominee Donald Trump when all likely voters in this state are asked whom they would support in the November presidential election. More than twice as many Californians currently prefer Clinton (58%) over Trump (28%), although this thirty-point lead declines to twenty-four points when Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson's name is also included in the presidential preference mix. One of the main factors contributing to Clinton's big lead in California is that Trump has very little cross-over appeal to voters outside his party or to the state's large ethnic voter population. These are the findings to a multiethnic Field Poll completed among 956 likely voters throughout California by telephone in six languages and dialects. Most Democrats want Sanders to step aside and throw support to Clinton When asked what action Sanders should take now that the Democratic presidential primaries are over, most California Democrats (53%) want Sanders to step aside and throw his support to the party's presumptive nominee, Clinton. But, a sizeable segment (38%) thinks otherwise, and feels Field Research Corporation is an Equal Opportunity Employer

2 Thursday, July 7, 2016 Page 2 Sanders should continue his campaign all the way to the Democratic National Convention later this month. Similar to voter preferences in the Democratic primaries, there is a big generational divide in opinions about this. Democrats under age 40 want Sanders to continue on to the convention by a five-to-three margin (59% to 35%). By contrast, Democrats age 65 or older take the opposite view, with 66% saying Sanders should step aside now and only 26% favoring him continuing his campaign to the convention. Voters age also favor Sanders stepping aside and throwing his support to Clinton 58% to 30%. Table 1 What California Democrats think Bernie Sanders should do now that the primaries are over Step aside and throw support to Clinton Continue campaign to the convention No opinion Total registered Democrats 53% 38 9 Age % % or older 66% 26 8 Clinton holds huge early lead over Trump in California in the general election Clinton holds a huge early lead over presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump when a sample of likely voters in this state are asked whom they would support in the November presidential election. More than twice as many Californians currently prefer Clinton (58%) over Trump (28%) if the election were being held today. Clinton's thirty-point lead declines to twentyfour points when Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson's name is also included in the presidential preference measures. Table 2 California voter preferences for President (among likely voters) Clinton vs. Trump Clinton vs. Trump and Johnson Hillary Clinton (D) 58% 50% Donald Trump (R) Gary Johnson (L) Undecided (D) denotes Democrat, (R) denotes Republican, and (L) denotes Libertarian

3 Thursday, July 7, 2016 Page 3 Trump has very little cross-over appeal to voters outside his party or to the state's ethnic voters Trump is receiving an unusually low level of cross-over vote support from Democratic voters in California. While Clinton currently wins receives the backing of greater than eight in ten of her party's rank-and-file, just 5%-6% of the state's Democrats back Trump in either a two-candidate trial heat against Clinton, or in a three-candidate field that includes both Clinton and Johnson. Trump's support among no party preference voters is also anemic, with no more than one in five backing his candidacy in either setting. Support for Trump is also unusually low among the state's ethnic voters. In a two-candidate field, Clinton is backed by 75% of the state's Latinos and 87% of its African Americans. By contrast, Trump draws the support of just 12% and 3% of these voters, respectively. Clinton also holds very large leads over Trump among coastal county voters, who comprise greater than seven in ten of the state's electorate. The former Secretary of State is also preferred by big margins among women, voters under age 40, renters, voters with no more than a high school education, and those with a post-graduate degree. When Libertarian candidate Johnson is included in the mix, Clinton's thirty-point lead over Trump declines to twenty-four points. This is primarily due to Clinton receiving fewer votes from the state's GOP and no party preference voters with Johnson in the mix. For example, while Clinton receives the cross-over votes of 16% of Republicans in a two-candidate field, her support declines to just 10% when Johnson is also listed among the presidential candidate choices. Similarly, while Clinton receives 48% support among no party preference voters in a two-candidate field, this declines to 38% when Johnson is listed.

4 Thursday, July 7, 2016 Page 4 Table 3 California voter preferences for President across subgroups of the likely voter population 2-candidate pairings 3-candidate trial heat Clinton Trump Undec. Clinton Trump Johnson Undec. Total likely voters 58% % Party registration Democrat 87% % Republican 16% % No party preference/other 48% % Political ideology Conservative 26% % Middle-of-the-road 61% % Liberal 83% % Area Coastal counties 62% % Inland counties 47% % Region Los Angeles County 71% % Other Southern CA 50% % San Francisco Bay Area 63% % Central Valley/Other North 43% % Gender Male 53% % Female 62% % Age % % % % or older 50% % Race/ethnicity White non-hispanic 49% % Latino 75% % African American* 87% % Asian American 55% % Education High school graduate or less 64% % Some college/trade school 56% % College graduate 52% % Post-graduate work 63% % Tenure Homeowner 50% % Renter/other 68% % * Small sample base.

5 Thursday, July 7, 2016 Page 5 More Republicans than Democrats express dissatisfaction with their party's presumptive nominee While sizable proportions of voters in both major parties express dissatisfaction with this year's presumptive presidential nominees, more California Republicans than Democrats feel this way. Greater than one in three of this state's Republicans (37%) say they are dissatisfied or upset about Trump becoming their party's nominee for president, while 60% express either enthusiasm or satisfaction for Trump as their party's standard bearer. By comparison, fewer Democrats (25%) express dissatisfaction or say they are upset with Clinton as their party's nominee, while nearly three times as many (72%) describe themselves as either enthusiastic or satisfied. Table 4 California voter views about Clinton and Trump becoming the nominees of their parties (among registered voters) Clinton (among CA Democrats) Trump (among CA Republicans) } 72% } 60% } 25% } 37% Enthusiastic 35% 33% Satisfied, but not enthusiastic Dissatisfied, but not upset Upset No opinion 3 3 Clinton's image rating among the overall electorate is much more favorable than Trump's The overall impressions that Californians have of Clinton have rebounded somewhat since her seven-point victory over Sanders in the state's June Democratic presidential primary. At present, 53% of the state's overall electorate view her favorably, while 43% hold an unfavorable opinion. In April opinions were more divided, with 48% holding an unfavorable view of her, and 47% having a positive opinion. On the other hand, there has been no diminishment in the historically low assessments of Trump as the presumptive nominee of a major party. The current poll finds 73% Californians viewing Trump negatively, while just 24% have a favorable opinion of him. These are very similar to voter assessments of Trump in each of two previous Field Poll measures conducted April and January.

6 Thursday, July 7, 2016 Page 6 Table 5 Trend of image ratings of Clinton and Trump (among California likely voters) Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Clinton July % 43 4 April % 48 5 January % 44 6 Trump July % 73 3 April % 74 4 January % Methodological Details Information About the Survey The findings in this report come from a Field Poll survey completed June 8-July 2 among 1,635 California adults, of whom 956 were considered likely voters in November general election. To capture the diversity of the California population, the survey was administered in six languages and dialects English, Spanish, Cantonese, Mandarin, Vietnamese and Korean, depending on the preference of the respondent. In order to cover a broad range of issues and still minimize possible voter fatigue, some of the questions in this release are based on random subsamples of 495 or 461 likely voters. In addition, the sample sizes applicable to questions asked only of registered Democrats or Republicans included 545 and 290 voters, respectively. Interviews were administered by telephone by live, professionally-trained interviewers calling from Interviewing Service of America's central location call center in Van Nuys. The sample was developed using a dual frame random digit dial cell phone and landline methodology to generate telephone listings covering the state of California. Up to six attempts were made to reach, screen and interview each randomly selected adult on different days and times of day during the interviewing period. In this survey, 715 likely voters were interviewed on their cell phone, and 241 likely voters were interviewed on a landline or other type of telephone. After the completion of interviewing, the combined landline and cell phone sample was weighted to match demographic, geographic and other estimates of the adult and registered populations in California. The weighting process also takes into account the higher probability of reaching respondents who regularly receive calls on both a landline and cell phone. Sampling error estimates applicable to the results of any probability-based survey depend on sample size and the percentage distributions being examined. The maximum sampling error for results from the overall likely voter sample is ±3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, while findings from the random subsamples of likely voters are subject to a maximum sampling error of +/- 4.4 percentage point. Questions asked of registered Democrats and Republicans only have a maximum sampling error of +/- 4.2 and +/- 5.8 percentage points, respectively. These estimates are based on survey findings in the middle of the sampling distribution (i.e., results at or near 50%). Percentages at or near either end of the tail of the distributions (i.e., results closer to 10% or 90%) have somewhat smaller margins of error. There are other potential sources of error in surveys of public opinion besides sampling error. However, the overall design and execution of this survey sought to minimize these other possible errors.

7 Thursday, July 7, 2016 Page 7 The Field Poll was established in 1947 as The California Poll by Mervin Field. The Poll has operated continuously since then as an independent, non-partisan survey of California public opinion. The Field Poll receives financial support from leading California newspapers and television stations, who purchase the rights of first release to Field Poll reports in their primary viewer or readership markets. The Poll also receives funding from the University of California and California State University systems, who receive the data files from each Field Poll survey shortly after its completion for teaching and secondary research purposes, as well as from foundations, non-profit organizations, and others as part of the Poll's policy research sponsor program. Questions Asked (ASKED OF REGISTERED DEMOCRATS) Which of the following best describes how you feel about Hillary Clinton becoming the Democratic Party's nominee for President enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not upset, or upset? Do you favor Bernie Sanders continuing his campaign for the presidential nomination all the way to the Democratic National Convention in July, or should he step aside before the convention and throw his support to Hillary Clinton? (ASKED OF REGISTERED REPUBLICANS) Which of the following best describes how you feel about Donald Trump becoming the Re-publican Party's nominee for President enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not upset, or upset? (ASKED OF ALL LIKELY VOTERS) If the November general election for President were being held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton, for whom would you vote Trump or Clinton? (ASKED OF SUBSAMPLE OF 495 LIKELY VOTERS) What if the choices in the November general election for President were Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Hillary Clinton or Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson? If the election were being held today, for whom would you vote Trump, Clinton or Johnson? (ASKED OF SUBSAMPLE OF 461 LIKELY VOTERS) Generally speaking, is your opinion of (Hillary Clinton) (Donald Trump) favorable or unfavorable?

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