LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK. Winter VIEWS FROM EMPLOYERS

Transcription

1 LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK VIEWS FROM EMPLOYERS Winter

2 The CIPD is the professional body for HR and people development. The not-for-profit organisation champions better work and working lives and has been setting the benchmark for excellence in people and organisation development for more than 1 years. It has 14, members across the world, provides thought leadership through independent research on the world of work, and offers professional training and accreditation for those working in HR and learning and development.

3 Labour Market Outlook Winter Contents Foreword 2 1 Recruitment and redundancy outlook 3 2 Migration outlook 7 3 Pay outlook 9 Sample and method 14 References 16 Acknowledgements The Labour Market Outlook is administered by YouGov and we are grateful to Ian Neale and Laura Piggott at YouGov for advice on the use of the survey data in this report. The CIPD is also grateful to all the respondents who gave their time to contribute to this survey. Any errors that remain are entirely the CIPD s responsibility. cipd.co.uk/labourmarketoutlook 1

4 Foreword The quarterly CIPD Labour Market Outlook (LMO) provides a set of forward-looking labour market indicators, highlighting employers recruitment, redundancy and pay intentions. The survey is based on responses from 1,7 employers, many of whom are drawn from the CIPD s membership of around 14, HR and development professionals. The latest report shows that employment prospects have softened modestly compared with three months ago. The net employment balance for the first quarter of 216 which measures the difference between the proportion of employers who expect to increase staff levels and those who expect to decrease staff levels has fallen to +21 from +28 (Figure 1). The fall in confidence is being driven by a weakening employment outlook in the private sector, which has fallen to + from +41 over the previous three months. Despite the modest fall, the data suggest that employment growth will remain robust in Q There is a risk, however, that wage growth will see a sharper-thananticipated slowdown this year. Consistent with other indicators which suggest that wage growth may be weakening (Bank of England), the report s median basic pay expectations have fallen to 1.2% from 2% since the previous report. The scale of the fall is significant because the measure has little changed over the past 18 months. In addition, the rising share of organisations that plan to freeze pay suggests that a pay divide may be under way, between the substantial proportion of employers that intend to award their staff a basic pay increase of between 1% and 3%, and a smaller, but growing share of employers that are stuck in a pay freeze. The data suggest that low inflation, the National Minimum Wage and the Government s auto-enrolment scheme are increasingly holding back basic pay awards. The proportion of employers that cite an anticipated continuation of the current rate of inflation as a key reason for limiting basic pay awards to less than 2% has more than doubled to 13% from 6% during the past three months. This figure includes almost one-fifth of private sector employers (18%). The expectation among a rising minority of employers that inflation will remain low may mean that weak wage prospects are less transient than some commentators believe. Looking ahead, the data suggest that the pace of wage growth may slow further by the introduction of the apprenticeship levy and the National Living Wage. Indeed, the data are consistent with the CIPD view that many employers will respond to additional cost pressures (such as the National Living Wage) by absorbing the cost and reducing basic pay awards rather than by cutting jobs. Overall, the data suggest that employment growth will remain robust in Q1. However, a significant shift may be under way on pay, driven in part by a combination of factors that include the current low rate of inflation and higher labour costs for a sharply growing minority of employers. These factors look set to more than offset the upward pay pressures of a tight labour market in the near term. 2 cipd.co.uk/labourmarketoutlook

5 Labour Market Outlook Winter Recruitment and redundancy outlook What is the short-term employment outlook? This section focuses on the recruitment and redundancy intentions of LMO employers in the first quarter of 216. This latest report suggests that employment confidence has fallen since the previous report. This quarter s net employment balance which measures the difference between the proportion of employers who expect to increase staff levels in Q1 216 and those who expect to decrease staff levels has fallen to +21 from +28 since the LMO autumn 215 report. Figure 1 Correlation between LFS employment levels and LMO data 1 (%) Millions 31 net % points 4 Number of people employed Manpower EO CIPD LMO Autumn 9 Spring 1 Autumn 1 Spring 11 Autumn 11 Spring 12 Autumn 12 Spring 13 Autumn 13 Base: Winter , all employers planning to recruit or make redundancies in Q4 215 (n=738) Spring 14 Autumn 14 Spring 15 Autumn 15 Winter How to interpret Figure 1 Figure 1 displays the LMO s net employment balance (black line) alongside Manpower s Net Employment Outlook indicator (red line). The purple columns display the total number of people in employment according to the monthly ONS Labour Market Statistics time series data. The latest ONS figures cover the three months to November Labour Force Survey data taken at quarterly intervals based on GB population aged 16+. Spring (February April), Summer (May July), Autumn (September November), Winter (November January). cipd.co.uk/labourmarketoutlook 3

6 Employers planning to hire staff in Q % The fall in confidence is being driven by a weakening employment outlook in the private sector, which has fallen to + from +41 over the previous three months and has risen in both manufacturing and services (Table 1). The fall in employment confidence in the private sector is driven by a combination of services and manufacturing (Table 1). At the same time, the public sector ( 7) remains broadly consistent with recent LMO reports. Meanwhile, this quarter s figures suggest that employment growth may rebound in Q1 216 in the voluntary sector (+32), but the smaller sample means that voluntary sector data tend to be more volatile from quarter to quarter than those for the public and private sectors. Figure 2 Overall effect of recruitment and redundancy intentions in Q1 216 (by sector) (%) net % points Public sector 6 Private sector Voluntary sector 8 1 Spring 9 Summer 9 Autumn 9 Winter 9 1 Spring 1 Summer 1 Autumn 1 Winter 1 11 Spring 11 Summer 11 Autumn 11 Winter Spring 12 Summer 12 Autumn 12 Winter Spring 13 Base: Winter , all likely to recruit or make redundancies in Q1 216 (n=738) Summer 13 Autumn 13 Winter Spring 14 Summer 14 Autumn 14 Overall net Winter Spring 15 Summer 15 Autumn 15 Winter Table 1: Net employment intentions for the next three months, by industry Sector Winter Autumn 215 % point change Private sector services (n=314) Manufacturing and production (n=74) Education (n=9) Public administration and defence (n=85) Healthcare (n=52) cipd.co.uk/labourmarketoutlook

7 Labour Market Outlook Winter Q1 216 recruitment intentions The proportion of employers that plan to hire staff in Q1 216 remains broadly consistent with previous reports. More than two-thirds (68%) of employers plan to hire staff in Q The proportion of public sector employers that plan to hire staff has increased to 8% from 75% over the past three months. In contrast, the proportion of private sector employers (65%) and voluntary sector employers (66%) that plan to hire staff has fallen very modestly compared with the autumn report. The differences between sectors are partly the result of differences in the size of distribution of organisations: the public sector contains few micro and small employers which, at any point in time, are less likely to be recruiting than organisations with hundreds or thousands of employees. Figure 3 Recruitment intentions, by sector (%) Spring 9 Summer 9 Autumn 9 Winter 9 1 Spring 1 Summer 1 Autumn 1 Winter 1 11 Spring 11 Summer 11 Autumn 11 Winter Spring 12 Summer 12 Autumn 12 Winter Spring 13 Summer 13 Autumn 13 Base: Winter (n=1,7), private sector (n=733), public sector (n=211), voluntary sector (n=64) Public sector Private sector Voluntary sector Overall net Winter Spring 14 Summer 14 Autumn 14 Winter Spring 15 Summer 15 Autumn 15 Winter Table 2: Is your organisation planning to recruit employees in the next THREE months? (%) Sector Winter Autumn 215 % point change Education (n=119) Public administration and defence (n=1) Private sector services (n=494) Manufacturing and production (n=137) Healthcare (n=69) cipd.co.uk/labourmarketoutlook 5

8 Employers planning to carry out redundancies in Q % Q1 216 redundancy intentions Redundancy intentions are unchanged compared with the previous report and remain very low by the survey s historical average. Around one in five employers (21%) plan to carry out redundancies in the first quarter of 216. It is perhaps no surprise that redundancy intentions are highest in the public sector (28%), unchanged compared with the autumn report. Meanwhile redundancy intentions have edged up in the private sector (2%). A similar proportion of voluntary sector employers also plan job cuts (18%). Figure 4 Redundancy intentions, by sector (%) Public sector Private sector Voluntary sector Overall net Spring 9 Summer 9 Autumn 9 Winter 9 1 Spring 1 Summer 1 Autumn 1 Winter 1 11 Spring 11 Summer 11 Autumn 11 Winter Spring 12 Summer 12 Autumn 12 Winter Spring 13 Summer 13 Autumn 13 Base: Winter (n=1,7), private sector (n=733), public sector (n=211), voluntary sector (n=64) Winter Spring 14 Summer 14 Autumn 14 Winter Spring 15 Summer 15 Autumn 15 Winter Table 3: Is your organisation planning to make any redundancies during the next THREE months? (%) Sector Winter Autumn 215 % point change Public administration and defence (n=1) Education (n=119) Private sector services (n=494) Healthcare (n=69) Manufacturing and production (n=137) cipd.co.uk/labourmarketoutlook

9 Labour Market Outlook Winter Migration outlook Consistent with the official migration statistics (ONS), which show a sharp increase in the number of EU migrants in employment in the UK, the proportion of employers that employ EU migrants has increased compared with three months ago. Reflecting the sharp growth in migrants from EU2 countries (Romania and Bulgaria) and EU8 countries (Poland, Lithuania, and so on) especially, half of organisations (5%) now say they employ migrant workers from these countries compared with 45% of organisations three months ago. In addition, the share of employers that employ EU14 migrants has increased from 4% to 46%. Just over a third of employers say they employ non-eu migrants (35%). This is broadly consistent with previous reports. Figure 5 Proportion of employers that employ migrant workers (%) Yes, my organisation currently employs pre-24 EU14 migrants (France, Germany, Italy, etc) Yes, my organisation currently employs post-24 EU migrants (Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Romania, Bulgaria, etc) Yes, my organisation currently employs non-eu migrants No, my organisation does not currently employ migrants Winter Autumn 215 Autumn 214 Summer 214 Base: Winter (n=1,7), private sector (n=733), public sector (n=211), voluntary sector (n=64) cipd.co.uk/labourmarketoutlook 7

10 Looking ahead, intentions to recruit migrant workers have strengthened. A fifth (2%) of employers intend to recruit migrant workers in Q1 216, up from 16% in Q The increase is especially high in the private sector, where more than a fifth of employers (21%) plan to recruit migrants compared with 15% of firms three months ago. Reflecting the robust demand for migrant workers, the share of migrants in UK establishments may increase further in the near term. The survey suggests that, among employers planning to recruit migrant workers, on average, more than a third (38%) of new recruits over the next three months will be migrant workers. The highest proportion of economic migrants are likely to come from the EU2 and EU8 countries, with an average 18% of new recruits among organisations that plan to recruit migrant workers expected to come from these countries. Figure 6 Migrant worker hiring intentions (%) Winter Autumn Summer Yes No Spring Don t know Base: Winter (n=1,7), private sector (n=733), public sector (n=211), voluntary sector (n=64) Figure 7 Nationality of new recruits (%) UK Pre-24 EU countries (France, Germany, Italy, etc) Post-24 EU countries (Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Romania, Bulgaria, etc) Non-EU countries Base: Winter , all employers that can estimate the nationality of new recruits in Q1 215 (n=191) 8 cipd.co.uk/labourmarketoutlook

11 Labour Market Outlook Winter Pay outlook Pay award expectations Consistent with other indicators, which suggest that wage growth may be weakening (Bank of England), median basic pay expectations have fallen to 1.2% from 2% since the previous report. The weakening pay outlook is due, in part, to the greater share of employers that plan a pay freeze in the 12 months to December 216 (Figure 9). In addition, according to the report s alternative pay indicator, mean basic pay expectations have decreased to 1.9% from 2.3%. The scale of these falls is significant because both measures have been broadly consistent over the past 18 months. At the same time, CIPD research recently reported that employees expect a median basic pay increase of 2% for themselves in 216. Median basic pay expectations remain subdued in the public and voluntary sectors (1%). Meanwhile basic pay expectations in the private sector in the 12 months to December 216 remain at 2%, unchanged from that in the 12 months to September 216. The smaller sample sizes and the narrow clustering of pay awards partly explain why the median pay growth projection for the private and public sectors have not fallen in line with the overall figure. However, mean basic pay expectations in the private sector have decreased to 2.4% from 2.9% in the past three months along with a fall in the public sector, down to.8% from 1%. Consistent with this trend, the voluntary sector has also seen a fall to 1.4% from 1.9%. As in previous reports, small and medium-sized organisations (those with fewer than 25 employees) have a higher median pay expectation (2%) than larger organisations (1%), which may reflect the preponderance of public sector employers among large organisations. Employers with a premium-quality service strategy are also likely to anticipate higher pay increases (median increase of 2%) than employers with a basic or standard approach to quality (1%). Figure 8 Median basic pay expectations, by sector (%) % 5 4 Public sector Private sector Voluntary sector Overall net Spring 12 Summer 12 Autumn 12 Winter Spring 13 Summer 13 Autumn 13 Winter Spring 14 Summer 14 Autumn 14 Winter Spring 15 Summer 15 Autumn 15 Winter Base: Winter (n=1,7), private sector (n=733), public sector (n=211), voluntary sector (n=64) cipd.co.uk/labourmarketoutlook 9

12 The fall in pay confidence is reflected in the distribution of pay awards, which reveals an increase in the proportion of organisations that plan to freeze pay. Around a fifth (19%) of employers plan to freeze pay in the 12 months to December 216, compared with 15% of organisations in the autumn 215 report. Another key driver in the weakening pay outlook is the fall in the proportion of employers that intend to give a pay award of 3% or more down from more than a quarter (26%) to just 8% of organisations in the current report. Almost half (49%) of employers say they expect their basic pay award to be between 1% and 1.99%, which is up from 29% in the autumn 215 report. Meanwhile, around a quarter (24%) say that their award will be within the % range, which is also broadly consistent with three months ago (27%). A pay divide may therefore be under way, between a substantial proportion of employers that award their staff a basic pay increase of between 1% and 3%, and a smaller, but growing share of employers that are stuck in a pay freeze. There is some uncertainty to this projection given that almost half (48%) of employers don t know the size of the pay increase or say it is hard to tell at this stage. Public sector employers are less likely than employers in the private (54%) or voluntary sectors (46%) to report they are unable to predict the likely direction of their next pay decision. Figure 9 Distribution of basic pay settlement expectations (%) Pay freeze Base: Winter , all employers that can give a basic pay award estimate, private sector (n=275), public sector (n=12), voluntary sector (n=28) 1 cipd.co.uk/labourmarketoutlook

13 Labour Market Outlook Winter Figure 1 Basic pay change as a result of pay reviews in the 12 months to December 215 (%) % Public sector Private sector Voluntary sector Don t know Increase We had a pay freeze Spring Summer 15 Autumn 15 Winter Spring 15 Summer 15 Autumn 15 Winter Spring Summer Autumn 15 Winter Decrease Base: Winter (n=1,7), private sector (n=733), public sector (n=211), voluntary sector (n=64) Pay awards in the past 12 months Overall, seven in ten (7%) employers have conducted a pay review within the last year. Of these, 68% increased pay, 2% froze pay, 2% cut pay and 9% could not specify an outcome. Overall, consistent with official statistics, both the median and mean basic pay indicators have fallen compared with the LMO autumn 215 report. The median basic pay award for the 12 months to December 215 fell to 1.9% from 2% for the 12 months to September 215. At the same time, the mean figure fell significantly to 1.8% from 2.9% during the same period. Around a quarter of employers reported that they gave a basic pay award of between 1% and 1.99% (25%), with a similar proportion awarding between 2% and 2.99% (28%). The number of employers reporting basic pay awards of 3% or more (22%) is also significantly higher than the proportion expecting to award this pay rise in the coming year (8%). The reasons behind the weakening wage growth may be partly explained by Figure 12, which sets out the dominant factors behind employers decision to award basic pay increases of less than 2% in the 12 months to December 215. Affordability remains the most popular reason, mentioned by 36% of all employers (see Figure 12), which is broadly consistent with previous reports. However, the proportion of private sector employers that cite affordability has fallen to 37% from 44%. In contrast, the proportion of employers that cite inflation, the increase in the National Minimum Wage or the Government s autoenrolment pensions scheme has risen fairly significantly since the previous report. The proportion of employers cipd.co.uk/labourmarketoutlook 11

14 that cite an anticipated continuation of the current rate of inflation has more than doubled to 13% from 6%. This figure includes almost one-fifth of private sector employers (18%). In addition, the proportion that think the current rate of inflation is acting as a brake on pay awards of 2% or more has risen to 17% from 13% over the past three months. This is consistent with Bank of England agents analysis, which reported that low inflation had started to offset upward pressures on pay from recruitment difficulties. The impact of the Government s autoenrolment pension scheme may also be having a larger effect on basic pay awards. The share of employers that say that the scheme is helping limit basic pay increases to less than 2% has increased to 17% from 1%. In addition, 14% of all employers cited the increase in the National Minimum Wage in October 215, including more than a fifth of private sector organisations (21%). Overall, the data support the CIPD s prediction that employers most popular response to extra labour costs, such as auto-enrolment, will be to curb basic pay awards. Additionally, imposed pay restraint is the reason given by around a third (%) of employers who didn t pay 2% or more. On the other hand, among employers who increased pay by 2% or more, the most common driver mentioned is an ability to pay more (mentioned by 4% of employers). Other key drivers include improved performance and productivity (mentioned by 28%), movements in market rates (mentioned by 25%), a desire to compensate for past pay restraint (mentioned by 23%) and recruitment and retention pressures (also mentioned by 23% of employers, see Figure 13). In addition, around a third (32%) of employers say that the cost pressures arising from the National Minimum Wage or National Living Wage are prominent in their decision to award a basic pay increase of 2% or more. Figure 11 Distribution of basic pay awards in the 12 months to December 215 (%) Pay freeze Base: Winter , all employers that can give a basic pay award (n=76), private sector (n=531), public sector (n=134), voluntary sector (n=4) 12 cipd.co.uk/labourmarketoutlook

15 Labour Market Outlook Winter Figure 12 Main reasons behind increasing basic pay by 2% or less in the 12 months to December 215 (%) Organisation s inability to pay more 36 Restraint on public sector pay Absorbing the cost of the introduction of auto-enrolment pensions scheme 17 Current offical rate of inflation Other labour costs (for example, National Insurance contributions, pensions contributions) Increase in National Minimum Wage in October Anticipated continuation of current rate of inflation Movement in market rates/the going rate of rises elsewhere 12 We have no recruitment and retention issues 8 Poor employee productivity and perfomance 6 Base: Winter , all employers that awarded a basic pay increase of 2% or more (n=319), private sector (n=286), public sector (n=16), voluntary sector (n=17) Figure 13 Main reasons behind increasing basic pay by 2% or more in the 12 months to December 215 (%) Organisation s ability to pay more 4 National Minimum Wage/Living Wage 32 Improved employee productivity and performance 28 Movement in market rates/the going rate of pay rises elsewhere 25 Recruitment and retention issues Pay catch-up, following modest pay increases, freezes or cuts in recent years Current official rate of inflation Union/staff pressures The ripple effect of higher salaries 1 11 Anticipated future increase in inflation rate 6 Base: Winter , all employers that awarded a basic pay increase of less than 2% (n=32), private sector (n=19), public sector (n=19), voluntary sector (n=21) cipd.co.uk/labourmarketoutlook 13

16 Sample and method Respondent profile Table 4: Breakdown of the sample, by sector (%) Sector Winter Autumn 215 Summer 215 Spring 215 Winter Autumn 214 Summer 214 Private Public Voluntary N 1,7 1, ,13 1,3 1,89 1,26 1,26 Spring 214 Table 5: Breakdown of the sample, by number of employees in organisation (%) Winter Autumn 215 Summer 215 Spring 215 Winter Autumn 214 Summer , 4, , 9, , 19, , or more N 1,7 1, ,13 1,3 1,89 1,26 1,26 Spring cipd.co.uk/labourmarketoutlook

17 Labour Market Outlook Winter Table 6: Breakdown of the sample, by industry (%) Winter Autumn 215 Summer 215 Spring 215 Winter Autumn 214 Summer 214 MANUFACTURING AND PRODUCTION Agriculture, forestry and fishing Manufacturing Construction Mining and extraction Energy and water supply EDUCATION Primary and secondary schools Further and higher education HEALTHCARE NHS Other private healthcare PRIVATE SECTOR SERVICES Hotels, catering and leisure IT industry Transport and storage Consultancy services Finance, insurance and real estate Wholesale and retail trade Information and communication Retail Professional, scientific and technical Admin and support service activities PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION AND DEFENCE Public administration central government Public administration local government, including fire services Spring Armed forces Quango cipd.co.uk/labourmarketoutlook 15

18 Survey method The fieldwork for the LMO survey is managed by YouGov Plc. This survey has been conducted using the bespoke YouGov online system, administered to members of the YouGov Plc GB panel who have agreed to take part in surveys and the CIPD membership. The survey is based on responses from 1,7 HR professionals and employers between 4 and 24 December 215. All respondents have HR responsibility within their organisation, which may or may not be their sole and primary function within their organisation. The sample is targeted to senior business leaders of senior officer level and above. An was sent to each respondent from the YouGov sample, who are selected at random from the base sample according to the sample definition, inviting them to take part in the survey and providing a link to the survey. Each member of the CIPD sample is invited to complete the survey. Respondents are given three weeks to reply and reminder s are sent to boost response rates (subject to the CIPD s re-contact policy). Weighting The quarterly LMO survey is sampled from the CIPD membership and through the YouGov panel of HR professionals. The data is weighted to be representative of the UK public and private sector business population by size of employer and sector. Rim weighting is applied using targets on size and sector drawn from the Business Population Estimates for the UK and Regions 212 (available at: uk/government/statistics/businesspopulation-estimates-for-the-uk-andregions-212). The delivered sample is drawn from across all business sizes and in total 62 unweighted responses were received from small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and 387 from HR professionals within large employers (25+ employees). References BANK OF ENGLAND S AGENTS. (216) Agents summary of business conditions. January 216 update. London: Bank of England. Available at: co.uk/publications/documents/ agentssummary/216/jan.pdf [Accessed 28 January 216]. OFFICE FOR NATIONAL STATISTICS. (216) UK labour market, January 216. Statistical Bulletin. London: ONS. Available at: gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-marketstatistics/january-216/statisticalbulletin.html?format=hi-vis [Accessed 28 January 216]. 16 cipd.co.uk/labourmarketoutlook

19 Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development 151 The Broadway London SW19 1JQ United Kingdom T +44 () F +44 () E cipd@cipd.co.uk W cipd.co.uk Incorporated by Royal Charter Registered as a charity in England and Wales (179797) and Scotland (SC45154) Issued: February 216 Reference: 7199 CIPD 216