Hans Groth Alfonso Sousa-Poza. Population Dynamics in Muslim Countries

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1

2 Understanding a complex field Population dynamics in the 21 st century Demographic trends in Muslim countries Country examples Solving the jigsaw

3 The world population grows at an unprecedented speed High variant Medium variant Low variant World population (in billions) Annual Population Growth Rates (in %) In the 21st century, Africa is the driving force of global population growth. Russia and many European countries will decline, the US continue to grow and Asia s growth will slow down.

4 Non-developed countries host increasingly larger populations than developed ones 3% 5% 11% 11% 7% 23% 74% 83% 82% Developed Emerging Least developed Developed Emerging Least developed Developed Emerging Least developed Out of the 15 most populous countries, the share of emerging and least developed countries increased strongly. By 2050, the USA will be the only developed country amongst the largest 15 nations.

5 The global governance mismatches with the nation sizes 70% 60% 50% 57% 49% 65% 55% UN Security Council IMF G20 G8 40% 30% 20% 10% 28% 21% 17% 12% 0% UN Security Council IMF G20 G Institutions and their representation of population The established global institutions are dispatched from demographic realities already today and in future even more.

6 Global population dynamics lead to geopolitical power shifts How can we justify not taking into account the voices of countries like Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania or Egypt? Which new alliances might emerge and which will become irrelevant? The increased size and efforts of emerging and developing economies to grow and to prosper will have important effects on international trade and fiscal policy decisions.

7 Understanding a complex field Population dynamics in the 21 st century Demographic trends in Muslim countries Country examples Solving the jigsaw

8 Almost 25% of the global population is Muslim Muslim population: Total: 1.6 billion (almost 25% of global population) Living in Muslimmajority countries: 1.3 billion Global concentration of Muslim population

9 Muslim population dynamics affect the whole world Muslim population vs the world Global population Organisation of the Islamic Conference EU-15, Norway & Switzerland 57 nations out of 193 countries on the globe - are over 50% Muslim and/or Member of the Islamic Conference. Demographic change in Muslim countries is a phenomenon with global implications but we know surprisingly little about it. Total population in 2010 and 2030 (in billions)

10 Demographic trends in Muslim countries - A jigsaw that needs assembling, piece by piece High diversity among Muslim countries makes it difficult to generalize the key issues that drive their social, political and economic changes. It is a complex jigsaw to assemble

11 How we assembled the Jigsaw Authorship Materials used 21 authors from 13 countries of which 13 Muslim scientists 8 country & 3 regional studies of MENA and Gulf Cooperation Council countries Deep-dive into burning topics Fertility, female education, youth bubble, labor markets, demographic dividend, political space Publication April 2012

12 Five key insights 1 Gender issues are a key driver of demographic trends 2 Relationship between Islam and demography is one factor and not the factor 3 Demographic dividend is the key to future welfare 4 Urgent need for education and job development 5 Rapid change is possible

13 Total Fertility Rates ( ) Muslim countries experienced an extraordinary decline in fertility rates 8.0 Niger 7.0 Mali Afghanistan Somalia Chad 6.0 Burkina Faso Nigeria Guinea Yemen Comoros 5.0 Sierra Leone Gambia Senegal Iraq Sudan Occupied Palestine Pakistan Mayotte 4.0 Djibouti Syria Tajikistan Jordan Western Sahara 3.0 Azerbaijan Egypt Malaysia Bahrain Qatar Saudi Arabia Uzbekistan Kazakhstan Bangladesh Libya Turkey Brunei Kuwait Algeria Kyrgyzstan Lebanon Morocco Oman 2.0 Turkmenistan Tunisia Indonesia UAE Iran Maldives Albania Total Fertility Rates ( ) Source: Eberstadt and Shah (2011) Total Fertility Rates versus

14 TFR ( ) Improvements in female education strongly affects fertility Niger Mali Burkina Faso Chad Senegal Guinea Gambia Iraq Saudi Arabia Oman 4.0 Jordan Algeria Egypt UAE Lybia 3.0 Bangladesh Morocco Indonesia Malaysia Kyrgizistan Kuwait Turkey Tunisia Iran % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Female secondary enrolment (1997) Total Fertility Rates and female education

15 Islam has an ambiguous impact on demographics Political factors are more important in the determination of pro- and anti-natalist policies than the Islam. Religious leaders still exert a large social influence, crucial for the implementation of those policies. Discrimination against women in education is due to local traditions, not religious teachings.

16 The Arab world also faces an ageing population Total Fertility Rate Crude Mortality Rate Population 65+ in million Life expectancy at birth Total Fertility Rate, Crude Mortality Rate, aged population and life expectancy for Muslim countries How to meet the needs of the ageing population with the Muslim countries present low income levels?

17 Family support to elderly people is not a given anymore The demographic, cultural, social, and economic challenges brought about by modernity compromise family cohesion and threaten old-age security. Especially for countries with rapidly changing family structures due to large decreases in fertility rates and increasing rates of youth emigration. Public institutions increasingly need to find ways of taking care of those who don t benefit from family care and security anymore.

18 A Demographic dividend emerges in Muslim countries %-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Male Female %-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Male Female -10%-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Iran s population in 1986 Iran s population in 1996 Iran s population in 2006 Resulting from a rapid increase of the working-age population and lower dependency ratios, a window of opportunity with the potential of economic growth and prosperity for the Muslim countries is materializing Male Female

19 Muslim countries need to capture the demographic dividend before it is too late 13 Muslim countries will see their workingage populations peak already before 2050 Key factors driving economic growth must be addressed now: Expansion of education (private sector skills fitting the needs of a global economy) Creation of job opportunities Amelioration of the investment climate through strong governance and political transparence

20 Algeria Egypt Libya Mauritania Morocco Tunisia North Africa South Africa World OECD Brazil China Jobs for the youth and for the women need to be created 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 5% 8% 11% 11% 11% 9% 21% 23% 26% 30% 32% Female Male 20% 10% 0% 31% 33% 7% 15% 29% 30% 29% 31% 22% 37% 37% 38% 39% Employment rate (in % of working age population) of Northern African countries versus others 100 million new jobs are needed till 2030 for the demographic dividend to be captured.

21 Rapid change is possible 73% fertility rate decrease within 20 years in Iran Religious authorities support contraception Women outnumber men at Universities Average wedding age of women is increasing

22 The challenges at hand are heavy in consequences Demographic dividend, despite being an exciting opportunity, is also a profound challenge. Gaps in education, skills and job opportunities must be addressed immediately, especially for young people and women. Consequences of not meeting these needs are already being seen in the revolutionary waves rippling throughout the Muslim world.

23 Understanding a complex field Population dynamics in the 21 st century Demographic trends in Muslim countries Country examples Solving the jigsaw

24 Iran the golden opportunity Total Fertility Rate %-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% -10%-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% -10%-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Male Female Male Female Male Female Population 1986 Population 1996 Population 2006 Young age structure and expansion of education open up a demographic window of opportunity. The decrease in fertility is due to free contraceptives issued by government and due to rise in female education. Current economical and political situation may hinder the achievement of future prosperity.

25 Nigeria the giant of Africa Total population (in millions) % -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Male Female Population pyramid 2010 Four main challenges to the opening of a demographic window: 1) Immense diversity ethnicities & 500 distinct languages 2) Great oil wealth while population lives on USD 1,25 per day 3) Weak health care system: 1 doctor per 3900 people

26 Nigeria the giant of Africa 4) Massive urbanization between 1952 and 1991 led to a concentration of poverty where 50% of population lives. In Lagos, the 2nd largest city in SSA, people started building islands out of garbage.

27 Jordan and Jemen witnesses of the Arab spring Youth bulge in both countries, but negative perspectives about the future led to the Arab spring [Start in Tunisia, Dec. 2010] Young people are rejecting oppression from family, clans and government in all vital matters of their lives Region will not prosper if patriarchal mindset prevails and justice and dignity remains right of a few and of men only

28 Egypt Education and employment or poverty 17% % 52% 83% Female Male Employed Unemployed Total Fertility Rate Crude Death Rate Youth unemployment rate 2007 Total Fertility Rate and Crude Death Rate Declining fertility and mortality rate lead open up potential for demographic dividend, which might be deteriorated due to problems in education and youth employment: Extremely low female education rate 17% of pupils do not finish basic education 25% unemployment rate amongst young people

29 Turkey Two different natalist approaches opened up demographic window of opportunity % 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2.3% 1.7% 1.4% 1.1% 0.8% 0.5% Total Fertility Rate Infant Mortality Rate Population growth rate (in % of total population) Pronatalist policies (50ies) Prohibition of contraceptives 25% of all newborn children did not survive the first year Antinatalist policies (60ies) Population planning lack of 1965 Population growth rate declined after 1965

30 Pakistan women as the game changer Male 82 Working age Labor force Current and projected working age population versus actual labor force by gender Female 40 Country can benefit from a period of favorable age structure and declining dependency ratios, if: Education and employment of women are fostered, which will be the key to future prosperity of the country A large number of additional jobs are created to satisfy the growing demand

31 Middle-East and Northern Africa empower the youth No homogeneity: Diverse economies and populations are at a different stage of the transition from high to low fertility Demographic transition Low proportion of children High proportion of workingage citizens Poverty Political, social and economical systems do not meet needs of youth Specific investments by government and civil societies to: Improve quality of education and reduce unemployment Foster establishment of youth policy (youth specific surveys) and youth specific institutions (higher council for youth)

32 Indonesia the demographic mosaic 0-39% 40-69% 70-89% % Muslim population in % of total Total population (in millions) Fourth largest country in the world and home to the largest Islamic population in the world (207 million Muslims) Country is unified by religion & highly fragmented in structures and organizations (governments, political parties, universities) Fragmentation raises problems to homogeneous and controlled demographic planning policies.

33 Understanding a complex field Population dynamics in the 21 st century Demographic trends in Muslim countries Country examples Solving the jigsaw

34 Solving the jigsaw Improvements in welfare, health, development and stability by untapping the huge potential of both the youth bulge and women could be the best solution for countering radicalization, social unrest, and even terrorism.

35 The time to act is now! AWARENESS CAUSALITY TRUST INTERACTION ORGANIZATION NOW Source: 2010 WDA Forum Expert Congress

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