Volkswagen: Facing the Challenge. Hans Dieter Pötsch, Member of the Board of Management Volkswagen Aktiengesellschaft

Transcription

1 Volkswagen: Facing the Challenge Hans Dieter Pötsch, Member of the Board of Management Volkswagen Aktiengesellschaft Zurich, 9 March 2009

2 Volkswagen: Facing the Challenge to

3 Highlights 2008 Volkswagen Group achieves significant goals despite dramatic deterioration in the operating environment Scania consolidated as the Group s ninth brand Operating profit exceeds the high level of the previous year Board of Management and Supervisory Board propose an increased dividend Deliveries up year-on-year; worldwide gains in market share Automotive Division reported positive net cash flow (excl. Scania) Net liquidity in the Automotive Division remained high 3

4 World car market Q1 to Q4 / 2008 and Full Year comparison to 2007 in % 8% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan - Dec cumulative 4% +2.6% 0% -0.1% -4% -8% -6.9% -5.8% -12% -16% -20% -19.2% -24% World car market 4

5 World car market vs. Volkswagen Group deliveries to customers Q1 to Q4 / 2008 and Full Year comparison to 2007 in % 8% 4% 0% Q1 +2.6% +7.0% Q2 Q3 Q4 +4.8% +0.1% -0.1% 1) Jan - Dec cumulative +1.1% 1) -4% -8% -6.9% -7.2% 1) -5.8% -12% -16% -20% -19.2% -24% 1) Q3, Q4 and Full Year 2008 including Scania (from July 22 December 31, 2008) World car market Volkswagen Group - deliveries to customers 5

6 World car markets and deliveries to customers January - December 2008 (comparison to 2007 in %) 1) North America Car market VW Group Western Europe Car market VW Group Eastern Europe +10.2% +12.9% -5.2% -3.9% -15.9% -8.4% Car market - VW Konzern Asia Pacific VW Group South America +11.4% +3.3% +7.9% +2.3% Car market VW Group Car market VW Group 1) Scania: July 22 December 31,

7 Volkswagen Group deliveries to customers by market January December units 1) January December 2007 January December , , % 6,190 6,257 5, , % 3, ,112 2,989 2, , Volkswagen Group 1) Scania: July 22 December 31, 2008 Western Europe +11.4% +7.9% +12.9% -5.2% 1,053 1, % Eastern Europe North America South America Asia Pacific South Africa 7

8 Volkswagen Group deliveries to customers by brands January December units 1) January December 2007 January December , , % 6,190 6,257 5, , % 3,663 3,668 3, , , Volkswagen Group Volkswagen Passenger Car % 1, % % % % 503 Audi Škoda Seat Bentley Commercial Vehicles 31 Scania 1) 1) Scania: July 22 December 31,

9 Volkswagen Group Headline figures /- in % Deliveries to customers 1) '000 units 6, Production 1) '000 units 6,347 6, Sales revenue million 113, , Operating profit million 6,333 6, Profit before tax million 6,608 6, Profit after tax million 4,688 4, Automotive division 2) Cash flows from operating activities million 8,771 13, Cash flows from investing activities 3) million 11,450 6, Net cash flow million -2,679 7,125 x Net liquidity at December 31 million 8,039 13, ) Volume data including the vehicle production investments Shanghai-Volkswagen Automotive Company Ltd. and FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Company Ltd. 2) Including allocation of consolidation adjustments between the Automotive and Financial Services divisions. 3) Excluding acquisition and disposal of equity investments: 8,879 million ( 5,681 million). 9

10 Outlook 2009 Volkswagen Group in 000 units / million ) Deliveries to customers 5,079 5,243 5,733 6,189 6,257 Sales revenue 88,963 93, , , ,808 Operating profit 2,037 2) 2,889 2) 4,383 6,151 6,333 1) Restated; 2) before special items. In 2009 we assume that the Volkswagen Group will be unable to escape the downward trend, although we believe we will perform better than the market as a whole and will be able to gain additional market share during the crisis. The Group s sales revenue in 2009 will be lower than in the previous year because of the decline in volume sales. Rising refinancing costs and a worsening in the country mix will serve as an additional drag on earnings. Volkswagen will counter this trend in particular through disciplined cost and investment management and the continuous optimization of its processes. Ecological relevance and the return on our vehicle projects are the core elements of the 18 plus strategy. The high volatility of market developments does not currently permit any reliable forecasts to be made for fiscal year Based on the extremely weak business at the beginning of the year, earnings will not reach the high levels of previous years. 10

11 Volkswagen: Facing the Challenge to

12 Currency impact from weak dollar and weak pound $ / Euro Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Euro / GBP Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 12

13 Funding in difficult times 5-year Credit Default Swap Premiums in bp Volkswagen AG Competitor 1 Competitor Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Source: Bloomberg 13

14 Evolution of steel price* EUR, USD per ton USD per ton EUR per ton 0 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 *) Hot-Rolled Band Western Europe Status: 02/2008 Source : LME 14

15 Heading towards a fully-fledged product portfolio Product portfolio Western Europe 2009 Estate MPV Van SUV Coupé Cabrio Hatchback Notchback Roadster E D C B New segments 2009 A A0 A00 15

16 Volkswagen s fuel and powertrain strategy Renewable Hydrogen (regenerative) Electricity Fuel Cell Electrotraction From Natural Gas From Oil SunFuel Cellulose-Ethanol SynFuel Diesel Fuel Gasoline CNG Hybrid DSG TSI TDI 16

17 Volkswagen Group: Models with Low Fuel Consumption 4 models 100 g CO 2 /km 29 models 120 g CO2/km 132 models 140 g CO 2 /km 132 models 140 g CO 2 /km Status: 03/09 17

18 BlueMotionTechnologies environmentally friendly products and technologies under one umbrella brand Umbrella brand encompassing all productionready and near-production technologies that contribute toward saving fuel and reducing CO 2 and other emissions Excellent products with regard to their fuel efficiency and emissions Additional technologies that are exceptionally environmentally friendly Energy efficient basic technologies already available on all models today 18

19 DSG double clutch transmission CO 2 - emissions in comparison 6 / 7 gear, wet / dry clutch fuel consumption lower than with manual gearbox shorter switching without interruption of traction gearshift with highest comfort relation [%] % - 14 % 100 automatic (4-gear) (6-gear) DSG (6-gear) manual DSG (7-gear) 19

20 Volkswagen Way: Value-driven, synchronized Group Production System Continuous Improvement Process Process Optimization Product Optimization Wave 1: Wave 2: Wave 3: Wave 4: Step 1 Direct area / production Step 2 Step 3 Indirect area / administration Product process prior to SOP Supplier management / logistic chain 20

21 Polo: Production time reduction Production time 20% Polo IV Polo V 21

22 Volkswagen: Facing the Challenge to

23 BRIC Markets: Foundations for future growth VW Group China Brazil Russia India Deliveries 2007 ( 000) Jan. Dec , Plants Top 3 sellers Jetta Santana Passat Gol Fox Saveiro Octavia Passat Touareg Fabia Octavia (new) Octavia Localisation rate: 60-90% 80-90% reduce imported components by 30% 80% until

24 USA a growth market for the Volkswagen Group Volkswagen Brand USA 2018: 800,000 units Total market million units Local production in the US 300,000 units Import from Mexico 375,000 units Chattanooga Import from Europe 125,000 units Market share VW Group in % >6 Deliveries million units 1.0 Puebla Export 125,000 units VW 0.1 Audi 0.8 VW 0.2 Audi

25 MQB as basis for profitable growth Development from multi-platform strategy to one modular matrix Today Future B A AO MQB benefits: Significant reduction in capex and R&D Double-digit percentage cost reduction Higher product flexibility Body 40% 30% Body Platform 60% 70% MQB Modules 25

26 Volkswagen: Facing the challenges External challenges Sharp fall in global demand Credit crunch Changing consumer priorities Diverse emission regulations Unfavorable exchange rates High raw material and energy prices Our opportunities Unique brand and product portfolio High quality standards Technological leadership Strong global footprint/good exposure to emerging markets FS extends automotive value chain Increased local production/ natural hedge Product cost savings through toolkit systems, scale economies in purchasing, and productivity gains Strong cost control and capital discipline 26

27 APPENDIX

28 Volkswagen Golf VI 28

29 Audi A1 Sportback Concept 29

30 Audi A5 Cabriolet 30

31 Škoda Yeti 31

32 Seat Exeo ST 32

33 Bentley Continental Supersports 33

34 Lamborghini Murciélago LP SuperVeloce 34

35 Volkswagen Caddy Life 4Motion 35

36 Scania R

37 Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements and information on the business development of the Volkswagen Group. These statements may be spoken or written and can be recognized by terms such as expects, anticipates, intends, plans, believes, seeks, estimates, will or words with similar meaning. These statements are based on assumptions relating to the development of the economies of individual countries, and in particular of the automotive industry, which we have made on the basis of the information available to us and which we consider to be realistic at the time of going to press. The estimates given involve a degree of risk, and the actual developments may differ from those forecast. Consequently, any unexpected fall in demand or economic stagnation in our key sales markets, such as in Western Europe (and especially Germany) or in the USA, Brazil or China, will have a corresponding impact on the development of our business. The same applies in the event of a significant shift in current exchange rates relative to the US dollar, sterling, yen, Brazilian real, Chinese rinminbi and Czech koruna. If any of these or other risks occur, or if the assumptions underlying any of these statements prove incorrect, the actual results may significantly differ from those expressed or implied by such statements. We do not update forward-looking statements retrospectively. Such statements are valid on the date of publication and can be superceded. 37