Rating Action: Moody's takes rating actions on 11 Turkish banks Global Credit Research - 03 Jun 2014

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1 Rating Action: Moody's takes rating actions on 11 Turkish banks Global Credit Research - 03 Jun 2014 London, 03 June Moody's Investors Service has today taken rating actions on 11 Turkish banks. The two key drivers of the rating action are (1) pressures on the standalone credit strength of some of the institutions; and (2) Moody's reassessment of the level of systemic support that it believes should be incorporated into some of the banks' senior ratings. Today's rating actions conclude the reviews for downgrade initiated in March Issuers affected by this rating action are: Akbank T.A.S.; Asya Katilim Bankasi A.S.; Denizbank A.S.; Sekerbank T.A.S.; T.C. Ziraat Bankasi A.S.; Turk Ekonomi Bankasi A.S.; Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S.; Turkiye Halk Bankasi A.S.; Turkiye Is Bankasi A.S.; Turkiye Vakiflar Bankasi T.A.O.; Yapi Ve Kredi Bankasi A.S.. A summary of today's actions is available at which is an integral part of this press release and identifies each affected issuer. RATINGS RATIONALE --- STANDALONE CREDIT STRENGTH The first driver of the rating actions reflects Moody's assessment regarding pressures on some Turkish banks' standalone credit strength, as a result of an increasingly challenging operating environment, which is expected to persist for the next months due to (1) a slowdown in real GDP growth; (2) higher funding costs; and (3) a climate of uncertainty affecting the banks. Moody's expects that, in these conditions, Turkish banks' asset quality and profitability will weaken and that liquidity will tighten. Additionally, the banks will increasingly need to adapt to a capital-optimising lending model, against the background of moderate GDP growth and persistently high funding costs, coupled with weakening capital adequacy, as credit growth outpaces internal capital generation. The highly unseasoned loan books add further elements of credit risk. Moody's also says that the future growth of the banking system will increasingly depend on market funding, which increases banks' sensitivity to investor sentiment and wholesale market dynamics. Moody's forecasts lower near-term GDP growth and growing uncertainty about medium-term growth trends. The rating agency forecasts that GDP growth will slow to 2.5% in 2014 and 2.9% in 2015 from 4% last year. Meanwhile, higher funding costs have arisen from (1) the impact that the US Federal reserve's tapering programme is having on emerging markets; and (2) the economic recovery in developed markets. Both these factors are tightening global liquidity. Furthermore, uncertainty stems from Turkey's above-target inflation, exchange-rate volatility, and the impact of current political developments. --- SENIOR DEBT AND DEPOSIT RATINGS The second driver of the rating actions is Moody's reduced expectation of the level of systemic support, which it believes should be incorporated in Turkish banks' deposit and senior debt ratings. This view takes into account the fact that the banking system and its financial obligations have grown significantly in relation to GDP in recent years, and will continue to do so, increasing the potential cost of any government support, in case of need. The charged domestic political environment and less predictable policy responses add additional elements of uncertainty. Moody's review assessed Turkey as a supportive country toward its banking system; however, the sovereign rating now marks the highest rating that a Turkish bank can achieve through systemic support. This assessment reflects the fact that the banks' higher reliance on market funds has eroded some of the banking system's previously strong elements of protection against market turbulence. Furthermore, since 2010, the system's leverage has gradually increased to 9x from 8x (Tier 1 ratio declined to 13.4% from 17.1%) as growth has outpaced internal capital generation. As at year-end 2013, the Turkish banking system's total assets and loans had grown by 72% and 99%, respectively, since 2010, resulting in higher reliance on market funds and a shift from liquid assets to loans, thereby raising the loan-to deposit-ratio to 114% as at year-end 2013 (88%: year-end 2010).

2 Overall, Moody's views the above-mentioned developments as manageable for Turkish banks. However, as the banking system continues to grow, the rating agency notes that the potential cost of any government support, in case of need, will increase, reducing the predictability of policy responses in such a situation. --- NATIONAL SCALE RATINGS For three banks, Moody's downgraded the NSRs as they map directly to the banks' global local-currency (GLC) deposit ratings, which were downgraded. For one bank, Moody's confirmed the NSRs following the confirmation of the bank's GLC deposit ratings. --- FOREIGN-CURRENCY SUBORDINATED DEBT RATINGS Rating actions on the subordinated debt ratings of the affected banks follow the rating actions on the banks' adjusted BCAs which, in most cases, are equivalent to the banks' standalone BCAs (subordinated debt ratings are positioned one notch below the relevant adjusted BCAs). WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATINGS UP/DOWN Rating-stabilising factors over the next months could include any evidence of improvement in the operating environment and external liquidity conditions available towards emerging markets, and Turkey in particular. These developments would strengthen the banking system's performance. Conversely, further downward pressure on the banks' ratings could develop if (1) the operating environment causes further significant deterioration in profitability or asset quality; or (2) market access becomes increasingly restricted or costly for a prolonged period. A lowering of banks' BCAs -- or a lower level of systemic support incorporated in the banks' ratings -- could prompt a downgrade of the long-term deposit and debt ratings. A downgrade of Turkey's government bond rating would also lead to a downgrade of some banks' debt and deposit ratings. LIST OF TODAY'S RATING ACTIONS Moody's took the following rating actions today: --- Akbank TAS BFSR affirmed at D+ BCA lowered to ba1 from baa3 Long- and short-term LC deposit ratings downgraded to Baa3/Prime-3 from Baa2/Prime-2 Long- and short-term FC deposit ratings confirmed at Baa3/Prime-3 LC and FC senior debt rating downgraded to Baa3 from Baa2 The deposit and senior debt ratings carry a negative outlook, in line with the sovereign bond rating, while the BFSR carries a stable outlook The downgrade of Akbank's LC deposit ratings and LC and FC senior debt ratings reflects (1) the lowering of bank's standalone BCA; and (2) Moody's adjusted systemic support assumptions. The FC deposit ratings were confirmed at Baa3/P-3, being previously constrained at those levels by the applicable sovereign ceiling. The LC and FC senior ratings are now fully aligned. The bank's senior ratings benefit from one notch of rating uplift, due to systemic support, from its BCA of ba1. The lowering of the BCA reflects the operating environment pressures and the rating agency's expectation of a weakening trend in the bank's credit profile, as loan growth will continue to outpace internal capital generation. The stable outlook on the BFSR reflects Moody's view that the bank, however has significant resilience to the operating environment, supported by its strong franchise, strong core capital base, granular deposit funding profile with moderate reliance on market funds. --- Asya Katilim Bankasi A.S. (Bank Asya) BFSR lowered to D- from D

3 BCA lowered to ba3 from ba2 Long-term LC and FC deposit ratings downgraded to Ba2 from Ba1 FC subordinated debt rating (issued under Asya Sukuk Company Limited) downgraded to B1 from Ba3 NSR downgraded to A3.tr/TR-2 from A2.tr/TR-1 The LC and FC deposit ratings carry a negative outlook, in line with the sovereign bond rating, while the BFSR and FC subordinated debt rating carry a stable outlook. The downgrade of the senior ratings of Bank Asya follows the lowering of the BCA and continue to include one notch of rating uplift, due to systemic support. The lowering of the BCA reflects operating environment pressures and credit challenges specific to the bank. These include its deposit base volatility early in the year that resulted in a 15% reduction in the balance sheet in the first quarter of 2014, weak asset quality with NPLs and impaired loans significantly above the system average, and tighter liquidity indicators. The stable outlook on the BFSR reflects the bank's solid core Tier 1 capital and the increased deposit-base granularity, which reduces sensitivity to future depositors' behaviour. The downgrade of the FC subordinated debt rating and its stable outlook follow the downgrade of bank's BFSR that resulted in the lowering of the BCA by one notch, as the subordinated debt rating is positioned one notch below the BCA. --- Denizbank A.S. BFSR lowered to D- from D+ BCA lowered to ba3 from ba1 Long and short-term LC and FC deposit ratings to Ba1/Not-Prime from Baa3/Prime-3 The outlook on all the ratings is stable. The downgrade of the senior ratings reflects the lowering of the BCA, and Moody's assessment of a high probability of parental support from majority shareholder Sberbank (deposits Baa1 under review for downgrade, BFSR D+, stable/bca baa3). This provides two notches of rating uplift to the deposit rating. Moody's assumption of a high probability of systemic support does not provide additional rating uplift. The downgrade of the BFSR by two notches reflects the operating environment pressures and Moody's view of Denizbank's evolving risk management based on (1) increasing levels of commercial lending with new product offerings; and (2) high loan-book growth that could pose challenges in the form of processes and controls. Additionally, Moody's considers that Denizbank's very lean capitalisation, with a Tier 1 ratio of 8% (system average of 13%), provides a limited buffer against potential losses. Furthermore, without periodic capital injections from Sberbank, the bank's franchise expansion plans would be challenged. The stable outlook reflects that Moody's expectation that the weakening trend of the bank's credit profile should remain contained, consistent with the assigned BCA level and the stable outlook on Sberbank's BFSR. --- Sekerbank T.A.S. BFSR lowered to D- from D BCA lowered to ba3 from ba2 Long-term LC and FC deposit ratings downgraded to Ba2 from Ba1 NSR downgraded to A3.tr/TR-2 from A2.tr/TR-1 The outlook on all the ratings is negative. The downgrade of the LC and FC deposit ratings and the NSR reflects the lowering of the bank's BCA, and these ratings continue to benefit from one notch of rating uplift, due to systemic support. The negative outlook reflects the negative outlook on the sovereign bond rating and Sekerbank's BFSR. The downgrade of Sekerbank's BFSR and its negative outlook reflect its weak capital position, asset-quality

4 erosion and its more vulnerable loan-segment composition. Furthermore, as a result of high operational and credit costs, the bank's bottom-line profitability indicator lags the system average, despite strong margins. --- T.C. Ziraat Bankasi AS (Ziraat) BFSR confirmed at D+ BCA maintained at ba1 Long and short-term LC deposit ratings downgraded to Baa3/Prime-3 from Baa2/Prime-2 Long and short-term FC deposit ratings confirmed at Baa3/Prime-3 The outlook on all the ratings is negative. The downgrade of the LC deposit ratings reflects Moody's adjusted systemic support assumptions. The confirmation of the FC deposit ratings at Baa3/Prime-3, reflects it being previously constrained at those levels by the applicable sovereign ceiling. The LC and FC senior ratings are now fully aligned. The senior ratings benefit from one notch of rating uplift, due to systemic support, from its BCA of ba1. The negative outlook on the ratings reflects the negative outlook on the BFSR and the government bond rating. The confirmation of the BFSR, with the BCA maintained at ba1, reflects Ziraat's strong nationwide franchise, solid granular core deposit funding profile -- with low reliance on market funding -- and its moderate asset quality. The negative outlook on the BFSR reflects Moody's view of Ziraat's evolving risk-management practices based on (1) increasing levels of commercial lending with new product offerings, particularly in consumer credit; and (2) high loan book growth that could pose challenges in the form of processes and controls. --- Turk Ekonomi Bankasi AS BFSR lowered to D from D+ BCA lowered to ba2 from ba1 Long and short-term LC and FC deposit ratings confirmed at Baa3/Prime-3 The outlook on FC deposit rating is negative and on remaining ratings is stable. The confirmation of the LC and FC deposit ratings reflects Moody's assessment of a high probability of support from majority shareholder BNP Paribas group (deposits A1 negative, BFSR C-, stable/bca baa1), which offsets the impact on senior ratings of the one notch lowering of the BCA. Turk Ekonomi Bankasi's deposit ratings now benefit from two notches of rating uplift from parental support (one previously) from its BCA of ba2. The downgrade of the BFSR by one notch reflects the expected impact of the operating environment pressures. Moody's also believes that Turk Ekonomi Bankasi is at a disadvantage compared with higher-rated peers. This is because of (1) its leaner (but adequate) Tier 1 capital level; (2) moderate operational efficiency and market share; (3) and weaker bottom-line profitability. The stable outlook on the BFSR reflects Moody's view that the bank's assigned BFSR reflects its resilience to the challenges of the operating environment. The gradual improving trend in the operational efficiency of the bank should limit the deterioration in the credit profile of the bank. The negative outlook on the FC deposit rating reflects the negative outlook on Turkish government bond rating and is constrained by it. The stable outlook on Turk Ekonomi Bankasi's remaining ratings reflects the stable outlook on the bank's and its parent's BFSRs. --- Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS (Garanti) BFSR affirmed at D+ BCA lowered to ba1 from baa3 Long and short-term LC deposit ratings downgraded to Baa3/Prime-3 from Baa2/Prime-2 Long and short-term FC deposit ratings confirmed at Baa3/Prime-3 LC and FC senior debt ratings downgraded to Baa3 from Baa2

5 Long-term NSR downgraded to Aa3.tr from Aa2.tr, short-term NSR confirmed at TR-1 The deposit and senior debt ratings carry a negative outlook in line with the sovereign bond rating, while the BFSR carries a stable outlook. The downgrade of Garanti's LC deposit ratings and LC and FC senior debt ratings reflects (1) the lowering of bank's standalone BCA; and (2) Moody's adjusted systemic support assumptions. The FC deposit ratings were confirmed at Baa3/P-3, being previously constrained at those levels by the applicable sovereign ceiling. The LC and FC ratings are now fully aligned. The bank's senior ratings benefit from one notch of rating uplift, due to systemic support, from its BCA of ba1. The lowering of the BCA reflects the operating environment pressures and the rating agency's expectation of a weakening trend in the bank's credit profile, as loan growth will continue to outpace internal capital generation. The stable outlook on the BFSR reflects Moody's view that the bank is however resilient to the operating environment, supported by its strong franchise, strong core capital base, and granular deposit funding profile with low reliance to market funds. --- Turkiye Halk Bankasi A.S. (Halk Bank) BFSR affirmed at D+ BCA lowered to ba1 from baa3 Long- and short-term LC deposit ratings downgraded to Baa3/Prime-3 from Baa2/Prime-2 Long- and short-term FC deposit ratings confirmed at Baa3/Prime-3 FC senior debt rating downgraded to Baa3 from Baa2 The deposit and senior debt ratings carry a negative outlook, in line with the sovereign bond rating, while the BFSR carries a stable outlook. The downgrade of Halk Bank's LC deposit and FC senior debt ratings reflects (1) the lowering of bank's standalone BCA; and (2) Moody's adjusted systemic support assumptions. The FC deposit ratings were confirmed at Baa3/P-3, being previously constrained at those levels by the applicable rating ceiling. The LC and FC senior ratings are now fully aligned. The bank's senior ratings benefit from systemic support, resulting in a onenotch of rating uplift, due to systemic support, from its BCA of ba1. The lowering of the BCA reflects the operating environment pressures and the rating agency's expectation of a weakening trend in the bank's credit profile, as loan growth will continue to outpace internal capital generation. The affirmation of Halk Bank's BFSR with a stable outlook reflects Moody's view that, despite the expected deterioration in the bank's performance caused by the challenging operating environment, Moody's views the bank as having more inherent resilience to the operating environment, supported by its strong franchise, loan book composition, strong core capital base, and granular deposit funding profile with low reliance to market funds. --- Turkiye Is Bankasi AS (Isbank) BFSR affirmed at D+ BCA lowered to ba1 from baa3 Long and short-term LC deposit ratings downgraded to Baa3/Prime-3 from Baa2/Prime-2 Long and short-term FC deposits ratings confirmed at Baa3/Prime-3 FC senior debt rating downgraded to Baa3 from Baa2 FC subordinated debt rating downgraded to Ba2 from Ba1 All senior ratings carry a negative outlook in line with the sovereign bond rating, while the BFSR and the subordinated debt rating carry a stable outlook. The downgrade of Isbank's LC deposit and FC senior debt ratings reflects (1) the lowering of bank's standalone BCA within the current BFSR category; and (2) Moody's adjusted systemic support assumptions as discussed

6 above. The FC deposit ratings were confirmed at Baa3/P-3, being previously constrained by the applicable sovereign ceiling. LC and FC senior ratings are now fully aligned. The senior ratings of the bank benefit from one notch of rating uplift, due to systemic support, from its BCA. The lowering of the BCA reflects the operating environment pressures and the rating agency's expectation of a weakening trend in the bank's credit profile, as loan growth will continue to outpace internal capital generation, exerting pressure on Tier 1 capital levels. The affirmation of the BFSR with a stable outlook reflects Moody's view that, despite the expected deterioration in the bank's performance caused by the challenging operating environment, Moody's views the bank as having more inherent resilience to the operating environment, supported by its strong franchise, loan book composition, strong core capital base, and granular deposit funding profile with low reliance to market funds. --- Turkiye Vakiflar Bankasi TAO (Vakifbank) BFSR confirmed at D+ BCA maintained at ba1 Long and short-term LC deposit ratings downgraded to Baa3/Prime-3 from Baa2/Prime-2 Long and short-term FC deposit ratings confirmed at Baa3/Prime-3 FC senior debt rating downgraded to Baa3 from Baa2 FC subordinated debt ratings confirmed at Ba2 The outlook on all ratings is negative. The downgrade of Vakifbank's LC deposit and FC senior debt ratings reflects Moody's adjusted systemic support assumptions, where the senior ratings benefit from one notch of rating uplift, due to systemic support, from its BCA of ba1. The confirmation of the FC deposit ratings at Baa3/P-3, reflects it being previously constrained at those levels by the applicable rating ceiling. LC and FC senior ratings are now fully aligned. The confirmation of the subordinated debt rating follows the confirmation of Vakifbank's BFSR (equivalent to a BCA of ba1). The subordinated debt rating is positioned one notch below the BCA. The negative outlook on the ratings reflects the negative outlook on the BFSR and the sovereign bond rating. The confirmation of the BFSR, with the BCA maintained at ba1, reflects Vakifbank's established franchise, stable core deposit funding profile with moderate reliance to market funding and its modest asset quality that benefits from a low level of restructured loans and those under close monitoring. The negative outlook on the BFSR reflects Moody's view of Vakifbank's weaker capital position amongst its rated domestic peers and its lower capital quality. This will likely affect its capacity to retain earnings for future capital growth given the comparatively higher cost of capital for its mixed capital, consisting of equity and subordinated debt components. --- Yapi Ve Kredi Bankasi AS (YapiKredi) BFSR confirmed at D+ BCA maintained at ba1 Long and short-term LC and the FC deposit ratings confirmed at Baa3/Prime-3 Long-term FC senior debt rating confirmed at Baa3 FC subordinated debt rating confirmed at Ba2 NSR confirmed at A1.tr/TR-1 The outlook on all ratings is negative. The confirmation of LC and FC deposit ratings and FC senior debt ratings reflects Moody's confirmation of YapiKredi's BFSR and the rating agency's adjusted systemic support assumptions that result in one notch of rating uplift, due to systemic support, from its BCA. The confirmation of the subordinated debt rating follows the confirmation of the bank's BFSR (equivalent to a BCA of ba1). The subordinated debt rating is one notch below the BCA and the negative outlook on the ratings reflects the negative outlook on the BFSR and the sovereign bond

7 rating. The confirmation of the YapiKredi's BFSR, with the BCA maintained at ba1, reflects its established franchise, stable core deposit funding profile with moderate reliance on market funding and its moderate asset quality that benefits from a low level of re-structured loans and those under close monitoring. The negative outlook on the BFSR reflects Moody's view of YapiKredi's weaker capital position amongst its rated domestic peers and its lower capital quality and high credit card exposure. Furthermore, the sizeable credit card portfolio elevates the pressures on bank's profitability against the background of consumer protection initiatives. PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY The principal methodology used in these ratings was Global Banks published in May Please see the Credit Policy page on for a copy of this methodology. Moody's National Scale Credit Ratings (NSRs) are intended as relative measures of creditworthiness among debt issues and issuers within a country, enabling market participants to better differentiate relative risks. NSRs differ from Moody's global scale credit ratings in that they are not globally comparable with the full universe of Moody's rated entities, but only with NSRs for other rated debt issues and issuers within the same country. NSRs are designated by a ".nn" country modifier signifying the relevant country, as in ".mx" for Mexico. For further information on Moody's approach to national scale credit ratings, please refer to Moody's Credit rating Methodology published in October 2012 entitled "Mapping Moody's National Scale Credit Ratings to Global Scale Credit Ratings". REGULATORY DISCLOSURES For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity. The bank deposit rating of rated entity Turk Ekonomi Bankasi A.S. was initiated by Moody's and were not requested by these rated entities. Rated entity Turk Ekonomi Bankasi A.S. or its agent(s) participated in the rating process. This rated entity or its agent(s), if any, provided Moody's - access to the books, records and other relevant internal documents of the rated entity/ies. Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review. Please see for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating. Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating. Arif K Bekiroglu Asst Vice President - Analyst Financial Institutions Group Moody's Investors Service Ltd. One Canada Square

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