Report Summary Price drivers Impact Weightage % Peak production season at Malaysia & Indonesia. Fundamental Analysis & Review

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1 Decision enabling cash market analysis & price outlook For the week beginning Oct 4, 2012 Fundamental Summary Report Summary Price drivers Impact Weightage % Peak production season at Malaysia & Indonesia Score (1 5) Bearish 20 1 Weak CPKO export demand Marginal Bearish 20 2 Higher CNO exports in August Marginal Bullish 30 4 Global slowdown concerns Marginal Bearish 30 2 Indexed score* 2.50 *1 Bearish; 2 Marginal Bearish; 3 Consolidation; 4 Marginal Bullish; 5 Bullish Laurics and oleo chemical prices are on the verge of a placing a bottom. Subsequently a gradual recovery is expected. Fundamental Analysis & Review Laurics prices continued the downward trail in the wake of subdued demand sentiments coupled with excess supplies which kept the overall price trend on a bearish note. On one hand, declining Malaysian kernel oil exports kept CPKO prices on a subdued note, lingering demand concerns from major consuming countries viz US & EU kept CNO prices under pressure. Towards the weekend the CPKO CIF Rotterdam settled lower by $80 at USD 860/ton while CNO CIF Rotterdam closed at USD 860/Ton down by USD 90/Ton vs previous week. Following weak exports from numbers of SGS wherein tember latest figures illustrated a fall of 11% m o m for Palm kernel oil exports from Malaysia, market is expected to remain under pressure in the near term. While on one hand, bumper palm production across Malaysia and Indonesia indicates of increased palm kernel oil supplies, on the other hand,soaring inventory levels of PKO shall negate any positive momentum in the prices. Looking at the days to exports figures derived from stockpiles of PKO in Malaysia, it is observed that there has been continuous surge in its level to reach at days ending Aug 12 compared to just 73 days in Aug 11 indicating the uneasy level of stockpile build up across Malaysia. Further, with sagging demand (in the wake ongoing industrial slowdown at Eurozone, US & China) and brighter production prospects, we estimate the stockpiles for tember might tend higher by around percent towards 400+ Th tons. Moving to CNO dynamics, tracking August positive export numbers for Philippines coconut oil, tember exports are also anticipated to show brighter outlook on the back of falling prices. While US and EU together accounted for 95.9% of August CNO exports, Japan was seen as the third largest importer country with share of 4.1%. At the lateral counters, crude oil prices are expected to remain on bearish note in the wake of unstable demand outlook on global front. Concerns over Spain and a slowing Chinese economy shall signal a weak global economic outlook fuelling up negative sentiments across oil prices. Concisely, considering the overall scenario look for laurics prices to trade mixed with weak bias for coming 2 3 weeks. 1 Discuss with our expert Phone: E mail: services@transgraph.com Internet:

2 Palm Kernel oil CIF Rotterdam 1m Fwd (USD/ton) Technical Analysis & Price Outlook Last closing: USD 880 per ton as on Oct 3, 2012 The underlying weakness is intact while prices are making lower lows. Prices are likely to stretch lower ahead of forming a base for recovery. Prices are likely to trade on a sideways to negative bias towards USD 900 and lower ahead of turning positive in the coming 2 3 weeks 0 2 weeks 0 1 month 0 2 months Price Ranges IL SL IL SL IL SL Review 50% of Oct 12 buying was covered at USD 905 Remaining 50% of Oct 12 buying can be covered near USD 850 Turnaround point Gains above USD 1080 shall turn the sentiments positive Palm Kernel oil CIF Rotterdam 1m Fwd (USD/ton) FY Aug 12 Procurement efficiency savings % (Bettering the market average) Good to Excellent strike rate % Chartist view on Palm Kernel oil CIF Rotterdam 1m Fwd (USD/ton) Prices are finding follow through selling pressure after breaking below USD 900 and are staying well below the 10 week EMA exhibiting a sideways to negative bias. In the weekly technical setup the underlying momentum in the Stochastic (14/3/3) and 14 RSI is weak although the indicators are hovering within the deep oversold territory. Therefore further extension of weakness towards USD 850 remains open in the coming week. On the downside USD 850/830 could act as a strong support holding above which prices are likely to prolong the existing consolidation ahead of a recovery. On the higher side USD could act as a resistance zone, a break above the same shall call for a gradual recovery towards USD 1000 and higher in the months ahead. Until then prices are likely to prolong the existing consolidation. Concisely, prices are likely to trade on a sideways to negative bias towards USD 900 and lower ahead of turning positive in the coming 2 3 weeks. Coconut oil CIF Rotterdam 1 M Fwd (USD/ton) Last closing: USD 895 per ton as on October 3, 2012 Prices are like to stay sideways to weak in the coming weeks as the underlying weak momentum is in force. However on such weakness prices could find good support to attempt a rebound in the months ahead. Prices are likely to trade on a sideways to weak note towards USD ahead of turning higher in the coming 2 3 weeks Price Ranges 0 2 weeks 0 1 month 0 2 months 2

3 IL SL IL SL IL SL Review 50% of Oct 12 buying can be considered near USD 920 Remaining 50% of Oct 12 buying can be considered near USD 850 Turnaround point Gains above USD 1050 shall turn the sentiments positive Coconut oil CIF Rotterdam 1m Fwd (USD/ton) FY Aug 12 Procurement efficiency savings % (Bettering the market average) 1.99 Good to Excellent strike rate % 100 Chartist view on Coconut oil CIF Rotterdam 1 M Fwd (USD/ton) Prices have broken below the previous consolidation selling pressure for last couple of weeks exhibiting a negative bias upon staying well below the 12 Week EMA. In the technical setup the Stochastic (14/3/3) and 14 RSI are keeping the underlying weak momentum intact although hovering within the deep oversold territory. Therefore further weakness towards USD 850 to 830 remains open in the coming weeks. On the downside the said region of USD could eventually act as a strong support for prices as the above mentioned oscillators are forming a potential positive divergence. Therefore subsequent rebound towards USD 1000 shall remain open in the months ahead. at USD 950 and are scaling down finding follow through Concisely, prices are likely to trade on a sideways to weak note towards USD ahead of turning higher in the coming 2 3 weeks. RBD Palm Stearin FOB spot market (USD/ton) Last closing: USD 745 per ton as on Oct 3, 2012 The short term momentum is weak hence possibility of further weakness remains likely ahead of prices could eventually poise a recovery. Prices are likely to trade on a sideways to negative bias towards USD 720/700 ahead of a recovery in the coming 2 weeks 0 2 weeks 0 1 month 0 2 months Price Ranges IL SL IL SL IL SL Review 50% of Oct 12 buyin g was covered a t USD 735 Remaining 50% of Oct 12 buying can be considered near USD 750 Turnaround point Gains above USD 850 shall turn the sentiments positive RBD Stearin FOB Malaysia(USD/ton) FY Aug 12 Procurement efficiency savings % (Bettering the market average) 3.14% 3

4 Good to Excellent strike rate % 100% Chartist view on RBD Palm Stearin FOB spot market (USD/ton) Prices have fallen very sharply below USD 800 finding heavy selling pressure and are hovering well below the 8 Week EMA exhibiting a sideways to negative bias. On the weekly technical setup the MACD (12/26/9) and 14 RSI are weakening below the equilibrium. Therefore possibility of further extension of weakness towards USD 720/700 remains open in the coming week. However note that market has turned deep oversold while the above mentioned oscillators are indicating the same. Hence on the downside the said region of USD could eventually act as a good support holding above the same prices could attempt a recovery. On the upside the resistance is identified at USD 800, gains above which shall call for a recovery in place. Concisely, prices are likely to trade on a sideways to negative bias towards USD 720/700 ahead of a recovery in the coming 2 weeks. PFAD FOB spot market (USD/ton) Last closing: USD 680 per ton as on Oct 3, 2012 Prices are expected to trade sideways with bearish bias. Subsequent recovery signals are awaited Prices are likely to trade on a sideways to negative bias towards USD 650 and attempt a recovery in the coming 2 weeks 0 2 weeks 0 1 month 0 2 months Price Ranges IL SL IL SL IL SL Review 50% of Oct 12 buyin g was covered a t USD 675 Remaining 50% of Oct 12 buying can be considered near USD 650 Turnaround point Gains above USD 850 shall turn the sentiments positive PFAD FOB Malaysia (USD/ton) FY Aug 12 Procurement efficiency savings % (Bettering the market average) 1.89% Good to Excellent strike rate % 100% Chartist view on PFAD FOB spot market (USD/ton) Prices are falling heavily finding follow through selling and are staying well below the 13 Week EMA exhibiting a negative bias. On weekly technical setup the momentum oscillators are weakening while the underlying weak momentum is still in force. Therefore further weakness towards USD 650 remains open in the coming weeks. 4

5 On the downside USD 650 could act as a good support to hold prices firm whereby prices could attract renewed buying for a gradual recovery. On the higher side USD 720 could offer stiff resistance to keep prices subdued. Concisely, prices are likely to trade on a sideways to negative bias towards USD 650 and attempt a recovery in the coming 2 weeks Soy CPO price spread (CNF India, $/ton) Jun 10-Aug NYMEX Crude ($/barrel) Aug 31-Aug Price spread CPKO CNO on CIF Rotterdam basis ($/t) Jun 4-Aug Weekly Dashboard Soy RBD Olein price spread (At origin, $/ton) Jun 20-Jul 24-Aug INR vs. USD Oct Landed Cost Price Spreads CNO CPKO (INR/10 Kg) May 20-Jul 8- Palm oil refining margins (FOB Malaysia basis, $/ton) Gross margin after product realization May 8-Jul 17-Aug 26- Rotterdam Facts & Figures Digest Oct 02, 25, Change Change % Crude palm kernel oil 1m fwd CIF* Coconut oil 1m fwd CIF*

6 Crude palm oil CIF Malaysia Palm fatty acid distillate FOB Palm Stearin FOB Basis South Malaysia Crude Palm kernel oil Kochi, India Coconut oil spot 5900^ All units in USD/ton; ^as on 29 th 12 6

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