Climate Change and Security in Turkey: Challenges and Opportunities. Turkish-German Expert Roundtable Agenda

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1 Climate Change and Security in Turkey: Challenges and Opportunities Turkish-German Expert Roundtable Agenda Co-organized by Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences, Bilkent University Istanbul Policy Center - Sabancı University Stiftung Mercator Initiative IOM Turkey Office This event is kindly supported by The Embassy of the Federal Republic of Germany, Ankara May 2015 Bilkent University, Ankara Climate change is frequently made out to be amongst the key security challenges of the 21 st century. Not only popular media but also official policy documents and academic accounts frequently raise the alarm over the conflict potential in a future shaped by increasing variability and exacerbating change in climatic patterns. Nature that sustains us, as the socio-ecological metabolism of our modern societies, has now increasingly come to be seen as a threat to humanity s very survival. The increase in mean temperatures, climate variability, extreme weather events and rising sea levels are but few of the many future scenarios anticipated to increase social vulnerability and trigger social unrest. Not only already volatile parts of Sub- Saharan Africa and Sahel but also the Mediterranean and the Middle East are said to be amongst the regions most exposed to climate risks, whereby geopolitical, social and climate instability coincide. Although these accounts call for caution on a vicious cycle of migration, conflict and underdevelopment, IPCC s 5 th Assessment Report (AR5, 2014) is poised in its wording. IPCC only suggest with medium confidence that climate change can indirectly increase risks of violent conflicts by amplifying well-documented drivers of these conflicts such as poverty and economic shocks.

2 The emergence of these new risks generated heightened social and political attention on security. Conceptually and ontologically speaking, security has experienced dramatic shifts as a result. Policy makers, NGOs and global think tanks started using the jargon of security for large parts of the social life altogether. Cyber security, health security, food security, energy security, water security and finally, environmental (or even: climate) security are all framed as key challenges to humankind in the post-cold war international order. Real or perceived, these challenges are mostly met by sovereign states, making them and the organizations they fund, key agents in mediating the social effects of climate change, including migration and conflict. The Republic of Turkey, an economic powerhouse and a key international actor with high developmental and geopolitical ambitions, is located in a region replete with environmental and security challenges. Yet, the research on the security implications of environmental and climatic transformations remains underdeveloped. With Turkey increasingly taking leadership on the world stage, having emerged as one of the world s largest international aid donor countries, chairing the G20 and aiming at a non-permanent seat in the UN Security Council, both the impact of climatic changes and responses to future threats as well as its domestic and international security challenges constitute important issues for the society and government alike in Turkey. The 1,5-day expert roundtable seeks to bring together policy makers, experts from key governmental institutions and international organisation as well as academics working in the fields of climate change, environment, conflict, migration and security from two countries, Germany and Turkey. It is meant to facilitate a dialogue between these stakeholders and to deliver a forum to investigate discourses on the securitization of climate and the environment in the Turkish and related geographical contexts. With Turkey s position in global climate politics still being in construction, a conversation about the social implications of climate change in and around Turkey also constitutes a timely intervention prior to the Paris COP 21 climate change summit in Paris. This event follows Chatham House Rule, meaning participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed. To enable an open and productive dialogue, the event will not be recorded by any means. The event is in English and upon invitation only. Roundtable conveners: Dr. Ethemcan Turhan (Mercator-IPC fellow, Istanbul Policy Center, Sabancı University) Asst. Prof. Dr. Clemens Hoffmann (Bilkent University, Department of International Relations) International Organisation for Migration (IOM, Turkey Country Office)

3 Climate Change and Security in Turkey: Challenges and Opportunities Turkish-German Expert Roundtable Agenda May 2015 Ankara, Turkey 1 st Day: 28 th May 2015, Thursday Venue: Bilkent University, FEASS, A Building, Room A :30-14:00 Registration 14:00-14:30 Introduction Asst. Prof. Dr. Ali Bilgiç (Associate Dean FEASS, Bilkent University) Özcan Bulgen (German Embassy Ankara) Dr. Ethemcan Turhan (Istanbul Policy Center, Sabancı University) Meera Sethi (Chief of Mission, IOM Turkey) 14:30-16:00 Framing Speeches Prof. Dr. Jurgen Scheffran (Hamburg University) Conflicts and Security Risks of Climate Change in the Mediterranean Region Prof. Dr. Ayşegül Kibaroğlu (MEF University) Politics of water resources under the impacts of climate change: Turkey and beyond 16:00-16:30 Coffee break 16:30-18:00 Climate Change and Security: Global Issues, Local Repercussions Moderator: Asst. Prof. Dr. Clemens Hoffmann (Bilkent University) The first session aims at building a structured debate on global climate changesecurity debate. This includes but is not limited to relevant processes and policyrelevant discussions at United Nations and other relevant international bodies. 1. What is the state of the art on global discussion on climate change-security linkages? 2. Is the climate change-security nexus a tool for securitization or an issue that can raise awareness on human (in)security? 3. Who/which institutions are the agents of change/agenda-setting actors? 18:00-18:30 Key messages from the first day Moderator: Asst. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Mazlum (Marmara University) 19:00-19:30 Transportation to Roundtable Dinner 19:30-22:00 Workshop Dinner: Big Chefs Restaurant, İran Caddesi No: 35 Kavaklıdere

4 2 nd Day: 29 May 2015, Friday Venue: Bilkent University, FEASS, A Building, Room A 130 9:15-9:30 Introduction to the 2 nd day While the first day of the workshop is devoted to identifying broader issues and challenges, this second day is dedicated to identifying key challenges in food, water and energy dimensions as well as the nexus between global environmental change and mobility. 9:30-10:45 Food, climate change and security: What is at stake? Moderator: Asst. Prof. Dr. Zeynep Kadirbeyoğlu (Boğaziçi University) This focus of this session on food includes but is not limited to rural depopulation, risks to agricultural production, long-term agricultural land acquisition, farming systems, agricultural policy etc. 1. What are the linkages between climate change and food systems (production, consumption, distribution etc.) in Turkey? 2. What are the uses of different framings of food such as right to food, food sovereignty and food security? 3. What are the security implications (if any) of climate change on agriculture in Turkey and its neighbourhood? What are the connections (if any) with uneven development? 10:45-11:15 Coffee break 11:15-12:30 Migration and climate change: A security issue? Moderator: Daria Mokhnacheva (IOM) 1. What are the potential effects of climate change on domestic and cross-border population movements? 2. What are the linkages between climate change, migration and (in)security, e.g. with regard to adaptation? 3. How could one approach the environmental change and human mobility nexus in Turkey? What type of analytical framework could inform policy? 12:30-14:00 Lunch Marmara Restaurant Central Campus: Please bring your lunch tickets 14:00-15:15 Energy, climate change mitigation and security: Avoiding maladaptation Moderator: Dr. Ethemcan Turhan (IPC, Sabancı University) 1. How is sustainable energy provision framed in Turkey vis-à-vis climate change? 2. How do different visions such as energy security and energy justice/community power play in the policy field? 3. Does mitigation and adaptation policies pose a threat to energy systems or vice versa? 15:15-15:45 Coffee break

5 15:45-17:00 Water resources in a changing climate Moderator: Dr. Tugba Evrim Maden (Hydropolitics Researcher) 1. What are the connections (if any) between water resources, social unrest and climate change in and around Turkey? 2. How will domestic and transboundary water bodies in Turkey be affected by climate change? Do these changes entail socio-economic consequences? If so, what are these consequences? 3. How do the Turkish state and other relevant stakeholders respond to water challenges to be brought about by climate change? 17:00-17:30 Wrap-up session Discussant: Prof. Hans Günter Brauch Dr. (Adj. Prof.), Free University of Berlin, Otto-Suhr Institute for Political Science (Ret.), Peace Research and European Security Studies (AFES-PRESS), Chairman. Scientific Editor of Hexagon Series on Human, Environmental Security and Peace (HESP), Springer.