The Global Nuclear Renaissance and the Possible Role of Nuclear in Asia

Transcription

1 Alessandro Clerici, Stefan Hatt, Wolfram Opitz Power-Gen Asia, Bangkok, October The Global Nuclear Renaissance and the Possible Role of Nuclear in Asia

2 Contents 1. The general situation worldwide 2. Nuclear on 10/3/2011 the day before Fukushima 3. Nuclear after Fukushima 4. Final considerations 5. Examples of ABB s offering for nuclear plants October 10, 2012 Slide 2

3 1. The general situation worldwide Big differences in per capita Power Consumption MWh / year N. America E&SE Asia World population 7 billion Australasia Europe CSI Latin America Middle East Africa South Asia World OECD Europe MWh per capita Billion people October 10, 2012 Slide 3

4 The general situation worldwide Global Trends 180 Figures from IEA Electricity consumption Primary energy consumption CO 2 emissions 120 World population October 10, 2012 Slide 4 Driving factors will be : increase in population and urban growth Increase in living standards especially in LDC s CO 2 emissions and penalties for them

5 The general situation worldwide Trend of global CO 2 emissions Comparison of increase in global emissions (Mt) Growth of emissions October 10, 2012 Slide 5

6 2. The world situation on 10 March operational reactors in 30 countries yielding ~375 GW. 65 reactors under construction in 16 countries (27 in China), yielding ~ 63 GW; apart from the Japanese ABWR reactors, all the others are of the PWR type. Implementation of the life cycle extension to more than years for old reactors operating in many countries (economical kwh, no CO 2 emissions). The Chernobyl effect was no longer prominent in public opinion, which focused instead on the final disposal of nuclear waste, on the cost of nuclear and on the not in my back yard effect. A nuclear renaissance was under way explained by: 1. volatile and rising fossil fuel prices; 2. environmental concern over CO 2 emissions and corresponding penalties; 3. security of supplies. with 158 reactors planned and 323 proposed in 47 countries (source WNA). October 10, 2012 Slide 6

7 Nuclear pre-fukushima Reactors in operation or under construction as of March 10, 2011 In operation (1) Under construction (2) No. GW No. GW Europe , ,941 North America , ,165 Asia , ,819 South America 4 2, ,937 Africa 2 1, TOTAL Elaboration data from IAEA , ,862 (1) For the main part of reactors in operation, extension of life for around 20 years. (2) Countries with reactors under construction are: China n 27 reactors Russia 11 India 5 South Korea 5 n 2 reactors for Japan, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Taiwan, Ukraine and n 1 reactor for Argentina, Brazil, Finland, France, Iran, Pakistan, USA. The 2 countries US and France generate some 45% of total nuclear energy. The first 10 countries generate more than 85% of total nuclear energy GW (7.5% of global 4,900 GW) TWh (13% of global 20,000 TWh) October 10, 2012 Slide 7

8 Nuclear energy worldwide October 10, 2012 Slide 8

9 3. Nuclear power after Fukushima The World Energy Council has set up a Nuclear Task Force to assess the impact of the Fukushima accident and has conducted a survey of 30 member countries. The IAEA has presented a plan for implementation taking account of the lessons learned from Fukushima: new safety standards to be universally applicable to power plants; systematic and regular review of the safety situation of the plants; strengthening local preparations to deal with emergencies with the creation of a multinational intervention force, should the need arise; the role and independence of the local safety agencies; transparent circulation of information. October 10, 2012 Slide 9

10 Nuclear power after Fukushima There has been an increase in the "not in my backyard mentality; the general public does not want structures/ plants in its immediate vicinity. And this will be a serious problem for locations in zones which are vulnerable to natural disasters. There will be a possible increase in the cost of nuclear plants because of more stringent safety requirements/ longer permit issue times/ higher insurance costs (risks). In Japan, Germany, Italy and Switzerland, the Fukushima accident was followed by strongest public reactions with consequential policy changes. October 10, 2012 Slide 10

11 Nuclear power after Fukushima People - who favour nuclear energy - have stressed and will continue to do so that the global community can profit from Fukushima in line with the history of nuclear power. We have seen a constant improvement and technological development in the light of acquired experience, including suppliers and power plant operators. This process has underpinned the work of the suppliers of 3rd generation reactors currently under construction in several countries. These new reactors typically have a life cycle of 60 years, availability in excess of 90%, a fuel cycle of months, a 10-7 probability of radiation leakage in the absence of any external effect; particularly low exposure to radiation for the operators; ability to resist the impact of large aircraft crashes. October 10, 2012 Slide 11

12 Nuclear power after Fukushima Reactors in operation or under construction as of September 10, 2012 In operation (1) Under construction (2) No. GW No. GW Europe North America Asia South America Africa TOTAL Elaboration data from IAEA (1) For the main part of reactors in operation, extension of life for around 20 years. (2) Countries w ith reactors under construction are: China n 26 reactors Russia 11 India 7 South Korea 4 n 2 reactors for Japan, Slovakia, Pakistan, Taiw an, Ukraine and n 1 reactor for Argentina, Brazil, Finland, France, USA, UAE. October 10, 2012 Slide 12

13 Nuclear power after Fukushima Germany The most significant impact was in Germany where the current Government had initially decided in 2010 to extend the life span of nuclear power. But, in the days immediately following the Fukushima accident, Chancellor Merkel ordered the shutdown of the 7 oldest nuclear power plants (another plant was already out of service for technical reasons). The German government went on to ratify the total closure of these 8 plants and drew up an exit program for the 9 remaining plants by October 10, 2012 Slide 13

14 Nuclear power after Fukushima Japan Following the accident affecting 4 units of Fukushima Daiichi power plant, all of the 50 remaining reactors were shut-down over months. After planned inspections, ordered shut-downs, the last reactor of the total of 54 units was disconnected from the grid in May Governmental pressure had been applied to the Governor of Fukui and the Mayor of Ooi, then the 2 x 1180 MW reactors in Ooi were brought back into operational service in July In summer 2012, Prime Minister Noda set up a committee to recommend a long-term energy strategy for 2030 based on 3 alternatives: 0% nuclear energy, 20% or 25% with significant development of renewables. October 10, 2012 Slide 14 The NRA (new Nuclear Regulation Authority since Sept. 18, 2012) is responsible for authorizing the restart but local governments must give their final approval.

15 Nuclear power after Fukushima Japan In the nuclear industry, companies like Hitachi, Mitsubishi and Toshiba are important at the international level and/or have acquired major foreign nuclear companies. Japan is the world leader in the heavy manufacturing sector and for nuclear components. This activity is particularly sustained outside Japan. Exports of goods and services in the nuclear sector remain a priority in Japan; 4 international cooperation agreements have been signed with Jordan, Vietnam, South Korea and Russia. October 10, 2012 Slide 15

16 Nuclear power after Fukushima China Most ambitious nuclear plans (70-80 GW operational in 2020 and GW in 2030), with 26 reactors under construction in Sept Following the Fukushima accident, in March 2011, the Council of State announced the suspension of permits for new plants and safety checks on all nuclear projects (completed in October 2011). Of the 34 previously approved reactors, 4 units on which construction began in 2011 have been suspended; construction began on 3 units in March 2011 and 2 reactors were connected to the grid in The new national nuclear safety plan is due to be published and the large-scale construction of nuclear plants will resume. In December 2011, the NEA (National Energy Administration) stated: China will make nuclear energy the foundation of its power generation system in the next 10 or 20 years, adding up to 300 GW of nuclear capacity during that period". October 10, 2012 Slide 16

17 Nuclear power after Fukushima South Korea In 2011, the 21 operational reactors (~19 GW) supplied 31% of the country s electricity. Half way through 2011 the government repeated its intention of generating 27 GW nuclear power by 2020 and 43 GW by 2030 representing 59% of national electric power. In November 2011, the government again repeated it commitment to build 6 new reactors by The programs for nuclear power plant exports are significant after an order for 4 reactors from the United Arab Emirates was won in December South Korea plans to become the third largest exporter of nuclear power plants by 2030 covering more than 20% of the world market. October 10, 2012 Slide 17

18 Nuclear power after Fukushima India & Bangladesh October 10, 2012 Slide 18 India: Starting out from the 4400 MW currently in service, India has a highly ambitious program: to double the capacity in service by 2015 and achieve an operational capacity of more than 60 GW in The program is concentrated in 5 nuclear power parks each representing 8,000-10,000 MW to supply 45 GW in NPCIL is confident that construction of 4 new reactors in all will begin in 2012 with 4 sites designated for imported power plants. There have been adverse popular reactions to a power plant under construction with Russian reactors and to one proposed by the French. Bangladesh: In November 2011 an inter-governmental agreement was signed with Russia for the supply of 2 reactors of 1000 MW each to be built in Rooppur including the supply of fuel and return of the spent fuel to Russia. Construction of the first unit is due to begin in 2012 with completion scheduled for 2018.

19 Nuclear power after Fukushima Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia Thailand: Following the Fukushima accident, plans for the first reactor were put on standby. Vietnam: In Oct an agreement was signed with Russia for 2 x 1000 MW reactors to be built as turnkey projects for commissioning in At the same time, an intergovernmental agreement was signed with Japan for the construction of a second nuclear plant with 2 reactors due to enter into service in At the end of 2011, the Presidents of Vietnam and South Korea signed a cooperation agreement including the development of a nuclear plant. Indonesia: Several agreements were signed with Russia, S. Korea, Australia and the USA. October 10, 2012 Slide 19

20 4. Final consideration The long-term impact of the Japanese incident on the nuclear renaissance which had been anticipated before 11/3/2011, is still hard to predict. At all events, the emotional reactions are resulting in the generation of more electricity from fossil fuels, greater insecurity of supply, higher electricity costs and higher CO2 emissions. As an extreme and unrealistic case, the closure of all the existing reactors which generate 2,600 TWh would signify additional consumption of 700 MTEP/ year of fossil fuels (approx. 25% of the current gas consumption) and additional emissions of 2 billion t CO2/ per year. The dilemma which arises after Fukushima is that of weighing up three risks: the risk of a nuclear accident, the risk of environmental collapse because of CO2 emissions, the risk of progressive under-development of less developed countries. October 10, 2012 Slide 20

21 Final consideration The big new markets for nuclear are in Asia and to some extent in Russia and Central and Eastern Europe, while in Western Europe and the United States there is a substantial market for revamping/ life cycle extension and power upgrading. The time lag (except in China, S. Korea and Russia) between initial studies/ proposals and the effective start of work on new reactors or on upgrades is extremely long and linked to the definition of a strategic/ financing partner. October 10, 2012 Slide 21

22 Final consideration No source of energy should be idolized or demonized a priori. Nuclear and renewables are not in opposition: nuclear (like gas and coal) supplies the essential basic programmable energy while the new renewables are intermittent (they supply energy when there is wind or sun), so leaving a need for adequate reserves from other sources and creating problems and costs for reliable operation of the electricity system. This will be the case until safe and economical storage of electrical energy becomes possible. In Japan and Europe, it will be impossible to attain the longterm CO2 emission targets and to achieve security of supply solely with renewables, taking account at the same time of the need to replace old basic power plants. Energy efficiency first and foremost and the nuclear option cannot be disregarded when drawing up energy strategies. October 10, 2012 Slide 22

23 5. Examples of ABB s offering for nuclear plants Service for Nuclear Power Plants Consulting of NPP to propose solutions for life time extension within the changing nuclear regulations Repowering of IPB s at Almaraz, Spain Urgent services after GCB failure at Vandellos, Spain Yearly maintenance contracts covering all electrical services at several sites Maintenance, Upgrading or life time extension of Control Systems at several sites Upgrade and replacement of various electrical systems, including step-up, auxiliary and excitation transformers, relay protection, Requalification of GCB, IPB and supporting systems to new design basis 400kV AIS substation Replacement and enhancement of Turbine Controls and Turbine Governors at numerous sites October 10, 2012 Slide 23

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