Promoting pro-poor growth in Rwandan agriculture: What are the policy options?

Transcription

1 Promoting pro-poor growth in Rwandan agriculture: What are the policy options? Michael Morris, Liz Drake, Kene Ezemenari, Xinshen Diao Analytical Approaches to Inclusive Growth PREM Learning Week 22 April 2008

2 Study objectives Three main goals 1. Identify potential sources of rapid and sustainable pro-poor growth within the agricultural sector 2. Identify key policy and institutional reforms and supporting investments needed to unlock growth 3. Prioritize actions needed to stimulate increased agricultural growth

3 Agriculture in Rwanda Poverty profile Per capita GDP = $245 poverty rate = 67% Agricultural sector generates: 35 to 40% of GDP 90% of employment (especially women) 70% of export revenues 90% of national food needs

4 Rwanda: An agrarian economy Year on year change (%) Agricultural GDP Total GDP Agricultural GDP drives overall GDP

5 Agricultural sector overview Bananas 22% Pulses 21% Oilseeds 3% Fruits & Vegetables 5% Rainfed Smallholder Subsistence Export crops 3% Traditional technology Low input use Roots & Tubers 26% Cereals 21% Limited off-farm income Food insecurity Share of cropped area (2005)

6 Growth drivers: Demand Domestic Markets: Estimated 4-5% per year demand growth stimulated by population increases and income gains Regional Markets: Export opportunities in DRC, Burundi, Uganda. Competition likely under EAC from Tanzania and Uganda International Markets: Coffee and tea; horticulture (fruits and vegetables, flowers). Niche markets for non-traditional exports.

7 Changing demand Income growth will lead to: Relatively more consumption Rice and wheat Potatoes and bananas Fruits and vegetables Milk and meat Relatively less consumption Sweet potato Cassava Sorghum and maize

8 Growth drivers: Supply Potential sources of growth Area increases Limited prospects for land expansion, but current cropped area rate of growth of 1% per year can continue (intensification through multiple cropping). Yield increases Good prospects for yield increases, because current yields are very low (large yield gaps). Improved technologies available. Value addition Good potential because currently limited processing (especially for domestic market).

9 Distance from external markets Negatives High input costs + Low export costs = Profit squeeze Positives Competitiveness issues High cost of imports = Natural protection Bottom line Successful exporting most likely for commodities with high value-to-weight ratios (specialty products, not bulk staples)

10 Modeling agriculture-led growth Rwanda Economy-wide Multi-market (REMM) model used to explore alternative scenarios Impacts of different strategies on: Growth Incomes and poverty Food balances Foreign exchange earnings

11 REMM model Model features Agricultural sector: 30 commodities Non-agricultural sectors: 2 aggregated sectors (manufacturing, services) Data sources: EICV 1, FAOSTAT, GoR Levels of analysis: Province, household type (land holding size, income, gender) REMM includes more than 3,000 equations

12 Modeling agriculture-led growth Initial conditions important (EICV) Supply side Assets (land) Production activities Productivity trends Demand side Income levels Income sources Consumption patterns

13 REMM initial conditions Average income per capita (US$) y = x x R2 = Household landholding size (ha)

14 REMM initial conditions 2.50 Land holding size (ha) Group 1 Group 2 Group Cumulative percentage of rural households

15 REMM initial conditions Annual expenditures, by income quintile, 2003 ($ 000) Maize Rice Wheat Manioc Potato Banana Livestock Total Lowest Middle Highest Total ,234.2 Urban Lowest Middle Highest Total

16 REMM Simulations What scenarios? Period of analysis: Base Run Scenario Business as usual using trend growth rates Growth Scenarios Increased growth rates based on projections Note: Growth rates adjust endogenously

17 Base Run Scenario Annual percentage GDP growth (%) GDP Ag GDP NonAg GDP GDP pc Ag GDP pc NonAg GDP pc Projected annual GDP growth (%)

18 Base Run Scenario Annual percentage GDP growth (%) with cash crop without cash crop maleheaded femaleheaded Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Projected annual GDP growth by household type (%)

19 Base Run Scenario Change in poverty rate within each group (%) National with cash crop without cash crop maleheaded femaleheaded Group 1 Group 2 Group 3-8 Projected poverty reduction by household type, (%)

20 Base Run Scenario Food security demand growth > supply growth food imports increase Trade balance food imports > commodity exports trade deficit increases

21 Base Run Scenario Key insights Agriculture key growth driver, BUT MDG and NEPAD goals not achieved Modest reduction in poverty rate Absolute numbers of poor increase Conclusion: Business as usual is not an option

22 Growth Scenarios Assumptions Area expansion: Constrained to 1% per year Productivity growth: Government targets (with some modifications) Simulations Individual commodities Groups of commodities Non-Ag sectors (linkages to Ag Sector) All Ag and Non-Ag combined

23 Base Run vs. Growth Scenario Annual percentage GDP growth (%) GDP Ag GDP NonAg GDP Base run scenario Growth scenario GDP pc AgGDP pc NonAg GDP pc Projected annual GDP growth (%)

24 Growth Scenario reality check Ag GDP is projected to grow at 6.2% Is this realistic? Realistic through 2015 because: 1. Recovery effect will continue 2. Yield gaps currently very large 3. Assumed 2015 yields are modest 4. Marshlands development will boost productivity 5. Speciality coffee and tea will boost exports value

25 Base Run vs. Growth Scenario 7 Annual percentage GDP growth (%) with cash crop without cash crop maleheaded femaleheaded Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Increased GDP growth for all household types (%)

26 National poverty rate under different scenarios (%) REMM Simulations - Summary Base Run Roots and tubers Pulses Cereals Export crops Cash crops Livestock Staples incl. livestock All agriculture Ag and Non-ag Poverty reduction greatest under staples-led growth (%)

27 Growth Scenario Food security Impacts of growth on trade balance Base Run Trade growth (% per year) Growth Scenario Agricultural exports Agricultural imports Net trade surplus (US$ m)

28 Simulations: Main findings Agriculture: a leading engine of growth Main growth drivers: food staples and livestock (c. 75%) Export crops: significant contributor to growth (c. 25%) Agriculture-led growth: significant income gains for almost all households Staples-led growth: more pro-poor National food self-sufficiency: decrease Agriculture-led growth: will help reduce trade deficit Significant price effects: some sub-sectors

29 Summary and conclusions Agricultural growth already significant, but current rate must be increased Main constraints to agricultural growth: Low farm level productivity Small, fragmented farms Availability, affordability, quality of inputs Limited market participation by producers Lack of access to financial services Weak human capital base

30 Growth Strategy Pillars 1. Stimulating productivity growth in food staples 2. Scaling up sustainable development of land and water resources (irrigation, terracing) 3. Strengthening research and extension systems 4. Building capacity in producer organizations 5. Promoting export growth and diversification 6. Improving performance of agricultural markets 7. Improving access to rural financial services

31 Implementation issues Who does what? At what level? Cost? Public sector roles Research and extension Infrastructure (transport, energy, irrigation) Capacity building (rural education, extension) Private sector roles Rehabilitation and management of coffee washing stations Rehabilitation and management of tea factories Agro-processing Public-Private Partnerships Inputs distribution (seed, fertilizer, animal vaccines) financial services Value chain development (e.g., horticultural export markets)

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