IBERIA. Price Target / Recommendation Changes Jerónimo Martins News BES, EDP & REN, Jerónimo Martins

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1 EQUITY RESEARCH IBERIA 27 September 2013 TOP STORIES Sonae Capital went up 8% over the week, being one of the best performers in the Portuguese market. There were no news, however the summer was quite strong regarding Tourism revenues and overnight stays from foreign people (page 4). WEEKLY António Seladas, CFA OUT THIS WEEK Price Target / Recommendation Changes Jerónimo Martins News BES, EDP & REN, Jerónimo Martins WEEK AHEAD Monday Retail sales in Portugal (August) Tuesday New car sales in Portugal and Spain (September); Zon Optimus Extraordinary General Meeting PORTFOLIOS This week, Mib Aggressive Portfolio went up 1.97%, outperforming the PSI20 by 2.71pp. Excluding BPI, all stocks contributed for this outperformance (page 8). This week, Mib Liquidity Portfolio went up 0.04%, outperforming the PSI20 by 0.78pp. Excluding BPI and Galp Energia, all stocks contributed for this outperformance (page 9). Stock Market Last 1W YTD 2012 Daily Vol. ( mn) 1W 1M 6M 2012 PSI 20 6, % 6.11% 2.93% PSI IBEX 35 9, % 12.99% -4.66% IBEX 35 2,328 2,078 2,348 2,578 Euro Stoxx 50 2, % 10.75% 13.79% Euro Stoxx 50 8,456 7,666 7,472 7,867 Forex Rates Last 1W YTD 2012 Interest Rates Last 1W Chg YE12 EUR/USD % 2.60% 1.97% Euribor 6m 0.34% 0.34% 0bp 0.32% EUR/GBP % 2.93% -2.30% 10Y Bond PT 6.84% 7.14% -31bp 7.01% EUR/BRL % 13.05% % 10Y Bond SP 4.36% 4.30% 6bp 5.26% Best & Worse Performers -1 Week (%) Best & Worse Performers - YTD (%) antonio.seladas@millenniumbcp.pt Sonae Capital 8.0 Impresa Cofina 7.1 Sonae Capital 92.9 Novabase 6.3 Mota-Engil 86.2 Impresa 5.9 Zon Optimus 47.1 Av. José Malhoa, Lote Lisboa Sonae Industria Altri Indra Sonaecom BPI EDP Renováveis Tel / Fax: / 09 BES -2.3 BES -9.6 Sonaecom -2.4 Portugal Telecom BCP -3.1 Cofina All prices are those of the end of the trading session unless otherwise indicated. For important Disclosure and Disclaimer go to the second last page. Page 1 of 12

2 CHANGES New Previous Rating Target Rating Target Motive Jerónimo Martins Neutral Buy Price Performance EARNINGS Company 3Q2013 Investor Day Galp Energia * BM Portucel AM BPI AM Iberdrola BM BES AM Galp Energia BM Impresa AM Zon Multimedia BM Jerónimo Martins BM Semapa AM BCP AM REN AM Novabase AM Martifer AM Sonae Sierra AM Telefónica BM Glintt Sonae AM Sonae Indústria AM Portugal Telecom BM Ibersol AM Sonae Capital AM Mota-Engil AM Cimpor AM Reditus EDP Renováveis BM Media Capital Sonaecom Indra EDP Altri Cofina Soares da Costa ESFG SAG AM - After market; BM - Before market; - Not available; (e) Expected; *Trading Statement Page 2 of 12

3 DIVIDENDS Company Gross Payment Ex-Div Last Year AGM Obs DPS Date Date Pay Date Gross DPS Corticeira amorim Apr Apr Apr-13 Approved Media Capital Apr-13 May-13 - Approved 19-Apr Cofina Apr-13 8-May-13 3-May-13 Approved 11-May J. Martins Apr-13 8-May-13 3-May-13 Approved 30-Apr F Ramada Apr-13 9-May-13 6-May-13 Approved 25-May Galp Energia** Apr May May-13 Approved 24-May Portugal Telecom Apr May May-13 Approved 25-May Altri Apr May May-13 Approved 25-May Sonaecom Apr May May-13 Approved 24-May EDP May May May-13 Approved 16-May EDP Renováveis Apr May May-13 Approved Zon Multimedia Apr May May-13 Approved 25-May Mota-Engil Apr May May-13 Approved 17-May REN Apr May May-13 Approved 20-Apr Sonae Apr May May-13 Approved 30-May Novabase May-13 3-Jun May-13 Approved 4-Jun Ibersol May-13 5-Jun May-13 Approved 11-May Portucel May-13 6-Jun-13 3-Jun-13 Approved 20-Apr Semapa May Jun Jun-13 Approved 11-Jun Teixeira Duarte May Jun Jun-13 Approved Cimpor May Jun Jun-13 Approved 3-Aug Iberdrola* Mar-12 3-Jul-13 3-Jul-13 Approved 23-Jul Indra Jun-13 9-Jul-13 9-Jul-13 Approved 4-Jul Iberdrola* Jul Jul-13 Approved 0-Jan Galp Energia** Sep Sep-13 Approved 18-Sep Novabase**** Sep Oct-13 7-Oct-13 Approved Telefónica** May-13 Nov-13 - Approved BCP *** - 20-May BES Mar Approved BPI *** - 24-Apr Banif ESFG Apr Approved Telefónica** May Approved 18-May Impresa Apr Approved Glintt May Approved Brisa Mar Approved Inapa Apr Approved - - Sonae Industria Apr Approved Sonae Capital Mar Approved Soares da Costa - 30-May Martifer Apr Approved SAG May Approved Reditus May Approved na - Not available Estimate: Estimated by the Millennium investment banking Proposed: Announced by the company to be proposed in AGM Approved: Dividend already approved by AGM * Company pays dividends twice a year (the 1st one already paid in January) ** Company pays dividends twice a year. *** The banks that have resquested COCO's are restrained from paying dividends **** Extraordinary dividend Page 3 of 12

4 FINANCIALS BES Buy High Risk (Target YE13: 1.05) Vanda Mesquita BESI s rights issue Equity Analyst The current BESI s CEO (José Maria Ricciardi) said in an interview that BESI (BES investment bank) is negotiating a rights issue at the moment. By reading the interview, it seems that the BESI s rights issue that is being prepared should amount at least to 300mn. The rights issue should be carried out through a private placement. An IPO of BESI is not excluded, but should happen at a later stage. Regarding BES, the current BESI s CEO said that the current CT1 stands above 10% (the minimum requirement) and that since its privatization the bank has made 11 rights issue. He added that it is not impossible that more operations such as this one may happen in the future. This rights issue by being subscribed by other shareholders than the parent company would mean that minority interests will be generated. According to our calculations, if the rights issue amounts to 300mn, there would be an immediate positive impact of 50bps in terms of CT1. The impact using BIS III rules should be lower, since there are limits that need to be accomplished. In June 2013, BES CT1 BoP stood at 10.4% or 10.7% including BESA s capital increase approved at its general meeting. If the aforesaid rights issue were to happen, CT1 could rise to 11.2%. In addition, in its last results presentation, the bank also stated that it is preparing a sale of loans portfolio that could add an extra 20 bps to CT1. To sum up, we see BES management very focused on improving CT1. However, bearing the current environment in mind, a rights issue in an investment bank is for sure a difficult challenge. UTILITIES EDP REN Neutral Low Risk (Target YE13: 2.85) Buy Low Risk (Target YE13: 2.45) Vanda Mesquita S&P has placed EDP and REN s rating on credit watch negative Equity Analyst EDP and REN announced that S&P has placed their ratings on credit watch negative, keeping their longterm ratings unchanged (EDP s long term rating was kept at BB+; REN s long term rating was kept at BB+). S&P decided to place both ratings on credit watch negative, following the decision to place the Portuguese Republic s rating on credit watch negative. As a reminder, ratings on credit watch negative have a good chance of being downgraded in the coming three months. CONGLOMERATE Sonae Capital Sell High Risk (Target YE13: 0.22) António Seladas, CFA; SC one of the best performers over the week Equity Analyst Sonae Capital went up 8% over the week, being one of the best performers in the Portuguese market. There were no news, however the summer was quite strong regarding Tourism revenues and overnight stays from foreign people so and despite we already expected a positive quarter, 6.4Mn in the hotel business, plus 6%YoY and the best quarter ever, we shouldn t be surprised if we miss the figure by being too conservative. Still the apartment sales already surprised on the 1H13; 27 deeds and sales agreements vs. 13 expected for the entire year and the 3Q13 should have kept an interesting sales pace. Apparently the offering of a 6% annual return with the apartment sale if the buyer allows SC to let the apartment over a certain period, is gaining traction. Page 4 of 12

5 RETAIL Jerónimo Martins Neutral Medium Risk (Target YE13: 16.90) Polish retail sales showed positive numbers in August João Flores, Equity Analyst Overall, August Polish Retail sales numbers (and declining unemployment rate) are potentially positive news to Jerónimo Martins. Based on a possible contraction scenario: i) 0% increase in September Food retail sales (3.5% in 3Q13) ii) and a 1% Biedronka outperformance in 3Q13, Biedronka`s LfL sales numbers could reach c4.5% in 3Q13, thus we felt comfortable with our JM`s valuation. Recall we estimate Biedronka`s LfL sales will reach 5% in 2013 (5.3% in 1H13). Retail sales rose 3.4% YoY on an annual basis in August (above 2.6% YoY consensus), lower than the 4.3% YoY increase seen in July. On a monthly basis, retail sales declined 0.7% MoM (-1.5% MoM consensus), following a 3.8% MoM increase in July. There was a 5.7% YoY increase in Food retail sales (from 4.9% YoY in July). We highlight Unemployment rate declined to 13.0% in August from 13.1% in July (13.1% estimated). Recall new car sales in Poland rose 5.8% YoY in August to registrations, following a 17.7% YoY increase in July This brings the year-to-date total to units, up 1.7% on 2013 (from +1.3% YTD end-july). Page 5 of 12

6 Source: Bloomberg; Millennium investment banking Jerónimo Martins Chairman will resign on November 1 st Jerónimo Martins disclosed this week, Chairman Mr. Soares dos Santos will resign on November 1 st 2013 (effective on December). Recall Mr Soares dos Santos was re-elected last April as Chairman on the Election of the Corporate Bodies for the period , thus its decision is a (partial) surprise. However, we believe its decision is neutral to JM`s stock: i) No changes in CEO (Mr Pedro Soares dos Santos was elected on April 2010), thus there are no changes at executive level. ii) iii) iv) JM shareholder structure will keep its strong family profile. Mr Alexandre Soares dos Santos previously said it will resign in 2013, leaving the company board. previously said it will retire following the opening of JM stores on a 3 rd market (which happened last March in Colombia). v) Mr Alexandre Soares dos Santos is 45 year veteran of JM and 79 years old. vi) will be dedicated to other projects (Chairman of the Family Holding, Foundation Francisco Manuel dos Santos, ). Following Mr. Soares dos Santos departure, it is possible company will return to JM`s rule not to accumulate Chairman and CEO in Soares dos Santos family. Probably company will elect as chairman a non-family member (to be presented and elected on a General Shareholders Meeting), since CEO is a family member (Mr. Pedro Soares dos Santos is Alexandre Soares dos Santos son). Recall Company has a tacit rule: Chairman and CEO could not be from family at same time, thus when Chairman is from family, CEO has to be a non-family member. Recall JM approved at Annual General Meeting held on April 2010 the new corporate bodies for the three-year period of Mr. Alexandre Soares dos Santos kept as JM`s Chairman (nonexecutive) while Mr Pedro Soares dos Santos (Chairman`s son) was elected CEO. To ease new organizational structure and give confidence to the markets, JM decided to keep Mr Alexandre Soares dos Santos as Chairman (even breaking JM`s rule not to accumulate Chairman and CEO in Soares dos Santos family). JMR (51% Jerónimo Martins ) proposes to pay a dividend of per share Jerónimo Martins Retalho (JMR) disclosed on Wednesday (after market close, in a regulatory filing) it will propose on an Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) to pay a gross dividend of per share. Recall Jerónimo Martins has a 51% stake in JMR while Ahold has 49%. The dividend will be paid through partial distribution of Free Reserves amounting to 42mn, thus Page 6 of 12

7 Jerónimo Martins will receive 21.42mn and Ahold 20.58mn. The dividend will be paid twice: i) first payment will be on October (following the EGM which will be held on October 31 st ); ii) second and final payment to be paid on December We highlight if JM decided to distribute JMR dividend, JM shareholders would receive 0.03 per share (which we do not believe it will happen) However, JMR dividend proposal suggests: i) JM could consider to pay an extraordinary dividend (has a strong B/S, strong financial structure) ii) could be an early step to start negotiations to buy Ahold 49% stake in JMR (recurring issue) Retail Calendar: September 30 th : Retail sales in Portugal (August) SECTOR PERFORMANCE PSI20 Media Retail * Electric Utilities Industrials & Other Telecoms & IT Oil & Gas Financials Sector Performance -1 Week (%) Sector Performance - YTD (%) PSI Industrials & Other 26.9 Electric Utilities 12.9 Retail * 10.6 Oil & Gas 5.2 Telecoms & IT 2.6 Financials -3.5 Media * includes Jeronimo Martins and Sonae This week, the PSI20 went down 0.7%. The best performing sector was Media, plus 7.1% and the worst was Financials, minus 2.1%. On a Ytd basis, the PSI20 went up 6.1%. The best performing sector was Industrials & Other, plus 26.9% and the worst was Media, minus 18.2%. AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO This week, Mib Aggressive Portfolio went up 1.97%, outperforming the PSI20 by 2.71pp. Excluding BPI, all stocks contributed for this outperformance. We highlight that the portfolio is composed by the five stocks with the highest upside potential of our coverage universe. It is equal weighted and rebalanced on a weekly basis. LIQUIDITY PORTFOLIO This week, Mib Liquidity Portfolio went up 0.04%, outperforming the PSI20 by 0.78pp. Excluding BPI and Galp Energia, all stocks contributed for this outperformance. We highlight that the portfolio is composed by the five stocks with the highest upside potential of our coverage universe, excluding the less liquid stocks. It is equal weighted and rebalanced on a weekly basis. Page 7 of 12

8 Portfolio Return since inception (30th July 2004) PSI Jul 01-Feb 13-Aug 21-Feb 02-Sep 13-Mar 22-Sep Mib AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO Portfolio weekly return Company Risk Market Price Upside Weekly Performance Rating Price ( ) Target ( ) Potential Return Contribution Deviation EDP Renováveis Low % -0.2% -0.04pp 0.09pp Sonae Industria High % 4.0% 0.80pp 0.94pp Novabase High % 6.3% 1.25pp 1.40pp BPI High % -0.9% -0.19pp -0.04pp Sonae Medium % 0.8% 0.15pp 0.24pp Portfolio 1.97% PSI % Gain/loss 2.71pp Explained by the portfolio 2.62pp Explained by being underweight in the remaining PSI20 stocks 0.08pp Ytd Return Next week Portfolio Changes in Portfolio Company Risk Market Price Upside Rating Price ( ) Target ( ) Potential In Out EDP Renováveis Low % Galp Energia Sonae Sonae Industria High % BPI High % Galp Energia High % Novabase High % Portfolio PSI20 31-Dec 31-Mar 29-Jun 27-Sep Return vs. PSI YTD 1 Month 1 Week Portfolio 71.9% -7.30% -36.6% 22.1% 37.9% 9.6% 2.0% PSI % % -27.6% 2.9% 6.1% 3.3% -0.7% Gain/loss 38.5pp 3.0pp -9.0pp 19.2pp 31.8pp 6.3pp 2.7pp Source: Bloomberg; Millennium investment banking "Mib Aggressive Portfolio" is composed by the five stocks with a higher upside potential of our coverage universe. "Mib Aggressive Portfolio" is equal-weighted and its composition changes at the end of the last trading day of each week. The portfolio YTD return was recalculated on the week of March 15. Page 8 of 12

9 Return since inception (31th December 2011) Portfolio PSI Dec 05-May 09-Sep 14-Jan 21-May 25-Sep Mib LIQUIDITY PORTFOLIO Portfolio weekly return Company Risk Price Upside Weekly Performance Market Price ( ) Rating Target ( ) Potential Return Contribution Deviation EDP Renováveis Low % -0.2% -0.04pp 0.09pp BPI High % -0.9% -0.19pp -0.04pp Sonae Medium % 0.8% 0.15pp 0.24pp Galp Energia High % -1.4% -0.28pp -0.03pp Telefónica Medium % 2.0% 0.40pp 0.54pp Portfolio 0.04% PSI % Gain/loss 0.78pp Explained by the portfolio 2.62pp Explained by being underweight in the remaining PSI20 stocks -1.85pp Ytd Return Portfolio PSI Dec 23-Feb 18-Apr 11-Jun 04-Aug 27-Sep Next week Portfolio Changes in Portfolio Company Risk Price Upside Market Price ( ) Rating Target ( ) Potential In Out EDP Renováveis Low % BES Telefónica BPI High % Galp Energia High % BES High % Sonae Medium % Return vs. PSI YTD 1 Month 1 Week Portfolio % 26.1% 7.8% 0.0% PSI % 2.9% 6.1% 3.3% -0.7% Gain/loss pp 20.0pp 4.5pp 0.8pp Source: Bloomberg; Millennium investment banking "Mib Liquidity Portfolio" is composed by the five stocks with a higher upside potential, excluding less liquid stocks. "Mib Liquidity Portfolio" is equal-weighted and its composition changes at the end of the last trading day of each week. The portfolio YTD return was recalculated on the week of March 15. Page 9 of 12

10 Latest Target Risk Trnvr ( mn) M Cap Change (%) EPS P / E EV / Sales EV / EBITDA Div Yield P/BV Upsd Rating Pr ( ) YE13 Rating 3m 6m ( mn)o Week 1M 3M 12M YTD E 2014E E 2014E E 2014E E 2014E E 2013E PSI 20 6, , IBEX 9, , Financials , BCP (1) , BES % Buy High , loss % 0.0% 0.4 BPI % Buy High , % 0.0% 0.7 Telecoms , % 6.3% 2.1 Telefónica % Buy Medium , % 6.5% 2.3 Portugal Telecom % Buy Medium , % 5.9% 1.1 Zon Optimus % Reduce Medium , % 2.8% 1.8 Sonaecom % Neutral High % 4.3% 0.7 Media % - - Impresa (2) % - - Media Capital (2) % - - Cofina (2) % - - Technology Indra (3) % Buy High , % 3.0% 1.6 Novabase (3) % Buy High % 2.5% 1.1 Utilities , % 4.2% 0.7 Iberdrola % Buy Low , % 7.6% 0.6 EDP % Neutral Low , % 6.8% 1.1 EDP Renováveis % Buy Low , % 1.2% 0.6 REN % Buy Low , % 7.8% 1.1 Conglomerates , Sonae % Buy Medium , % 3.6% 1.4 Semapa % Reduce High % 3.5% 1.1 Sonae Capital % Sell High loss loss loss loss % 0.0% 0.2 Retail , % 1.9% 7.3 Inditex (3) % Reduce Medium , % 1.9% 7.4 Jerónimo Martins % Neutral Medium , % 1.9% 6.9 Industrials , % - - Sonae Industria % Buy High loss loss loss % 23.8% 0.6 Altri % Sell High % 1.5% 1.7 Portucel % Reduce Medium , % 7.9% 1.4 Construction Mota-Engil % Sell High % 3.8% 1.3 Oil & Gas Galp Energia % Buy High , % 2.3% 1.8 (1) We do not have a recommendation on BCP, as Mib is a registered trademark of BCP; (2) Not Covered; (3) Price Target YE14 Page 10 of 12

11 DISCLOSURES This report has been prepared on behalf of Millennium investment banking (Mib), a registered trademark of Banco Comercial Português, S.A. (Millennium bcp). Millennium bcp is regulated by Comissão de Mercado de Valores Mobiliários. Recommendations: Buy means more than 10% absolute return; Neutral means between 0% and +10% absolute return; Reduce means between -10% and 0% absolute return; Sell means less than -10% absolute return. Unless otherwise specified, the time frame for price targets included in this report is current year-end or next year-end. Risk is defined by the analyst s view in a qualitative way (High, Medium, Low). Usually we update our models and price targets in between 3 and 9 months. Millennium bcp prohibits its analysts and members of their households to own any shares of the companies covered by them. BCP group may have business relationships with the companies mentioned in this report. Millennium bcp, expects to receive or intends to seek compensations for investment banking services from the companies mentioned in this report. The views expressed above, accurately reflect personal views of the authors. They have not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. There were not any agreements between the companies covered and the analysts regarding the recommendation. Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of BCP group, which includes investment banking revenues. BCP group has more than 2% of EDP. BCP group was chosen to evaluate EDP regarding the 8th stage of the privatization process. BCP group was chosen to evaluate REN regarding the 2nd stage of the privatization process. A member of the Executive Board of Directors of Millennium bcp is member of the General and Supervisory Board of EDP - Energias de Portugal, SA. Banco Millennium bcp Investimento, S.A. (merged into Millennium bcp) was chosen as a joint global coordinator of the Initial Public Offering of EDP Renováveis. Banco Millennium bcp Investimento, S.A. (merged into Millennium bcp) was part of the consortium, as a Co-Leader, of BES rights issue, done in April Millennium bcp was part of the consortium, as Co-Manager, of BES rights issue completed in May Millenniumbcp through its investment banking department is providing investment banking services to Tagus Holdings S.a.r.l. ( Offeror in the launch of a tender offer over Brisa - Autoestradas de Portugal, S.A. shares). Recommendations on Millennium bcp covered companies (%) Recommendation Aug-13 Jul-13 Jun-13 Mar-13 Dec-12 Jun-12 Dec-11 Dec-10 Dec-09 Dec-08 Dec-07 Dec-06 Dec-05 Dec-04 Buy 64% 68% 77% 76% 77% 78% 68% 79% 63% 54% 41% 37% 30% 63% Neutral 14% 9% 9% 10% 12% 4% 11% 7% 15% 4% 27% 11% 40% 6% Reduce 18% 18% 14% 14% 4% 0% 0% 0% 7% 0% 0% 21% 5% 6% Sell 5% 5% 0% 0% 4% 7% 7% 4% 4% 0% 14% 16% 5% 0% Unrated/Under Revision 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 11% 14% 11% 11% 42% 18% 16% 20% 25% Performance 1.5% 3.0% -4.6% 3.0% 20.4% -14% -28% -10% 33% -51% 16% 30% 13% na PSI 20 5,808 5,721 5,557 5,822 5,655 4,698 5,494 7,588 8,464 6,341 13,019 11,198 8,619 7,600 DISCLAIMER This information is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to enter into any particular deal or contract. It consists of data compiled by or of opinions or estimates from Banco Comercial Português, S.A. and no representation or warranty is made as to its accuracy or completeness. This information is merely an auxiliary means of analysis to be used by its recipients, who will be solely responsible for its use, including for any losses or damages that may, directly or indirectly, derive from it. Its reproduction is not allowed without permission from the BCP group. The data herein disclosed are merely indicative and reflect the market conditions prevailing on the date they have been collected. Thus, its accuracy and timing must absolutely be confirmed before its usage. Any alteration in the market conditions shall imply the introduction of changes in this report. This information / these opinions may be altered without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by other business areas of BCP group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results. Page 11 of 12

12 OFFICE LOCATIONS Millennium investment banking Av. José Malhoa, Lote Lisboa Portugal Telephone Fax / 39 Equity Team Luis Feria - Head of Equities Equity Research António Seladas, CFA - Head (Industrials and Small Caps) Alexandra Delgado, CFA (Telecoms and IT) João Flores (Media and Retail) Vanda Mesquita (Banks, Utilities and Oil&Gas) Ramiro Loureiro (Market Analysis) Sónia Martins (Market Analysis) Sónia Primo (Publishing) Prime Brokerage Vitor Almeida Equity Sales/Trading Paulo Cruz - Head Gonçalo Lima Jorge Caldeira Nuno Sousa Paulo Santos Pedro Ferreira Cruz Pedro Gonçalves Pedro Lalanda Equity Derivatives Maria Cardoso Baptista, CFA - Head Ana Lagarelhos Diogo Justino Marco Barata

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