The shape of air travel markets over the next 20 years

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1 The shape of air travel markets over the next 20 years Brian Pearce, Chief Economist To represent, lead and serve the airline industry

2 IATA Economics 2

3 Air travel likely to double over next 20 years 9,000 Outlook for worldwide O-D passenger trips, million 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 Liberal policies scenario Current policies Closing borders scenario x growth billion additional O-D passenger trips 3,000 2, IATA Economics 3

4 But growth differs widely by market Additional million O-D passengers a year by IATA Economics 4

5 Developing economies show fastest growth % y/y Drivers of passenger growth ( , %CAGR, selected countries) % y/y 8% 8% Living Standards Population & Demographics Travel cost Overall growth 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% -2% -2% IATA Economics 5

6 But US sees 2 nd largest rise in numbers 900 Drivers of additional passenger numbers, million Living standards Demographics Price and other Overall growth IATA Economics 6

7 Flights per capita* (2013, logarithmic scale) Living standards are important up to a point New Zealand Maldives Bahamas Singapore Hong Kong Norway Iceland Switzerland Seychelles Australia UK Luxembourg Brazil Sweden 1.00 Qatar USA Japan France 0.10 Russia China 0.01 Uganda GDP per capita (2013, US$ '000s) IATA Economics 7

8 Flights per capita* (2013, logarithmic scale) They are certainly key for emerging markets Belize Maldives Seychelles 1.00 Indonesia Malaysia Barbados Russia Uruguay 0.10 China Brazil India Gabon Slovakia Swaziland 0.01 Uganda 0.00 Middle-income High-income Low-income GDP per capita (2013, US$ '000s) IATA Economics 8

9 Countries becoming middle or high income IATA Economics 9

10 Frequency of trips rises disproportionately Trips/ year/ person Months before next trip Low-income Middle-income High-income Below US$20K per person Above US$20K per person IATA Economics 10

11 Demographic change dramatically different % change % Demographic change, % 15% Population change 'Flying' population change 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% India Indonesia Turkey US Brazil France China Germany Japan Russia IATA Economics 11

12 Working-age population makes more trips 1.8 Ratio of air passengers by age group to population by age group compared to average 'Overrepresented' age groups 'Underrepresented' age groups to to to to to to to to to Source: UK CAA IATA Economics 12

13 Emerging market population much younger Old-age dependency ratio, % (65+/15-64) Japan Germany US China Brazil Turkey Indonesia India IATA Economics 13

14 Trend in cost of travel is still downwards US$ in 2013 prices to fly a tonne kilometer US$ in 2013 prices per tonne kilometer Unit cost and the price of air transport, adjusted for inflation Unit cost (US$/ATK) Price (US$/RTK) IATA Economics 14

15 Scope for lower fares on a number of markets Passenger yields, US$ per RPK 0.19 Passenger yields and average trip length Within Europe Within Africa Within South America Within East Asia Within ASEAN ASEAN- E Asia Middle Eastrest of world North-South America North Atlantic Pacific ASEAN-Africa ASEAN-Europe China-North America ASEAN-North America Europe- Australia 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 Average trip length (kms) IATA Economics 15

16 Resulting in much change over next 20 years Rank by size of O-D passenger flows in, out & within country US rank rank 0 1 China China 2 2 US UK 3 3 India Japan 4 4 UK Germany 5 5 Brazil Spain 6 6 Indonesia France 7 7 Spain Italy 8 8 Germany India 9 9 Japan Brazil France IATA Economics 16

17 Thank you for listening New forecast service: 4,000 O-D country-pairs JV with IATA and Tourism Economics Global, country reports, web-tool For more information: David Oxley, IATA, David Goodger, Tourism Economics, IATA Economics 17

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