Mid-Plains Community College. Area Population and Nebraska K-12 Education. Population, Population Growth

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1 Area Population and Nebraska K-12 Education Mid-Plains Community College (MPCC) was established as a result of Nebraska legislation enacted in 1973 and Three existing, separately founded institutions, McCook Community College founded in 1926, North Platte Community College founded in 1964, and Mid-Plains Vocational-Technical College founded in 1971, were merged to form MPCC. MPCC serves an 18-county area of west-central Nebraska comprised of over 20,500 square miles of rural farmland, canyons, rivers, lakes and sandhills. Nine of the 18 counties have population densities under two people per square mile. The six largest population centers in the 18-county area are: North Platte 24,534; McCook 7,697; Ogallala 4,606; Broken Bow 3,491; Valentine 2,789; and Imperial 2,091 (Year 2013 estimates, U.S. Census). Estimates for population change in the 18-county area as of July 1, , are presented below in Illus Population, Population Growth Illustration 1.1: Population Estimates for the 18-County Area through July 1, 2014 Annual Estimates of the Resident Population: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2014 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division (05/18/2015) Publication Date: July 15th,

2 Estimates for the State of Nebraska indicate a population growth, up 3.0% percent, from 2010 to 2014 (U.S. Census Bureau). Using the same data, the total MPCC 18-county area population will essentially remain constant with an estimated.67% increase. The MPCC area is experiencing a slight decrease of residents in the age composite (see Illus. 1.2), with the largest percent of decrease experienced by the age group. Using the U.S. Census 2010 as a baseline, the total decrease in this age composite was 1,615 residents (23%). Alternatively, there is an increase in the 50 and older age group (see Illus. 1.3), showing that MPCC is experiencing an increase in the aging population. The largest increase was in the age group with an increase of 715 residents (16%). As the aging population continues to increase and younger populations continue to decrease, the MPCC area is experiencing a loss of some of the prime age groups needed for communities to grow and flourish. Illustration 1.2: Concentrated Population Decrease, Age ,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55, , ,988 Illustration 1.3: Concentrated Population Increase, Age ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50, , ,226 Publication Date: July 15th,

3 Examining population trends from the and age groups can give MPCC an advanced look at recruiting issues they may face in the future. If there is an increase in the upcoming generation, the number of potential students for MPCC increases. Alternatively, if the upcoming generation is decreasing in population, this leaves fewer students in the 18-county area to recruit; thus more focus may need to be placed on concentrated recruiting or recruiting outside the 18-county area. Illustration 1.4: Population Estimates for the 18-County Area, Yrs. & Yrs. Age Groups 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,382 5,947 5,712 7,322 6,111 6,064 U.S. Census 2000 U.S. Census 2010 U.S. Census Est Source: Office of Institutional Research & Planning; U.S. Census Bureau (7/02/15). Illustration 1.5: 18-County Population Growth by Age Yrs Yrs. 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, U.S. Census 2014 Population Estimate Source: Office of Institutional Research & Planning; U.S. Census Bureau (7/02/15). Publication Date: July 15th,

4 Illustration 1.6: Population Estimates for the 18-County Area by specific demographic components through July 1, 2014 Nebraska County in MPCC 18-County Area Arthur County, Nebraska -7 Blaine County, Nebraska 26 Chase County, Nebraska 12 Cherry County, Nebraska 49 Custer County, Nebraska -215 Dundy County, Nebraska -122 Frontier County, Nebraska -51 Hayes County, Nebraska -34 Hitchcock County, Nebraska -7 Hooker County, Nebraska -8 Keith County, Nebraska -247 Lincoln County, Nebraska -473 Logan County, Nebraska -13 Loup County, Nebraska -40 McPherson County, Nebraska -41 Perkins County, Nebraska -79 Red Willow County, Nebraska -188 Thomas County, Nebraska Population Estimates Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Population Change Total Population Change [1] Natural Increase April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2014 Vital Events Net Migration Births Deaths Total International Domestic ,861 1, , [1] Total population change includes a residual. This residual represents the change in population that cannot be attributed to any specific demographic component. Source: Office of Institutional Research & Planning; Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change: April1, 2010 to July 1, U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division Illustration 1.7: MPCC Area Campuses, 6 Largest Population Centers, 2013 Population Estimates compared to the 2010 U.S. Census Imperial Valentine Broken Bow Ogallala McCook North Platte 2,043 2,071 2,751 2,737 3,516 3,559 4,671 4,737 7,682 7, American Community Survey 2010 Census 24,609 24,733 Source: Office of Institutional Research & Planning; 2010 U.S. Census & American Community Survey (7/01/15). Publication Date: July 15th,

5 Illustration 1.8: 18-County Area Population by Gender 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 47,950 46,346 45,543 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 46,342 45,847 45,252 10,000 0 U.S. Census 2000 U.S. Census 2010 U.S. Census 2014 Estimate Male Female Total According to the 2014 U.S. Census Population Estimate, the Mid-Plains Community College 18-county area will be composed of 45,252 males and 45,543 females. Illustration 1.9: 2014 MPCC Area Population Estimate vs. State of Nebraska Population Estimate by Gender Total Men % Men Women % Women 18-County Service Area 90,795 45, % 45, % State of Nebraska 1,881, , % 944, % Source: Office of Institutional Research & Planning, U.S. Census Bureau (7/02/2015). During the period of years between April 1, 2010 and July 1, 2014 there were 4,369 births and 3,975 deaths in the MPCC 18-County Area. This represents a natural increase in the population of 394. Publication Date: July 15th,

6 Nebraska K-12 Education: Education in Nebraska Over the last decade, Nebraska has launched a variety of initiatives aimed at improving education. Nebraska is one of 40 states currently engaging in P-16 (preschool through college) programs. L. Dennis Smith, then president of the University of Nebraska, and Doug Christensen, Nebraska Commissioner of Education launched the P-16 movement in The initiative was endorsed in 1999 by the University of Nebraska Board of Regents and the Nebraska State Board of Education. Illustration 1.10: and Fall 2014 Nebraska s Students at a Glance Nebraska s Students at a Glance 307,398 students in K-12 public schools* ( ) 117,281 students in Nebraska s Public Postsecondary Education System (Fall 2014)** o 59,761 students enrolled in public 4-year Nebraska colleges & universities (Fall 2014)** o 57,520 students in Nebraska s public community colleges (Fall 2014)** *Source: Nebraska Department of Education **Source: (CCPE) Illustration 1.11: Nebraska State Accountability: NeSA Scores Percent Proficient: Meets/Exceeds Combined Results for All Grades Tested Nebraska State Accountability: NeSA Scores Percent Proficient: Meets/Exceeds Combined Results for All Grades Tested % Reading Mathematics Science Writing % 63 % % 67 % 67 % % 69 % 70 % 68 % ^ % 71 % 72 % -- ^^ Publication Date: July 15th,

7 ^ Students at grades 8 and 11 experienced formatting issues with the NeSA-Writing online test administration. While research into the score results does not indicate an effect on student results, it also does not assure there was no effect. Scores should be interpreted with caution and are not included in Nebraska Performance Accountability System [NePAS]. ^^ In 2014 students in grades 8 and 11 experienced technology issues with the online test. Valid results are not available for all districts or for the state for NeSA-Writing at grades 8 and 11. Source: State of the Schools Report DEMOGRAPHICS In the academic year, there were 307,398 students in Nebraska K-12 public schools. In , 44.93% of the state s K-12 public school student s qualified for free or reduced-priced lunches a standard indicator of disadvantage. There are several rural schools or districts that do not have a lunch program; if lunch programs were available, it is likely the number qualifying for free or reduced meals would be higher. Illustration 1.12: State of Nebraska English Language Learners Years State Percentage of English Language Learners Source: State of the Schools Report Publication Date: July 15th,

8 STATE OF THE SCHOOLS REPORT: A REPORT ON NEBRASKA PUBLIC SCHOOLS The annual State of the Schools Report provides information and data about Nebraska public schools and student performance. The report highlights the performance of students by district and school building in reading, mathematics, writing, and science as well as the performance by groups of students, including race and ethnicity, poverty, special education, and English Language Learners. This year the report includes the final year for the current form of Nebraska Performance Accountability System (NePAS) results. NePAS ranks school districts by status, improvement, growth, and graduation rates. Beginning next year, the SOSR will include a redesigned NePAS as part of the AQuESTT model and will place all schools and districts in one of four classification levels. The following chart shows the number of school districts demonstrating improvement and growth in testing areas based on the two most recent years of data. When two years of scale score data were compared, the majority of districts demonstrated improvement as well as positive growth, as reflected in the counts below. However, some districts had negative growth. Zero (0) is comparable to one year of learning for a student. Illustration 1.13: Testing Areas Improvement and Growth Rankings by Academic Area Rankings READING MATHEMATICS SCIENCE Improvement 186 of 248 districts 162 of 248 districts 131 of 248 districts Growth 203 of 248 districts 153 of 248 districts Source: State of the Schools Report: Welcome Letter The overarching goal of Nebraska is college and career ready students when they graduate from high school as a basis for a successful work, military and/or college experience COLLEGE GOING AND SATURATION RATES Illustration 1.14 and 1.15 provide information on area high school graduates from the MPCC 18-County Area. Information found in the tables include high schools located in the MPCC 18-County area, the number of high school graduates from each high school in May of 2014, and the number of students from each high school who enrolled at MPCC in the Summer of 2014 or the following Fall of Publication Date: July 15th,

9 Illustration 1.14: MPCC Area High Schools No. of Graduates & College Going Rate School # of On-Time HS Grads No. of Grads Who Went to College College Going Rate Anselmo-Merna High School % Ansley High School * * * Arnold High School * * * Arthur County High School * * * Brady High School % Broken Bow High School % Callaway High School % Chase County High School % Cody-Kilgore High School % Dundy Co Stratton High School % Eustis-Farnam High School % Hayes Center Secondary School * * * Hershey High School % High School At Dunning * * * Hitchcock Co Jr/Sr High School % Loup County High School * * * Maxwell High School % Maywood High School * * * Mc Pherson County High School * * * McCook Senior High School % Medicine Valley Jr-Sr High Sch % Mullen High School * * * North Platte High School % Ogallala High School % Paxton High School % Perkins County High School % Sargent High School % Southwest High Sch-Indianola % St. Patrick s Jr Sr High School 21 N/A N/A Stapleton High School % Sutherland High School % Thedford High School * * * Valentine High School % Wallace High School % Wauneta-Palisade High School * * * Area Total 1, % *If number of graduates or number who went to college are less than 10, both are masked. Source: Nebraska s Coordinating Commission for Postsecondary Education; MPCC Office of Institutional Research & Planning (7/08/2015). Publication Date: July 15th,

10 Illustration 1.15: High School Saturation Rates for Academic Year County Name School Name No. of On- Time HS Grads High School Grads Attending MPCC, , , or High School Saturation Rate Custer Anselmo-Merna High School % Custer Ansley High School * N/A N/A Custer Arnold High School * 1 N/A Arthur Arthur County High School * N/A N/A Lincoln Brady High School % Custer Broken Bow High School % Custer Callaway High School % Chase Chase County High School % Cherry Cody-Kilgore High School % Dundy Dundy Co Stratton High School % Frontier Eustis-Farnam High School % Hayes Hayes Center Secondary School * 1 N/A Lincoln Hershey High School % Blaine High School At Dunning * 2 N/A Hitchcock Hitchcock Co Jr/Sr High School % Loup Loup County High School * N/A N/A Lincoln Maxwell High School % Frontier Maywood High School * 4 N/A McPherson Mc Pherson County High School * N/A N/A Red Willow McCook Senior High School % Frontier Medicine Valley Jr-Sr High Sch % Hooker Mullen High School * N/A N/A Lincoln North Platte High School % Keith Ogallala High School % Keith Paxton High School % Perkins Perkins County High School % Custer Sargent High School % Red Willow Southwest High Sch-Indianola % Lincoln St. Patrick s Jr Sr High School % Logan Stapleton High School % Lincoln Sutherland High School % Thomas Thedford High School * N/A N/A Cherry Valentine High School % Lincoln Wallace High School % Chase Wauneta-Palisade High School * 1 N/A Area Total 1, % *If number of graduates or number who went to college are less than 10, both are masked. Source: Office of Institutional Research & Planning; Entering Freshmen Database; Nebraska Department of Education (7/08/15). Publication Date: July 15th,

11 The overall saturation rate for the MPCC area was 25.3%. The high schools with the largest saturation rate were Southwest High School, Red Willow County (60.9%), Maxwell High School, Lincoln County (56.0%), and Brady High school, Lincoln County (52.6%). Two high schools had a saturation rate of 0. They were Eustis-Farnam High School, Frontier County and Sargent High School, Custer County. There were six high schools who reported less than ten graduates or less than ten students attending college. The actual number of students is unknown as they were reported with an asterisk to protect the anonymity of the students. These saturation rates are not calculable (NA). Mid-Plains Community College currently serves 35 High Schools in the 18-county service area. Publication Date: July 15th,