RECENT AND CURRENT ACTIVITIES OF THE TCWC Port Moresby. SIXTH TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCs/TCWCs TECHNICAL COORDINATION MEETING BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA
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1 RECENT AND CURRENT ACTIVITIES OF THE TCWC Port Moresby SIXTH TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCs/TCWCs TECHNICAL COORDINATION MEETING BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA 2 TO 5 NOVEMBER 2009 Presented by Mr. Jimmy GOMOGA ASSISTANT DIRECTOR MANAGER: FORECASTING & WARNING CENTRE PNG NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PH: FAX: Mobile: jgomoga@pngmet.gov.pg
2 Introduction Area of responsibly Monitoring Role in the Tropics Port Moresby TCWC Role Tropical Cyclone Season 2005/ /09 High seas forecasts and warnings Non Meteorological Information Training & Research
3 Port Moresby Forecasting Centre
4 Area of Responsibly Port Moresby TCWC Port Moresby is designated as a TCWC with geographic specialization area of responsibly bounded by the EQ 141E, 10S 141E, 09S 144E, 12S 147E, 12S 155E, 08S 155E, 05S 160E, EQ 160E, EQ 141E.
5 ROLE OF FORECASTING & WARNING CENTRE PUBLIC & SEVERE WEATHER (REAL TIME MONITORING & ANALYSIS) (NOWCASTING 0-1 DAY, MID-RANGE 1-5 DAYS & LONG RANGE >5 DAYS) AVIATION WEATHER TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKING & FORECASTING
6 Forecasting Tools Available Satellite Images Available Numerical Models Near real time observations from satellites RANET, EMWIN, LRIT (Microwave prod.) Real time observations from Observations network SATAID, Dvorak Internet based Models, NOGAPS, JTWC, BOM, ECMWF, UK MET
7 TECHNIQUES AND DATA USED OPERATIONALLY DVORAK TECHNIQUE BUT MANUAL NOT MANY YOUNG FORECASTERS ARE FAMILIAR WITH IT. Use satellite and internet communication a real time weather data is downloaded and analysis to write daily weather forecasts and issue of severe weather and TC warnings. Disseminated to users and general public via and fax communication which are then aired by the local media stations.
8 Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) 1998 Prentice-Hall, Inc. ITCZ -- Moves south in January
9 Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) 1998 Prentice-Hall, Inc. ITCZ -- Moves north in July
10 Tropical Cyclone Season Annually, from 1 November to 31 May, Port Moresby produces a daily Tropical Cyclone Potential Bulletin for National Disaster Centre (NDC) to keep them abreast of the latest expectations of cyclone activity in the South Pacific and to help them with their disaster relief planning. Additional advisories are also provided as necessary during the life of a tropical cyclone to fill any information gaps. During this same period, a routine weekly forecaster-to-forecaster conference call is carried out between Brisbane TCWC and Port Moresby forecasters to discuss the situation and developments over the next few days. Port Moresby also provided forecasting advice to NDC for disastrous earthquakes and Tsunamis.
11 Seasonal & Monthly Variation of Tropical Cyclones Tropical Cyclones On the average, PNG receives one tropical cyclone a season Many of these have occurred in Jan/ February 2002: TC Upia late in the season, May - June 2007: TC Guba early in the season, Nov
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13 Tropical Cyclone Products TC Warnings Strong Wind Warnings Track & Treat Maps issued by BOM & JTWC Satellite images.
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15 Samples of TC WARNING TC ADVISORIES UP TO 48 HRS. WARNINGS ON TROPICAL CYCLONES AND STORM SURGES 24HRS every 6 HRS TSUNAMIS, TIDAL, ADVISORIES OR PRESS RELEASES
16 TIME SERIES & TEMP PROFILE
17 NWS and Disaster Office Disaster Office manages disasters NWS provide technical advice on meteorologically related disasters NWS issue warnings before disasters, bulletins during disasters and conduct post mortem/assessments after disasters
18 Cont After the disaster, officials visit the affected areas and make assessments on the scale of damage/loss and make recommendations for future improvements
19 seasons from 2005/2006 to 2008/2009, In the 4 seasons from 2005/2006 to 2008/2009, 4 out of the 10 tropical depressions that formed in the Coral and Solomon Seas-South Pacific became tropical cyclones and crossed into the Port Moresby area of responsibility. Of these, Ingrid a small intense cyclone formed on 6 th March 2005 as a weak depression in the western Coral Seas and tracked east and become a tropical cyclone. Large sea swells generated by Ingrid were felt along the southern coasts of Papua New Guinea. On 16 April a tropical low developed just to the east of Papua New Guinea, and began to drift southwest into the Coral Sea. It developed into a tropical cyclone on 17 April, and took a more easterly track towards the north Queensland coast. TC Monica continued to develop as it approached Queensland, and crossed the coast just to the south of Lockhart River, as a Category 3 cyclone, on the afternoon of 19 April. TC Kate formed as a Tropical Depression on the 22 February 2006, rreached Category 2 on the 23rd February and slipped into the Papua New Guinea waters later that afternoon. TC Piere formed as a tropical depression in the south eastern Solomon Seas on the 15 th May 2006 and tracked west into PNG. It developed into a category 1 on the 17 th May and made landfall on the 19 th May. There were no casualties. Guba formed on November 13, 2007 in the northern Solomon Sea, close to the island of New Britain, and reached tropical cyclone intensity the next day by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) in Brisbane, with the TCWC in Port Moresby assigning the name Guba. It meandered in the northern Coral Sea for the next week, strengthening to a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone on November 16. It posed a threat to the Australian Cape York Peninsula, but remained offshore, and finally dissipated on November 20. Guba was a classical example of the split system due to the mountain (Owen Stanley range) barrier. TC Guba was in the Coral Sea and not over Oro, however, due to the maintain range barrier, a large cloud build was observed to the north eastern sector and was over Oro Province for 3-4 days and caused the flooding there. Flooding in Papua New Guinea led to at least 200 deaths. In the Oro Province, about 2,000 people were evacuated as a result of the flooding. Roads, bridges and 40 houses were washed away, as tides in the area reached two metres high. In the provincial capital, Popondetta, the water supply and electrical infrastructure was damaged, and road access was blocked. Papua New Guinea's national airline, Air Niugini, suspended flights to Popondetta's main airport. The Rabaraba district in Milne Bay Province was also hit by flooding, with 30 houses and food gardens washed away, and forcing the evacuation of about 100 people. The government in Papua New Guinea reported that an estimated 145,000 people were affected from the flooding in Oro Province. Six days of torrential rain led to a damage total of 200 million kina ($71.4 million USD). The torrential rain was the worst seen in the region in 30 years, according to the local people.
20 Meteorological Satellites, CONT
21 Research & Training Importantly, PNG National Weather Service is primarily focused on operational forecasting, and the research and development work undertaken is focused in the area of improving tools, knowledge and skills of forecasters, and the quality and efficiency of the output. Port Moresby conducts annual mentoring workshops for forecasters and pre seasonal briefings in preparation for the coming cyclone season. The input to these workshops and briefings has been given added value with the help of very experienced forecasters from Brisbane TCWC who have had vast experience in forecasting and tracking of tropical cyclones. WMO, Pacific Desk in Hawaii US, JICA, Meteo-France, Generic BOM Training.
22 Biblical El Nino Years Vs Observed El Nino Years Biblical Predictions Observed Events Remarks 1899/ /1901 Exact 1913/ /1915 Exact 1927/ /1926 Occurred 1 year before predictions 1941/ /1942 Exact 1955/ /1958 After 1 year 1969/ /1970 Exact 1983/ /1983 Exact 1997/ /1998 Exact 2011/2012???? 2025/2026???? 2039/2040????
23 Biblical La Nina Years Vs Observed La Nina Years Biblical Predictions Observed Events Remarks 1906/ /1907 Exact 1920/ /1921 Exact 1934/ / years before predictions 1948/ /1950 Exact 1962/ / year after 1976/ /1976 Exact 1990/ / year before 2004/ /2006 Exact 2018/2019???? 2032/2033???? 2046/2047????
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25 EL Nino/ La Nina Closer Look 7 years of Drought 7 years of Plenty
26 Port Moresby TC March 2005
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31 TC Kate February 2006 Tropical Cyclone Kate formed as a Tropical Depression at UTC Reached Category 2 at UTC on Monday 23rd February Slipped into the Papua New Guinea waters at UTC on Monday 23rd February 2006.
32 TC Kate Track Track of Tropical Cyclone Kate Date/ Time (UTC) Position Central Pressure (hpa) Category Distance from nearest town Latitude Longitude (km) Feb S E 1002 TD (Daru) Feb l S E 1000 TD (Daru) Feb S E 1000 TD (Daru) Feb l S E (Port Moresby) Feb S E (Port Moresby) Feb S E (Port Moresby) Feb S E (Port Moresby) Feb S E (Port Moresby) Feb S E 1000 Ex TC (Port Moresby) Feb S E 1001 Ex TC (Port Moresby)
33 91H GHz image of Kate near peak intensity at 2248UTC 22 February 2006 (left) and 81H at 1045UTC showing exposed low level circulation well to the west of the deep convection.
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39 TC ANALYSIS Kate formed very close to the boarder of Australia and Papua New Guinea and tracked eastward eventually crossed into its area of responsibility as Category 2. Much of the area of strong and gale winds remained on the southwest of the centre of TC Kate and therefore only strong winds were felt along the southern coast line of Papua New Guinea. However, following lesions can be learnt from Kate; 1. Weakening was due to differential steering between 850 hpa and 500 hpa levels. 2. Differential steering currents at low and mid levels brought about the position of the low level centre well west of the deep convection. 3. Warm air advection wrapped around the eastern side as did the convection, thereby strengthening and weakening the system. 4. Near border formation and dissipation of Kate was quiet difficult on when to issue a cyclone watch and handover responsibilities so it was jointly monitored.
40 Tropical Cyclone GUBA, Nov 2007
41 Flooding in Papua New Guinea led to at least 200 deaths. In the Oro Province, about 2,000 people were evacuated as a result of the flooding. Roads, bridges and 40 houses were washed away, as tides in the area reached two metres high. In the provincial capital, Popondetta, the water supply and electrical infrastructure was damaged, and road access was blocked. Papua New Guinea's national airline, Air Niugini, suspended flights to Popondetta's main airport. The Rabaraba district in Milne Bay Province was also hit by flooding, with 30 houses and food gardens washed away, and forcing the evacuation of about 100 people. The government in Papua New Guinea reported that an estimated 145,000 people were affected from the flooding in Oro Province. Six days of torrential rain led to a damage total of 200 million kina ($71.4 million USD). The torrential rain was the worst seen in the region in 30 years, according to the local people.
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43 Current & Future Improvements 2007/ 08: Installation of new Forecaster Workstations 2009: Installation of LIRT System & Digital Atmosphere Future: Upgrade of Forecasting Tools Manual to Semi/ automated Forecasting workstations
44 THANK YOU ALL
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