1 st Annual ABA Commercial Real Estate Survey Report. April 2016

Transcription

1 1 st Annual ABA Commercial Real Estate Survey Report April 2016

2 Acknowledgements The American Bankers Association extends its appreciation to the bankers who contributed essential information to the 1 st edition of the Commercial Real Estate Lending Survey. Their participation in this extensive study, despite already heavy reporting burdens, ensured the success of this research project. Staff Contributors: Bob Davis, Executive Vice President, American Bankers Association Rod Alba, SVP, Sr. Regulatory Counsel, American Bankers Association Ashley Gunn, Senior Banking Analyst, American Bankers Association Data Processing and Analysis provided by: Michael Mazur, Senior Manager, American Bankers Association 2

3 A Summary of Key Findings The 1 ST Real Estate Lending Survey had the participation of 136 banks. The data was collected from February 4, 2016 to March 21, 2016, and in most cases reports calendar year or year-end results. In other cases, data reflect current activities and expectations at the time of data collection. Of the survey participants, 77 percent of respondents were commercial banks and 23 percent were savings institutions. About 61 percent of the participating institutions had assets of less than $1 billion. This survey serves as an important resource for members as it provides an unbiased yearly snapshot of industry activity and bankers responses to market, regulatory, and other developments. This year s survey is notable in reflecting the increased impact of new regulations on the commercial real estate industry. Banks continue to be active in CRE lending as evidenced by construction and CRE concentration levels; 19% of respondents have over 100% construction concentration and 9% have over 300% CRE concentration 82 percent of banks anticipate increasing their capital concentrations claiming strategic planning as the main driver for the increase Market characteristics remained constant as approximately 50% reported that demand, liquidity, cap rates and underwriting standards are all in line with levels seen in 2014; demand and liquidity showed the greatest variance Multifamily, office and retail represent the most active lending classes, making up approximately 62% of a banks CRE lending portfolio on an average basis Exactly half the banks surveyed currently have outstanding loans classified as HVCRE, and approximately one-third of respondents increased pricing, after the rule went into effect, to reflect the additional capital cost from the HVCRE classification About 65% of banks expect some type of measurable reduction in credit availability as a result of the recently released Statement on Prudent Risk Management for CRE Lending 3

4 Participant Profile Breakdown Bank Asset Size 4% 4% 4% 1% Up to $50 million 12% 31% 10% 13% 21% Bank Charter Type $51-$100 million $101-$200 million $ million $301-$500 million $501 million-$1 billion $1 billion-$10 billion $10 billion-$20 billion Over $20 billion Bank Ownership Type 15% 85% Primary Federal Regulator Stock Mutual/MHC 23% 77% Savings Bank/Institution Commercial Bank 32% 19% 49% OCC FDIC Federal Reserve 4

5 Bank s Headquarters New England (Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont) Mid-Atlantic (D.C., Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia) Middle Southeast (Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia) Lower Southeast (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, Puerto Rico) Great Lakes (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Wisconsin) 3% 9% 12% 23% 22% South (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas) Plains (Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, North Dakota, Nebraska, South Dakota) 7% 8% Mountain (Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming) Southwest (Arizona, California, Hawaii, New Mexico, Nevada) 4% 4% Northwest (Alaska, Oregon, Washington) 8% 5

6 CRE Capital Concentrations Construction, Land, Development, and Other Land Multifamily, Nonfarm Residential Properties and Construction 19% 4% 9% 2% 35% 0% 1 to 25% 26% 34% 0% 1 to 99% 19% 26 to 50% 51 to 99% 100 to 199% 200 to 299% 100% and over 300% and over 23% 29% 6

7 CRE Capital Concentrations Continued Does your bank anticipate increasing your CRE/capital concentrations in 2016? What is the main driver for that increase? Both 51% Neither 18% CRE only 30% Construction only 1% Strategic planning 39% Other 6% Market conditions 23% Demand 32% 7

8 Market Characteristics Comparisons to One Year Ago Demand 13% 1% Much higher Somewhat higher Liquidity 19% 2% Much more liquid Somewhat more liquid 52% About the same 46% 4% About the same liquidity Much lower 0% Cap Rates 35% Somewhat lower Much lower 29% Underwriting Standards Somewhat less liquid Much less liquid 57% 24% 3% 2% Much higher (>50 bps) Somewhat higher (25 to 50 bps) About the same (-25 to 25 bps) 56% 24% 2% Much tighter Somewhat tighter About the same Somewhat looser 15% Somewhat lower (-25 to -25 bps) Much lower (<-50 bps) Much tighter 0% 8 18% Much looser

9 Biggest Challenges in CRE Lending Mark all that Apply Single-Most Important Challenge Regulatory burden and requirements Lack of borrower demand 21 6 Competition from bank lenders Competition from non-bank lenders 55 6 Fewer credit-worthy projects 34 8 Lack of qualified borrowers 26 5 Appraisal challenges 29 4 Other 3 2 9

10 Biggest Competitor Regional banks 49% Community banks 34% Other 0% CMBS market 0% Government agency 0% Large banks 13% Insurance company 1% Nonbank lenders 1% Credit unions 1% 10

11 Average Breakdown of CRE Portfolio by Sector Industrial 12% Hospitality 8% Retail 16% Office 18% Healthcare 7% Multifamily 28% Other 12% Includes: Storage Land Religious Mixed Use Residential Construction 11

12 Loan-to-Value Ratios for Originated CRE Loans 8% 1% 4% 6% Loan-to-value ratio 40% or less Loan-to-value between 40% and 50% 45% 12% Loan-to-value between 50% and 60% Loan-to-value between 60% and 70% Loan-to-value between 70% and 80% Loan-to-value between 80% and 90% Loan-to-value greater than 90% 25% 12

13 CRE Loans Originated Types of Loans Originated Commercial Portfolio Breakdown Commercial construction % CRE non-owner occupied % CRE owner occupied % Small business CRE lending 98 8% SBA CRE 74 4% Other 11 5% 13

14 Underwriting Covenants Maximum Maturity Amortization Periods 11% 37% 9% 28% 16% 5 years 7 years 10 years 15 years Other 60% 17% 21% 2% 15 years 20 years 25 years Other Interest Rates as Compared to One Year Ago Much higher Target Return on Equity 15% Much higher 0% Much lower 0% 45% 21% 34% Somewhat higher Unchanged Somewhat lower Much lower 6% 33% 46% 15% 20% 25% Other 14

15 Interest-Only Loans Does your bank originate interest-only loans? No 40% Yes 60% Most banks reported interest-only loans make up 5 to 25 percent of the 2015 portfolio, with some reporting as high as 44, and even, 80 percent. 15

16 Selling Loans and Participations to Other Financial Institutions Did Your Bank Sell Loan Participations? Did Your Bank Sell CRE Loans? No 27% No 54% Yes 46% Yes 73% 16

17 Loans and Participations Sold to Other Financial Institutions Banks of similar size 49 Smaller banks 27 Larger banks 24 Nonbanks 2 Credit unions 1 Other 2 17

18 High-Volatility Commercial Real Estate (HVCRE) Does you bank currently have loans outstanding that are classified as HVCRE? No 50% Yes 50% Most banks reported outstanding HVCRE classified loans make up less than 10% of the 2015 portfolio. However, a couple banks reported up to 33% of their portfolio as HVCRE. 18

19 HVCRE Continued If HVCRE outstanding, were any loans originated after January 1, 2015 (when the rule went into effect)? If HVCRE outstanding, did your bank increase pricing to reflect the additional capital cost of the HVCRE classification? Has your bank quoted any CRE loan terms that were structured to avoid the classification but were then lost to a competitor who didn t have the same requirements or were declined by the borrower? No 29% Yes 71% No 63% Yes 37% No 45% Yes 55% Most reported that proper rule interpretation and remaining competitive given the additional cost are the biggest challenges associated with the HVCRE classification. 19

20 Statement on Prudent Risk Management for CRE Lending What do you expect will be the impact on the CRE industry regarding the recently released Statement on Prudent Risk Management for CRE Lending by the federal regulating agencies in 2016? 4% 25% There will be a measurable reduction in credit availability across all CRE lending sectors 31% There will be a measurable reduction in credit availability across only certain sectors of CRE lending There will be no measurable impact on CRE lending sectors Other 40% 20

21 CRE Outlook for 2016 Primary Concerns Regarding the Commercial Real Estate Market Regulatory Burden Low Cap Rates Increasing Interest Rates Competition Economic Environment & Market Conditions 21