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1 Stock Market Outlook May 24,

2 Phil among top stock performers ytd Philippines is the 8 th best performing market ytd around the world, up 27% in USD terms.

3 Leaders ytd Rank Stock % gain Sector 1 Trans Asia % Power & energy 2 Alliance Global +62.3% Holding Firm 3 URC +53.8% Consumer 4 Petron +53.0% Power & energy 5 EEI +52.5% 5% Construction 6 MERALCO +51.2% Power & energy 7 Megaworld +46.9% Property 8 Globe Telecom +46.4% Telecommunications 9 Filinvest Land +46.3% Property 10 SMDC +45.2%

4 Laggards ytd Rank Stock % gain Sector 1 Pepsi Cola 5.8% Consumer 2 Philex Mining 5.2% Mining 3 EDC 5.0% 50% Power & energy 4 Bloomberry 4.3% Gaming 5 Aboitiz Power +0.4% Power & energy 6 Atlas Mining +2.6% Mining 7 First Gen +7.2% Power & energy 8 DMCI Holdings +7.4% Holding Firm 9 Aboitiz Equity +7.6% 10 BPI +10.9% Banking

5 Market outlook: Valuation Performance and Valuation of Selected Markets (Source: Bloomberg, RSEC) ytd % change (US$ terms) 2013 PE (x) Median PE (since 2001) Phil s 2013 PE is already eadyabove PSEi +27% 19.6* 14.8 its historical New York (DJIA) +17% median. Paris (CAC 40) +9% However, the Frankfurt (DAX 30) +9% market is not London (FTSE 100) +7% yet at its peak Tokyo (Nikkei 225) +27% 22, of 25x PE set in Hong Kong (Hang Seng) +2% Jakarta (JCI) +19% Thailand SET +21% *RSEC estimates. Other indexes based on Bloomberg data.

6 Market outlook: Valuation Market trades at 19.6x 2013 earnings, already above the historical median (14.8x). However, since the historical median is an average measure, it means that the market has traded above this level half of the time in the past and, therefore, can still trade above this level going forward. Market started to trade above average only since early Technically, the market is trending up and we advise di to ride this trend until technical analysis confirms a reversal of the trend. Up to what level? Historically, the market has traded at a historical high PE of 25x in 2003 and could move back towards this high before reversing. Based on our target prices for the PSEi stocks, we expect the PSEi to hit 7,800 this year. 6

7 Market outlook: Valuation High PE of 35x in 2001, although market only touched it briefly 25x Pe is more significant high since mkt stayed here for almost a year Historical Philippine market PEs Market started to trade above 15x 7

8 Market outlook: Factors Continued market run up may be justified by: Economic indicators have been improving across the board GDP, unemployment of 6.8% below historical average of 9.1% since 1994, budget deficit, FX reserves Fitch and S&P have upgraded ddh the Phl to investment grade this year, Moody s expected to follow; Financial market liquidity; Further growth in most corporate earnings 16% eps growth, from 18% in 2012, with high likelihood of an upgrade. 8

9 Market outlook: Economy Most economic indicators in 2012 better than forecast indicators expected to be generally better. 2011A 2012A 2012F 2012 actual vs target 2013F Real GDP growth (%) High end of the target Inflation (%) (full year) Low end of target BSP overnight On track 3.25 borrowing 1 BSP overnight lending On track 5.25 Average Peso dollar Stronger than forecast rate 1 Budget Surplus (198) (235.3) (279.0) Better than target (241.0) (Deficit), Phpbn 2 Budget surplus (2.0) (2.2) (2.6) Better than target (2.0) (Deficit)/GDP (%) 2 1 RCBC Securities estimate 2 Source: Official government forecasts. 9

10 Market outlook: Economy Most economic indicators in 2012 better than forecast indicators expected to be generally better. 2011A 2012A 2012F 2012 actual vs target 2013F OFW remittances, $bn Better than target 22.8 Exports, $bn Below target 57.0 BOP Surplus (Deficit), $bn Better than target 3.0 Gross International Better than target 86.0 Reserves, $bn 1 1 RCBC Securities estimate 2 Source: Official government forecasts. 10

11 Market outlook: Economy GDP growing above its historical average of 5%. Low 2012 inflation of3.1% 1%gives the BSP elbow room to cut interest rates further to fight any lingering global economic weakness. Low budget deficit gives government room to pursue fiscal expansion measures. Record high GIR of $84bn as of end 2012 provides ammunition to ward off currency attacks. 11

12 Market outlook: Factors GDP growth has been accelerating Average GDP growth 3.6% 4.6% 5.0% 5.25% Annual real GDP growth, (%)

13 Market outlook: Factors 350, , , , , ,000 50, ,023 38% 3.8% 210,741 National Budget Deficit (Phpmn) 5.0% 199, % 187, % 146, % 1.0% 0.9% 0.2% 12,441 64,791 68, , ,458 37% 3.7% 6% 3.5% 5% 235,300 4% 197, % 2.2% % 2% 1% 0% Budget Deficit % to GDP 13

14 Market outlook: Factors Gross International Reserves ( ) CAGR of 16.5% n bn $ I

15 Market outlook: Economy Phl upgraded to investment grade for 1 st time in history Fitch and S&P raised the country s sovereign credit rating to investment grade early this year. Upgrades cited country s low fiscal deficit and strong foreign exchange reserves position. 15

16 Market outlook: Liquidity idi will encourage risk seeking ik ki SDAs amounted to Php1.86 trillion or $46bn as of February This is 20% of the stock market s capitalization. The gross rate on SDAs has been cut to 2%, making stock investing more enticing. BSP said this could be brought down to as low as 1%. BSP is also restricting investment in SDAs by foreigners and banks, excluding UITFs of their trust departments. Low yields on fixed income investments would also increase the incentive for investors to seek higher return higher risk investment vehicles. 16

17 Market outlook: Liquidity will encourage risk seeking Local participation in the stock market has improved since the low in % 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 0% 10.0% 39.4% Local Participation in the PSE % 62.2% 49.1% 51.2% 61.9% 51.3% 55.1% 45.0% 45.3% 0.0%

18 Market outlook: Liquidity will encourage risk seeking Trust assets have grown at a CAGR of 18% since Trust Assets ( , 2012, Phpbn) Php3,500 Php3,000 Php2,500 Php2,000 Php1,500 Php1,000 Php813 Php707 Php597 Php893 Php872 Php1,177 Php1,234 Php1,790 Php2,217 Php2,800 Php3,200 Php500 Php

19 Market outlook: forecasted 2013 eps growth at 16% This year, we forecast aggregate growth in earnings per share of 16%, slightly below last year s 18%, but chances of earnings upgrades are high. h 1Q core aggregate earnings of companies we follow up 23%. 19

20 Risk factors Market s uptrend may be derailed by: Strong peso, which could harm BPO industry. However, the central bank can moderate the peso s appreciation. Weakness in Euro zone and the US. US recovery, which could bring back funds into the US stock market. In general, any disappointment vs expectations could trigger sell off. 20

21 Market Outlook: Conclusion Even though the market is already trading above its historical average, it may still trek up towards its historic high of 25x. Considering our target prices for the companies that we cover, we expect an upside of 7.5% by year end to a PSEi level of At this level, market PE would be at 21x 2013 earnings. That said, a number of stocks have a higher h upside. Stock valuation, target prices & expected return 21

22 Market Outlook: Conclusion We will be watchful of signs of a market reversal and will recommendanexit exit accordingly. 22

23 Basics of stock investing Basics of stock investing 23

24 Philippine Stock Exchange The first stock exchange in Southeast Asia, opening in listed companies with a market capitalization of roughly $250bn. The PSE serves as the secondary market for equity, quasiequity and equity linked securities in the Philippines. 24

25 Philippine Stock Exchange A secondary market is where outstanding equity securities are traded among existing holders. Differs from the primary market which refers to the sale of new securities, i.e., IPOs, follow on on offers & private placements. 25

26 Philippine Stock Exchange It provides liquidity for securities sold in the primary market and determines prevailing market prices of listed companies. 26

27 Philippine Stock Exchange Financial instruments available at the Philippine Stock Exchange: Common stocks Preferred stocks Warrants Philippine Depositary Receipts (PDRs) Soon: Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) 27

28 Philippine Stock Exchange The market s performance is usually represented by the Philippine Stock Exchange Index or the PSEi. For example, if as of Dec. 28, 2012, the PSEi was 5, and as of May 20, 2013, it was 7,275.38, then it may be said that the Phil. stock market was up 25% over the period Dec. 28, 2012 May 20,

29 Philippine Stock Exchange The PSEi over time may also be plotted on a graph to have a visual of market performance. Market trended up since beginning of 2013 and has formed an even steeper uptrend since late March. 29

30 Philippine Stock Exchange , , The weekly PSEi fell 57% from Oct 2007 to Oct 2008 and has since risen 332% as of May 20,

31 Philippine Stock Exchange index components May 21, 2013 Stock Free float market cap (Pmn) % Weight in the Index Ayala Corp. 152, Aboitiz Equity Ventures 135, Alliance Global 107, Ayala Land 243, Aboitiz Power 53, BDO Unibank 146, Belle Corp. 29, Bloomberry Resorts 39, Bank of the Philippine Islands 176, DMCI Holdings 43,

32 Philippine Stock Exchange index components May 21, 2013 Stock Free float market cap (Pmn) % Weight in the Index Energy Development Corp First Gen Corp. 25, Globe Telecommunications 45, International ti lcontainer Terminal 92, Jollibee Foods 57, JG Summit Holdings 103, Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. 141, Megaworld Corp. 39, Manila Electric Company 56, Metro Pacific Investments 65,

33 Philippine Stock Exchange index components May 21, 2013 Stock Free float market cap (Pmn) % Weight in the Index Manila Water 53, Petron Corp Philex Mining 21, Robinsons Land 38, Semirara Mining 27, SM Investments 290, San Miguel Corp. 40, SM Prime Holdings 105, Phil. Long Distance Telephone 341, Universal Robina Corp. 108,

34 Other Philippine Stock Exchange Indexes All shares Financials Industrial index Holding Firms Services Property Mining & Oil 34

35 PSE traded securities Common Stock Entitles the holder to ownership in the company. For practical purposes, this means that the holder has voting rights in the company and enjoys a proportionate share in the profits through the receipt of dividend payments and a residual claim when the company liquidates. Residual claim refers to the recipt of whatever is left of the company s assets after all other stakeholders (creditors, preferred shareholders, h employees, suppliers, government) have been paid upon the company s liquidation. 35

36 PSE traded securities Preferred stock Holders of preferred stock have preference over holders of common stocks in terms of dividends and claim upon liquidation. Holders of preferred stocks are entitled to receive dividends, to the extent agreed upon, before any dividends are paid to the holders of common stocks. However, preferred stocks usually have a specified limited rate of return or dividend and liquidation is only based on the par value. 36

37 PSE traded securities Warrants A corporation can also raise additional capital by issuing warrants. A warrant, normally issued on a detachable basis, allows its holders the right, but not the obligation, to buy new shares of the company at a set price during a specified period of time. It is usually provided free of charge and traded separately in the securities ii market. 37

38 PSE traded securities Philippine Depositary Receipt Issued by a company facing foreign ownership restriction, such as a media company, in order to allow foreigners to invest tin the company. A PDR is an evidence of ownership of a foreign/foreign based entity in a Philippine corporation. It is a security which grants the holder the right to the delivery or sale of the underlying share, and to other rights associated with commonstock ownership. 38

39 PSE traded securities Exchange Traded Fund A closed end fund that is invested in a basket of securities to mimic an index and traded in the stock market. In the Philippines, i for example, it may track kthe PSEi. Since it is traded, its price will reflect supply and demand for the security and not the underlying net asset value of the fund. 39

40 Types of Orders Trading hours are from 9:30 am to 3:30pm with a break from 12:30 1:30pm. These are the types of orders that investors may place in the market: kt Market order Limit orders Day order Good til cancelled order Short sale Stop loss orders 40

41 Market order Types of Orders an order to buy or sell a stock at the best current price. For a buyer, this would be the prevailing ask price, while for a seller, this would be the prevailing bid price. Ensures that the order will be done. The prevailing ask price is the lowest asking price of sellers, while the prevailing bid price is highest price at which buyers are willing to buy. A transaction ti occurs when the lowest ask matches th the highest bid. 41

42 Types of Orders A transaction occurs when bid and ask prices match. 42

43 Types of orders How stock prices are reported: Open first transacted price of stock or first computed index for the day High highest transacted stock price or highest computed index for the day Low lowest transacted stock price or lowest computed index for the day Close last transacted stock price of index at end of trading. 43

44 Types of Orders Limit order an order which specifies the buy or sell price. Order may not get done if market price doesn t hit the buyer s bid price of the seller s ask price. 44

45 Types of Orders Day order an order which expires if not done within the day it is given. 45

46 Types of Orders Good til cancelled order an order which remains in effect until executed or canceled. 46

47 Types of Orders Short sale selling a stock without the shares you expect to be able to buy the shares later at a lower price you expect the stock s price to go down Not yet allowed in the PSE 47

48 Types of Orders Stop loss order investor directs broker to sell his stock if price drops to a specified level 48

49 Stock Market Investing Investing Procedures 1. Choose a stockbroker, also called a trading participant, from the PSE s list of accredited brokers on the PSE website. 2. Open an account. Fill out a Customer Account Information Form. Submit ID papers for verification Stockbroker will assign a trader to assist in the buying/selling activity 3. Give the order to broker and ask for immediate confirmation by phone, or when order gets done. 49

50 Stock kmarket Investing 4. For traditional clients, pay within three working days from the transaction date T For online clients, pay on transaction date. 6. Receive from broker Ifselling selling, proceeds ofstock sale after 3 days If buying, confirmation receipt and invoice. If physical certificate is preferred, may request from broker and pay the required upliftment fee of Php50 per certificate and transfer fee of Php % VAT. 50

51 Stock Market Investing Board Lots The amount of shares that can be bought and/or sold is subject to minimum and incremental board lots or round lots. The Board Lot Table determines the minimum number of shares that can be purchased or sold at a specific price range. The minimum amount needed to invest in the stock market will depend on the market price of the specific security as well as its corresponding board lot. Prices of stocks move through a scale of minimum price fluctuations called ticks. 51

52 Stock Market Investing Board Lot Table Market price (Php) Tick size Lot size to ,000,000, 0.01 to , to , to , to , to to to

53 Stock kmarket Investing Board Lot Table Market price (Php) Tick size Lot size to to to to to to and up

54 Stock Market Investing Cost to buy a share of stock at a price of P10.00: Price per share Number of shares to be bought x 1,000 10, Broker s commission (0.25% + 12% VAT) PSE Transaction Fee (Transaction value x 0.005%) SCCP Fee (Transaction value x 0.01%) Total Cash Outlay 10,

55 Stock Market tinvesting Net proceeds to sell a stock at a price of P10.00: Price per share Number of shares to be sold x 1,000 10, Broker s commission (0.25% + 12% VAT) Stock transaction tax (Transaction value x 0.5%) PSE Transaction Fee (Transaction value x 0.005%) 005%) SCCP Fee (Transaction value x 0.01%) 1.00 Net Cash Receivable 9,

56 Stock Market tinvesting Therefore, at minimum 0.25% commission, total two way cost is 1.10%. 10% 56

57 Stock Market Investing Two way cost at different commission rates: If broker s commission is Additional cost from two way trade 0.25% 1.10% 0.50% 1.65% 0.75% 2.21% 1.00% 2.77% 57

58 Returns from stock investing Capital Gains increase in the market price of a stock from the buying price. Cash Dividend A dividend given to shareholders in the form of cash. It is computed by multiplying the number of shares hldb held by the cash dividendid d rate declared. d Stock Dividend A dividend given to shareholders in the form of additional stocks. It is computed by multiplying the number of shares held by the percentage of the stock dividend declared. 58

59 Returns from stock investing Property Dividend dividend given in the form of shares of an investee company. The shares may then be sold in the exchange at zero purchase cost to the seller. Stock Rights a stock rights offer is the option given to the present shareholders to buy additional shares of stock at a price lower than its market price. 59

60 Top dividend paying stocks Common shares Price Forecasted 2013 May 22, 2013 Net dividend yield (%) PLDT 3, % Globe Telecom 1, % Aboitiz Power % 3.8% Semirara % Preferred shares Petron % Fgen % Pure Foods 1, % SMC 2A % 60

61 Approaches to stock investing Warren Buffett Don t follow the day to day fluctuations of the market. Don t predict the economy. Buy a company that you understand, is profitable and have favorable long term prospects. Buy a company at a discount of at least 25% to its intrinsic value. Invest in a portfolio of businesses. 61

62 Approaches to stock investing Peter Lynch Ignore short term stock market fluctuations. Don t try to predict the economy. Buy a company that is undervalued regardless of the market. Take advantage of what you already know to help you pick companies. 62

63 Approaches to stock investing Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders by Jack Schwager Use trading methods that suit your personality Cut your losses and let your profits run. Don't underestimate the time it takes to succeed as a trader. Learn from your past trades. Have a trading plan before buying your 1 st stock. Know when to do nothing. Don t listen to other opinions. Make your own trading decisions 63

64 Approaches to stock investing Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders by Jack Schwager Don't take on excessive leverage. Wall Street research reports will tend to be biased Exercise emotional discipline. Stick to your trading plan. 64

65 Analyzing companies/stocks Fundamental analysis determining value of company/stock by looking at financial & operating history and prospects and using valuation ratios. Technical analysis dt determining ii direction of price of an asset by looking at historical prices plotted on a graph and looking for patterns and by using calculated indicators. 65

66 Analyzing companies/stocks Analysis of stocks may be sourced from brokers which have research teams of analysts, either fundamental or technical or both. You may do your own analysis by sourcing company information from company websites, the PSE website and companies investor relations office. Equally important, make use of what you know and who you know. 66

67 About RCBC Securities 67

68 RCBC Securities Inc. (RSEC) Stock brokerage unit of Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC), Philippines 5th largest private commercial bank and a member of Yuchengco Group of Companies. Php460mn in capital, one of the highest in the industry. Long track record of operations established in August 1973 as Pacific Basin Securities, and changed its name to RCBC Securities Inc. in July 1995 Offers both traditional and online service and provides stock market and corporate research to its clients. 68

69 Account Types Traditional Online Order posting Trader via phone Via Settlement T+3 days Pre settlement Research Materials from RSEC, inputs from traders Materials from RSEC posted on website Minimum initial None Php 10, balance Commission rate 0.25% to 1.5% 0.25% 69

70 Account Opening Requirements (Traditional) Accomplished Customer Account InformationForm (CAIF) See appendix A Filled out signature cards See appendix B 2 valid government issued IDs See appendix C Personal appearance If client is unable to visit RSEC office, may request for certification from RCBC branch managers 70

71 Account Opening Requirements (Online) Accomplish online application form via com Print out, sign undertaking portion and submit originallysigned copies of form 2 valid government issued IDs Personal appearance If client is unable to visit ii RSEC office, may request for certification i from RCBC branch managers 71

72 For inquiries, you may contact: Sheila C. Chan Sales and Trading Department, RCBC Securities Inc. 7/F Yuchengco Tower, RCBC Plaza 6718 Ayala Avenue, Makati City 0727, Philippines (632) loc

73 Appendices 73

74 Appendix A: CAIF Soft copy available upon request 74

75 Appendix B: Signature Card Soft copy available upon request 75

76 Appendix C: List of Acceptable IDs Passport Driver s License PRC ID NBI Clearance Police Clearance Postal ID Voter s ID Brgy. Certification GSIS E Card SSS Card DSWD Certification Integrated Bar of the Philippines ID Senior Citizen Card Overseas Workers Welfare Administration ID OFW ID Seaman s Book Alien Certification of Registration/ Immigrant Certificate of Registration Government Office ID(e.g. AFP ID,HDMF ID) Certification from the National Council for the Welfare of Disabled Persons(NCWDP) Company Issued did for Pi Private Entities Student ID 76

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