ECON International Trade. Prof. Antoine Gervais

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1 ECON40710 International Trade Prof. Antoine Gervais

2 Plan for Today Chapter 1: Introduction Syllabus Chapter 2 Facts The Gravity Model Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-2

3 Chapter 1 Introduction

4 International Economics International trade studies the movement of goods and services across international borders International finance Studies the monetary interactions between countries Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-4

5 Objectives Learn main international trade theories (develop formal models) Use the theoretical models to learn about the impact of international trade Problem solving: using analytical methods, in an orderly manner, for finding solutions to problems. Critical thinking: the objective analysis and evaluation of an issue in order to form a judgment. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-5

6 Fundamental Questions 1. Patterns of Trade Why do countries trade with each other? Why do they trade certain product rather than other? 2. Welfare What is the impact of trade on the countries involved? How do trade policies affect welfare? 3. Redistribution Does international trade creates winners and losers? Who gains from trade? Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-6

7 Before we provide answers Syllabus Office hours Web site Activities Course outline Paul R. Krugman (1993), What Do Undergrads Need to Know About Trade?, American Economic Review, 83(2), Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-7

8 Chapter 2 World Trade: An Overview

9 A. How important is trade? In 2011 (in billion $US) World Export: $21,986 Merchandise: $17,816 Services: $4,170 World GDP: $69,110 The value of export is close to 1/3 of the world s GDP It does not mean that 1/3 of physical output is exchanged across national borders (see: Barbie and the world economy LA Times, 9/22/96) Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-9

10 Fig. 1-1: Exports and Imports as a Percentage of U.S. National Income Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-10

11 Fig. 1-1: Exports and Imports as a Percentage of U.S. National Income U.S. exports and imports as shares of gross domestic product have been on a long-term upward trend. International trade has roughly tripled in importance compared to the economy as a whole in the past 50 years. Both imports and exports fell in 2009 due to the recession. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-11

12 Fig. 1-2: Average of Exports and Imports as Percentage of National Income in 2011 Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-12

13 Fig. 1-2: Average of Exports and Imports as Percentage of National Income in 2011 Compared to the United States, other countries are even more tied to international trade. Their imports and exports as a share of GDP are substantially higher. The United States, due to its size and diversity of resources, relies less on international trade than almost any other country. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-13

14 B. Which Countries Trade? >1000 US$ billion Source: International Trade Statistics 2011, WTO Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-14

15 B. Which Countries Trade? Source: Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-15

16 B. Which Countries Trade? IMPORTS US$ BILLION United States 1900 China France Japan Germany Netherlands EXPORTS US$ BILLION Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-16

17 B. Which Countries Trade? The top 10 countries account for about 51% of world trade 1 China United States United States China Germany Germany Japan Japan Netherlands France France United Kingdom Korea, Republic of Netherlands Italy Italy Russian Federation Korea, Republic of Belgium Hong Kong, China retained imports United Kingdom Canada a Hong Kong, China India domestic exports re-exports Canada Belgium Singapore Spain domestic exports re-exports Singapore Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of retained imports Source: International Trade Statistics 2011, WTO Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-17

18 Trading Partners Merchandise exports by region and destination 2011 (US$ billion) Europe Commonwealth of Independent States North America Asia Middle East Central & South America & the Caribbean Africa Source: International Trade Statistics 2011, WTO Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-18

19 C. The Gravity Model 3 of the top 10 trading partners with the U.S. in 2012 were also the 3 largest European economies: Germany, the United Kingdom, and France. Why does the United States trade more with these European countries than with others? Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-19

20 C. The Gravity Model The gravity model assumes that size and distance are important for trade in the following way: T ij = (A x Y i x Y j ) / D ij T ij is the value of trade between country i and country j A is a constant Y i the GDP of country I, Y j is the GDP of country j D ij is the distance between country i and country j Or more generally T ij = ( A x Y i a x Y j b ) / D ij c where a, b, and c are allowed to differ from 1. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-20

21 Fig. 2-2: The Size of European Economies, and the Value of Their Trade with the United States Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-21

22 C. The Gravity Model The size of an economy is directly related to the volume of imports and exports. Larger economies produce more goods and services, so they have more to sell in the export market. Larger economies generate more income from the goods and services sold, so they are able to buy more imports. Trade between any two countries is larger, the larger is either country. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-22

23 Fig. 2-3: Distance and Trade with the United States Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-23

24 C. The Gravity Model The distance between countries is directly related to the volume of trade between them. Estimates of the effect of distance from the gravity model predict that a 1% increase in the distance between countries is associated with a decrease in the volume of trade of about 1%. Trade between any two countries is larger, when the countries are close. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-24

25 Impediments to Trade Besides distance, political borders increase the cost and time needed to trade. Data shows that there is much more trade between pairs of Canadian provinces than between Canadian provinces and U.S. states, even when holding distance constant. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-25

26 Fig. 2-4: Canadian Provinces and U.S. States that Trade with British Columbia Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-26

27 Table 2-1: Trade with British Columbia, as Percent of GDP, 2009 Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-27

28 Impediments to Trade 1. Natural Distance between markets influences transportation costs and therefore the cost of imports and exports. Geography: ocean harbors and a lack of mountain barriers make transportation and trade easier. 2. Political and Cultural close cultural ties, such as a common language, usually lead to strong economic ties. crossing borders involves formalities that take time, often different currencies need to be exchanged, and perhaps monetary costs like tariffs reduce trade. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-28

29 D. Has the World Gotten Smaller? The negative effect of distance on trade according to the gravity models is significant, but has grown smaller over time due to modern transportation and communication. Technologies that have increased trade: Wheels, sails, compasses, railroads, telegraph, steam power, automobiles, telephones, airplanes, computers, fax machines, Internet, fiber optics, personal digital assistants, GPS satellites Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-29

30 D. Has the World Gotten Smaller? Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-30

31 D. Has the World Gotten Smaller? Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-31

32 D. Has the World Gotten Smaller? Political factors, such as wars, can change trade patterns much more than innovations in transportation and communication. World trade grew rapidly from 1870 to Then it suffered a sharp decline due to the two world wars and the Great Depression. It started to recover around 1945 but did not recover fully until around Since 1970, trade as a fraction of GDP has achieved unprecedented heights in many countries. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-32

33 E. The Composition of Trade Fig. 2-6: World Trade, 2011 Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-33

34 Fig. 2-6: The Composition of World Trade, 2011 What kinds of products do nations trade now, and how does this composition compare to trade in the past? Today, most (about 53%) of the volume of trade is in manufactured products such as automobiles, computers, and clothing. Services such as shipping, insurance, legal fees, and spending by tourists account for about 20% of the volume of trade. Mineral products (ex., petroleum, coal, copper) remain an important part of world trade at 19% Agricultural products are a relatively small (8%) part of trade. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-34

35 Fig. 2-7: The Changing Composition of Developing-Country Exports Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-35

36 Fig. 2-7: The Changing Composition of Developing-Country Exports Low- and middle-income countries have also changed the composition of their trade. In 2001, about 65% of exports from low- and middleincome countries were manufactured products, and only 10% of exports were agricultural products. In 1960, about 58% of exports from low- and middleincome countries were agricultural products and only 12% of exports were manufactured products. More than 90 percent of the exports of China, the largest developing country and a rapidly growing force in world trade, consist of manufactured goods. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-36

37 F. Gains from Trade That there are gains from trade is probably the most important insight in international economics. Countries selling goods and services to each other almost always generates mutual benefits. When a buyer and a seller engage in a voluntary transaction, both can be made better off. e.g., Consumers in Alaska import oranges that they would have a hard time producing. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-37

38 F. Gains from Trade Classic Theories: Trade benefits countries by allowing them to specialize in production. They export goods they can produce at (relatively) low cost while consuming many goods and services through trade New Trade Theories: When countries specialize, they may be more efficient due to larger-scale production. An increase in capacity utilization will decrease average cost. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-38

39 F. Gains from Trade Trade is predicted to benefit countries as a whole in several ways, but trade may harm particular groups within a country. International trade can harm the owners of resources that are used relatively intensively in industries that compete with imports. (e.g. blue collar workers in the U.S.) Trade may therefore affect the distribution of income within a country. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-39

40 G. Effects of Government Policies on Trade Policy makers affect the amount of trade through tariffs: a tax on imports or exports quotas: a quantity restriction on imports or exports export subsidies: a payment to producers that export What are the costs and benefits of these policies? If a government restricts trade, what are the costs if foreign governments respond likewise? Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-40

41 Summary 1. World trade account for a large fraction of world GDP and increases over time 2. A few countries account for the bulk of trade 3. Distance matters: most trade is within region 4. Countries vary in their openness 5. Trade is mostly manufactured goods Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-41

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