THE WEEK WENT BY. Nifty: % Sensex: % NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR COMING WEEK: Sunday, July 10, 2016

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1 Sunday, July 10, 2016 THE WEEK WENT BY Finally the party seemed to be getting over on the D Street after a stellar rally post the BREXIT event. The domestic markets remained extremely quiet during the week went by in the absence of any further triggers to move higher. As a result, the bellwether indices were stuck in a narrow range during this truncated week. Due to profit booking in many heavyweights the upside was limited for the index NIFTY spot. However, on the downside too we witnessed strong buying interest on every dip and that s the reason why the index ended the week with marginal change. Also, the index managed to regain the 8300 mark on closing basis. The sectoral indices portrayed a mixed picture wherein the PHARMA (+2.83%) took the lead and the IT (-1.37%) dragged the markets. However, the broader markets outperformed the indices significantly. The Indian Volatility index (VIX) ended 4% lower which indicates a stable trend. Foreign & Domestic flows (Cash): During the entire week FII s bought to the tune of almost 479 Cr in the cash segment. On the other hand, even the DII s turned out to be net sellers to the tune of more than 743cr. Key Triggers: Going ahead, the domestic market might react to the CPI, WPI and IIP numbers. Also, the result season is about to kick-off which might drive the sentiments. Nifty: % Sensex: % NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR COMING WEEK: In our past edition of NIVESH WEEKLY PULSE, we stated that the intraday and daily chart of NIFTY indicates exhaustion due to overbought conditions which can trigger some profit booking in the coming week. In such situation, 8200 might act as strong support for the markets. In line with that view, the index corrected but again found buying interest and everything was back to normal. w, since there is hardly any change in the chart structure, we maintain our broader view that the index is moving in Higher Top Higher Bottom cycle on the weekly chart which is a sign of strength. Also, the most important thing is, the index is poised to move higher in correspondence to the Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern shown in the weekly chart. The theoretical target for the pattern comes around 8900 which is almost 600 points in NIFTY from here on and the time duration for this to happen can be between 3 4 months. Thus, for the investors we have a view that till the time index is trading above 7900 mark every dip should be used as a buying opportunity in the markets for the upside level of On the other hand, short term traders can keep on switching their positions as and when required based on our weekly newsletters. For the coming few sessions, in case of any further correction the 8200 mark will act as a major support for the markets. On the upside, a move above 8360 might extend the ongoing rally towards KEY LEVELS Supp Zone 1: 8200 Res Zone 1: 8360 Supp Zone 2: 8140 Res Zone 2: 8450

2 News during the week: S&P 500 brushes record high after blowout jobs report. Tata Steel to not exit UK, may consider sale of specialty units. India's domestic air traffic demand rises 21% in May: IATA. Vedanta to invest $1 bn in Gamesberg mine project by Tata Motors global sales rise 21% to 92,551 units in June. L&T Infotech raises Rs 373 crore from anchor investors. Sobha seeks shareholders nod to raise upto Rs 500cr via NCDs PICK OF THE WEEK: RADICO CMP: TGT: 108/120 PW/SL: 89 BUY The share price has corrected from the high of 172 to the low of 76 levels. Price action since 21st April 2016 till date appears to be forming an inverted head and shoulder pattern. Readers should note that an inverted head and shoulder pattern is a reversal formation appears at the bottom. On a monthly chart delivery volume is showing incremental growth. Meanwhile momentum indicators are reversing from bullish support zone, indicating imminent trend change. Therefore Readers can buy around range with a sl placed below 89.4 for target of 112 levels. SECTORAL ANALYSIS (BSE) Outperformers Healthcare Realty Metal IPO Underperformers IT FMCG AUTO CONSDURA Post four months consolidation Healthcare index recorded breakout and closed at 200 SMA, indicating trend reversal. Realty index is heading towards long term downward sloping trend line, suggesting limited upside in the short term. On a weekly chart Metal index appears to have formed a shooting star candlestick pattern, indicating caution. IT index closed below its, indicating short term weakness. FDC CMP: TGT: 228 /242 PW/SL: 178 BUY The share price retraced 78.6% retracement level of its previous rally, which started from the low of 145 to the high of 274 levels. The movement of the FDC since mid-january 2016 till date has been occurring in symmetrical triangle pattern. Also, price has been sustaining well above cluster of moving averages, indicating bull trend, even momentum indicators are pointing upward. Key point to note is that, during this consolidation phase delivery volume was above 10 months average, suggesting accumulation in the stock.

3 F&O STOCKS: Outperformer JP Assoc SOUTHBANK PNB ALBK WORLD INDICES: DOW JONES (18146) Underperformers IB REAL ASHOK LEYL KPIT PAGE IND As discussed in the last edition of NIVESH Weekly PULSE JP Associates recorded strong up move. South Indian Bank appears to be forming rounding bottom formation. Similar to other global indices, even DOWJONES remained range bound during the week. However, the exceptional job data on Friday led the index to confirm a breakout on the higher side. w, since the index has succeeded crossing the mark on closing basis we expect further upside in the Us markets. In such scenario, might act as hurdle whereas will act as support in the coming sessions. SHANGHAI (2989) Last week PNB closed above 200 SMA for the first time since January ALBK continues to outperform the broader markets. Post short term pullback IB Real appears to have formed lower bottom formation. Ashok Leyland seems to be forming AB=CD pattern. PAGE IND. formed a bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern near the resistance zone, indicating weakness. Finally after a very long consolidation, we observed a range breakout in the SHANGHAI index above the 2950 mark. w, we maintain our previous stance that the index might rally towards 3100 mark. On the contrary, in case if the support of 2860 is broken then the index might again slide towards the lower range of 2780.

4 SECTOR S OI GAINERS & LOSERS: OI CONCENTRATION Hospital & Medical services & Pharma & banking & Financial recorded short covering rally. Liquidation was seen in Capital goods, Telecom, Textile & Power counters. Short build up recorded in IT stocks. Open Interest Gainers & losers Gainers OI (in mn) OI % HEXAWARE BAJAJAUTO IDFC PNB On the derivative front, highest Call activity was seen in 8400, 8500 CE & 8700 CE. On the PUT side highest activity was seen in PE. On the option front highest call base for the current series is at 8500 strike with Lakh shares. On the other hand highest PUT base is at 8200 strikes with Lakh shares. CHANGE IN OI Losers OI (in mn) OI % UCOBANK COALINDIA ASHOKLEY BHRTFORG IDFC & PNB witnessed Long Build up. Short build up was seen in HEXAWARE & Bajaj Auto Liquidation was recorded in ASHOK LEYL & Bharat Forge Short covering seen in UCO BANK & COAL India Last week, 8400,8600 & 8700 strike Call added lakh shares. Last week, 8200,8300 & 8400 PE added lakh shares. Last week, On the flipside unwinding was seen in 8000 strike CE to the tune of 1,3 Lakh shares. Last week, Whereas 8000 PE saw unwinding of 1.63 Lakh shares. The above mentioned data suggest that Nifty has strong support at 8200 on the flipside 8400 is likely to act as a resistance for the current series.

5 FII & DII FLOW: COMMODITIES: GOLD MCX FUTURE (31747) The FII s continues to be a buyer for the second consecutive week. Last week FII s bought 479 cr.; whereas DII s sold 743 cr. In the month of July 2016, FII s bought 292 cr. in the cash segment, while DII s have bought 164 Cr. FII DERIVATIVE STATISTIC: We expected the GOLD to surge higher after the outcome of BREXIT and in line with that view the yellow metal rallied even in this week. w for the coming weeks also, we continue to remain bullish on the GOLD and advise traders to use buy on dips strategy. The metal has a potential to test the mark but it might take some time. The bullish trend will turn weak below mark. CRUDE MCX FUTURE (3057) FII s continues to be a buyer for the consecutive second week. Overall they bought worth Rs Cr. last week Majorly they bought 1878 cr. in the Index Options. While they sold 241 cr. in INDEX Futures At the same time they sold 39 cr. in the Stock Futures. On the stock Option front FII s sold 33 cr. Finally, the crude collapsed and the impact of the triple top formation was witnessed during the week went by. The crude not only breached the support of 3200 but also almost met our stated target of w, at this point in time the crude fut is hovering near the 89 Day Ema which might provide some support. Thus a small bounce from current levels cannot be ruled out. However, on positional basis the crude oil is sell on rise.

6 EVENTS CALENDAR CONCLUSION: Time Cur. Event Forecast Previous Tuesday, July 12, :30 GBP Inflation Report Hearings 17:30 INR CPI (YoY) (Jun) 5.76% 17:30 INR Cumulative Industrial Production (May) 17:30 INR Industrial Production (YoY) (May) -0.80% 17:30 INR Manufacturing Output (MoM) (May) -3.10% Wednesday, July 13, :00 USD Crude Oil Inventories M Thursday, July 14, :00 INR WPI Food (YoY) (Jun) 7.88% 12:00 INR WPI Fuel (YoY) (Jun) -6.14% 12:00 INR WPI Inflation (YoY) (Jun) 0.79% 12:00 INR WPI Manufacturing Inflation (YoY) (Jun) 0.91% With last weeks subdued activity it is clear that benchmark index Nifty has taken breather around 8400 mark after such a fantastic V shape recovery post BREXIT event. Going forward, we expect Nifty to consolidate in a broader range of for next couple of sessions. Therefore we suggest readers to keep stock centric approach and stay cautious below 8200 levels.

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