PlanPlus Frequently Asked Questions

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1 PlanPlus Frequently Asked Questions The Retirement Income Calculator What is it and how do I Use it? The Impact of Life Annuities on Retirement Income Planning An Overview The ability to assess the value of a life annuity as a viable option for retirement planning funds is difficult because clients and advisors can measure the rates of return on stocks, mutual funds and bonds easier than they can the value of a life annuity with an uncertain mortality. The Retirement Income Calculator in PlanPlus Web Advisor utilizes historical returns and risk factors (standard deviations) of a series of investment indices, and a Monte Carlo algorithm to generate randomized returns. These are applied to a combination of portfolio investments and life annuities to calculate the likelihood of the client achieving a desired income and the average estate residuals resulting from different mixes of annuity and traditional investments. This analytical approach compares three different scenarios: 1. Investments in a balanced portfolio based on risk tolerance; 2. The purchase of a Life Annuity; 3. A combined approach where the amount of the portfolio that would normally be invested into Fixed Income investments is used to purchase an annuity and the remaining funds are invested in cash or equities exactly as they would have been in approach one. So for scenario 3 we are saying, think of the annuity like a coupon bond where once you purchase it you will receive a fixed return each month, forever. The maturity of this bond is such that it magically matures exactly when you die. The calculator looks at the trade off the investor will face between: Likelihood of maintaining a desired level of income; Estate residuals; Assumptions u Rates of return and standard deviations are based on historical indices for the country of residence of the client; u The portfolio volatility is calculated using a proper asset allocation methodology that accounts for reduced risk as a result of correlations between indices (diversification); u Male and female mortality tables are from the textbook Personal Financial Planning, Ho & Robinson, Captus Press. Annuities & Retirement Income Planning Page 1 of 7

2 Customer Details u The user can enter data directly or if they have selected an existing client Load the data for the client, spouse or both. u The system requires a current age, the amount of investment capital, the desired income, an inflation rate and the portfolio type or risk level. u For Canadian and US clients, the system returns an average income per $100,000 from the Cannex Annuity System based on gender, age, country (USA or Canada) and province or state. u For other jurisdictions, or if desired by the advisor, the Revenue/$100,000 Capital can be manually entered as well. Methodology u Using the portfolio return and standard deviations, the system generates a series of random returns for the years from the current age to 108 that correspond to the historical return and volatility. Each series of returns is a simulation. u For each year, the system calculates: The percentage the full annuity is of the indexed target income; The income on the portfolio, and if sufficient capital remains to pay the desired income. In the case of the portfolio the client either receives the desired income or $0 if the capital is depleted. Annuities & Retirement Income Planning Page 2 of 7

3 For the combined scenario, increase the capital by the same return as the Portfolio option, then take out enough to top up the income when added to the smaller annuity amount, so the client receives the target income or once capital is depleted just the annuity. u The system generates 1000 simulations and repeats the calculation for each simulation. The Annuity option will have exactly the same result for each of the 1000 iterations. For the portfolio, depending on the random returns one simulation may result in ruin in 10 years while another may end up never running out of money. u The system averages the results of the 1000 simulations for each year so we can see the average income at each age, and the average estate. u The system takes the likelihood of being alive at every given age from current age, to age 106, and calculates a weighted averaged calculation of income and a weighted average estate. This is the single rolled up number. Sample Case 1-65 year old male - $500,000 capital - $50,000 per annum desired income - Very conservative investor with 5.67% return - 2 % inflation The chart above is a portion of the report generated when you press Calculate. The likelihood of dieing in any year is from the mortality tables. As an example, a male age 65 has a 1.85% chance of dieing in the next 12 months. Target income is how much you want to spend, indexed. Annuities & Retirement Income Planning Page 3 of 7

4 The Portfolio Mix assumes a balanced portfolio and shows the number of simulations out of 1000 where funds existed to fund the desired income. This is the chance of getting all desired income versus ruin. The Annuity shows the percent of the target income that the annuity covers. In this case you are 100% assured that you will only have this percentage of your income. The Percentage Annuity is a combination so the annuity portion will ensure some income once investment funds are depleted. The amount in the fixed income portion that is used to purchase the annuity is determined by adding any fixed income classes together. The graph of income is a graphic presentation of the information in the chart. We can see for every age from 65 up, the % likely the funds for the desired income are available, or the % of the funds that are available in the case of the annuity. We can see the Annuity (yellow) starts off below our target, but after age 78 is more likely to meet a larger portion of our needs. Annuities & Retirement Income Planning Page 4 of 7

5 This graph shows the amount of capital that remains in an estate given that the client died at that particular age. The Annuity estate is determined by the guarantee period if any. The summary of the overall results is on the first page of the report: This portion of the report shows the allocation of each of the three scenarios, and does a mortality weighted calculation for the summary number at the bottom. In other words: Likelihood of Income = % Chance of being alive at 66 x % of income available at 66 + % Chance of being alive at 67 x % of income available at 67 + % Chance of being alive at 68 x % of income available at 68 + etc. It is the rolled up probability that you will be alive and that you will have money during your life. This portion of the report shows the potential sizes of estates based on the Age to display estate distributions you entered on the screen. Because this is a Monte Carlo, in some simulations you may have run out of money and others may have had great returns. In this example, the timeframe is after the guarantee period so 100% of the annuity simulations have $0 estate. Original means the estate is the same as the capital you started with. x2 reams your capital has doubled in value and so on. The summary report averages these whereas this shows the potential distributions. Each combination of income, capital, portfolio volatility and so on will change the overall outcome. Annuities & Retirement Income Planning Page 5 of 7

6 What if we Increase Capital (which is the same as dropping the annual income)? The Spending Rate (Income/ Capital) of 10% is very high for sustainable income. What happens if we look at more capital, or lower spending? In the graph (done in Excel) we have used the calculator to look at initial capital values running from $500,000 to $1,000,000. This scenario runs from a very Spending Rate of 10% (i.e. the client wants $1 of income each year for every dollar of capital they have), to a more reasonable 5%. Not surprisingly, as the amount of starting capital increases, the likelihood of achieving the desired income increases. The scenarios with the portfolio, or the combined annuity and portfolio, plateau near 100% as the capital increases. There is a corresponding increase in the estate. If we look at the estate at age 80 which is the age by which half the clients will survive, we can see that if the client has $1,000,000 starting capital, the estate at age 80 is effectively the same so the investment income was sufficient to fund the desired income. Annuities & Retirement Income Planning Page 6 of 7

7 Case 2 Female Client - 65 year old female - $500,000 to $1,000,000 of investment capital - $50,000 per annum desired income - Very conservative investor with 5.67% return - 2 % inflation Because of the increased longevity of the female, the likelihood of a woman outliving her capital with the portfolio is increased. For the female, the combined annuity and portfolio appears far more effective where we have more capital to work with. Summary Each given parameter can give a different result with the 1000 simulations. The calculator looks at a specific set of parameters for this client and tries to give the advisor an overview of how the annuity impacts likelihood of maintaining desired lifestyle and possible size of any estate residual. Annuities & Retirement Income Planning Page 7 of 7

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