Adaptive Management: Process. Adaptive Management Set-Up Phase Step 5: Monitoring Program. Roles of Monitoring in Adaptive Management

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1 Adaptive Management Set-Up Phase Step 5: Monitoring Program Adaptive Management: Process Select management action based on: () objectives (2) available actions (3) estimated state of system* (4) models * Selected action drives system to new state, identified via monitoring program * Compare estimated and predicted system state to assess credibility of models * Return to first step * Based on monitoring program Roles of Monitoring in Adaptive Management Determine system state for state-dependent decisions Determine system state to assess degree to which management objectives are achieved Determine system state for comparison with model-based predictions to learn about system dynamics (i.e., do science) Provide estimates of parameters for model development and updating State-dependent Decisions Use estimates of system state for statedependent management decisions Optimal decision = f(system state) Example: different harvest decisions depending on whether population size is too small, too large, or at desired level

2 State-dependent Decision Table Millions of Mallards Hunting Regulations <4 Restrictive 4-5 Restrictive 5-6 Moderate 6-7 Liberal 7-8 Liberal >8 Liberal Assess System Performance Monitoring of goal-related variables permits performance assessment Goals may be functions of the system state variable(s) Goals may include functions of other variables (e.g., accumulated harvest) estimated from the monitoring program Assessing Models of System Dynamics Estimates of state (and other) variables obtained from monitoring are compared against modelspecific predictions (science) Credibility is increased for models that predict well and decreased for models that predict poorly Changes in model credibility over time are a key aspect of learning in the adaptive management process Developing and Updating Models of System Dynamics Parameter estimates needed for developing and updating models (e.g., revised estimates of distribution of harvest rates resulting from different hunting regulations) 2

3 How to Monitor? Basic Sampling Issues Geographic variation Frequently counts/observations cannot be conducted over entire area of interest Proper inference requires a spatial sampling design that permits inference about entire area, based on a sample How to Monitor? Basic Sampling Issues Detectability: Counts represent some unknown fraction of animals in sampled area Proper inference requires information on detection probability Monitoring Program: Summary Monitoring data: multiple uses in the adaptive management process Monitoring program is developed with those specific uses in mind Monitoring program design is tailored to management uses, with attention to: - Geographic variation - Detectability 3

4 Monitoring and NEPA Monitoring for Adaptive Management Purposes Provides data to Evaluate progress towards achieving objectives Determine resource status in order to identify appropriate management actions Increase understanding of resource dynamics Help improve or refine models Monitoring and NEPA Needed for the same reasons as adaptive management Allows for an evaluation of impacts predicted and those actually occurring Provides a basis/justification for adjusting management actions Provides a public outreach opportunity Meets regulatory requirements of NEPA regarding monitoring requirements for mitigation (40 CFR 505.2)

5 Points of Emphasis in Technical Guide AM is science-based, objective-driven decision making AM integrates science and management AM is explicit about objectives, management options, assumptions, uncertainties AM requires stakeholder involvement and shared decision making Adaptive Resource Management Setup phase Establish the management framework Stakeholder involvement Objective(s) Potential management alternatives Predictive models Monitoring protocols and plans Iterative phase Sequential management decision making monitoring assessment Sequential Operation of AM decision t decision t+ monitoring assessment Decisions are guided by management objectives at each time Monitoring is used to track system responses to management New information from monitoring is combined with previously collected information and models to produce improved understanding Decisions are adjusted in the next time period based on that improved understanding