DEFENCE ECONOMIC TRENDS IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC 2011DIO Reference Aid 11 2

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1 DEFENCE INTELLIGENCE ORGANISATION DEFENCE ECONOMIC TRENDS IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC 2011DIO Reference Aid 11 2

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4 CONTENTS PREFACE...3 SOUTH EAST ASIA REGIONAL OVERVIEWONAL OVERVIEW...5 BRUNEI... 7 BURMA...9 CAMBODIA EAST TIMOR...13 INDONESIA...15 LAOS...17 MALAYSIA PHILIPPINES...21 SINGAPORE THAILAND VIETNAM SOUTH PACIFIC REGIONAL OVERVIEW...28 FIJI...31 NEW ZEALAND PAPUA NEW GUINEA TONGA NORTH ASIA REGIONAL OVERVIEW...38 CHINA JAPAN...43 NORTH KOREA...45 RUSSIA...47 SOUTH KOREA...48 TAIWAN...51 SOUTH ASIA REGIONAL OVERVIEW INDIA PAKISTAN OTHER COUNTRIES OVERVIEW...58 AUSTRALIA...58 CANADA...60 FRANCE UNTED KINGDOM...62 UNITED STATES...63 APPENDIX A: METHODOLOGY...64 APPENDIX B: NOTES ON SOURCES

5 PREFACE Intentionally Blank 2

6 Purpose The Defence Economic Trends analyses significant trends in defence funding in the Asia Pacific region. It draws together official defence budgets and national economic data to enable comparisons between countries and over time. Methodology Underpinning much of the analysis in this publication is a defence spending deflator that is used to convert nominal official defence budgets into constant 2011 terms. Although there are some limitations to undertaking expenditure comparisons, our estimates aim to give readers the best available guide to the overall trend for spending on regional armed forces in real terms. For an explanation of the model, and notes on comparing expenditure over time and between countries, please refer to Appendix A. GDP and defence budgets are provided both in nominal terms and in constant US dollar terms, to enable comparisons to be made over time and between countries. Abbreviations bn EIU GDP GEC IMF IISS m tr Billion Economist Intelligence Unit Gross domestic product Global Economic Crisis International Monetary Fund International Institute for Strategic Studies Million Trillion Online version This publication is available on line at the Department of Defence s website: Feedback We encourage readers to comment on this publication. Please with your comments, so we can improve next year s edition. If you have any questions in relation to Defence Economic Trends 2011 please contact us directly by phone or fax at: Defence Intelligence Organisation Telephone: Facsimile: PREFACE PREFACE 3

7 SOUTH EAST ASIA REGIONAL OVERVIEW Regional economy The major economies in South East Asia Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam have enjoyed economic growth as a result of the strong recovery in global trade and growing demand from China. In 2011, these countries have received greater capital inflows and continue to focus on rolling back fiscal stimulus measures implemented during the Global Economic Crisis (GEC) in an orderly fashion. Monetary policy continues to be tightened; however, the effects of higher interest rates remain a concern for exchange rates, which have already appreciated strongly since % Defence spending Defence spending across South East Asia has increased in real terms, in contrast with the cuts imposed in 2010 after the GEC negatively affected defence expenditure in the region. The increased defence spending was fuelled by strong economic recovery in 2011 and continued efforts by South East Asian governments to improve military capabilities through large acquisition programs GDP growth compared to average GDP growth average growth rate growth rate Australia Malaysia Indonesia Singapore Thailand Philippines Vietnam SEA Average Contribution to South East Asian defence spending in 2011 (2011 US$) Singapore 31% Thailand 18% Philippines 5% Indonesia 17% Malaysia 15% Vietnam 11% Other 4

8 SOUTH-EAST ASIA REGIONAL OVERVIEW 2011 US$bn South East Asian defence budgets Malaysia Indonesia Singapore Thailand Philippines Vietnam 9 Proportion of GDP spent on defence % 4 SOUTH EAST ASIA REGIONAL OVERVIEW Australia Malaysia Indonesia Singapore Thailand Philippines Vietnam SOUTH EAST ASIA REGIONAL OVERVIEWONAL OVERVIEW Proportion of government outlays spent on defence % Australia Malaysia Indonesia Singapore Thailand Philippines Vietnam 5

9 BRUNEI 6

10 Country Name Capital City BRUNEI Brunei Bandar Seri Begawan Brunei has averaged 1.5 per cent annual real economic growth over the last 10 years, according to the IMF. The economy grew by 3 per cent in 2011, continuing its economic recovery. Construction of a 500 hectare technology park began in April and is key to long term government plans to create jobs and shift the economy away from the energy sector. The economy is projected to grow by 2.6 per cent in 2012 and to average 2.9 per cent growth annually to Population Land Size 6000 sq km Currency Brunei Dollar Fiscal Year 1 April 31 March Market economy Industries Oil, natural gas and tourism Defence spending Brunei s 2011 defence budget is B$514m, US$400.2m in current terms, representing a 12.3 per cent real decrease on the 2010 defence budget. The Royal Brunei Navy took delivery of three new German built Lurssen Werft DARUSSALAM class vessels in The Air Force is considering replacing its fleet of Bell 212 and Bell 214ST helicopters with up to 10 medium multi role helicopters to support the country s land forces. BRUNEI Defence Budget 500 US$m (2011)

11 BURMA INTENTIONALLY BLANK 8

12 Country Name Capital City Population BURMA Burma (Myanmar) Naypyidaw 62.4 million Over the last 10 years, Burma has recorded real annual economic growth of just over 10 per cent, according to the IMF. The Burmese economy s growth increased from 5.3 per cent in 2010 to 5.5 per cent in Burma s economic outlook is mixed. Large projects in power, petroleum and infrastructure, funded by investors from China, South Korea and Thailand, have been approved and are forecast to support annual economic growth of 5.6 per cent over the next five years. However, other sectors in the domestic economy are expected to remain sluggish, restricted by a lack of investment. Land Size Currency Fiscal Year Industries sq km Kyat 1 April 31 March Less developed country Timber, gems, oil, natural gas and rice Defence spending Reliable data on Burma s defence spending is not available. Burma s military acquisitions focus is on capabilities to defend against external threats and to ensure internal security. Burma has received the first of 20 RSK MiG 29s fighter jets from Russia. The aircraft will be delivered in three configurations, comprising 10 MiG 29B, and six MiG 29SE single seat fighters and four MiG 29UB twin seat operational trainers. BURMA

13 CAMBODIA 10

14 Country Name Capital City Population Land Size Cambodia Phnom Penh 14.4 million sq km Currency Fiscal Year Industries Riel 1 January 31 December Less developed country with a market economy Gems, cement, forestry, rubber, food, tourism, textiles, apparel and footwear CAMBODIA Cambodia has been one of South East Asia s fastest growing economies, averaging nearly 8 per cent annual real growth over the last 10 years. The economy grew by about 6.5 per cent in 2011, according to the IMF. The garment sector remains exposed to the US economy its main export market. However, garment shipments to Europe have increased. Agriculture and tourism are expected to grow and support forecast economic growth of 6.5 per cent in Annual growth is forecast to average 6.6 per cent over the next five years Defence spending Cambodia s 2011 defence budget is 1.22tr Riel, US$301m in current terms, and representing a 2.5 per cent real increase on the 2010 defence budget. Cambodia is expected to purchase Chinese built Zhi 9 (Z 9) utility helicopters. Last year, China donated more than 250 jeeps, trucks and ambulances to Cambodia s army. CAMBODIA Defence Budget 250 US$m (2011)

15 EAST TIMOR 12

16 Country Name Capital City Population Land Size EAST TIMOR East Timor Dili 1.1 million sq km East Timor has averaged 6.5 per cent annual real economic growth since But economic growth rates have been highly variable, ranging from about 19 per cent real growth in times of rebuilding (2001) to an almost 6 per cent contraction during periods of unrest (2006). East Timor s economy is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 8.8 per cent from 2012 to Currency Fiscal Year Industries US dollar 1 January 31 December Less developed country with a market economy Oil, coffee, fishing, cottage industries, rice and subsistence farming Defence spending The 2011 defence budget is US$21.5m in current terms and represented an 11.7 per cent real decrease on the 2010 defence budget. Foreign forces provide training and equipment assistance to the East Timor Defence Force. East Timor s Force 2020 development plan includes the purchase of an undefined number of corvettes and frigates and, in 2011, the Secretary of State for Defence inspected a Portuguese offshore patrol vessel. EAST TIMOR Defence Budget US$m (2011)

17 INDONESIA 14

18 Country Name Capital City Population Land Size INDONESIA Indonesia Jakarta million sq km Over the last 10 years, the Indonesian economy has maintained robust average annual real growth of 5.2 per cent. In 2011, economic growth was 6.2 per cent, according to the IMF. Private consumption is expected to remain the major driver behind economic growth as unemployment falls and real wages rise. Economic growth is forecast to be 6.5 per cent in 2012 and to average 6.8 per cent annually to Currency Fiscal Year Industries Rupiah 1 January 31 December Less developed country with a market economy Petroleum, natural gas, mining, cement, chemical fertilisers, plywood, rubber, tourism, textiles and apparel Defence spending Indonesia s 2011 defence budget is IDR45.2 tr, US$5.1bn in current terms, and represented a 3.7 per cent real increase on the 2010 defence budget. In 2011, the Navy took delivery of its fourth landing platform docks (LPDs), first KCR 40 guided missile fast patrol boat and the Yakhont anti ship cruise missile. Indonesia is also acquiring 16 T 50 Golden Eagle advanced jet trainers and 16 Super Tucano ground attack aircraft. INDONESIA 5.5 Defence Budget 5.0 US$bn (2011)

19 LAOS 16

20 Country Name Capital City Population Land Size LAOS Laos Vientiane 6.6 million sq km Laos has enjoyed a decade of high economic growth recording an average annual growth rate of 7.1 per cent. In 2011, Laos enjoyed 7.5 per cent economic growth and 2012 is forecast to be 7.3 per cent according to the IMF. Plans are progressing for a new national irrigation network to boost agricultural production while mining revenue has increased due to high global commodity prices. Laos economy is forecast to grow by an average of 7.6 per cent annually over the next five years. Currency Fiscal Year Industries Kip 1 October 30 September Less developed country with a centrally planned economy Copper, tin, timber, hydroelectricity, tourism, apparel, rice and cement Defence spending Laos 2011 defence budget is estimated to be around 150bn Kip, about US$17.4m in current terms, representing a 7.5 per cent real increase on the 2010 defence budget. The Lao People s Army is equipped with Soviet era weapons, some of which are no longer serviceable. Laos lacks the means to independently acquire new equipment and its armed forces are limited to an internal security capability. The Lao People s Army has a force of troops and Lao youth are liable for 18 months of conscripted service. LAOS 30 Defence Budget 25 US$m (2011)

21 MALAYSIA 18

22 Country Name Capital City Population MALAYSIA Malaysia Kuala Lumpur 28.7 million Over the last 10 years, Malaysia has experienced modest average annual economic growth of 4.6 per cent. The Malaysian economy continues to expand with economic growth at 5.5 per cent for Private consumption and investment are expected to remain the primary driving forces of economic growth over the next five years. Economic growth is forecast to be 5.2 per cent in 2012 and to average 5.1 per cent annually to Land Size Currency Fiscal Year Industries sq km Ringgit 1 January 31 December Less developed country with a market economy Rubber, palm oil, electronics, tin, timber, agriculture and oil Defence spending Malaysia s 2011 defence budget was about MYR14.3bn, US$4.8bn in current terms, representing a 19.3 per cent real increase on the 2010 defence budget. The Royal Malaysian Air Force is acquiring 12 EC725 Cougar helicopters to replace its ageing Sikorsky S 61 Nuri helicopters. Deliveries are planned for The Army is replacing its Sibmas 6x6 AFVs and Condor 4x4 armoured personnel carriers with 257 8x8 wheeled armoured fighting vehicles. The Navy is planning to purchase six littoral combat ships to be built domestically. MALAYSIA 5.5 Defence Budget 5.0 US$bn (2011)

23 PHILIPPINES 20

24 Country Name Capital City Population Land Size PHILIPPINES Philippines Manila 95.8 million sq km Over the last 10 years, the Philippines averaged annual real economic growth of 4.8 per cent. Economic growth slowed to 5 per cent in 2011 after a major economic recovery in The Philippines economy will struggle in the face of a weaker global economy and a sharp rise in international oil prices. Slower economic growth in Japan and the disruptions to its manufacturing supply chains as the result of natural disasters may adversely affect the Philippine economy. But the economy is forecast to achieve nearly 5 per cent growth annually for the next five years. Currency Fiscal Year Industries Philippines Peso 1 January 31 December Less developed country with a market economy Textiles, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, wood products, electronics, petroleum refining and fishing Defence spending The Armed Forces of the Philippines 2011 budget is 104.5bn Peso, US$2.3 bn in current terms, representing a 58.8 per cent real increase on the 2009 defence budget. However, this major increase is largely due to the inclusion of pensions that were excluded in previous defence budgets. The Philippine Air Force received five used UH 1s in 2011 under a deal facilitated by the US Army. Another four are expected to follow in the second quarter of The Navy received its first HAMILTON class high endurance cutter in August PHILIPPINES 2.5 Defence Budget 2.0 US$bn (2011)

25 SINGAPORE 22

26 Country Name Population Land Size Singapore 5.3 million 1000 sq km Over the last 10 years, Singapore has averaged real annual economic growth of 5.7 per cent. The export dependent economy experienced reduced economic growth of 5.2 per cent in 2011 after dramatically growing by 14.5 per cent in Singapore s economy remains structurally unchanged and will remain exposed to fluctuations in global demand. Exports, investment and private consumption are expected to grow strongly over the next five years. The economy is expected to grow by 5.2 per cent in 2012 and by an average of 4.2 per cent annually out to Currency Fiscal Year Industries SINGAPORE Singapore Dollar 1 April 31 March Newly industrialised country with a market economy Electronics, financial services, petroleum refining, rubber, ship repair and biopharmaceuticals Defence spending Singapore s 2011 defence budget was S$12.1bn, US$9.4bn in current terms, representing a 3.3 per cent real increase on the 2010 defence budget. The Air Force is acquiring 12 Alenia Aermacchi M 346 advanced jet trainers for delivery from Singapore has commissioned its first motorised infantry battalion equipped with Terrex infantry carrier vehicles (ICV). A total of 135 Terrex 8x8 ICVs are due to be delivered by the end of SINGAPORE Defence Budget 9.0 US$bn (2011)

27 THAILAND 24

28 Country Name Capital City Population THAILAND Thailand Bangkok 64.3 million Over the last 10 years, Thailand s economy has grown at an annual average rate of 4.4 per cent. In 2011, economic growth was nearly 4 per cent according to the IMF slowing down from the 7.8 per cent growth in Thailand faces challenges to sustain economic growth in light of weaker global demand and natural disasters in Japan. Domestic political uncertainty continues to weigh on consumer and business confidence, but economic growth is unlikely to be directly affected. Economic growth is forecast to be 4.5 per cent for 2012 and to average 4.8 per cent annually to Land Size Currency Fiscal Year Industries sq km Baht 1 October 30 September Less developed country with a market economy Tourism, apparel, agriculture, cement, electronics, furniture, plastics and tin Defence spending Thailand s 2011 defence budget increased to 168.5bn Baht or US$5.6bn in current terms, and represented a 8.2 per cent real increase on the 2010 defence budget. The Royal Thai Air Force received its first batch of six Swedish JAS39C/D Gripen Fighters in February A second batch of six Gripens and a second Saab 340 Erieye AEW&C aircraft are to be delivered in The Thai Navy has acquired two MH 60S Seahawk naval helicopters to augment its fleet of six S 70B Seahawk helicopters. The Thai Army has received its first three of an order of sixteen 480B Enstrom helicopters with the remaining 13 expected to be delivered by mid THAILAND Defence Budget US$bn (2011)

29 VIETNAM 26

30 Country Name Capital City Population Land Size VIETNAM Over the last 10 years, Vietnam has had one of the fastest growing economies in Asia, averaging real annual economic growth of 7.3 per cent. In 2011, the Vietnamese economy expanded by 6.3 per cent, according to the IMF. Despite global economic growth slowing in 2011, demand for Vietnamese goods is expected to be sustained ramping up production in the manufacturing sector. The economy is forecast to grow by 6.8 per cent in 2012 and to achieve an annual average growth rate of 7.3 per cent to Vietnam Hanoi 89.3 million sq km Currency Fiscal Year Industries Defence Budget Dong 1 January 31 December Less developed country with a centrally planned economy Food processing, garments, shoes, mining, cement, fertiliser, glass, tyres, oil, coal, steel, paper, coffee and rice Defence spending Vietnam s 2011 defence budget is 55.1tr Dong, about US$2.7bn in current terms, representing an 8.5 per cent real increase on the 2010 defence budget. Vietnam has finalised orders with Russia to secure an additional 12 Su 30MK2V fighter aircraft to supplement its existing order for eight aircraft. Deliveries are expected during 2011 and Vietnam has also received two GEPARD class frigates from Russia. VIETNAM 5.0 US$bn (2011)

31 SOUTH PACIFIC REGIONAL OVERVIEW SOUTH PACIFIC REGIONAL OVERVIEW Regional economy The South Pacific has many small, narrowly based economies that are reliant on tourism, remittances and commodity exports, all of which are recovering slowly after being subdued during the GEC. These countries have limited prospects for diversifying their economies and remain vulnerable to commodity prices fluctuations. High oil and food prices contribute to rising domestic inflation. 9 8 Defence spending Economic growth is the key priority for most governments in the region. Defence spending remains a secondary priority. The regional average percentage of GDP spent on defence over the last 10 years is equivalent to about 1.1 per cent per year. For many countries, the armed forces gain operational experience by deploying as part of United Nations led missions or alongside partner countries GDP growth compared to average GDP growth % 4 average growth rate growth rate New Zealand Fiji PNG Tonga Regional Average Figure 2: Contribution to South Pacific defence spending in 2011 (2011 US$) (excluding NZ) PNG 57% Fiji 41% Tonga 2% 28

32 2011 US$m 80 South Pacific defence budgets (excluding NZ) Fiji PNG Tonga Proportion of GDP spent on defence SOUTH PACIFIC REGIONAL OVERVIEW 1.2 % NZ Fiji PNG Tonga 7 6 Proportion of government outlays spent on defence 5 4 % NZ Fiji PNG Tonga 29

33 FIJI 30

34 Country Name Fiji Capital City Suva Population Land Size sq km FIJI Over the last 10 years, Fiji s economy has experienced low average annual economic growth of just over 1 per cent. Fiji s economic growth was just 1.3 per cent in 2011, according to the IMF. Tourism earnings and agricultural output are likely to grow but Fiji s sugar industry outlook remains poor as farmers leave the industry and production continues to fall. Economic growth is forecast to be 1.2 per cent in 2012 and average 1.6 per cent to Currency Fiscal Year Industries Fiji Dollar 1 January 31 December Less developed country with a market economy Tourism, sugar, clothing, copra, gold and silver mining, timber and cottage industries Defence spending Fiji s 2011 defence budget was FJ$100m, US$51.9m in current terms, representing a 10.8 per cent real decrease on the 2010 defence budget. Since the December 2006 military coup, some foreign military assistance to Fiji has been withheld. This has reduced the prospects for the Republic of Fiji Military Forces to acquire new equipment from traditional sources. Fiji has deployed a battalion of around 223 soldiers to Iraq in support of the United Nations Mission to Iraq since An additional 55 soldiers deployed to Iraq in July this year, bringing the total to 278. FIJI 60 Defence Budget 55 US$m (2011)

35 NEW ZEALAND 32

36 Country Name Capital City Population Land Size NEW ZEALAND New Zealand Wellington 4.4 million sq km Over the last 10 years, New Zealand has experienced average annual economic growth of 2.3 per cent. The economy s growth slowed to just less than 1 per cent in 2011 following 1.5 per cent in 2010, according to the IMF. Strong demand for New Zealand s exports will contribute to continued economic growth. Economic growth is forecast to be 4 per cent in 2011 and to average 3.2 per cent annually to Currency Fiscal Year Industries New Zealand Dollar 1 July 30 June Advanced country with a market economy Wood products, textiles, machinery, transportation equipment, financial services, tourism and mining Defence spending The 2011 New Zealand defence budget is NZ$2.9bn, US$2.2bn in current terms, representing a 9.4 per cent real decrease on the 2010 defence budget. New Zealand is set to acquire nine NH90 helicopters to replace its ageing Iroquois utility helicopters. The Royal New Zealand Air Force is set to purchase an additional three AugustaWestland A109 helicopters. The navy received its second and final OTAGO class offshore patrol vessel in May 2010, completing the Protector program. NEW ZEALAND 3.0 Defence Budget 2.5 US$bn (2011)

37 PAPUA NEW GUINEA 34

38 Country Name Capital City Population PAPUA NEW GUINEA Papua New Guinea Port Moresby 6.7 million Over the last 10 years, Papua New Guinea (PNG) has recorded average annual economic growth of 3.9 per cent and in 2011 growth was 8 per cent. The main drivers of growth will be private consumption, supported by high prices for PNG s agricultural exports and investment, largely channelled into the thriving mining and petroleum sectors. Economic growth is forecast to be 5 per cent in 2012, and to average 7.3 per cent annually to Land Size Currency Fiscal Year Industries sq km Kina 1 January 31 December Less developed country with a market economy Copra crushing, palm oil, timber, crude oil production, construction, and gold, silver and copper mining Defence spending PNG s 2011 defence budget is K191.8m, US$70.3m in current terms, representing a 54.6 per cent real increase on the 2010 defence budget. The Papua New Guinea Defence Force is planning to double its regular manpower size and increase training capacity by 2015 to execute its mandated roles of border surveillance, patrols and sovereignty protection. PAPUA NEW GUINEA Defence Budget 60 US$m (2011)

39 TONGA 36

40 Country Name Tonga Capital City Nuku alofa Population TONGA Land Size Currency Fiscal Year Industries Over the last 10 years, Tonga s economy grew at a real annual average rate of under 1 per cent. Inflation remains high, driven by high global oil prices and the increase in prices for tobacco, alcohol and kava due to the imposition of an excise tax. Economic growth in 2011 was 1.5 per cent, according to the IMF. Tonga s tourism sector continues to perform well with tourism receipts experiencing high growth. Economic growth is forecast to be 1.8 per cent in 2012, and to average 1.8 per cent annually to sq km Pa anga 1 July 30 June Less developed country with a market economy Tourism, fish, squash, vanilla Defence spending Tonga s 2011 defence budget was TOP6.2m, US$3.0m in current terms, representing a 12.6 per cent real decrease on the 2010 defence budget. The Tonga Defence Services operate three patrol boats provided under Australia s Pacific Patrol Boat Program. Tonga rotated a second contingent of 55 soldiers to Afghanistan in June 2011 after a six week pre deployment training in England. TONGA Defence Budget 5.0 US$m (2011)

41 NORTH ASIA REGIONAL OVERVIEW NORTH ASIA REGIONAL OVERVIEW Regional economy Throughout 2011, economic activity in North Asia continued to grow, led by China s fast paced growth. China s growth slowed slightly in 2011 and its economy faces concerns of overheating and inflation. Russia continues to grow due to the massive fiscal stimulus by the government and high commodity prices. The March 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan has taken its toll on the economic output of the rest of the region, with Taiwan and South Korea most notably exposed to the disruptions to the manufacturing chain in Japan. Defence spending Strong economic growth over the last decade has supported growth in defence spending enabling military modernisation and acquisition programs among most countries in the region. In 2011, defence budgets increased across the board except for in Taiwan which is currently reforming its armed forces. Military modernisation remains a priority in the region with a number of procurement programs announced. North Korea is excluded from the regional comparison charts below due to a lack of reliable data % GDP growth compared to average GDP growth average growth rate growth rate China Japan South Korea Russia Taiwan NA average Contribution to North Asian defence spending in 2011 (2011 US$) Japan 24% South Korea 12% Russia 22% China 38% Taiwan 6% 38

42 2011 US$bn North Asian defence budgets China Japan South Korea Russia Taiwan 3.5 Proportion of GDP spent on defence 3 NORTH ASIA REGIONAL OVERVIEW % China Japan South Korea Russia Taiwan Proportion of government outlays spent on defence 11 9 % China Japan South Korea Russia Taiwan 39

43 CHINA 40

44 Country Name Capital City Population Land Size CHINA China Beijing 1.3 billion sq km Since 2000, China has experienced annual average economic growth of 10.5 per cent. Following the imposition of fiscal tightening measures in 2010, economic growth has slowed slightly to 9.6 per cent in 2011, down from 10.3 per cent in 2010, according to the IMF. Stimulus spending is coming to an end and is expected to decelerate economic expansion further to around 9.5 per cent in The average GDP growth rate is forecast to be 9.5 per cent. Currency Fiscal Year Industries Yuan 1 January 31 December Socialist market economy Iron, steel, petroleum, cement, chemical fertilisers, automobiles, electronics and telecommunications Defence spending The defence budget has averaged growth of over 10 per cent over the last 10 years, supported by strong economic growth, and currently stands at 601.1bn Yuan, US$92.9bn in current terms, and represents a 11.2 per cent real increase on the 2010 defence budget. But some commentators put China s real defence spending at a much higher figure. The high level of defence spending is sustaining a comprehensive military modernisation program with capable platforms being produced domestically like the Xian Y 20 strategic transport and the Chengdu J 20 fifth generation fighter aircraft. CHINA Defence Budget 80 US$bn (2011)

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