The U.S. Inflation Outlook
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1 The U.S. Inflation Outlook November 13, 1 Troy Davig* Senior Vice President and Director of Research Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City *The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City or the Federal Reserve System.
2 Inflation themes Inflation has been running below the Fed s % target since mid 1 The baseline case is for inflation to return gradually to % o 1.9% in 17 (FOMC median, SPF median, both q/q) In the near term, stabilizing energy prices to support inflation In the medium term, diminishing labor market slack and a stabilizing foreign exchange value of the USD are expected to support inflation
3 The median forecast of FOMC participants has inflation moving gradually toward % y/y % chg % target FOMC Projections (Sept 1) y/y % chg SEP Central tendency SEP Range PCE inflation Previous SEP projections Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Board, NBER, Haver Analytics 3
4 Falling energy and import prices have weighed on inflation y/y % chg y/y % chg PCE Price Index: Gasoline & Other Energy Goods Core Import Price Index Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, NBER, Haver Analytics
5 Health care service inflation has also been weighing on core PCE price inflation pp 1 Weighted contribution to % change in PCE price index pp window (avg annual % chg in PCE price index = %) Sept 1 to Sept 1 1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics
6 Health care inflation has risen at a faster pace over the past six months % % PCE: Health Care Price Index (y/y % chg) PCE: Health Care Price Index (6 month % chg, saar) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, NBER, Haver Analytics 6
7 Inflation in housing services and shelter costs have been rising over the past few years y/y % chg y/y % chg CPI U: Shelter PCE: Housing & Utilities Price Index Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, NBER, Haver Analytics 1 7
8 Vacancy rates remain low, suggesting additional rental price pressures going forward % % U.S. Rental Vacancy Rate Source: Census Bureau, NBER, Haver Analytics 6 8
9 The unemployment rate is near its longer run normal level and other measures show diminishing labor market slack % (sa) Median of FOMC longer run projection (Sept 1) % (sa) 11 FOMC 1 Projections (Sept 1) Unemployment rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board, NBER, Haver Analytics 9
10 Surveys suggest firms are experiencing increasing wage pressures % % NFIB: Net % Planning to Raise Worker Compensation in Next 3 Months (lhs) SHRM/Rutgers: Service Sector New Hire Compensation (Net Index) (lhs) SHRM/Rutgers: Mfg Sector New Hire Compensation (Net Index) (lhs) NABE Business Conditions Survey: Wages & Salaries Net Rising Index (rhs) Source: NABE, NBER, NFIB, SHRM/Rutgers, Haver Analytics 1
11 Additional labor market tightening could add support to core PCE inflation pp Contribution to core PCE inflation of the unemployment rate falling to % by Oct 16 pp Months Phillips Curve (slope coeffecient x Yellen (1)) Yellen (1) Phillips Curve Source: Yellen (September, 1), author s calculations 11
12 Market based measures of inflation compensation have declined % % US inflation compensation 1 years ahead Source: Federal Reserve Board, NBER, Haver Analytics 1 1
13 Survey based measures have remained largely stable and are consistent with inflation returning to % % % :Q1 1:Q1 13:Q1 1:Q1 1:Q1 PCE yyf PCE 1 year Source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Haver Analytics 13
14 Upside inflation risks Upside factors: Further labor market tightening under a kinked Phillips curve Housing and/or health care services inflation rises at a faster pace Upward movement in commodity prices Persistently low productivity growth 1
15 Downside inflation risks Downside factors: Further strengthening in the foreign exchange value of the dollar and additional softening in commodity prices A flat Phillips curve results in little support to core inflation under additional labor market tightening Inflation in health care services trends lower Productivity rises towards longer term historical norms 1
16
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