Developments and business opportunities in the Mexican mid- and downstream oil and natural gas sector

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1 Developments and business opportunities in the Mexican mid- and downstream oil and natural gas sector Market overview The energy reform in Mexico has opened up the market in many different ways. PEMEX used to be a monopoly player, but now it has to cooperate with other companies to survive. Indeed, now as a public productive company, PEMEX is not only entitled but obliged to create value to their operations and within this process, the experience, capabilities and financial strength of private companies will surely be welcomed. Also, they have full technical, operative and administrative independence, providing more flexible business capabilities. This whole development leads to a lot of opportunities not only in the upstream sector but also in the mid- and downstream sectors. The Mexican Petroleum and natural gas market is scale-wise one of the most interesting in the world, the size of the market is roughly 49 billion USD. Mexico is a huge producer of heavy crude, but it has a deficit of high value products. Mexico is a net importer of fuels, e.g. gasoline (48%), diesel & aviation fuels (29%), LPG (35%), Natural gas (27%) and other petrochemical substances (38%). The majority of the refineries that are used for production of petrochemicals are outdated and they cannot keep up with the production of heavy crude oil. To increase the productivity of Mexico s refineries, Mexico is importing light sweet crude from the USA and exporting heavy crude. This is called a crude swap, in which an equivalent volume of light crude will be exchanged for heavy crude. In the long run Mexico has the intention to become a producer of high value products, and maybe become a net exporter of them. This will probably happen with private investment in new refineries.

2 Market forecast The current market forecasts look very prosperous. Mexico is now the 3th biggest consumer of LPG, the 6 th biggest gasoline and the 12 th biggest natural gas consumer globally. With an already impressive market size, Mexico is expected to experience a growth in demand of 3% annually. Mexico has experienced a growth in energy related investments in Mexico during 2014 of 71% that is, from USD Billion in 2013 to USD Billion in 2014, it is clear that a new economic revolution has just started. M&A, joint ventures, consortium and general shared-risk transactions took a relevant part of such numbers and they will only tend to grow within the following 15 years. On June 2015 itself, CFE announced USD 9.8 Billion in new power and gas projects, which, independently from the opportunities to be created by the operation of the Wholesale Power Market, will mainly be instrumented through important alliances (Ramirez & Rodriguez, 2015). Cenegas, The new entity who is responsible for the gas pipeline infrastructure, announced that an investment of 15 Billion USD is required in the next 5 years. Due to the large private investments in the upstream sector, an increase in production is expected for the upcoming decade. Furthermore PEMEX will lose its monopoly rights on the usage of the pipelines, To keep up with these developments the pipeline infrastructure has to increase significantly. Business opportunities After the market opened up due to reforms numerous opportunities have arisen along the value chain. In the short to medium term there are many opportunities to invest. As discussed before, many of these projects will have to be executed together with PEMEX. For example in the form of a joint ventures in different areas, including refinning, different types of installantions, pipelines, gasoline stations, etc. Processes As discussed before the current capacity and state of the refineries is insufficient to keep up with the current production, let alone the expected increase. There are several ongoing projects, to improve the current refineries, increase production and efficiency. Furthermore PEMEX is also looking for partners to improve the processes of ethaline oxide derivatives, and increase the value of these derivatives. In the long term there will be new opportunities regarding the refinery of the crude. In the long run there will be demand for new refineries; topping units, hydro skimming or other kinds of more complex refineries. Installations Mexico is looking for some cogeneration installations in the short-run. New opportunities will arise in other facets. Installations of water treatment, hydrogen supply, separation of nitrogen and the

3 dehydration & desalination of the crude. Like the refineries the current capacity is simply not big enough, therefore large investments in new installations are needed. Logistics and infrastructure There are currently 4 big pipelines planned for the near future, see figure and description below. Transoceanic pipeline This is the biggest upcoming project, the pipeline will be roughly 600 kilometres. The investment will be around 1,7 billion USD. The pipeline will have a storage capacity of 500 million barrels. Suitable for gas, crude and fuels this pipeline will connect the 2 coasts of Mexico. Gulf-Centre pipelines To fulfil the rising demand of the centre of Mexico, the region with the highest population density of the country (Mexico D.F., Guadalajara and the Bajío region), a pipeline will be built between the Gulf of Mexico and the central part. The pipeline will have a length of 320 kilometres and a storage capacity of approximately 1050 mb. The investment is estimated around 770 million USD. Northern connection A shorter pipeline of 80 kilometres will be built in the north to create a connection with the United States and the third biggest Mexican market. The capacity of the pipeline is 105 million barrels and the investment is around 300 million USD. Peninsular pipeline The fourth major project will be constructed in Yucatan and Quintana room, mainly to supply the region of Yucatan and Cancun (which has the second largest airport of the country). Cancun is not yet directly connected with a production plant. Therefore everyday trucks have to drive from a plant to supply the Cancun area with fuel. The pipeline will have a capacity of 350 million barrels, and will be around 330 kilometres long. The investment will be around 350 million USD.

4 Moreover, there are numerous gas pipeline projects planned for the next couple of years. Mexico wants to double the length of its current pipelines within 5-10 years. Pipelines are really important for the development of the sector, it increases productivity, capacity and competitiveness. For natural gas there are also several opportunities in Mexico. With around 120 cities bigger than inhabitants the scale is huge to profit from the benefits of natural gas. This market is, until now, quite unexplored. Sales In the beginning of 2016 PEMEX will lose its monopoly right to sell gasoline and diesel directly to consumers. From 2017 onwards private companies are also able to import gasoline. Five companies have obtained permits that will allow the commercialization of combustibles, such as natural gas and jet fuel. These companies are: World Fuel Services Mexico, JM& Ral Energy, CFEnergia, Shell Trading Mexico, and Gas de Litoral. There are 15 permits for commercialization remain pending. Companies interested in commercializing natural gas include Igasamex Bajío and Iberdrola Energia Altamira de Servicios. Those waiting for for permits to commercialize petrol, jet fuel, diesel, petroleum coke, and certain petrochemicals are Altos Hornos de Mexico, Energas de Mexico, Pumas Energy, Pemex Refinacion, and MCG Mexico. The government is considering to liberalize the gasoline price in This creates business opportunities related to the infrastructure and systems used in gas stations. Contacts of the embassy The embassy is really focussing on all the developments in Mexico regarding the energy reform. There is a special division of the economic department dedicated to energy. This division has contacts with all the major players in the Mexican market. This includes universities, government entities like (SENER, CENAGAS, CFE) and private companies like Shell Mexico and PEMEX. The embassy is actively promoting Dutch companies to participate in the Mexican market. In September 2015 there was a successful trade mission with the focus on Energy and maritime. During the mission an MoU was signed, this will also facilitate more cooperation between the Netherlands and Mexico. Sources CENAGAS. (2015). presentation CENAGAS about the developments in the mexican energy market. Mexico: CENAGAS. Parizot Murillo, J. (2015). El papel de PEMEX Transformacion Industrial: perspectivas para los sectores de midstream and downstream. Mexico: PEMEX Transformacion Industrial. Ramirez, G., & Rodriguez, H. (2015). Wholesale power market and energy related M&A in Mexico. Mexico D.F: RGRH.

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