Drilling Productivity Report

Transcription

1 Independent Statistics & Analysis U.S. Energy Information Administration e 216 For key tight oil and shale gas regions Bakken Marcellus Utica Niobrara Permian Haynesville Eagle Ford The seven regions analyzed in this report accounted for 92% of domestic oil growth and all domestic natural gas growth during Contents Year-over-year summary Explanatory notes 1 Sources 11

2 Year-over-year summary e 216 projected through y New-well oil per rig New-well gas per rig 2, y-215 y , y-215 y-216 1,6 1, 1,2 8, 6, 8 4, 4 2, oil () (5) (75) (1) gas (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (1) (15) y-215 y-216 (6) (7) y-215 y-216 Indicated monthly in oil ( vs. ) Indicated monthly in gas ( vs. ) y-215 y-216 y-215 y Natural gas 2,8 y-215 y , y-215 y-216 2,4 15, 2, 12, 1,6 1,2 8 9, 6, 4 3, U. S. Energy Information Administration 2

3 e 216 projected through y y e one y 1,148 e 1, New-well oil per rig 1 new-well oil per rig New-well gas per rig 6, new-well gas per rig 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, oil (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) gas (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Indicated in oil ( vs. ) , ,1 Indicated in natural gas ( vs. ) , ,639 1,4 1,2 1, Natural gas , 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, U. S. Energy Information Administration 3

4 e 216 projected through y +3 1,97 1,67 y e one y 3,2 e 3, New-well oil per rig new-well oil per rig New-well gas per rig 7, 6, new-well gas per rig 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, oil (2) (4) (6) (8) (1) (12) (14) (16) gas (5) (1) (15) (2) () (3) (35) (4) (45) Indicated in oil ( vs. ) , ,152 Indicated in natural gas ( vs. ) , ,111 1,8 Natural gas , 1,5 1, , 6, 4, 2, U. S. Energy Information Administration 4

5 e 216 projected through y y e one y 5,5 e 5, New-well oil per rig 1, new-well oil per rig New-well gas per rig 6, new-well gas per rig 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, oil gas (1) (1) (2) (3) (2) (4) (5) (3) (6) Indicated in oil ( vs. ) Indicated in natural gas ( vs. ) , ,93 2, 1,6 1,2 8 4 Natural gas , 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, U. S. Energy Information Administration 5

6 e 216 projected through y y e one y 11,185 e 11,1 +6 New-well oil per rig 2, 1,6 1,2 8 4 new-well oil per rig New-well gas per rig new-well gas per rig 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, oil (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) gas (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Indicated in oil ( vs. ) Indicated in natural gas ( vs. ) , ,456 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Natural gas 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, U. S. Energy Information Administration 6

7 e 216 projected through y y e one y 2,928 e 2, New-well oil per rig new-well oil per rig New-well gas per rig 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, new-well gas per rig oil (1) (2) (3) (4) gas (3) (6) (9) (12) (15) (18) Indicated in oil ( vs. ) Indicated in natural gas ( vs. ) , ,37 1, Natural gas , 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, U. S. Energy Information Administration 7

8 e 216 projected through y y e one y 888 e New-well oil per rig new-well oil per rig New-well gas per rig 3, new-well gas per rig 2,5 2, 1,5 1, oil (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (1) gas (2) (4) (6) (8) (1) (12) (14) (16) (18) (2) Indicated in oil ( vs. ) , ,13 Indicated in natural gas ( vs. ) , ,914 2,2 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Natural gas , 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, U. S. Energy Information Administration 8

9 e 216 projected through y y e one y 7,48 e 7, New-well oil per rig 1,4 1,2 1, new-well oil per rig New-well gas per rig 8,4 new-well gas per rig 7,2 6, 4,8 3,6 2,4 1, oil (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) gas (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) Indicated in oil ( vs. ) Indicated in natural gas ( vs. ) , , Natural gas -4 3,6 3, 2,4 1,8 1, U. S. Energy Information Administration 9

10 Explanatory notes e 216 The uses recent data on the total number of drilling in operation along with estimates of drilling productivity and estimated s in existing oil and natural gas wells to provide estimated s in oil 1 and natural gas 2 for seven key regions. EIA s approach does not distinguish between oil-directed and gas-directed because once a well is completed it may produce both oil and gas; more than half of the wells do that. one one represent EIA s estimate of an s 3 contribution to of oil and natural gas. 4 The estimation of new-well per rig uses several months of recent historical data on total for each field divided by the region's monthly, lagged by two months. 5 Current- and next-month values are listed on the top header. The month-over-month is listed alongside, with +/- signs and color-coded arrows to highlight the growth or decline in oil (brown) or natural gas (blue). New-well oil/gas per rig Charts present historical estimated monthly one coupled with the number of total drilling as reported by Baker Hughes. oil and natural gas Charts present EIA s estimates of total oil and gas s all the wells other than the. The trend is dominated by the well depletion rates, but other circumstances can influence the direction of the. For example, well freeze-offs or hurricanes can cause to significantly decline in any given month, resulting in a increase the next month when simply returns to normal levels. Projected in monthly oil/gas Charts present the combined effects of new-well and s to legacy. Total new-well is offset by the anticipated in legacy to derive the net in. The estimated in does not reflect external circumstances that can affect the actual rates, such as infrastructure constraints, bad weather, or shut-ins based on environmental or economic issues. /gas Charts present all oil and natural gas both new and legacy wells since 27. This is based on all wells reported to the state oil and gas agencies. Where state data are not immediately available, EIA estimates the based on estimated s in new-well oil/gas and the corresponding legacy. Footnotes: 1. represents both crude and condensate all formations in the region. is not limited to tight formations. The regions are defined by all selected counties, which include areas outside of tight oil formations. 2. represents gross (before processing) gas all formations in the region. is not limited to shale formations. The regions are defined by all selected counties, which include areas outside of shale formations. 3. The monthly average used in this report is calculated weekly data on total oil and gas reported by Baker Hughes. 4. A new well is defined as one that began producing for the first time in the previous month. Each well belongs to the new-well category for only one month. Reworked and recompleted wells are excluded the calculation. 5. data lag data because EIA has observed that the best predictor of the number of new wells beginning in a given month is the count of in operation two months earlier. U. S. Energy Information Administration 1

11 Sources e 216 The data used in the preparation of this report come the following sources. EIA is solely responsible for the analysis, calculations, and conclusions. Drilling Info ( Source of, permit, and spud data for counties associated with this report. Source of real-time rig location to estimate spudded and completed throughout the United States. Baker Hughes ( Source of rig and well counts by county, state, and basin. North Dakota and Division ( Source of well, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in North Dakota Railroad Commission of Texas ( Source of well, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Texas Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection ( Source of well, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Pennsylvania West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection ( Source of well, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in West Virginia Colorado and Conservation Commission ( Source of well, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Colorado Wyoming and Conservation Commission ( Source of well, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Wyoming Louisiana Department of Natural Resources ( Source of well, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Louisiana Ohio Department of Natural Resources ( Source of well, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Ohio U. S. Energy Information Administration 11