3/2/2016. Association of Equipment Management Professionals U.S. Economic and Market Outlook. Labor Market Solid. Job Quitting

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1 Association of Equipment Management Professionals U.S. Economic and Market Outlook 34 th Management Conference and Annual Meeting Thursday, March 17, 2016 Jim Huntzinger, Chief Investment Officer BOK Financial Corporation Labor Market Solid Civilian Unemployment Rate: 16 yr + (SA, %) Unemployment down to 4.9%. Unemployment still in an improving trend. 4.9% 2 Job Quitting JOLT: Quits: Total (SA, Thous.) Number of people quitting their job rising That s good news. 3 1

2 Unemployment Claims Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, State Programs, Wkly. Avg. (SA, Thous.) And jobless claims remain low. Does not look recessionary. 4 Consumer Spending Retail Sales: Food Services & Drinking Places % Change Year to Year SA, Mil$ Retail Sales: Total % Change Year to Year SA, Mil$ Consumer continue to favor experiences over goods. 5 Consumer Confidence Conference Board: Consumer Confidence SA, 1985=100 Consumer confidence held solid in January, despite stock market weakness Consumers make up 2/3 s of Gross Domestic Product. 6 2

3 Vehicle Sales Total Light Vehicle Retail Sales [Imported+Domestic] SAAR, Mil Units And consumers are still confident enough to buy cars (Jan Mil. SAAR). 7 Corporate Profits Corporate Profits as % GDP Margins typically peak before market peaks. Slightly lower margins make it difficult for equity market to run higher. 8 Education & Unemployment Unemployment Rate: 25+ Years (SA, %) One of the great challenges for the U.S. in the 21 st century balancing the country s technological prowess with the need to create jobs. A country reliant upon services and consumption (both about 70% of the economy) presents a challenge for workers without high value-added skills to prosper and thrive. 9 3

4 Bull Markets S&P 500 Historical Bull Markets 1928 to Present Bull market long in the tooth. 10 Recession-Non Recession Market Decline Recessions -31% Non-Recessions -15% It s basically a binary outcome. If the economy is going into a recession, S&P declines have averaged -31%. Start S&P % 1980 Feb 1980 Nov -27% 1990 Jul -20% 2000 Mar -37% 2007 Oct -57% -31% Average Source: Evercore, ISI 11 Recession-Non Recession Market Decline Start S&P 500 Recessions -31% Non-Recessions -15% If the economy is not going into a recession, S&P declines have averaged - 15% Oct -14% 1987 Aug -33% 1990 Jan -10% 1994 Feb -9% 1997 Feb -10% 1997 Oct -11% 1998 Jul -19% 1999 Jul -11% 1999 Dec -9% 2002 Mar -34% 2002 Nov -14% 2007 Jul -9% 2010 Apr -16% 2011 Apr -19% 2012 Apr -10% 2015 May -12% -15% Average Source: Evercore, ISI 12 4

5 Oil Prices And Recessions Spot Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate [Prior 82=Posted Price] $/Barrel Typically, rising oil prices lead to recession not falling prices. 13 Rig Count And Production U.S. Oil Rig Count & U.S. Crude Oil Production U.S. crude production has begun to roll over, but U.S. Crude Oil Production, 4 Wk Avg. Ths Barrels Per Day (Left) Oil Rig Count (Right) 14 Crude Oil Inventories US Weekly Crude Inventories (Excluding SPR, Million of Barrels, EIA) Last Click Jan. 29 th : Million Barrels Inventories remain at elevated levels. 15 5

6 Historical Look At Oil Prices WTI Average Annual Price ($) WTI prices at levels last seen in early 2000 s. 16 Fiscal Breakeven Oil Prices Est Fiscal Breakeven Oil Prices for OPEC Countries (IMF) While the production cost are quite low in some OPEC countries their spending commitments are large. 17 Economic & Market Outlook Themes Economy Alert: The World has changed. Disturbing Oil, NIKKEI, bank stocks, and bond yields have all plunged. Response: Positive the Fed, ECB, BOJ, and Chinese policymakers. OPEC is attempting to respond. Encouraging gasoline prices and mortgage rates have declined. Market Cash will remain near zero, bond yields on a slow track higher. U.S. equities repricing due to increased risk confidence lacking. Oil and Chinese market need to find a low and Janet Yellen needs to communicate better in order for our equity market to improve. A VERY COMPLICATED PICTURE. 18 6

7 Legal Information Disclaimers The information provided in this was prepared by Jim Huntzinger, Chief Investment Officer of BOK Financial Corporation. The information provided herein is intended to be informative and not intended to be advice relative to any investment or portfolio offered through BOK Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:BOKF). The views expressed in this commentary reflect the opinion of the author based on data available as of the date this report was written and is subject to change without notice. This commentary is not a complete analysis of any sector, industry or security. Individual investors should consult with their financial advisor before implementing changes in their portfolio based on opinions expressed. The information provided in this commentary is not a solicitation for the investment management services of any BOKF subsidiary. BOK Financial Corporation (BOKF) offers wealth management and trust services through various affiliate companies and non-bank subsidiaries including advisory services offered by BOKF, NA (and its banking divisions Bank of Oklahoma, Bank of Texas, Bank of Albuquerque, Bank of Arkansas, Bank of Arizona, Colorado State Bank and Trust, and Bank of Kansas City) and its subsidiaries BOK Financial Asset Management, Inc., and Cavanal Hill Investment Management, Inc. each an SEC registered investment adviser. BOKF offers additional investment services and products through its subsidiary BOSC, Inc., a broker/dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, an SEC registered investment adviser and The Milestone Group, also an SEC registered investment adviser. Investments are not insured by the FDIC and are not guaranteed by BOKF, NA or any of its affiliates. Investments are subject to risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. This report may not be reproduced, redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed, or referred to in any publication, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of BOKF. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this research report constitutes your agreement not to redistribute, retransmit, or disclose to others the contents, opinions, conclusion, or information contained in this report. 19 7

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