Weather. Ron Bianchi Meteorologist/Sailor

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1 Weather Decoding Fundamentals The Weather Ron Bianchi Meteorologist/Sailor 1

2 2

3 APRIL 2015 TEMP OUTLOOK 3

4 APRIL 2015 RAINFALL OUTLOOK 4

5 MAY 2015 TEMP OUTLOOK 5

6 MAY 2015 RAINFALL OUTLOOK 6

7 JUNE 2015 TEMP OUTLOOK 7

8 JUNE 2015 RAINFALL OUTLOOK 8

9 JULY 2015 TEMP OUTLOOK 9

10 JULY 2015 RAINFALL OUTLOOK 10

11 AUGUST 2015 TEMP OUTLOOK 11

12 12 AUGUST 2015 RAINFALL OUTLOOK

13 13 SEPTEMBER 2015 TEMP OUTLOOK

14 14 SEPT RAINFALL OUTLOOK

15 15

16 16

17 17

18 18

19

20 Cyclone & Anticyclone Paths Low Pressures High Pressures General movements of weather systems across the Great Lakes

21 It s that simple? Upward Force Air moving UP Weather Happens Moisture High Humidity Barometer Falling 21

22 Good Upward Force + Very Little Moisture = Very Little Weather Happens Upward Force Air moving UP Very little Moisture Barometer Falling Very Little Weather Happens 22

23 Little Upward Force + Lots of Moisture = Very Little Weather Happens Very Little Upward Force Barometer Steady or falling very little Lots of Moisture High Humidity Again - Very Little Weather Happens 23

24 Sailors should have a basic understanding of how wind is generated and affected by other forces - and use that knowledge when predicting it s behavior out over the water when racing or cruising

25 The Scales of Wind 2000, Keith C. Heidorn, PhD

26 It all starts here Heating or cooling a column of air can establish horizontal variations in pressure that causes the air to move - creates wind.

27 Measuring Atmospheric Pressure Types of Barometers

28

29 Smoothed Isobar Maps

30

31 Isobars Basics The Gradient Tight Slack

32 The Big Forces that Affect Wind Pressure Gradient Force (PGF) Coriolis Force (CF) Friction (f)

33 Pressure gradient force PGF is the force that causes the wind to blow

34

35 Coriolis Force Apparent deflection due to rotation of the Earth Right in northern hemisphere and left in southern hemisphere Stronger wind = greater deflection No Coriolis effect at the equator greatest at poles. Only influence direction, not speed Only has significant impact over long distances

36 Coriolis effect on the wind flow

37 Cyclonic flow: PGF > CF Anticyclonic flow: PGF < CF

38 Map View Pressure + Coriolis Geostrophic wind Pressure Only Pressure + Coriolis = Geostrophic wind

39 Friction

40 Pressure Gradient + Coriolis + Friction Forces w/out Friction (gradient wind) w/ Friction

41 Lower Pressure

42 L

43 Solings Worlds Example Land Heat s Up Winds Land Heat s Up Winds

44

45

46 NIGHT DAY

47 What can Cumulus Clouds tell us about the really local Wind? Stay along the edges of the Cumulus do not venture to close to the centre of the cloud

48 LAKE BREEZE SET UP High Pressure over Southern Ontario Slack Isobar pattern If winds are greater than 20 knots Breeze unlikely Off-shore wind component less than 10 knots Depth of cumulus between 3,500 and 10,000 feet Land must be warmer than Lake (as little as 2 C) A strong lake breeze front could move up to 50 kilometres inland

49 The Effects of Friction 20 to 35 degrees over land 10 to 15 degrees over smooth water

50

51 51

52 So what does it tell the Mariner changes such as a warming trend, clouds and rain is a short ~24 hours away. - So enjoy you day out on the water 52

53 What are these???? 53

54 Wed at 5:00 PM (facing west) 54

55 Thurs at 3:15pm (facing west) so does the saying work 55

56 Large scale lift can cause high clouds to form hundreds of kilometers away.

57 If these Culumus do not change height in 3-5 hrs then fair weather continues

58

59

60 Cumulus Congestus Clouds Clouds with vertical development that become larger in height, with tops taking a ragged shape similar to cauliflower. Change is certain! maybe just 1 or 2 hrs away

61 Weather Change maybe minutes away

62

63

64

65

66

67 Rules of Thumb for Convection - 1 If cumulus tops are crisp and well defined... the cloud will continue to grow.

68 Rules of Thumb for Storm Development - 2 If cumulus tops are ragged and ill-defined... the cloud will not continue to grow.

69 Cloud Formation Leading to Sudden Severe Weather

70 Pileus Cloud An unusual cloud that forms above a building cumulus by deflected moist winds.

71 Pileus Cloud

72

73 Mammatus Cumulus

74

75 75

76 Green and Yellow Colouring

77 Leading edge of Gust Front Gusts up to 50+ Knots

78

79 Computer Generated GRIB Winds - Is the big thing now

80 Remember folks, - a model GRIB Data is not perfect! (but what is in life?) The atmospheric system very complex and detailed General forecast accuracy from most accurate to least accurate; (1) Winds Speed and direction scores the highest! (2) Thermal parameters - Temperatures (3) Moisture parameters - Humidity (4) Cloud parameters - How much cloud out there (5) Rainfall - How much will it rain? still hard to resolve

81

82 Smaller Grid Size Means More Accurate Model

83 Real Time Information Sources

84 Get ideas and help from the computer models. Computer models are tools - it s almost impossible to do it without computers. They help a lot, but are not always right be careful. Just like humans, computers need to also know what is happening now Possible answers All this data goes Super Computers do all the work

85 Example of a Computer Forecast Cloud Forecast Rainfall

86 Make a decision, pick a model answer you have high confidence and go with it. Your final forecast is a blend of what you think is going to happen, with the help of the models thinking Your Thoughts Final Forecast Computer Output

87

88 GRIB Files GRIB Viewer 1 km rez

89

90

91

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93

94

95 Lightning and the Mariner 95

96 Facts and myths about lightning The purpose of lightning protection is NOT to stop the lightning from striking. (T or F) Lightning grounding systems controls the PATH of the lightning after it hits. (T or F) Lightning can strike in the same place twice or more. (T or F) Lightning always strikes the tallest object. (T or F) Rubber tires protect you in a car during a lightning storm. (T or F) 96

97 What are the Chances of Lightning Striking Your Boat? The following statistics are based on all of the BoatUS Marine Insurance claims for lightning damage over a five-year period. Auxiliary Sail.6% Six out of 1000 Multi-hull sail.5% Five out of 1000 Trawlers.3% Three out of 1000 Sail Only.2% Two out of 1000 Cruisers.1% One out of 1000 Runabouts.02% Two out of 10,000 Source: BoatUS Marine Insurance Claim Files *General Population 1 in 14.5 Million* 97

98 Electric charge leaking from her head Snow, Ice Crystals Grauple Rain Drops 98

99 99

100 Anatomy of a Strike 100

101 101

102 102

103 103

104 104

105 105

106 106

107 Cone of Protection Lightning rod protects areas within its cone 60 degree cone is 85% effective 45 degree cone is 95% effective 107

108 NOT Grounded Grounded the grounding system is designed to handle the full lightning current 108

109 Unbonded Bonded Bonding system consists of mainly horizontal connections between metal fittings to short out any voltages that might otherwise develop. Bonding is a measure that is intended to 109 protect the crew

110 110

111 THUNDER Thunder is the acoustic shock wave caused by the extreme heat generated by a lightning flash. The air is instantaneously heated to as much as 50,000 F (~28,000 C), five times the surface of the sun! Its expansion rate exceeds the speed of sound, and a sonic boom (thunder) results. Learn the rule Take appropriate shelter when you can count 30 seconds or less between lightning and thunder. Remain sheltered for 30 minutes after the last thunder. New Rule When Thunder Roars Go Indoors! 111

112 What to do if you are outside 1. Seek shelter in a truck, car, or van. 2. Stay 15 feet away from other people to avoid transfer of shock. 3. Stay away from trees, picnic shelters or rain shelters, and canopies. 4. Hide in ditches or places of lower levels, but try to avoid water 5. If this is not an option, crouch down with your feet together and cover your ears to protect them from the thunder. 112

113 Staying Informed on the water Weather/Marine Radio s Weather Watches and Warnings Marine s VHF with S.A.M.E Technology Weather Station at the Club 113

114 Weather Radios with S.A.M.E. Technology 114

115 Weather Apps The Best Of 115

116 Intellicast Weather WSI Corp Android Storm by Weather Underground ios (only) AccuWeather Platinum ios and Android eweatherhd Android and ios NOAA Hi-Def Radar ios The Weather Channel - ios and Android Weather for Mobile Smartphones & Tablets ios and Android 116

117 117

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