Market Radar 8-Jul-16

Transcription

1 HEADLINES TODAY : Monsoon rains 35% above normal last week: IMD; U.S. Jobs data today. Market Radar 8-Jul-16 Opening Signals Last* %Chg %Chg -1D %Chg -2D S&P DAX Shanghai Nikkei SGX Nifty Gold Brent Market Outlook Today Asian markets are mixed with Nikkei up.15% after Japan's current account surplus narrowed and Shanghai down 1%. U.S. markets closed mixed ahead of the jobs data and as declines in oil prices weighed. In the ECB minutes of June meeting, the bank said monetary stimuli, including a new round of loans to Eurozone banks would take a while to kick in but central bankers would remain alert to the danger of low inflation or deflation becoming entrenched. Oil prices fell yesterday after DOE crude oil inventories fell less than expected while U.S. dollar index is down.16%. ADP employment report for June grew by 172k vs. 168k revised down from 173k in May and Initial jobless claims for the week ending 2 July fell by 16, to a nearly three-month low of 254k vs. 27k. Nonfarm payroll and unemployment rate for June on 8 July. In India, the EPFO board is said to meet today to discuss various issues including plans to invest more into the equity market. The Central Board of the RBI discussed the constitution of the Monetary policy committee, a panel to be jointly constituted by the government and the RBI that would determine the interest rates. Value buying kept prices supported at lower levels, but the holidays seem to have punctured markets momentum. A further cabinet rejig kept market participants interested, but investors appeared to adopt a wait and watch approach ahead of Q2 earnings announcements. 838 Nifty - Intraday Previous day Nifty - sectoral performance FII / DII Investment -Eq (Cr) 5-Jul 4-Jul 1-Jul 3-Jun 29-Jun 28-Jun DII News Box Mahindra Holiday (MHRL): Finland unit in JV pact with city of Kuusamo Tata Steel (TATA): Liberty House said to bid for 2 Tata U.K. units, Reuters says Market Statistics Last %Chg %Chg-1D %Chg-2D Turnover (Mln) Del Vol (Mln) Nifty VIX USDINR Advances * last updated at 8:3 AM

2 Technical Analysis Index levels 1D% MTD% YTD% S1 S2 PP R1 R2 Nifty BankNifty Sensex Trader's picks LTP : LUPIN LTP : IBULHSGFIN Action : BUY on dips Action : SELL Targets : 168 / 1725 Stop-loss : 1622 Comment : The stock managed to break above resistance of 1689 yesterday and the momentum seems to be bullish. MACD is positive and above zero line indicating further uptrend. Targets : 665 /651 Stop-loss : 692 Comment : The recent upside is showing signs of exhaustion and is pointing towards some profit booking in the near term. Volumes have moved above the 1 day average. Stochastic indicator is favoring more downside. LTP : SUNTV LTP : HAVELLS FUT Action : BUY Action : SELL on rise to 36 Targets : 387 / Stop-loss : Comment : The stock is trading close to the resistance zone of 385 and is expected to break above it. Momentum indicators are supporting further uptrend. MACD has crossed the signal and the zero line from below hinting at more upside. Targets : / 35 Stop-loss : 367 Comment : The futures have seen 8% increase in OI and decline in price indicating fresh short built up. The momentum indicators are hinting at continuation of the decline. Ongoing decline is expected to get support around 35 levels.

3 The following stocks have been picked for intraday trading using 9 technical set ups. However, further analyses, guidance and judicious use of stop losses are highly recommended. Late gainers Having moved up strongly in the last hour of the trade and closed near yesterday s high, these stocks could continue uptrend today. Ideal approach would be to buy with initial rallies, and to stay away if opening moves take the prices steeply higher or lower. WELSPUNIND GRUH Late losers Having fallen swiftly in the last hour and closed near yesterday s low, and could continue falling. unless near key supports. Ideal approach could be to sell on pull back, and to stay away if opening moves take the prices steeply higher or lower. SUNPHARMA COALINDIA TECHM ZEEL Near 52Wk Highs A new 52 week high is often a sign a strength followed by strong rallies. But expect some volatility or at times, reversal, as some investors book profits, while some others add more or buy fresh in anticipation of bigger gains. HDFCBANK BPCL HINDALCO RAMCOCEM Near 52Wk Lows A new 52 week low is often a sign of continuation of weakness or even steep falls, but it is not uncommon to see bounce back from this region, especially on first test, as some investors see such low levels as attractive. PRECAM

4 Intraday recovery These stocks recovered significantly from the day s lows, and could continue moving up especially in the initial hour. Ideal approach would be to buy on declines, and to stay away if opening moves take the prices steeply higher or lower. Stock LTP Recovery% S2 S1 R1 R2 DHANBANK ANDHRSUGAR SAKHTISUG Off intraday high These stocks fell significantly from the day s peaks, and could continue falling. Ideal approach could be to sell on pull back, and to stay away if opening moves take the prices steeply higher or lower. Stock LTP Decline % S2 S1 R1 R2 JKIL JINDALPHOT Positive breakout Stocks that saw buying interest breaching 5DMA during the day and might continue the uptrend today. Negative breakout These stocks have fallen below the key moving average of 5 DMA, which is a sign of weakness. CUMMINSIND BHARATFORG HAVELLS NH RELAXO Concurrent gainers These stocks have shown positive moves of atleast a percentage for the last three consecutive days, suggesting that the underlying trend is strong. Stock LTP %Chg S1 S2 R1 R2 COALINDIA AUROPHARMA MCDOWELL-N PFC

5 Derivative Analysis Nifty F&O Snapshot Current Previous %Change Nifty Fut Nifty CoC OI Volume PCR OI IV India VIX Commentary OI declined 1.38% at Vs PCR at 1.4. IV rose 15.3% to Vs Nifty VIX declined.36% to Vs Highest OI is seen in 85CE and 82PE. 84CE and 83 PE saw the most additions. 1 Nifty option OI concentration PUT Call 7 Nifty option OI change CE OI Chg PE OI Chg NiftyBank F&O Snapshot Current Previous %Change NiftyBank Fut NiftyBank CoC OI Volume PCR OI IV Commentary OI rose.16% to Vs BankNifty CoC down 21.8% at Vs PCR declined at.94 Vs IV rose 1.99% to Vs Highest OI is seen in 175PE and 185CE. OI added mostly in 18PE and 185CE. OI declined mostly in 18CE. 15 NiftyBank option OI concentration Call Put 2 NiftyBank option OI change CE OI Chg PE OI Chg FII Investment - F&O (Cr) 7-Jul 5-Jul 4-Jul 1-Jul 3-Jun 29-Jun 28-Jun Index fut Net Index Opt Net Stock Fut Net Stock Opt Net Deri Net inflow

6 Stock future OI setup Long buildup Short covering Stock LUPIN VEDL EXIDEIND SUNTV IDFC PTC CADILAHC PNB ORIENTBANK Price Chg% OI Chg% Stock Price Chg% OI Chg% HDFC SOUTHBANK DRREDDY UNITECH UNITECH HDFCBANK UPL ITC MRF Short buildup Long unwinding Stock GRANULES BIOCON HEROMOTOCO ICICIBANK BEL RELIANCE JISLJALEQS RELCAPITAL MARUTI IDEA Price Chg% OI Chg% Stock Price Chg% OI Chg% ENGINERSIN JETAIRWAYS PIDILITIND ANDHRABANK IFCI PETRONET GAIL IBULHSGFIN BHARTIARTL MARICO

7 DISCLAIMERS& DISCLOSURES: CERTIFICATION We, Anand James, Tency N. Kurien and Veena Vasanth, authors of this Report, hereby certify that all the views expressed in this research report reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject issuer or securities. This report has been prepared by the Research Team of Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services Limited, hereinafter referred to as GBNPP. COMPANY OVERVIEW Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services Limited (hereinafter GBNPP), a publically listed company, is engaged in services of retail broking, depository services, portfolio management and marketing investment products including mutual funds, insurance and properties. GBNPP is a SEBI registered Research Entity and as such prepares and shares research data and reports periodically with clients, investors, stake holders and general public in compliance with Securities and Exchange Board of India Act, 1992, Securities And Exchange Board Of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 214 and/or any other applicable directives, instructions or guidelines issued by the Regulators from time to time. DISTRIBUTION OF REPORTS This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. GBNPP will not treat the recipients of this report as clients by virtue of their receiving this report. GENERAL REPRESENTATION The research reports do not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instruments, inducements, promise, guarantee, warranty, or as an official confirmation of any transaction or contractual obligations of any kind. This report is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. We have also reviewed the research report for any untrue statements of material facts or any false or misleading information. While we endeavour to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. RISK DISCLOSURE GBNPP and/or its Affiliates and its officers, directors and employees including the analyst/authors shall not be in any way be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Investors may lose his/her entire investment under certain market conditions so before acting on any advice or recommendation in these material, investors should consider whether it is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. This report does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation/circumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this report should make such investigation as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this report (including the merits and risks involved). The price, volume and income of the investments referred to in this report may fluctuate and investors may realize losses that may exceed their original capital.

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