Macro Environment and Global Equity Shareholder Yield

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1 MARKET COMMENTARY 1q 2016 Macro Environment and Global Equity Shareholder Yield reflections on the past quarter The first quarter of 2016 was truly a tale of two halves as shown in Figure 1. Continued concerns over global growth, weakness in commodities and fears of a U.S. recession spooked markets causing a sharp correction in first half of the quarter. However, the second half proved a much different story as continued dovish policies by central banks and stronger U.S. economic data eased investor concerns fueling a market reversal and causing stocks to rally. The Global Equity Shareholder Yield strategy was able to do well, consistent with its long-term behavior of providing better riskadjusted returns in volatile markets. figure 1: a tale of two halves: S&P 500 returns, first quarter 2016 Return (%) Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; March 2016 Investor sentiment and macroeconomic factors played an important role in market returns during the quarter. In the first half of the quarter, we observed defensive and yield-oriented sectors, such as telecoms and utilities, performing well while the more economically sensitive sectors underperformed. This trend reversed in the second half of the quarter as economically sensitive sectors, such as technology and consumer discretionary, lead the market rally. Even with this leadership reversal, defensive sectors were able to do well in the second half of the quarter. Overall utilities and telecom had the strongest results, which served as a tailwind for our strategy during the quarter. figure 2: a tale of two halves: S&P 500 sector returns Source: Standard & Poor s, Epoch Investment Partners; April 2016 Reprint by TD Asset Management Inc. of an article previously issued by Epoch Investment Partners, Inc. Please refer to the Canadian disclosures at the end of the article. 1

2 During the quarter, the market witnessed significant price declines in the health care sector. Pharmaceuticals and biotech companies were particularly impacted by political uncertainty surrounded drug pricing. However, the fundamentals for many of the companies remain strong based on expectations for future cash flow. Once the market has more clarity on the presidential election, we believe the sector will rebound. The Global Equity Shareholder Yield strategy continues to see opportunities within the larger pharmaceutical companies as they have strong balance sheets, generate significant free cash flow, and have long-standing capital allocation policies of returning cash to shareholders. figure 3: health care multiples compress: market aggregate price/earnings ntma Source: Standard & Poor s, Epoch Investment Partners; April 2016 From 2012 through 2015, the market witnessed a 40% increase in P/E multiples. The effects of this large scale re-rating are evident in the components of returns as multiple expansion has been the primary driver of returns during this period. Going forward, stocks will be less likely to benefit from this broad-based valuation expansion. We believe there is a real risk that P/E multiples will be flat or even contract. As a result, earnings growth (better measured through free cash flow) and dividends will become increasingly important components of return. figure 4: equity markets have re-rated as a result of qe: leaving little further room for multiple expansion Index 2,250 2,150 2,050 1,950,850 1,750 1,650 1,550 1,450 1,350 S&P 500 P/E 17x 16x 15x 14x 13x 12x Source: Standard & Poor s, Yardeni Research 1,250 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 2

3 the road ahead A lack of global growth continues to be one of our primary concerns. China has represented a substantial amount of global growth over the last several years and the changes to the country s economy will have a disruptive impact on global growth prospects. Given an economic backdrop of low growth reflected in poor demographics, lack of demand, increased debt, and no inflation, we believe that a lower growth rate for developed market economies is more likely. As top-line growth may be challenged, the strategy s focus on finding companies with the ability to generate free cash flow and return that cash flow to shareholders even in a challenging economic environment will be of increased importance. figure 5: 2% is the new 4% for mature economies: gdp components 1. Includes all 28 members of the European Union as well as Iceland, Norway and Switzerland, Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Israel, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan 2. Includes China, India, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam, Argentina, Barbados, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala, Jamaica, Mexico, Peru, St. Lucia, Trinidad & Tobago, Uruguay, Venezuela, Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Angola, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cote d Ivoire, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe Source: The Conference Board The Conference Board Total Economy Database, May 2015, One observation is that technology is having a large impact on capital productivity, which we believe is not being captured in current economic measures. We are entering an increasingly capital-light world where less capital is needed to generate the same level of sales. The substitution of capital for labor through technology will have a positive effect on free cash flow and we believe it will allow profit margins to exceed expectations. We expect this trend to continue, increasing the amount of cash flow available to be returned to shareholders. figure 6: global capex sag: labor cost savings from adoption of advanced industrial robots (%, 2025) 35% 33% 30% Labor Cost Savings (%) 25% 20% 15% 10% 25% 24% 22% 22% 21% 21% 20% 18% 17% 16% 14% 13% Average global labor-cost savings: 16% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6% 5% 3% Source: BCG TheBostonConsultingGroup/robotics-inmanufacturing; Minack Advisors. March % 0% 0% 3

4 In a low-growth world where demand is lacking, companies will have fewer opportunities and a lower need for reinvestment in their business. Additionally, companies will require less capital to generate a dollar of sales in an increasingly capital-light world. As a result, we expect a large amount of cash flow to continue to be used for dividends and buybacks. Accordingly, we would expect the strategy to benefit from these trends. figure 7: buybacks and dividends to continue at a high level: s&p 500 annual buybacks and dividends 1. Projection based on current run rate; Dividends through 6/30/15; Buybacks through 6/30/15; Source: S&P; Epoch Investment Partners; 2Q 2015 finding the opportunities The strategy tends to find the most opportunities within sectors that are traditionally known for paying regular, growing cash dividends to their shareholders namely consumer staples, telecommunication services, and utilities. Over the last few years, we have seen an increase in the strategy s weight to financials. Within financials, our emphasis on transparency and growth in shareholder yield has led us to invest primarily in insurers/asset managers, exchange operators, and a select group of regional banks and REITs where operating income serves as the source of cash for paying shareholder yield. We continue to be cautious of the large universal banks. More recently, we have also seen an increase in the portfolio s weight to technology and industrials as we have found several high-quality companies that exhibit the desired shareholder yield characteristics within these sectors. Returns for both sectors have also been stronger than many other sectors of the market, which has also contributed to the increase in weighting. Even with the additions, the portfolio s exposure to technology remains small. Technology has not historically offered an abundance of attractive names for the strategy. This is largely due to the fact that many companies in the sector do not generate much free cash flow and those that do, particularly in the past handful of years, have hoarded their cash. When we find companies within technology that consistently generate, grow and return free cash flow to shareholders and that would meaningfully contribute to the objectives of the strategy, we will add them to the portfolio. figure 8: global equity shareholder yield sector allocation As of March 31, 2016 Source: FactSet Research Systems, Inc.; MSCI Inc. The data shown is of a representative account and such data may vary for each client in the strategy due to market conditions, client guidelines and diversity of portfolio holdings. The data is unaudited and may change at any time. The data is supplemental to the composite presentation, is shown for informational purposes only, and is not indicative of future portfolio characteristics or returns. Financials Utilities Telecom Consumer Staples Industrials Health Care Energy Technology Consumer Materials Discretionary 4

5 Japan remains one of the most challenging areas of the market to find opportunities appropriate for the Global Equity Shareholder Yield strategy. Japanese companies have historically not met our minimum shareholder yield criteria and while there have been some encouraging signs that Japan s corporate governance is improving and shareholder returns are increasing, the overall shareholder yield level remains low. We are monitoring changes to corporate governance, including companies focus on creating value for their shareholders through efficient capital allocations policies, which is improving, but at a very slow pace. Japanese companies have large amounts of cash potentially available for distribution and this could prove attractive in the longer term should Japanese companies move more toward shareholder-oriented capital allocation policies. Similarly, we find limited opportunities within emerging markets due to emerging market companies having more limited track records and weaker corporate governance structures. We believe the emerging markets will continue to face headwinds as their dependency on commodity exports makes them more vulnerable to the slowdown in China than other areas of the market. figure 9: global equity shareholder yield country allocation As of March 31, 2016 Source: FactSet Research Systems, Inc.; MSCI Inc. The data shown above is of a representative account and such data may vary for each client in the strategy due to market conditions, client guidelines and diversity of portfolio holdings. The data is unaudited and may change at any time. The data is supplemental to the composite presentation, is shown for informational purposes only, and is not indicative of future portfolio characteristics or returns. conclusion 2016 has proved volatile thus far. Economic data and investor sentiment suggest that significant headwinds remain. Corporate profits will likely be challenged and global growth will be slow as the world grapples with a lack of demand, increased debt, and weak inflation. Volatility is expected to remain heightened and evolving monetary policies will continue to influence the nature, trajectory, and sustainability of the continued global recovery. As much of the macroeconomic environment above is unknowable, sustainable dividends and earnings growth measured through consistent cash flow growth will be increasingly important components of equity market returns. The Global Equity Shareholder Yield strategy presents a unique opportunity as it focuses on capturing these sources of return. As the long-run track record of the strategy demonstrates, we believe our companies will be rewarded over time for the strength of their balance sheets, consistent cash flow growth, and discipline in delivering shareholder yield (returning cash to shareholders through cash dividends, share buybacks and debt reduction) even in a challenging economic environment. Canadian Disclosures: The statements contained herein are based on material believed to be reliable. Where such statements are based in whole or in part on information provided by third parties, they are not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. The information does not provide individual financial, legal, tax or investment advice and is for information purposes only. Graphs and charts are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or changes. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Epoch Investment Partners, Inc., The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered. Certain statements in this document may contain forward-looking statements ( FLS ) that are predictive in nature and may include words such as expects, anticipates, intends, believes, estimates and similar forward-looking expressions or negative versions thereof. FLS are based on current expectations and projections about future general economic, political and relevant market factors, such as interest and foreign exchange rates, equity and capital markets, the general business environment, assuming no changes to tax or other laws or government regulation or catastrophic events. Expectations and projections about future events are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties, which may be unforeseeable. Such expectations and projections may be incorrect in the future. FLS are not guarantees of future performance. Actual events could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any FLS. A number of important factors including those factors set out above can contribute to these digressions. You should avoid placing any reliance on FLS. Epoch Investment Partners, Inc. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of The Toronto-Dominion Bank and an affiliate of TD Asset Management, Inc. All trademarks are the property of their respective owners. 5

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