# Foreign Exchange Exposure and Risk Management

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1 CHAPTER 12 Foreign Exchange Exposure and Risk Management BASIC CONCEPTS AND FORMULAE 1. Foreign Exchange Market The foreign exchange market is the market in which individuals, firms and banks buy and sell foreign currencies or foreign exchange. The purpose of the foreign exchange market is to permit transfers of purchasing power denominated in one currency to another i.e. to trade one currency for another. Like any other market buyer and seller exist in this market and the demand and supply functions play a big role in determination of exchange rate of the currency. 2. Exchange Rate Determination An exchange rate is, simply, the price of one nation s currency in terms of another currency, often termed as the reference currency. The foreign exchange market includes both the spot and forward exchange rates. (a) The Spot Market: A spot rate occurs when buyers and sellers of currencies agree for immediate delivery of the currency. (b) The Forward Market: A forward exchange rate occurs when buyers and sellers of currencies agree to deliver the currency at some future date. The forward exchange rate is set and agreed by the parties and remains fixed for the contract period regardless of the fluctuations in the spot exchange rates in future. 3. Exchange Rate Quotation (a) Direct and Indirect Quote: A foreign exchange quotation can be either a direct quotation and or an indirect quotation, depending upon the home currency of the person concerned. A direct quote (also called the European terms) is the home currency price of one unit of foreign currency. An indirect quote (also called the American terms) is the foreign currency price of one unit of the home currency. Mathematically, expressed as follows: Direct quote = 1/indirect quote and vice versa (b) Bid, Offer and Spread: Foreign exchange quotes are two-way quotes, expressed as a 'bid and an offer' (or ask) price. Bid is the price at which the dealer is willing to buy another currency. The offer is the rate at which he is willing to sell another currency.

2 Foreign Exchange Exposure and Risk Management Exchange Rate Forecasting Corporates need to do the exchange rate forecasting for taking decisions regarding hedging, short-term financing, short-term investment, capital budgeting, earnings assessments and long-term financing. Investors and traders need tools to select and analyze the right data from the vast amount of data available to them to help them make good decisions. 5. Techniques of Exchange Rate Forecasting There are numerous methods available for forecasting exchange rates. They can be categorized into four general groups- technical, fundamental, market-based, and mixed. (a) Technical Forecasting: It involves the use of historical data to predict future values. For example time series models. (b) Fundamental Forecasting: It is based on the fundamental relationships between economic variables and exchange rates. For example subjective assessments, quantitative measurements based on regression models and sensitivity analyses. (c) Market-Based Forecasting: It uses market indicators to develop forecasts. The current spot/forward rates are often used, since speculators will ensure that the current rates reflect the market expectation of the future exchange rate. (d) Mixed Forecasting: It refers to the use of a combination of forecasting techniques. The actual forecast is a weighted average of the various forecasts developed. 6. Exchange Rate Theories (a) Interest Rate Parity (IRP): This theory which states that the size of the forward premium (or discount) should be equal to the interest rate differential between the two countries of concern. When interest rate parity exists, covered interest arbitrage (means foreign exchange risk is covered) is not feasible, because any interest rate advantage in the foreign country will be offset by the discount on the forward rate. Covered Interest Rate Parity equation is given by: F (1+ r ) = (1+ r ) D F S Where, (1 + r D ) = Amount that an investor would get after a unit period by investing a rupee F in the domestic market at r D rate of interest and (1 + r F ) is the amount that an S investor by investing in the foreign market at r F so that the investment of one rupee yield same return in the domestic as well as in the foreign market. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity equation is given by:

3 12.3 Strategic Financial Management S 1 (1+ r ) = (1+ r ) D F S Where, S 1 = Expected future spot rate when the receipts denominated in foreign currency is converted into domestic currency. (b) Purchasing Power Parity (PPP): This theory focuses on the inflation-exchange rate relationship. There are two forms of PPP theory: Absolute Form- Also called the Law of One Price suggests that prices of similar products of two different countries should be equal when measured in a common currency. If a discrepancy in prices as measured by a common currency exists, the demand should shift so that these prices should converge. Relative Form An alternative version that accounts for the possibility of market imperfections such as transportation costs, tariffs, and quotas. It suggests that because of these market imperfections, prices of similar products of different countries will not necessarily be the same when measured in a common currency. In Equilibrium Form: P S = α D P F Where, S (`/\$) = spot rate P D = is the price level in India, the domestic market. P F = is the price level in the foreign market, the US in this case. Α = Sectoral price and sectoral shares constant. (c) International Fisher Effect (IFE): According to this theory, nominal risk-free interest rates contain a real rate of return and anticipated inflation. This means if investors of all countries require the same real return, interest rate differentials between countries may be the result of differential in expected inflation. The IFE equation can be given by: r D P D = r F ΔP F or P D P F = ΔS = r D r F

4 Foreign Exchange Exposure and Risk Management Comparison of PPP, IRP AND IFE Theories Theory Key Variables Summary Interest Rate Parity (IRP) Forward rate premium (or discount) Interest rate differential The forward rate of one currency will contain a premium (or discount) that is determined by the differential in interest rates between the two countries. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Percentage change in spot exchange rate Inflation rate differential The spot rate of one currency with respect to another will change in reaction to the differential in inflation rates between two countries. International Fisher Effect (IFE) Percentage change in spot exchange rate Interest rate differential The spot rate of one currency with respect to another will change in accordance with the differential in interest rates between the two countries. 8. Risk Management A risk is anything that can lead to results that deviate from the requirements. Risk Management is, any activity which identifies risks, and takes action to remove or control negative results (deviations from the requirements). Unpredictable changes in interest rates, yield curve structures, exchange rates, and commodity prices, exacerbated by the explosion in international expansion, have made the financial environment riskier today than it ever was in the past. For this reason, boards of directors, shareholders, and executive and tactical management need to be seriously concerned that corporate risk management activities be adequately assessed, prioritized, driven by strategy, controlled, and reported. 9. Risk Considerations There are several types of risk that an investor should consider and pay careful attention to. Some types of risk are as follows: (a) Financial Risk: It is the potential loss or danger due to the uncertainty in movement of foreign exchange rates, interest rates, credit quality, liquidity position, investment price, commodity price, or equity price, as well as the unpredictability of sales price, growth, and financing capabilities. (b) Business Risk: This risk, also known as investment risk, may materialize because of forecasting errors made in market acceptance of products, future technological changes, and changes in costs related to projects.

5 12.5 Strategic Financial Management (c) Credit or Default Risk: This type of risk is of particular concern to investors who hold bonds within their portfolio. (d) Country Risk: This refers to the risk that a country would not be able to honour its financial commitments. When a country defaults it can harm the performance of all other financial instruments in that country as well as other countries it has relations with. (e) Interest Rate Risk: It refers to the change in the interest rates. A rise in interest rates during the term of an investor s debt security hurts the performance of stocks and bonds. (f) Political Risk: This represents the financial risk that a country's government will suddenly change its policies. (g) Market Risk: It is the day-to-day fluctuations in a stock s price. It is also referred to as volatility. (h) Foreign Exchange Risk: Foreign exchange risk applies to all financial instruments that are in a currency other than the domestic currency. 10. Foreign Exchange Exposure Foreign exchange exposure refers to those parts of a company s business that would be affected if exchange rate changes. 11. Types of Exposures (a) Transaction Exposure: It measures the effect of an exchange rate change on outstanding obligations that existed before exchange rates changed but were settled after the exchange rate changed. Thus, it deals with cash flows that result from existing contractual obligations. (b) Translation Exposure: Also known as accounting exposure, it refers to gains or losses caused by the translation of foreign currency assets and liabilities into the currency of the parent company for accounting purposes. (c) Economic Exposure: It refers to the extent to which the economic value of a company can decline due to changes in exchange rate. It is the overall impact of exchange rate changes on the value of the firm. 12. Techniques for Managing Exposure The aim of foreign exchange risk management is to stabilize the cash flows and reduce the uncertainty from financial forecasts. Various techniques for managing the exposure are as follows: (A) Derivatives: A derivatives transaction is a bilateral contract or payment exchange agreement whose value depends on - derives from - the value of an underlying asset, reference rate or index. Every derivatives transaction is constructed from two simple building blocks that are fundamental to all derivatives: forwards and options. They include:

6 Foreign Exchange Exposure and Risk Management 12.6 (a) Forwards-based Derivatives: There are three divisions of forwards-based derivatives: (i) The Forward Contract-The simplest form of derivatives is the forward contract. It obliges one party to buy, and the other to sell, a specified quantity of a nominated underlying financial instrument at a specific price, on a specified date in the future. (ii) Swaps-Swaps are infinitely flexible. They are a method of exchanging the underlying economic basis of a debt or asset without affecting the underlying principal obligation on the debt or asset. Swaps can be classified into the following groups: Interest rate; Currency; Commodity; and Equity. (iii) Futures Contracts- A basic futures contract is very similar to the forward contract in its obligation and payoff profile. Some important distinctions between futures and forwards and swaps are: The contract terms of futures are standardized. All transactions are carried out though the exchange clearing system thus avoiding the other party risk. (b) Options: They offer, in exchange for a premium, the right - but not the obligation - to buy or sell the underlying at the strike price during a period or on a specific date. So the owner of the option can choose not to exercise the option and let it expire. An option is a contract which has one or other of the two key attributes: to buy (call option)- It is a contract that gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy a specified number of units of commodity or a foreign currency from the seller of option at a fixed price on or up to a specific date. to sell (put option)- It is a contract that gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to sell a specified number of units of commodity or a foreign currency to a seller of option at a fixed price on or up to a specific date. The holder of an American option has the right to exercise the contract at any stage during the period of the option, whereas the holder of a European option can exercise his right only at the end of the period.

7 12.7 Strategic Financial Management (B) Money Market Hedge: A money market hedge involves simultaneous borrowing and lending activities in two different currencies to lock in the home currency value of a future foreign currency cash flow. The simultaneous borrowing and lending activities enable a company to create a homemade forward contract. (C) Forward Market Hedge: In a forward market hedge, a company that has a long position in a foreign currency will sell the foreign currency forward, whereas a company that has a short position in a foreign currency will buy the foreign currency forward. In this manner, the company can fix the dollar value of future foreign currency cash flow. (D) Netting: Netting involves associated companies, which trade with each other. The technique is simple. Group companies merely settle inter affiliate indebtedness for the net amount owing. Gross intra-group trade, receivables and payables are netted out. (E) Matching: Matching is a mechanism whereby a company matches its foreign currency inflows with its foreign currency outflows in respect of amount and approximate timing. Receipts in a particular currency are used to make payments in that currency thereby reducing the need for a group of companies to go through the foreign exchange markets to the unmatched portion of foreign currency cash flows. (F) Leading and Lagging: Leading means paying an obligation in advance of the due date. Lagging means delaying payment of an obligation beyond its due date. Leading and lagging are foreign exchange management tactics designed to take advantage of expected devaluations and revaluations of currencies. (G) Price Variation: Price variation involves increasing selling prices to counter the adverse effects of exchange rate change. (H) Invoicing in Foreign Currency: Sellers usually wish to sell in their own currency or the currency in which they incur cost. This avoids foreign exchange exposure. For the buyer, the ideal currency is usually its own or one that is stable relative to it, or it may be a currency of which the purchaser has reserves. (I) Asset and Liability Management: Asset and liability management can involve aggressive or defensive postures. In the aggressive attitude, the firm simply increases exposed cash inflows denominated in currencies expected to be strong or increases exposed cash outflows denominated in weak currencies. By contrast, the defensive approach involves matching cash inflows and outflows according to their currency of denomination, irrespective of whether they are in strong or weak currencies. (J) Arbitrage: The simple notion in arbitrage is to purchase and sell a currency simultaneously in more than one foreign exchange markets. Arbitrage profits are the result of the difference in exchange rates at two different exchange centres and the difference, due to interest yield which can be earned at different exchanges.

8 Foreign Exchange Exposure and Risk Management Strategies for Exposure Management Four separate strategy options are feasible for exposure management. They are: (a) Low Risk: Low Reward- This option involves automatic hedging of exposures in the forward market as soon as they arise, irrespective of the attractiveness or otherwise of the forward rate. (b) Low Risk: Reasonable Reward- This strategy requires selective hedging of exposures whenever forward rates are attractive but keeping exposures open whenever they are not. (c) High Risk: Low Reward- Perhaps the worst strategy is to leave all exposures unhedged. (d) High Risk: High Reward- This strategy involves active trading in the currency market through continuous cancellations and re-bookings of forward contracts. With exchange controls relaxed in India in recent times, a few of the larger companies are adopting this strategy. Question 1 Outland Steel has a small but profitable export business. Contracts involve substantial delays in payment, but since the company has had a policy of always invoicing in dollars, it is fully protected against changes in exchange rates. More recently the sales force has become unhappy with this, since the company is losing valuable orders to Japanese and German firms that are quoting in customers own currency. How will you, as Finance Manager, deal with the situation? As a Finance Manager to deal with the situation two problems emerge (i) the problem of negotiating individual contracts and (ii) managing the company s foreign exchange exposure. The sales force can be allowed to quote in customer s own currency and hedge for currency risk by obtaining the forward contracts etc. The finance manager can decide whether the company ought to insure. There are two ways of protecting against exchange loss. Firstly, by selling the foreign currency forward and secondly, to borrow foreign currency against its receivables, sell the foreign currency spot and invest the proceeds in the foreign currency say dollars. Interest rate parity theory tells us that in free market the difference between selling forward and selling spot should be exactly equal to difference between the interest on the money one has to pay overseas and the interest one earns from dollars. Question 2 Operations in foreign exchange market are exposed to a number of risks. Discuss.

9 12.9 Strategic Financial Management A firm dealing with foreign exchange may be exposed to foreign currency exposures. The exposure is the result of possession of assets and liabilities and transactions denominated in foreign currency. When exchange rate fluctuates, assets, liabilities, revenues, expenses that have been expressed in foreign currency will result in either foreign exchange gain or loss. A firm dealing with foreign exchange may be exposed to the following types of risks: (i) Transaction Exposure: A firm may have some contractually fixed payments and receipts in foreign currency, such as, import payables, export receivables, interest payable on foreign currency loans etc. All such items are to be settled in a foreign currency. Unexpected fluctuation in exchange rate will have favourable or adverse impact on its cash flows. Such exposures are termed as transactions exposures. (ii) Translation Exposure: The translation exposure is also called accounting exposure or balance sheet exposure. It is basically the exposure on the assets and liabilities shown in the balance sheet and which are not going to be liquidated in the near future. It refers to the probability of loss that the firm may have to face because of decrease in value of assets due to devaluation of a foreign currency despite the fact that there was no foreign exchange transaction during the year. (iii) Economic Exposure: Economic exposure measures the probability that fluctuations in foreign exchange rate will affect the value of the firm. The intrinsic value of a firm is calculated by discounting the expected future cash flows with appropriate discounting rate. The risk involved in economic exposure requires measurement of the effect of fluctuations in exchange rate on different future cash flows. Question 3 What is the meaning of: (i) Interest Rate Parity and (ii) Purchasing Power Parity? (i) Interest Rate Parity (IRP): Interest rate parity is a theory which states that the size of the forward premium (or discount) should be equal to the interest rate differential between the two countries of concern. When interest rate parity exists, covered interest arbitrage (means foreign exchange risk is covered) is not feasible, because any interest rate advantage in the foreign country will be offset by the discount on the forward rate. Thus, the act of covered interest arbitrage would generate a return that is no higher than what would be generated by a domestic investment. The Covered Interest Rate Parity equation is given by: F S ( 1 + r ) = ( 1+ ) D r F

10 Foreign Exchange Exposure and Risk Management Where (1 + r D ) = Amount that an investor would get after a unit period by investing a rupee in the domestic market at r D rate of interest and (1+ r F ) F/S = is the amount that an investor by investing in the foreign market at r F that the investment of one rupee yield same return in the domestic as well as in the foreign market. Thus IRP is a theory which states that the size of the forward premium or discount on a currency should be equal to the interest rate differential between the two countries of concern. (ii) Purchasing Power Parity (PPP): Purchasing Power Parity theory focuses on the inflation exchange rate relationship. There are two forms of PPP theory:- The ABSOLUTE FORM, also called the Law of One Price suggests that prices of similar products of two different countries should be equal when measured in a common currency. If a discrepancy in prices as measured by a common currency exists, the demand should shift so that these prices should converge. The RELATIVE FORM is an alternative version that accounts for the possibility of market imperfections such as transportation costs, tariffs, and quotas. It suggests that because of these market imperfections, prices of similar products of different countries will not necessarily be the same when measured in a common currency. However, it states that the rate of change in the prices of products should be somewhat similar when measured in a common currency, as long as the transportation costs and trade barriers are unchanged. The formula for computing the forward rate using the inflation rates in domestic and foreign countries is as follows: (1+ id ) F = S (1+ if ) Where F= Forward Rate of Foreign Currency and S= Spot Rate i D = Domestic Inflation Rate and i F = Inflation Rate in foreign country Thus PPP theory states that the exchange rate between two countries reflects the relative purchasing power of the two countries i.e. the price at which a basket of goods can be bought in the two countries. Question 4 Write short notes on the following: (a) Leading and lagging (b) Meaning and Advantages of Netting (c) Nostro, Vostro and Loro Accounts

12 Foreign Exchange Exposure and Risk Management ) Gives an accurate report and settles accounts through co-ordinated efforts among all subsidiaries. (c) In interbank transactions, foreign exchange is transferred from one account to another account and from one centre to another centre. Therefore, the banks maintain three types of current accounts in order to facilitate quick transfer of funds in different currencies. These accounts are Nostro, Vostro and Loro accounts meaning our, your and their. A bank s foreign currency account maintained by the bank in a foreign country and in the home currency of that country is known as Nostro Account or our account with you. For example, An Indian bank s Swiss franc account with a bank in Switzerland. Vostro account is the local currency account maintained by a foreign bank/branch. It is also called your account with us. For example, Indian rupee account maintained by a bank in Switzerland with a bank in India. The Loro account is an account wherein a bank remits funds in foreign currency to another bank for credit to an account of a third bank. Question 5 The price of a bond just before a year of maturity is \$ 5,000. Its redemption value is \$ 5,250 at the end of the said period. Interest is \$ 350 p.a. The Dollar appreciates by 2% during the said period. Calculate the rate of return. Here we can assume two cases (i) If investor is US investor then there will be no impact of appreciation in \$. (ii) If investor is from any other nation other than US say Indian then there will be impact of \$ appreciation on his returns. First we shall compute return on bond which will be common for both investors. Return = = = (Pr ice at end - Pr ice at begining) + Interest Pr ice at begining ( ) =0.12 say 12% 5000 (i) For US investor the return shall be 12% and there will be no impact of appreciation in \$. (ii) If \$ appreciate by 2% then return for non-us investor shall be: Return x 1.02 = 0.12 x 1.02= i.e % Alternatively it can also be considered that \$ appreciation will be applicable to the amount of principal as well. The answer therefore could also be (1+0.12)(1+0.02) -1 =1.12X = i.e %

13 12.13 Strategic Financial Management Question 6 You sold Hong Kong Dollar 1,00,00,000 value spot to your customer at ` 5.70 & covered yourself in London market on the same day, when the exchange rates were US\$ 1 = H.K.\$ Local inter bank market rates for US\$ were Spot US\$ 1 = ` Calculate cover rate and ascertain the profit or loss in the transaction. Ignore brokerage. The bank (Dealer) covers itself by buying from the market at market selling rate. Rupee Dollar selling rate = ` Dollar Hong Kong Dollar = HK \$ Rupee Hong Kong cross rate = ` / = ` Profit / Loss to the Bank Amount received from customer (1 crore 5.70) ` 5,70,00,000 Amount paid on cover deal (1 crore ) ` 5,64,71,000 Profit to Bank ` 5,29,000 Question 7 Following are the details of cash inflows and outflows in foreign currency denominations of MNP Co. an Indian export firm, which have no foreign subsidiaries: Currency Inflow Outflow Spot rate Forward rate US \$ 4,00,00,000 2,00,00, French Franc (FFr) 2,00,00,000 80,00, U.K. 3,00,00,000 2,00,00, Japanese Yen 1,50,00,000 2,50,00, (i) (ii) Determine the net exposure of each foreign currency in terms of Rupees. Are any of the exposure positions offsetting to some extent?

14 Foreign Exchange Exposure and Risk Management (i) Net exposure of each foreign currency in Rupees Inflow Outflow Net Inflow Spread Net Exposure (Millions) (Millions) (Millions) (Millions) US\$ FFr UK Japan Yen (ii) The exposure of Japanese yen position is being offset by a better forward rate Question 8 The following 2-way quotes appear in the foreign exchange market: Spot 2-months forward RS/US \$ `46.00/`46.25 `47.00/`47.50 Required: (i) How many US dollars should a firm sell to get `25 lakhs after 2 months? (ii) How many Rupees is the firm required to pay to obtain US \$ 2,00,000 in the spot market? (iii) Assume the firm has US \$ 69,000 in current account earning no interest. ROI on Rupee investment is 10% p.a. Should the firm encash the US \$ now or 2 months later? (i) US \$ required to get ` 25 lakhs after 2 months at the Rate of ` 47/\$ ` 25,00,000 = US \$ ` 47 (ii) ` required to get US\$ 2,00,000 now at the rate of ` 46.25/\$ US \$ 200,000 `46.25 = `92,50,000 (iii) Encashing US \$ Now Vs 2 month later Proceed if we can encash in open mkt \$ `46 = ` 31,74,000 Opportunity gain 10 2 = 31,74,000 ` 52, Likely sum at end of 2 months 32,26,900

15 12.15 Strategic Financial Management Proceeds if we can encash by forward rate : \$ ` ,43,000 It is better to encash the proceeds after 2 months and get opportunity gain. Question 9 Z Ltd. importing goods worth USD 2 million, requires 90 days to make the payment. The overseas supplier has offered a 60 days interest free credit period and for additional credit for 30 days an interest of 8% per annum. The bankers of Z Ltd offer a 30 days loan at 10% per annum and their quote for foreign exchange is as follows: ` Spot 1 USD days forward for 1 USD days forward for 1 USD You are required to evaluate the following options: (I) Pay the supplier in 60 days, or (II) Avail the supplier's offer of 90 days credit. (I) Pay the supplier in 60 days If the payment is made to supplier in 60 days the applicable ` forward rate for 1 USD Payment Due USD 2,000,000 Outflow in Rupees (USD `57.10) `114,200,000 Add: Interest on loan for 30 p.a. ` 9,51,667 Total Outflow in ` `11,51,51,667 (II) Availing supplier s offer of 90 days credit Amount Payable USD 2,000,000 Add: Interest on credit period for 30 p.a. USD 13,333 Total Outflow in USD USD 2,013,333 Applicable forward rate for 1 USD `57.50 Total Outflow in ` (USD 2,013,333 `57.50) `115,766,648 Alternative 1 is better as it entails lower cash outflow.

16 Foreign Exchange Exposure and Risk Management Question 10 Followings are the spot exchange rates quoted at three different forex markets: USD/INR in Mumbai GBP/INR in London GBP/USD in New York The arbitrageur has USD1,00,00,000. Assuming that there are no transaction costs, explain whether there is any arbitrage gain possible from the quoted spot exchange rates. The arbitrageur can proceed as stated below to realize arbitrage gains. (i) Buy ` from USD 10,000,000 At Mumbai ,000,000 `483,000,000 (ii) ` 483,000,000 Convert these ` to GBP at London ( ) Rs GBP 6,230, (iii) Convert GBP to USD at New York GBP 6,230, USD 10,112, There is net gain of USD 10, less USD 10,000,000 i.e USD 112, Question 11 The US dollar is selling in India at ` If the interest rate for a 6 months borrowing in India is 10% per annum and the corresponding rate in USA is 4%. (i) Do you expect that US dollar will be at a premium or at discount in the Indian Forex Market? (ii) What will be the expected 6-months forward rate for US dollar in India? and (iii) What will be the rate of forward premium or discount? (i) Under the given circumstances, the USD is expected to quote at a premium in India as the interest rate is higher in India. (ii) Calculation of the forward rate: 1+ R h F1 = 1+ R E f o Where: R h is home currency interest rate, R f is foreign currency interest rate, F 1 is end of the period forward rate, and E o is the spot rate. 1 + ( 0.10/2) F Therefore = / ( )

17 12.17 Strategic Financial Management F = or F = or = F or F 1 = `57.13 (iii) Rate of premium: = 5.87% Question 12 In March, 2009, the Multinational Industries make the following assessment of dollar rates per British pound to prevail as on : \$/Pound Probability (i) What is the expected spot rate for ? (ii) If, as of March, 2009, the 6-month forward rate is \$ 1.80, should the firm sell forward its pound receivables due in September, 2009? (i) Calculation of expected spot rate for September, 2009: \$ for Probability Expected \$/ (1) (2) (1) (2) = (3) EV = 1.81

18 Foreign Exchange Exposure and Risk Management Therefore, the expected spot value of \$ for for September, 2009 would be \$ (ii) If the six-month forward rate is \$ 1.80, the expected profits of the firm can be maximised by retaining its pounds receivable. Question 13 A company operating in Japan has today effected sales to an Indian company, the payment being due 3 months from the date of invoice. The invoice amount is 108 lakhs yen. At today's spot rate, it is equivalent to ` 30 lakhs. It is anticipated that the exchange rate will decline by 10% over the 3 months period and in order to protect the yen payments, the importer proposes to take appropriate action in the foreign exchange market. The 3 months forward rate is presently quoted as 3.3 yen per rupee. You are required to calculate the expected loss and to show how it can be hedged by a forward contract. Spot rate of ` 1 against yen = 108 lakhs yen/` 30 lakhs = 3.6 yen 3 months forward rate of Re. 1 against yen = 3.3 yen Anticipated decline in Exchange rate = 10%. Expected spot rate after 3 months = 3.6 yen 10% of 3.6 = 3.6 yen 0.36 yen = 3.24 yen per rupee ` (in lakhs) Present cost of 108 lakhs yen 30 Cost after 3 months: 108 lakhs yen/ 3.24 yen Expected exchange loss 3.33 If the expected exchange rate risk is hedged by a Forward contract: Present cost 30 Cost after 3 months if forward contract is taken 108 lakhs yen/ 3.3 yen Expected loss 2.73 Suggestion: If the exchange rate risk is not covered with forward contract, the expected exchange loss is ` 3.33 lakhs. This could be reduced to ` 2.73 lakhs if it is covered with Forward contract. Hence, taking forward contract is suggested. Question 14 ABC Co. have taken a 6 month loan from their foreign collaborators for US Dollars 2 millions. Interest payable on maturity is at LIBOR plus 1.0%. Current 6-month LIBOR is 2%. Enquiries regarding exchange rates with their bank elicits the following information:

19 12.19 Strategic Financial Management Spot USD 1 ` (i) (ii) 6 months forward ` What would be their total commitment in Rupees, if they enter into a forward contract? Will you advise them to do so? Explain giving reasons. Firstly, the interest is calculated at 3% p.a. for 6 months. That is: USD 20,00,000 3/100 6/12 = USD 30,000 From the forward points quoted, it is seen that the second figure is less than the first, this means that the currency is quoted at a discount. (i) The value of the total commitment in Indian rupees is calculated as below: Principal Amount of loan USD 20,00,000 Add: Interest USD 30,000 Amount due USD 20,30,000 Spot rate ` Forward Points (6 months) ( ) Forward Rate ` Value of Commitment ` 9,83,68,725 (ii) It is seen from the forward rates that the market expectation is that the dollar will depreciate. If the firm's own expectation is that the dollar will depreciate more than what the bank has quoted, it may be worthwhile not to cover forward and keep the exposure open. If the firm has no specific view regarding future dollar price movements, it would be better to cover the exposure. This would freeze the total commitment and insulate the firm from undue market fluctuations. In other words, it will be advisable to cut the losses at this point of time. Given the interest rate differentials and inflation rates between India and USA, it would be unwise to expect continuous depreciation of the dollar. The US Dollar is a stronger currency than the Indian Rupee based on past trends and it would be advisable to cover the exposure. Question 15 Excel Exporters are holding an Export bill in United States Dollar (USD) 1,00,000 due 60 days hence. They are worried about the falling USD value which is currently at ` per USD. The concerned Export Consignment has been priced on an Exchange rate of ` per USD. The Firm s Bankers have quoted a 60-day forward rate of `

20 Foreign Exchange Exposure and Risk Management Calculate: (i) Rate of discount quoted by the Bank (ii) The probable loss of operating profit if the forward sale is agreed to. (i) Rate of discount quoted by the bank ( ) = = 5.33% (ii) Probable loss of operating profit: ( ) 1,00,000 = ` 30,000 Question 16 Airlines Company entered into an agreement with Airbus for buying latest plans for a total value of F.F. (French Francs) 1,000 Million payable after 6 months. The current spot exchange rate is INR (Indian Rupees) 6.60/FF. The Airlines Company cannot predict the exchange rate in the future. Can the Airlines Company hedge its Foreign Exchange risk? Explain by examples. Airlines Company can hedge its foreign exchange risk by the following ways: (i) Hedging through Forward Contract: The Company can take full forward cover against foreign exchange exposure and entirely hedge its risk. It can contract with a bank to buy French franc forward at an agreed exchange rate e.g. suppose the 6 months forward rate is INR 6.77/FF. The liability is fixed and the airlines can concentrate on operation. Cost of forward contract = days (ii) Foreign Currency Option: Foreign currency option is the right (not an obligation) to buy or sell a currency at an agreed exchange rate (exercise price) on or before an agreed maturity period. The right to buy is called a call option and right to sell is put option. Suppose, the airlines wants to purchase a 6 months put option. The put option exercise rate (say) is INR The Airlines will be required to pay a premium for purchasing the option say 5% of the value of put option INR = INR 335 Maximum final cost = = INR 7035 Suppose at the end of 6 months the exchange rate stay at INR 6.8/FF Airlines will exercise its put option hence it will sell (pay) INR 6.7 The exercise price to obtain one French Franc in this market, it will be required to pay INR 6.80.

21 12.21 Strategic Financial Management Suppose exchange rate at the end of 6 months is INR 6.35, Airlines should not exercise its option. In the open market it need to pay only INR 6.35 (instead of INR 6.70) to buy one FF. However, it has already paid the option premium. (iii) Money Market Operations: Airlines can borrow in Indian Rupee an amount and get it converted in FFs at Spot Rate. This amount can be invested in France for 6 months so that this amount along with interest due on it becomes equal to FFs 1000 million and is used for making the payment. The loan in Indian Rupee can be repaid back after 6 months along with the interest due thereon. If interest rate parity holds, the difference in the forward rate and the spot rate is the reflection of the difference in the interest rates in two countries. Thus Airlines will be able to hedge against the changes in the exchange rate. The problem with money market is that all markets are not open and all countries are not fully convertible. Question 17 The United States Dollar is selling in India at ` If the interest rate for a 6-months borrowing in India is 8% per annum and the corresponding rate in USA is 2%. (i) Do you expect United States Dollar to be at a premium or at discount in the Indian forward market? (ii) What is the expected 6-months forward rate for United States Dollar in India; and (iii) What is the rate of forward premium or discount? (i) Under the given circumstances, the USD is expected to quote at a premium in India as the interest rate is higher in India. (ii) Calculation of the forward rate: 1+ R h F1 = 1+ R E f o Where: R h is home currency interest rate, R f is foreign currency interest rate, F 1 is end of the period forward rate, and E o is the spot rate. 1+ ( 0.08/2) F1 Therefore = / F1 = ( 1.04) or = 1.01 ( ) F 1

22 Foreign Exchange Exposure and Risk Management or = F or F 1 = (iii) Rate of premium: = 5.93% 6 Question 18 (a) On 1st April, 3 months interest rate in the US and Germany are 6.5 per cent and 4.5 per cent per annum respectively. The \$/DM spot rate is What would be the forward rate for DM for delivery on 30th June? (b) In International Monetary Market an international forward bid for December, 15 on pound sterling is \$ at the same time that the price of IMM sterling future for delivery on December, 15 is \$ The contract size of pound sterling is 62,500. How could the dealer use arbitrage in profit from this situation and how much profit is earned? (a) USD DM Spot Interest rate p.a. 6.5% 4.5% Interest for 91 days Amount after 91 days Hence forward rate OR Forward rate = = (b) Buy = \$ Sell = \$ Profit \$ 62.50

23 12.23 Strategic Financial Management Alternatively if the market comes back together before December 15, the dealer could unwind his position (by simultaneously buying 62,500 forward and selling a futures contract. Both for delivery on December 15) and earn the same profit of \$ Question 19 An Indian importer has to settle an import bill for \$ 1,30,000. The exporter has given the Indian exporter two options: (i) Pay immediately without any interest charges. (ii) Pay after three months with interest at 5 percent per annum. The importer's bank charges 15 percent per annum on overdrafts. The exchange rates in the market are as follows: Spot rate (` /\$) : / Months forward rate (`/\$) : /48.83 The importer seeks your advice. Give your advice. If importer pays now, he will have to buy US\$ in Spot Market by availing overdraft facility. Accordingly, the outflow under this option will be ` Amount required to purchase \$130000[\$130000X`48.36] Add: Overdraft Interest for 3 p.a If importer makes payment after 3 months then, he will have to pay interest for 3 5% p.a. for 3 month along with the sum of import bill. Accordingly, he will have to buy \$ in forward market. The outflow under this option will be as follows: \$ Amount of Bill Add: Interest for 3 p.a Amount to be paid in Indian Rupee after 3 month under the forward purchase contract ` (US\$ X ` 48.83) Since outflow of cash is least in (ii) option, it should be opted for. Question 20 A company is considering hedging its foreign exchange risk. It has made a purchase on 1st. January, 2008 for which it has to make a payment of US \$ 50,000 on September 30, 2008.

24 Foreign Exchange Exposure and Risk Management The present exchange rate is 1 US \$ = ` 40. It can purchase forward 1 US \$ at ` 39. The company will have to make a upfront premium of 2% of the forward amount purchased. The cost of funds to the company is 10% per annum and the rate of corporate tax is 50%. Ignore taxation. Consider the following situations and compute the Profit/Loss the company will make if it hedges its foreign exchange risk: (i) If the exchange rate on September 30, 2008 is ` 42 per US \$. (ii) If the exchange rate on September 30, 2008 is ` 38 per US \$. (`) Present Exchange Rate `40 = 1 US\$ If company purchases US\$ 50,000 forward premium is % 39,000 Interest on `39,000 for 9 months at 10% 2,925 Total hedging cost 41,925 If exchange rate is `42 Then gain (`42 `39) for US\$ 50,000 1,50,000 Less: Hedging cost 41,925 Net gain 1,08,075 If US\$ = `38 Then loss (39 38) for US\$ 50,000 50,000 Add: Hedging Cost 41,925 Total Loss 91,925 Question 21 Following information relates to AKC Ltd. which manufactures some parts of an electronics device which are exported to USA, Japan and Europe on 90 days credit terms. Cost and Sales information: Japan USA Europe Variable cost per unit `225 `395 `510 Export sale price per unit Yen 650 US\$10.23 Euro Receipts from sale due in 90 days Yen 78,00,000 US\$1,02,300 Euro 95,920

25 12.25 Strategic Financial Management Foreign exchange rate information: Yen/` US\$/` Euro/` Spot market months forward months spot Advice AKC Ltd. by calculating average contribution to sales ratio whether it should hedge it s foreign currency risk or not. If foreign exchange risk is hedged Total (`) Sum due Yen 78,00,000 US\$1,02,300 Euro 95,920 Unit input price Yen 650 US\$10.23 Euro11.99 Unit sold Variable cost per unit `225/ Variable cost `27,00,000 `39,50,000 `40,80,000 `1,07,30,000 Three months forward rate for selling Rupee value of `32,13,844 `47,36,111 `53,88,764 `1,33,38,719 receipts Contribution `5,13,844 `7,86,111 `13,08,764 `26,08,719 Average contribution 19.56% to sale ratio If risk is not hedged Rupee value of `31,72,021 `47,44,898 `53,58,659 `1,32,75,578 receipt Total contribution `25,45,578 Average contribution 19.17% to sale ratio AKC Ltd. Is advised to hedge its foreign currency exchange risk. Question 22 XYZ Ltd. is an export oriented business house based in Mumbai. The Company invoices in customers currency. Its receipt of US \$ 1,00,000 is due on September 1, 2009.

26 Foreign Exchange Exposure and Risk Management Market information as at June 1, 2009 is: Exchange Rates Currency Futures US \$/` US \$/` Contract size `4,72,000 Spot June Month Forward September Months Forward Initial Margin Interest Rates in India June `10, % September `15, % On September 1, 2005 the spot rate US \$Re. is and currency future rate is Comment which of the following methods would be most advantageous for XYZ Ltd. (a) Using forward contract (b) Using currency futures (c) Not hedging currency risks. It may be assumed that variation in margin would be settled on the maturity of the futures contract. Receipts using a forward contract (1,00,000/ ) = `47,01,457 Receipts using currency futures The number of contracts needed is (1,00,000/ )/4,72,000 = 10 Initial margin payable is 10 x `15,000 = `1,50,000 On September 1 Close at Receipts = US\$1,00,000/ = 46,88,233 Variation Margin = [( ) x 10 x /-]/ OR ( x10x472000)/ = 755.2/ ,406 47,23,639 Less: Interest Cost 1,50,000 x 0.08 x 3/12 `3,000 Net Receipts `47,20,639 Receipts under different methods of hedging Forward contract `47,01,457 Futures `47,20,639

27 12.27 Strategic Financial Management No hedge US\$ 1,00,000/ The most advantageous option would have been to hedge with futures. `46,88,233 Question 23 Spot rate 1 US \$ = ` days Forward rate for 1 US \$ = ` Annualised interest rate for 6 months Rupee = 12% Annualised interest rate for 6 months US \$ = 8% Is there any arbitrage possibility? If yes how an arbitrageur can take advantage of the situation, if he is willing to borrow `40,00,000 or US \$83,312. Spot Rate = `40,00,000 /US\$83,312 = Forward Premium on US\$ = [( )/ ] x 12/6 x 100 = 3.36% Interest rate differential = 12% - 8% = 4% (Negative Interest rate differential) Since the negative Interest rate differential is greater than forward premium there is a possibility of arbitrage inflow into India. The advantage of this situation can be taken in the following manner: 1. Borrow US\$ 83,312 for 6 months Amount to be repaid after 6 months = US \$ 83,312 ( x 6/12) = US\$86, Convert US\$ 83,312 into Rupee and get the principal i.e. `40,00,000 Interest on Investments for 6 months `40,00,000/- x 0.06= `2,40,000/- Total amount at the end of 6 months = `(40,00, ,40,000) = `42,40,000/- Converting the same at the forward rate = `42,40,000/ ` = US\$ 86, Hence the gain is US \$ (86, ,644.48) = US\$ `10,103 i.e., (\$ x ` ) OR

28 Foreign Exchange Exposure and Risk Management Question 24 Given the following information: Exchange rate Canadian dollar per DM (spot) Canadian dollar per DM (3 months) Interest rates DM 7% p.a. Canadian Dollar 9% p.a. What operations would be carried out to take the possible arbitrage gains? In this case, DM is at a premium against the Can\$. Premium = [( ) /0.665] x (12/3) x 100 = 3.01 per cent Interest rate differential = 9% - 7% = 2 per cent. Since the interest rate differential is smaller than the premium, it will be profitable to place money in Deutschmarks the currency whose 3-months interest is lower. The following operations are carried out: (i) Borrow Can\$ 1000 at 9 per cent for 3- months; (ii) Change this sum into DM at the spot rate to obtain DM = (1000/0.665) = (iii) Place DM in the money market for 3 months to obtain a sum of DM Principal: Add: 7% for 3 months = Total (iv) Sell DM at 3-months forward to obtain Can\$= ( x0.67) = (v) Refund the debt taken in Can\$ with the interest due on it, i.e., Can\$ Principal Add: for 3 months Total Net arbitrage gain = = Can\$ 2.65 Question 25 An Indian exporting firm, Rohit and Bros., would be cover itself against a likely depreciation of pound sterling. The following data is given:

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