HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures

Transcription

1 Bill Chamberlin Principal Analyst, IBM Market Insights 17 Aug 2011 HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures

2 How does a company survive 100 years? 2

3 How does a company survive 200 years? 3

4 Table of Contents How IBM Develops a View of the Future: Eight IBM Foresight Initiatives How I, as a Market Insights Professional, Develop a View of the Future 4

5 IBM has a diverse, evolving, set of internal foresight capabilities focused on technology, society and business Eight IBM Foresight Initiatives 1. Global Technology Outlook 2. Academy of Technology 3. First of a Kind (FOAK) 4. Global Innovation Outlook 5. InnovationJam 6. Institute for Business Value 7. Market Development & Insights 8. HorizonWatch Community Global Technology Outlook (GTO) Academy of Technology (AoT) InnovationJam Market Development & Insights (MDI) Global Innovation Outlook (GIO) First of a Kind (FOAK) Institute for Business Value (IBV) Community: Horizonwatch 5

6 The Global Technology Outlook is developed annually by IBM Research, which has 11 labs located in 9 countries Dublin Almaden Watson Zurich Haifa China Tokyo Austin India Rio 5 Nobel Laureates Melbourne IBM Research Lab 14 National Medals 6 Turing Awards 80 Members of National Academies 11 Inductees, National Inventors Hall of Fame 6

7 The Global Technology Outlook team solicits input from the wide diversity of disciplines at IBM Research Behavioral Sciences Chemistry Computer Science Engineering Improved human computer interaction sub-micron lithography Deep QA for Natural Language Processing (Watson) Nano-science and Nano-technology Materials Science Mathematical Sciences Physics Service Science, Management & Engineering Science & Engineering Business & Management Technology Innovation Business Innovation Social Innovation Demand Innovation 7 Organic Semiconductors protein folding Trackpoint for Thinkpad, Risk Management Social & Cognitive Sciences Economics & Markets Improve services-led economy

8 IBM Research s annual Global Technology Outlook identifies disruptive societal, technical and economic trends that might impact IBM and its clients Global Technology Outlook (GTO) Objective The GTO identifies significant technology trends early. It looks for high impact disruptive technologies leading to game changing products and services over a 3-10 year horizon Disruptive technologies, potential new technologies, game changers Identify trends - - exponentials, thresholds, discontinuities, walls New technologies, new markets The GTO is used to drive technical initiatives in IBM Research and to jointly engage with IBM in formulating these initiatives About The Process It s a process that takes the whole year and involves getting input from all IBM Industry and Business Unit Strategists, IBM Research employees, University researchers, partners, and suppliers 8

9 2011 GTO Topics What does IBM Research think is going to be important in the future? Socially Synergistic Enterprise Solutions Aggregating, correlating and analyzing data generated from physical devices, structured information, and social networks Petascale Analytics Appliance and Ecosystem Big Analytics is needed to rapidly extract business value from huge volumes of Big Data Natural Resources Transformation & Management To meet rising global natural resource needs, companies will need to use IT to improve asset utilization, production and operational efficiency Internet of Things Managing the large amounts of new, interconnected devices that will help monitor the physical world and manage business processes Frontiers of IT Moving from computing systems as calculators to learning systems 9

10 A side benefit of the GTO process is the 5 in 5 series of foresight predictions published every year

11 The Global Innovation Outlook focused more on broad issues impacting all types of organizations Focused on broad and challenging topics spanning geographies, generations, industries and interests Global Innovation Outlook (GIO) Ran from , picked 2-3 topics per year Surfaced insights and opportunities for business and societal innovation Open, collaborative, multi-disciplinary process with external business leaders, academics, researchers and policymakers Helped to launch IBM spin-off projects Topics Water Security & Society Africa Media and Content Energy & Environment Transportation Future of the Enterprise Gaming & Leadership The Inventor s Forum A New IP Marketplace Government Business of Work & Life Healthcare 11

12 The IBM Academy of Technology is a society of IBM technical leaders across all IBM Business Units Academy Mission Advance the understanding of key emerging technical areas, Improve development of IBM's global technical community, Engage clients in technical pursuits of mutual value. Sets the Technical Agenda via Activities Anyone in IBM s technical community can start an Academy activity Currently, many activities are in areas such as: Smarter Planet Cloud Computing Business Analytics and Optimization What makes a good Academy activity? Stimulate, organize, synthesize and advance technical dialogue and innovation across business lines Understand the gaps and address the opportunities for innovation that occur at the intersections of units and technical disciplines, Academy of Technology (AoT) 12

13 The First-of-a-Kind (FOAK) Program encourages collaboration of early adopter clients with IBM Research and Sales First of a Kind (FOAK) Pushes early thought leadership and experiences with new technologies Pilot experimental solutions & deliver working prototypes Validate market requirements Test market readiness 250+ projects completed Recognized industry best practice Frost & Sullivan Certified Best Practice Innovation Passport: The IBM First-of-a-Kind Journey From Research to Reality FOAK accelerates the delivery of innovation from the research labs into the market 13

14 InnovationJam: IBM s online approach to large-scale collaborative brainstorming InnovationJam Online collaborative discussions for focused audiences ranging in size from a few hundred to hundreds of thousands Innovation events over a defined period of time to capture the pulse of the group or to solicit specific ideas to critical business or societal issues Jam Hosts and facilitators guide participants to build on each other s ideas supporting a meaningful exchange of perspectives by a focused audience around a shared topic Real-time text analysis and data mining to highlight emerging trends and distill actionable results 14 HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures

15 InnovationJam Example: Habitat Jam The World Urban Forum (WUF) was established by the United Nations to examine rapid urbanization and its impact on cities, economies and policies HabitatJam was the largest brainstorming event on urban sustainability bringing together not only NGOs, politicians and academia but the slum dwellers whose lives were directly impacted by this body Results: Over 30,000 participants from 158 countries generated 600+ ideas. 70 of these were presented and adopted at the WUF3 conference as its official platform "At the heart of the urban crisis is a failure to allow the full participation of ordinary people in the development of the city. It is my hope that innovative technologies associated with Habitat Jam will help bring people closer together to plan and develop truly human settlements. Mrs. Anna Tibaijuka, former Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Director of UN- HABITAT 15

16 Sector / Industry Teams Communications Distribution Public Financial Services Industrial Institute for Business Value The IBM Institute for Business Value is global team of 50+ consultants who conduct research and analysis across multiple industries and functional disciplines Energy & Utility Media & Entertainment Telecommunications CPG Life Sciences/Pharma Retail Travel & Transportation Defense Government Healthcare Banking Financial Markets Insurance Business Function Teams Strategy & Change Customer Relationship Management Financial Management Human Capital Management Aerospace Supply Chain Management Automotive Chemical & Petroleum Electronics Application Innovation Industrial Products Institute for Business Value (IBV) 16

17 Institute for Business Value IBV s thought leadership provides an original, researchbased point of view told from a client s business perspective Institute for Business Value (IBV) Examples of Thought Leadership Studies Future Agendas CXO Surveys 3 to 10 year industry and/or functional area outlook with action oriented next steps Example reports include the CEO Study, CHRO Study, CFO Study, and CIO Study 17

18 IBM Market Insight s Strategic Perspectives Team accelerates the understanding of new or emerging markets, and act as a catalyst for future growth. Market Development & Insights (MDI) The IBM MI Strategic Perspectives Team provides the initial foresight and insight for new and emerging market opportunities and competitive threats. This includes providing a Market Insights perspective Market Definition Potential Opportunity Drivers/Inhibitors Potential Segmentation Geographical Differences Competitive Intelligence Example Reports Future of Nuclear Energy Next Emerging Geographic Markets Consumer Product Goods in Rural China Climate Change/Energy & Environment Physical Infrastructure in Growth Markets Advanced Water Management Intelligent Buildings Smarter Cities 2015 Growth Strategy 18

19 Market Insight s Center for Applied Insights White Paper: 100 years of foresight: The importance of long-term thinking at IBM Market Development & Insights (MDI) The practice of corporate foresight helps the enterprise avoid strategic surprise and reduce uncertainty in decision making. It allows the enterprise to think through the consequences of unanticipated change, envisioning what might be possible and deciding what would be preferable. Authors: David Jarvis, Senior Consultant, IBM Center for Applied Insights Steve Rogers, Director, IBM Center for Applied Insight 19

20 The HorizonWatch Community was formed in 2001 to bring together all IBMers interested in understanding the future(s). Community: Horizonwatch Demographics This is a cross-ibm community of IBMers from all types of functions, divisions and geographies. Focus Emerging trends and technologies Conference calls Topics are presented to the community by subject matter experts Collaboration platforms Blog Discussion forums Bookmarks File sharing Wikis 20

21 Community Objective: Improve our collective ability to sense future disruptive technologies, business issues, trends and opportunities. Benefit of the Community: Diversity of the community means different perspectives, which enhances collaboration and sparks innovation. 21

22 HorizonWatch: 150 Conference Calls Since

23 Every year, an annual trends document is produced and presented to the community. Community: Horizonwatch 2011 Trends 1. Private Clouds 2. Virtualization 3. Social Business 4. Mobile Computing 5. Storage Trends 6. Advanced Business Analytics 7. The Personalized Web 8. Video-enabled Business Processes 9. Service Oriented Architecture 10. Sustainability & IT 11. Risk Management Source: Bill Chamberlin, IBM Market Insights via HorizonWatching 23

24 Other trend reports are produced and presented to the community. Top Trends in Digital Marketing For Marketing Budgets Continue to Shift Towards Online 2. Social Media Marketing Is Maturing (Slowly) 3. Mobile Marketing Poised To Take Off 4. Personalized Marketing: Customize To Each Individual 5. Social Video As A Marketing Tool Gains Momentum 6. Search Engine Optimization Gets More Complex 7. Marketing Analytics Helps Make Sense Of All The Noise 8. Real Time Web Assistance Connects Buyer With Expert 9. Online Privacy Concerns Continue 10. Digital Marketing Optimization Emerges As A Priority Source: Bill Chamberlin, IBM Market Insights via HorizonWatching Blog Post: Top Ten Digital Marketing Trends For Slide Deck: Top Ten Digital Marketing Trends For

25 As A Market Insights Analyst, How Do I Approach Trends Research? 25

26 In additional to traditional trend spotting, I leverage social media and communities. Scanning: Search to understand what people are talking about. Brainstorming: Two is better than one. Hundreds are better than two. Thousands are better than hundreds. Publishing: Posting content online helps establish my reach and authority Idea Development: Get feedback and improve my research Networking: Connect with other subject matter experts. Learning: Develop a better understanding of the potential future(s) 26

27 Sharing thought leadership content via a blog helps me develop my understanding of key trends and get feedback from readers 1. A Primer on Smarter Water 2. A Primer On Cloud Computing 3. A Primer on Nanotechnology 4. A Primer on Telepresence 5. A Primer on Unified Communications 6. A Primer on Futurists 7. A Primer on 3D Printing 8. A Primer on Scenario Planning 9. A Primer on the Website Personalization Trend 10. A Primer on the Consumer Market for Household Robots 11. A Primer on the Trend Towards Video-enabled Business Processes 12. A Primer on the Smart Grid and Intelligent Utility Network Trend 13. A Primer On Water Management Issues 14. A Primer on Advanced Business Analytics 27

28 Collaborate with me I can be found at the following social sites LinkedIn = Bill Chamberlin Thought Leadership Blog = Horizonwatching on Typepad Signal/Scanning Blog = HorizonWatching on Tumblr Twitter ID = Horizonwatching Facebook = HorizonWatching Online Newsletter = HorizonWatching Slideshare IBM Expert Network = HorizonWatching Google+ = Bill Chamberlin LinkedIn Group = Horizonwatching A Smarter Planet = Blog on Tumblr The InfoBoom Community = Profile Page 28 28

29 Thank You 29