Debt Stabilisation and Hotel Investment Feasibility Aiden Murphy, Crowe Horwath. 8 June 2015

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1 Debt Stabilisation and Hotel Investment Feasibility Aiden Murphy, Crowe Horwath 8 June 2015 Audit Tax Tax Advisory 1

2 Third Irish Hotel Investment Conference Discussion Points Debt Stabilisation What s happened to date? What impact has this had on the hotel sector? What s now left to be done? Hotel Investment Feasibility Why investors are entering the Irish hotel market? Why we need new hotel stock? 2

3 Debt Stabilisation b Debt Hotel Sector Debt & Changes in Room Supply Bedroom Supply 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25, ,000 No. of Hotel Bedrooms Gross Debt bn During the years hotel supply grew by 95% (or 29,282 rooms) Leaving an estimated 6.7bn of debt overhang in the sector by 2009 across 915 hotels. In 2009 c44% (or 26,000) of the hotel bedroom stock were struggling with unsustainable debt levels. 3

4 Debt Stabilisation Changes in Room Supply by County, 1999 to 2009 Carlow Cavan Clare Cork Donegal Dublin Galway Kerry Kildare Kilkenny Laois Leitrim Limerick Longford Louth Mayo Meath Monaghan Offaly Roscommon Sligo Tipperary Waterford Westmeath Wexford Wicklow Two thirds of new room supply added were outside Dublin k 1k 2k 3k 4k 5k 6k 7k 8k 9k 10k Source :Crowe Horwath Annual Hotel Industry Survey 4

5 Debt Stabilisation 6.7bn of Debt bn of Debt Receiverships Transactions New Owners & Funding Loan Sales Workouts Existing Owners via debt restructuring or refinancing 5

6 Debt Stabilisation Number of Receiverships by County Carlow Cavan Clare Cork Donegal Dublin Galway Kerry Kildare Kilkenny Laois Leitrim Limerick Louth Mayo Meath Monaghan Offaly Sligo Tipperary Waterford Westmeath Wexford Wicklow Total # of Hotel Receiverships : 142 Total # Receiver Hotels Sold : 98 Total # of Hotels Sales since 2009: 165 Bringing over 200 new owners to the sector

7 Debt Stabilisation Below is the breakdown of the 6.7bn of outstanding loans in Banks Remaining with Irish Market 3.4bn AIB Bank of Ireland Ulster Bank KBC/ Other Exiting Banks 3.3bn BOSI IBRC NAMA ACC/Other Total as at bn Target Sustainable Debt for the Sector c 3.9bn 7

8 Debt Stabilisation Solutions for Over Indebted Hotels Domestic Banks: AIB Majority of portfolio restructured with debt re-sized Bank of Ireland Supported hoteliers on an interest-only basis while waiting on profit recovery to determine strategy for parked/unsustainable debt IBRC Loan sales and receiverships NAMA Receiverships, consensual sales and loan sales International Banks: BOSI Seeking to exit market by refinancing, consensual sales and receiverships Ulster Bank Now focused on loan sales for hotel assets 8

9 Debt Stabilisation 2015 The Year of the Loan Sale Portfolio Name Vendor To Include Project Coney Ulster Bank 36 Hotels Project Nadal Ulster Bank 8 hotels Project Milner NAMA 3 hotels Project Venue NAMA 3 hotels Project Poseidon Lloyds Bank 2 hotels Project Crystal NAMA 8 hotels Project Trinity Ulster Bank 2 hotels Buyers of the Loans: Lone Star CarVal Blackstone Canyon Capital Goldman Sachs Kennedy Wilson Deustche Bank Sankaty Advisors Next steps following loan purchase: Existing Hoteliers Acquire hotel from new loan owner through debt refinancing New Owners Buy from the Receiver/Sale of the asset Loan to Own 9

10 Investment Feasibility 10

11 Investment Feasibility - Dublin 16,000 Overview of Hotel Profitability - Dublin Dublin exceeding 2007 performance 14,000 12,000 Increase of over 8k per room 10,000 Decrease of over 5k per room 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 PRE BUST YEARS OF DECLINE IBRs YEARS OF RECEIVERSHIPS START OF RECOVERY HOTEL SALES LOAN SALES Source :Crowe Horwath Annual Hotel Industry Survey 11

12 Investment Feasibility - Dublin Overview of Dublin Hotels by Location Performance for City Centre Hotels YTD April 2014 YTD April 2015 YOY Growth Occupancy 70% 76% +6% Average Room Rate RevPAR Dublin City Centre X 86 hotels 9,954 rooms Dublin Periphery Hotels x 66 hotels 8,649 rooms Performance for Periphery Hotels YTD April 2014 YTD April 2015 YOY Growth Occupancy 64% 69% +5% Average Room Rate RevPAR Source :STR Global Hotels in prime Dublin City Centre locations (D1,2,3,4) annual growth of RevPAR (at 17) is more than double that of the hotels located in the periphery of Dublin. 12

13 Investment Feasibility - Dublin Dublin Market Performance Y/E 2014 YOY Growth Occupancy 78% +2.2% Average Room Rate % RevPAR % Dublin Market Projections Total Room Nights Source : STR Global Occupancy Year m 78% Growth Scenarios for Dublin If growth of 5% p/a is achieved over next 5 years occupancy levels in Dublin by 2020 will be over 100%. Dublin requires over 5,000 additional rooms to cope with projected growth in demand over next 5 years. Dublin has set target for growth of c7% per annum in overseas visitor numbers as per Dublin Growth Strategy to If this target was achieved Dublin could need 7,000 rooms by Year m Over 100% 13

14 Investment Feasibility - Dublin Hotel Build Details Hotel Description Development Cost Requires total investment of 150 bedroom 4-star hotel 185k per room To include site acquisition, build, fit-out and opening budget 28m / 185k per room Hotel Location RevPAR for 2015 Estimated Profit Projections per Room Return on Investment for New Hotel Build Average for Dublin 87 14,300 p/a Not Feasible Dublin Periphery 62 7,900 p/a Not Feasible City Centre Location ,500 p/a Yes Source :Crowe Horwath Projections 14

15 Investment Feasibility - Dublin Clarion Hotel IFSC**** 160 Bedrooms Sold for 33m / 206k per room Hilton Hotel Charlemont**** 193 Bedrooms Sold for 30m / 155k per room New Supply to Dublin: Findlater House x 198 rooms Ormonde Quay x 170 rooms Pembroke Street x 108 rooms Camden Street x 143 rooms Summerhill, D1 x 362 rooms Additional 981 rooms in pipeline by 2017 Temple Bar Hotel*** 129 Bedrooms Sold for 28m / 217k per room Pearse Hotel*** 101 Bedrooms Sold for 14m / 143k per room What happens if there s no additional supply introduced? 15

16 Dublin Extension Considerations Hotel Location Dublin Periphery City Centre Location Return on Investment for Hotel Extension Yes Yes New Supply to Dublin: Gresham Hotel x 23 rooms Merrion Hotel x 20 rooms Fitzwilliam Hotel x 34 rooms Russell Court Hotel x 20 rooms Trinity Hotel x 50 rooms Radisson Hotel Royal x 50 rooms Additional 197 rooms 16

17 Investment Feasibility Regional Ireland 10k Overview of Hotel Profitability - Regions excluding Dublin 8k 6k Decrease of over 5k per room Increase of over 4k per room 4k 2k k PRE BUST YEARS OF DECLINE IBRs YEARS OF RECEIVERSHIPS START OF RECOVERY HOTEL SALES LOAN SALES Source :Crowe Horwath Annual Hotel Industry Survey 17

18 Investment Feasibility Regional Ireland Cork Market Performance Y/E 2014 YOY Growth Galway Market Performance Y/E 2014 YOY Growth Occupancy 77% +1.4% Average Room Rate % RevPAR % Source :Trending Occupancy 72% +2.5% Average Room Rate % RevPAR % Source :Trending The Cork and Galway markets are also showing growth in demand with occupancy levels over 70%. Cork and Galway have lower RevPAR levels compared to hotels on Dublin Periphery ( 55), therefore the cost of a new build in these locations may be unfeasible. Still feasible to consider extensions to existing hotels. There is little evidence of any pipeline for the construction of new hotels outside of Dublin. 18

19 Conclusions Financial institutions nearing end of resolving their problem hotel loans New owners and funders to the market 2015 year of loan sales Pace of hotels transactions in 2015 will be similar to 2014 Hotels on profit recovery path, with Dublin profit levels already exceeding 2007 profits If growth projections are achieved Dublin City will need an extra 5,000 rooms in next 5 years Estimated 1,000 new hotel rooms in the pipeline for Dublin city, not sufficient Fundamentals exist for new hotel build in Dublin City Centre Dublin periphery and Cork and Galway city based hotels could consider extensions to the existing facilities Location, Location, Location 19

20 Aiden Murphy Partner Restructuring, Advisory & Insolvency Bastow Charleton Member Crowe Horwath International Marine House Clanwilliam Court Dublin 2 Ireland Bastow Charleton is a member of Crowe Horwath International, a Swiss verein (Crowe Horwath). Each member firm of Crowe Horwath is a separate and independent legal entity. Bastow Charleton and its affiliates are not responsible or liable for any acts or omissions of Crowe Horwath or any other member of Crowe Horwath and specifically disclaim any and all responsibility or liability for acts or omissions of Crowe Horwath or any other Crowe Horwath member. 20

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